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Actually, now that I think about it, there are three games that have been claimed (13 Reasons Why, Civil War Generals and Ancient Roman Battles) that have gotten used in both games. Not necessarily indicative of anything, but it does somewhat limit the likely choices Pie would make from any of them.
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Alright, so Commuter it’s a 1X self-protective role. That definitely does stand out compared with the other roles claimed so far, and it’s probably the most dispensable of the ones listed so far. I don’t really see Earth as behaviorally sus for reasons I’ve already mentioned (his activity tends to increase when he’s scum), but I understand why the lack of activity would have most of us on edge.
Notably, that’s one of the games that appeared in Luna’s recycled role game (Moozer claimed Bookie from that game), so there was a slightly more limited set of options this game, regardless of who was picking them.
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In any case, I’m likely going to be absent for the next few hours. I’ve made my views clear and we’ve got time to consider.
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If he's decided to bow out and not defend himself, that's on him. We can give him until the last hour of the day phase before we lynch him, but I don't think we should keep him alive just because.
I agree. I understand the desire to not lynch someone who’s absent, but it’s pretty bad when he leaves on that note. I’m also not sure that it benefits us to get another claim if that’s where we’re going. If there’s a good reason to get Earth’s claim due to an absence of a viable lynch, then I’d consider it.
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@Savant
I mean, both are relatively inactive, but I guess there’s value in getting a claim over likely not getting one from Moozer. In that case, are we all good with just leaving Moozer out of the discussion until DP2?
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@Savant
I’m really not fond of getting more claims at this point, particularly if we’re already aimed at pushing Moozer for a claim. We’re up to 3 now and, much as I agree that Earth’s low activity should provoke some response, I don’t think we’re better off getting his claim this DP.
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@Savant
@JoeBob
Town RB is plausible, but also good cover for night actions that are more likely for scum. Suffice it to say that I suspect scum would not claim an RB if they actually had an RB, so it’s a slight town lean.
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@AustinL0926
Not really sure what you mean by this. If the majority of people voted for a VTNL, how could Casey stop that from happening?
Maybe I'm misreading the role, but it says that the number of votes on other players has to be tied. A single vote can place someone in the majority and avoid activating the Scapegoat. This is how it's written in that game, so let me know if I'm missing something.
You are the SCAPEGOAT. If there is ever a tie (no matter the number of votes) in voting at the end of a DP on a No Lynch or VTNL day, you will automatically be lynched.
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Realized I somehow missed out on giving my reads on WyIted. The kind of fluffposting he engaged in early was not unusual for him, and the brief tunneling on Austin is unclear to me. He's hard to get a bead on, so he's null for me atm.
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Not a particularly detailed set of reads from Earth, though I can't say I'm interested in pushing on him for more at this stage. His and JoeBob's lack of involvement in the DP stands apart, but both of them are pretty null to me.
As for my other reads by this point, I've given my thoughts on Austin's behavior through much of the DP, so I'd still say he's a town lean to me. Luna comes off similarly. There's always the possibility that Luna is just defending his scum partner, but a) I don't think Luna would tie himself this closely to his partner if he was scum and b) I agree with a lot of his reasoning and it comes off as town. If they aren't partners, I don't see why Luna would try this hard to push back on a mislynch.
Savant's behavior has been very off all game, but the Cop claim means he's in my town pile for this DP at minimum. That leaves four:
Casey's null to me so far. I'm not sure whether the claim is more likely to come out as scum or town, and I disagree that it's particularly ballsy. We have to satisfy a rather particular set of circumstances for them to end up dead as a result: the voting has to end in a tie without a clear lynch. Casey can always push things in a different direction to prevent that, even by their vote alone. It comes off as somewhat safe, but I don't have a solid read on whether they would be likely to claim this as scum.
That leaves Moozer and, as I think I've already made clear, he's my scumread atm. I don't doubt that he's actually busy, but the choice to leave for 24 hours and place a vote just beforehand that he doesn't have to defend in any way (and didn't explain when he gave it, not to mention running counter to his prior read) seems like it's aimed at hoping for a mislynch rather than anything helpful for town. So while I'm willing to push on either Earth or JoeBob for a claim, Moozer is my priority.
VTL Moozer
I recognize that he could present some claim last minute that would derail this, but that's a risk I'm willing to take.
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@JoeBob
Earth-is he usually this inactive? I mean he usually posts more than once in a DP, so this is odd.
At least from my perspective, his inactivity is, at worst, a null read. I actually give it the slightest of town reads because I just had experience playing with him when he was scum, and his activity was generally elevated. I suspect he’s just not very invested in games where he’s town, but I also don’t want to read too deeply into it.
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@Earth
@JoeBob
I do think it’s worth getting the coasting players involved at this stage, and I’d like to hear both their thoughts on the DP. Both of you need to engage with the DP more at this stage. I’d prefer not to lynch for inactivity like we did last game. With two votes on JoeBob already, I’m going to put some pressure on Earth.
VTL Earth
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@Savant
Calling it a night at this point. I've been sussing Moozer for a while, and frankly, so has Austin. As for seeking a mislynch on you, if that's his goal, it's not going to work. Doesn't seem like that's what he's doing, more like he's just trying to make sense of his interactions with you and considering different ways of viewing your behavior. It's a weird way for scum to behave, though it's also not particularly helpful.
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@WyIted
I know you are very careful not to insult people but can somebody else please give me their thoughts on Savant's poor logic. Some of the logic is a little bad and we are all guilty of that, but some is so horrible as to be laughable and this is from a guy who has deep posts on philosophy and some great insights on things like how to make voting more fair here.
I think it's a combination of some inflamed tensions early on, the belief that he had to claim early, and the fact that his role insulates him from a lynch this DP (I don't think anyone's going to pursue a lynch on an un-CC'd Cop without good reason). If anything, this behavior makes me townread him a little more, since my experience seeing him as scum tends to include his defusing tensions rather than ramping them up.
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@Savant
@WyIted
WyIted might be referring to the Invincible game, because that's what I linked to.
Alright. I'll note that he was the Bleeder in that game. Based on how he performed in that game, I doubt he's self-protective here, but that doesn't necessarily mean he's scum, either.
Another thing I should mention that ties a lot of this together imo is that when Austin and I were scum, he said that people tend to care more about how confident you seem than about how logical you are. In my opinion, that explains a lot of Austin's defense, in which he seems to prioritize coming across super confident and as if he is "winning," rather than about making a substantial defense.
I'll admit, you had me pretty well established as scum behaviorally last game. Not sure I'd call his defense super confident, but I'll consider this.
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@WyIted
Alright. I'll note that last game, he was simply absent for a majority of DP1 and then came back just in time to see the hammer. Not the game I would choose to assess his behavior, but hey, that's just me.
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@Savant
I'm referring to him attacking Moozer and the people voting against him rather than explaining why he himself is likely town. And of course he gives a reasonable-sounding reason for that, that's how scum Austin would OMGUS.
Like I just said to WyIted, I don't view this as a scumtell. DP1 is notorious for having limited behavioral reads shape the decision of whom to lynch, so people have two choices of how to respond: defensively, often by offering up some information to shake the lynch, or offensively, often by pushing attention somewhere else. If this was a later DP and Austin was actively ignoring information that suggests he's scum in favor of pushing on someone else, I'd agree with you that that looks scummy. In DP1 where the only information he can offer is his role, I don't blame him for pushing back, especially if he has an important PR. I wouldn't have blamed you for pushing back or trying to push attention to someone else.
So when you say that he started attacking Moozer... I just don't see it as scummy, dude. I think he gave decent reasoning for looking to him, and especially given Moozer's impending absence from the game, that's a move I'd expect whether he's scum or town. You can call it an OMGUS, but it comes from a rational position that makes sense regardless of affiliation.
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@WyIted
Yeah deali.g with some stuff for a minute but working on it. I find it odd though that you don't find his response to pressure as suspicious.
I'm going to leave it to Austin to address the larger response set, as I'd like to get his take before I give mine.
As for not finding his response to pressure suspicious... let me put it this way. Up to the point that you posted this, your reasoning amounted to "I have my reasons." Savant's reasoning was mostly based in frustration and seeing Austin's responses as efforts to distract, tactics that could either be town or scum from where I'm sitting. And Moozer's reasoning was that he wanted to bandwagon before he had to leave off the site.
So, yeah, I understand Austin's being frustrated when that's what he's dealing with. I understand why he might want to avoid claiming his role or giving into this pressure in any way. It's not how I'd handle it, but that doesn't make him scummy from where I'm sitting, at least not based on the games I've seen him play.
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@Savant
Austin's behavior is much more OMGUS than mine was, he's just avoided voting against Moozer so he won't be accused of attacking people for voting against him
That… doesn’t make a lot of sense. He saw indications from your play that made you seem scummy to him, not what I would call an OMGUS. And yes, people generally avoid looking sus whether they’re town or scum, and an OMGUS would not help him.
No matter how Austin flips, it's going to reveal something. If he's town, Moozer is probably scum. If he's scum, whiteflame is probably his partner.
I disagree that it’s that straightforward in either direction.
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@AustinL0926
@Savant
@WyIted
Yeah… I really don’t like this wagon. Can someone explain to me what Austin has done that makes him sus beyond some perceived buddying of Luna over a strategy that largely worked last game (I’d say town lost for other reasons)? I particularly find Moozer’s presence on this wagon frustrating after he townread Austin behaviorally. I don’t mind him changing his mind, but if anyone is just following someone else’s lead, it’s him.
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@Moozer325
Those reads weren't the greatest. They were really just based on some gut feelings, and I missed a lot of stuff somehow, like Savant claiming the doctor.
Savant claimed Cop.
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@Savant
I wouldn't say I'm "convinced" Austin is guilty either, but I've got as much reason to suspect him of being scum as anyone else, if not more. Who would you rather put on the chopping block, if it was up to you?
Right now, I don't have a good target. Given that we have two claims on the table, I'd prefer to get one more before the DP is up. Right now, I'm leaning towards Moozer on that front, but I haven't fully reread the DP so that could change.
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@Savant
Honestly, I'm not convinced.
Early in the DP, Austin comes off as having a similar but distinct perspective to Luna's. There might have been some buddying going on there, but he made some distinctions that I wouldn't have expected from scum. His pushing on you later in the DP seemed largely reasonable to me, even if statements like:
"Savant, in your own words, can you take a guess on why I'm scumreading you for that comment?"
were a little more prompting than I'd like. It's almost trying too hard to yield a specific reaction, but it's also not what I'd expect from scum Austin based on what I've seen of him. His responses to you since don't strike me as particularly stand-out either. Like I said earlier, I've had some experience seeing Austin antagonize someone in an effort to push a given perspective. Maybe if we'd gotten a little more time to see that play out before you claimed, I could have seen some evidence of that, but in the absence of that, he looks null to me.
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@AustinL0926
I think giving insights into how you see certain behaviors as you’re going through the DP is fine - it’s a way of addressing the DP as it has progressed rather than in its totality and it can uncover things others haven’t mentioned.
I think posting a full set of reads that happens to exclude a very relevant piece of information, and then responding to that piece of information being presented to you with “I’m still catching up,” doesn’t quite work the same way.
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@Moozer325
As a general rule, it’s best to post reads after you catch up. Saying that you’d effectively consider Savant to be your top scumread after he claimed Cop stands out, especially since it came a while after he claimed.
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@Savant
I think you're already assuming a lot.
For one, scum can always have a Strongman. No amount of protection will stop them. I'd say the possibility that you would have been a target for night actions if you had claimed you were hard confirmable (which you essentially are) was significantly less than the risk you take on by just claiming the role outright. You are now a clear target.
For another, like we did in a previous game as scum, the problem isn't solely whether they kill you. They can always just continuously RB you every single NP.
As for being accused, I get the frustration, but handling it this way ends up putting you in the crosshairs regardless. The only difference is who is aiming at you. I disagree that having two votes on you meant that this wagon was always going to get larger and force a claim out of you. I think a softclaim would have gotten at least Austin off of you, and I don't think anyone else would have joined the wagon if you had. I know I wouldn't.
As for Austin, I'll read through the DP and consider whether there's something there. I've had instances like this several times over the last few games where I scumread someone because they were being frustrating, Austin included (and I was right that time). Maybe there's something there this time, but I also don't want to jump on him just because he pushed a little harder on you.
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@Savant
I'm the cop. Go ahead and lynch me though.
...seriously, why would you claim with two votes on you if that's your role? I'm not doubting that you're actually the cop because, frankly, you'll be CC'd if you aren't (I've looked through the games and a lot of them have a cop), but you shouldn't be claiming with two votes on you if that's your role since that necessarily makes you a target for the NP. I get that refusing to claim might have gotten more votes on you, but you would have been better off saying you could effectively confirm yourself through your claim later.
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I apologize for vanishing all day - I’ve spent a lot of the day staring at a screen for work and trying to focus on this DP to boot is giving me a headache. I’ll revisit this when I’m off for the day and see if I’m able to get any behavioral reads.
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Anyway, it's late, just wanted to get out some thoughts before calling it a night. Pick this back up in the morning.
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@AustinL0926
I honestly think we're all overestimating the chance of scum fakeclaiming here tbh. Like can anyone tell me what would be the benefit of doing so as compared to scum just claiming their real game?
I was thinking about this last game when Earth decided to fake claim his game. I'd say there are two benefits.
First, if the game you currently have limits your options or overlaps a lot with other games, faking a claim nets you opportunities to select from a different set. It requires analysis of the game you're choosing and some analysis of the others in play, but depending on those factors, there may be a valid reason to switch.
Second, though this came up much later in the last game, is the possibility that town could use it to focus their PoE a bit by considering the ways scum in a given game could have manipulated their results. Casey correctly called out that I was probably the Ninja in the last game because he noted that there was a Ninja in my game and he hadn't seen me move when I attempted to perform the NK. It's not proof positive, but it does allow for more than just guessing about probable scum roles if scum claims their own game. If they claim a different game, that may be a means to misdirect lynches instead.
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@Savant
I realized I miscalculated the odds earlier because I failed to account for scum already knowing two games in use. If I'd asked about two games at the start, I would actually have a 53% chance of identifying one game that wasn't already in use. If I was scum trying to gain towncred, I would probably just claim my actual game, but it does make me slightly less confident about Luna and Earth.
Point taken, I hadn't considered their own claims as part of the number, either. So it was a little less risky to fake a claim early, though as you say, I think scum are pretty likely to just give their own game since it still gives them a clear set of fake claims. It has its own risks, but it makes sense in its own way.
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@Lunatic
Why is that? I generally have the same paranoia with whiteflame, because I feel he plays similar as either affiliation for the most part.
Also, don't blame you.
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@Lunatic
I guess it should be stated that SOP claims, like Miller, Paranoid Gun Owner/Granny, and negative utility roles in general should probably claim.
Figured that was a given, but best to put it out there just in case.
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@AustinL0926
Or they could have just claimed their actual game, right?
My point exactly. There’s a benefit to locking players into their game, though, so I’d say that still works for us.
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@Lunatic
The only way someone who claimed early could be scum, is if they gambled on a 15% chance dice roll and happened to be correct. Which isn't entirely impossible, but very risky, and very unlikely.
I’d amend that to say “The only way someone who claimed early could have faked their claim”, since someone could have just claimed their actual game and still be scum.
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@Lunatic
Luckily this isn't the case, all three of the people I was worried about doing this have claimed. It's much less likely that joebob, moozer, casey etc are going to be able to pull off an effective fake claim based on lack of experience though, so I am mostly okay them coming in late. They will be found out by POE easier if scum.
Point taken. I’m generally averse to giving scum information wherever I can avoid it, particularly in a game where they can ask questions like this, but you’re right that there are benefits to at least locking some players into their games.
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@Savant
I mean, point taken, but speaking as someone who was scum in the last game, I didn’t hesitate to claim my own game. Cost me a bit later, but we should be careful how much we read into that.
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@Lunatic
The die is cast, so guess we’ll just have to go with it at this point. Don’t love the idea, but I hope you’re right.
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@Lunatic
I’m not convinced we get the same benefit as that game, and I do think it offers scum more safe claims if they can just feign ignorance (or simply be absent) at the start of the DO, but fine, at least it’s somewhere to start.
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@Savant
I understand how it makes the initial claimers look. What I’m worried about is that it’ll be hard to tell if the later ones are sus, or just late to the party.
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Fine, whatever. I guess since early claims will be less sus, I might as well just give mine now. I’m The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time Mafia.
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Alright, sincerely, why the fuck is everyone pushing for claims this early, especially given this from Pie:
“To be somewhat fair to mafia, I have given them the opportunity to try to guess games that I have not taken characters/roles from. They will have two such opportunities to ask this question at any point, and I will truthfully answer each time.”
You are literally feeding scum information that will make it harder to track them down later. If you want claims, do it in a way that doesn’t make this super easy for scum to game.
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@Savant
I did notice that. When you denied posting so quickly I did question my memory a bit, but I stuck to my story since it kept pressure on you and I figured you were scum anyway.
Yeah, you had my number, as did Pie for obvious reasons.
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@Savant
I did suspect a rolecop as the reason I wasn't getting killed at night. Surprised you never used it on me since you and wf knew I was trying to draw the night kill.
We decided it wasn’t worth the risk of him getting tracked to you. Probably should have just gone for it last NP, but it seemed unimportant by then. Our gambit of having Earth use it on me worked out, and we figured out Moozer early, so I think we made the right call, but I was confounded by your role.
Oh, should say another reason I suspected you was that I was targeted n1 and last game you were annoyed with everyone letting me live through the first day.
I picked you because I thought you were the Cop. You claimed to be hard confirmable, and when I looked back through that game, it was either that or the Messenger and I didn’t think you’d claim the latter was hard confirmable in one NP after the last game. When you didn’t die, I assumed Pie has Doc’d you. Still assumed that until we killed him, actually.
Also were you actually online 20 minutes before posting? I thought I remembered you posting very quickly, and if I'm right about that, then I'll feel smart.
I wasn’t lying, I did spend about 20 minutes writing that up while online. I hopped off immediately afterward, which would probably be enough to make me look scummy anyway.
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@Casey_Risk
Damn, that ended up working out perfectly for you. I was thinking about tracking Moozer instead, but I settled on Earth. Well-played.
You chose your targets perfectly for our purposes, that was just luck. You honestly picked well, just so happened that we used our roles to throw you off at the right times.
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Also, regarding my claim, I know I fucked it up. Two reasons for that.
One, Earth has already claimed Lucy Heartfilia. Was planning to claim Dreamer, but realized too late that we overlapped our characters, so I went for the far more sus claim.
Two, I realized too late that there was no Cop. There were enough clues early in DP2 for me to recognize it, but I put the pieces together too late to fake that claim.
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@Casey_Risk
Earth, did you rolecop Whiteflame because you were expecting me to track you?
Yep. Didn’t know if he could Role Cop me, but asked Luna and when he said yes, we went for it.
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@Savant
I assume you figured out my role (or at least that I could self-protect) and that's why you didn't attempt to night kill me?
yeah, we assumed you were lying to draw the NK, thought you were just doing it to protect town but it was actually for your role. Well played on that front, did not suspect you were TP.
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