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@Savant
I don't know if I said something to offend you, but it wasn't my intent. I didn't mean for things to get super hostile, so I'll respond to a few general points and leave it at that.
Honestly, I don’t mean to come off meanly or with hostility. That wasn’t my aim, so I apologize if that’s how it came through - I think I’ve gotten too used to responding to Austin in this way. Like you said, I suspect we’ll be revisiting this in DP2, and I’d rather just leave off here as well on good terms.
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@Savant
Considering there was next to nothing new here aside from my just summarizing my thoughts on how PoE aligns with my previously expressed views, I didn't think it would help to ping you since we'd be revisiting the same points, but fine, let's do this.
It's almost the end of the day phase, but Barney is the only one you give a behavioral read on out of all the people you mention. Is he acting particularly townie, or is there some other reason you seem to have ditched behavioral reads almost entirely?
So... I guess you're just ignoring the bases for my other reads? I've said before that behavior matters, but I think the role and character claims tell a stronger story. That's the basis for my PoE. If you don't want to respond to that and instead keep on focusing on behavior, I guess that's your prerogative.
Seems like you've been breadcrumbing this a bit without saying it outright. I don't have a problem with moving this argument to the next day phase, since there's been little town support for lynching either of us, but I will note that I have disagreed with a good chunk of your analysis up to this point if it wasn't already obvious from our back-and-forth earlier. If I'm on the table for a lynch, then I'll say right now that you should be as well, since I don't think Austin's read was unjustified. He outed me as scum in a previous game, he outed Pie as scum in a previous game, and now he suspects you. I suspect we'll get to this more in dp2, but it's worth mentioning.
...Breadcrumbing? I've stated outright several times that you're my pick for the lynch this DP. Several other people have said you're not under consideration, but I've made my position clear for a long time now. But thanks for confirming that any conversation over this is just rehashing previous points. I don't mind being considered for a lynch, but I'd argue that my role at least has a potential benefit for town, and thus there's a reason for me to stay alive at least one DP to use it. Even if you believe Austin, the notion that I'm the best option for a lynch this DP doesn't hold up with my claim, your claim, and Chris's claim.
We've already established that it's a pseudo-CC, not a CC. I don't see a reason to equate them. You've given your reasoning for why you think the claims are very similar as opposed to kind of similar, since we agree that similar roles can and have existed in the same game before. There's a method to your madness there, but you're also not the one assigning roles. Moozer is, with maybe some input from Pie. I see no strong reason to assume that his reasoning for role assignment would be the same as yours.
I'd say it's almost as close to a CC as you can get without claiming the exact same role. The only difference is that your role is slightly weaker - there's no "kind of" involved here. I've given that reasoning already and explained how other roles you've suggested are similarly "pseudo-CC's" from the LotR game aren't nearly as similar. It has nothing to do with how I, personally, would assign roles and everything to do with his demonstrated track record. I'm not going to revisit those points here because I seem to be the only one interested in this lynch this DP. I'm not expecting to dramatically shift the direction of the lynch at this point, but I am going to make my view clear.
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As for this push to lynch me, much as Austin seems to have it out for me, it's worth thinking through both how this logic works and what to prioritize. I'll put it this way:
You'd have to start with the assumption that scum was given fake character claims. Assuming they were, if you're sussing me, then at minimum, you're at least sussing one of the other three Champions. No one should be reasonably considering a lynch on Earth and BK, so it's between Chris and me. If that's what you want, even though I'm opposed for the above stated reasons, fine: lynch Chris this DP, and if Chris flips scum, I'm the obvious next pick. If Chris flips town, then we revisit this next DP and people can make their case for why they think Moozer would have given scum just one of the four Champions as a fake claim while giving the other three to town. Give me the opportunity to use my BG just in case it can be useful because, at minimum, we know the Granny isn't helping us.
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Just going to include some details not yet added:
Dashboard
Player Claim Description Role NP1 NP2 NP3
Savant Purah (fake ID for senior discount) Bleeder n/a
Lunatic Roham (the patriarchy) King DP1() n/a
That leaves two roles that are yet to be claimed. I still really don't love the lynch on Casey, chiefly for the reason that I still don't believe Moozer would hand out 2 or 3 of the 4 Champions to town and give the fourth to scum as a fake claim. I'd sooner believe that Barney was scum, since Zelda could conceivably be fake claim offered to scum and he hasn't full-claimed yet.
Since it's been discussed at various points over this DP, I would not consider the Earth lynch. The combination of him being the sole claimed un-CC'd investigative role (Barney or Austin could be another, but the Cop specifically is not a likely role offered as a fake claim to scum) and the fact that he's a 2X shot, which mirrors BK's 2X shot, is such a weirdly specific number of shots and I just don't believe that either Moozer would give Earth a fake role claim that mirrors a town claim so well. Either BK and Earth are scum, or neither are, and I don't see it as likely at all.
Luna's going to be confirmed town, and I've already made the case that JoeBob is likely town. I simply don't buy that he's scum after that CC and I don't have good enough reason to disbelieve his role claim.
That leaves four: Barney, Savant, Austin and me. My read on Barney based partially on his character claim (Zelda is still an MC, even if I can see the possibility that she might have been given as a fake claim) and behavior so far is that he's pretty townie, so I would put him as lowest priority among my PoE. Austin is next, given that he's claimed a confirmable role. I've had my differences with him this DP, but I can understand giving him an opportunity to confirm himself (though in case I don't survive the NP, note that his role confirmation doesn't necessarily confirm his affiliation). So, yes, I'm still narrowing this down to Savant even if I leave my distrust of his claims and discount the CC.
So, yes, my pick is still Savant, whether we're talking PoE or suspicion based on his role and JoeBob's CC. If we're still not considering him, then Casey is, at minimum, the one we can lose with the least impact to town.
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@Best.Korea
As I see it, the roles that basically CC one another (Bleeder and Soldier) should be the first ones we consider as strange when we note that there are four protective roles. Both are solely self-protective. I've never seen a game where a Bleeder and a 1X BP are both included. I've seen plenty of games where there was a Doc and a BG. This is not a first, nor is it an outlier of any kind.
I'll also note that I most definitely would not have included that "100% success rate" in the description of said role. After asking Moozer about it and digging through the Wiki, I've noted that there are some instances where a BG has a 50-50 chance of working as it's supposed to work. I've never seen it played that way, but it happens. Why would I specify that in the claim? Why wouldn't I just claim it's a normal BG, which is what it actually is?
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Well, Austin’s made one thing clear: continuing this back and forth isn’t worth the effort. If anyone else wants to sus me for being one of two claimed protective roles in this game, be my guest. I’ll respond to you after work.
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@AustinL0926
I'm not scumreading you for pointing out that specific mistake of mine, and you know that. I scumread you for everything else this DP. More strawmanning please.
That being said, you seem awfully sensitive to votes on you. I wonder why...
You knew what you were doing when you said this. Trying to put it back on me for calling you out is just fucking rude, dude. You can say it wasn’t scumreading, but you’re trying to build a narrative with it that relates to how you see me as scum. At least own that.
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@AustinL0926
I care that you posted a long response to me, gave specific reasons why you sussed me, and voted me in a series of posts without tagging me on any of them. That’s basic common courtesy. You know how the tagging system works on this site, so yeah, I’m a little frustrated that you posted that much and conveniently kept me out of it. You want to scumread me for calling you out for it? Fine, whatever.
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@Best.Korea
Scum manipulating night kill would save confirmed town player, where as it stands, its likely a confirmed town player dies next np.We have to lynch casey anyway, so if its a mislynch, its probably an unavoidable mislynch anyway, but yeah, I guess too many things can go wrong if we are put at 4 - 2 instead of 5 - 2.So, are you in favor of voting casey this dp then?I dont see what other solution we have. I tried to think of ways to confirm her, but its such a horrible role.
I don't like it, but it's looking more and more like it's the only option anyone else is considering at this point.
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@AustinL0926
First off, I don't know why you'd give me all these responses without fucking tagging me. That's bullshit dude, especially when you're putting a vote on me.
As for the rest of this, I'll respond to the relevant points when I'm not in the middle of prepping samples for work.
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@Best.Korea
That would still save a confirmed town player from night kill.
You're talking about using this to get information. If the information we get leads to a mislynch next DP, saving a town player during the NP will not have been worth the cost, since it will likely put town at 4-2 after NP2 (my death during NP1 + mislynching Casey next DP + an NK during NP2, assuming that Casey is town of course). That's MYLO, and we'll gain absolutely no information from my death, so we're relying on results from investigations from those two NPs, all of which could have been manipulated given that scum know Earth's role, to provide that info. I don't see that as significantly better than having a solidly townread player going into DP2 (Luna after he uses his role to lynch someone this DP), using my role to potentially block an NK (which could save us a loss this NP rather than just sacrificing me for information that scum can manipulate), and getting at least some reduction to PoE (honestly, prefer removing Casey by lynch to just get her out of the potential scum pool). It gives us the same number of NPs to get information, and the only difference is it could potentially put us at LYLO by DP3 instead of MYLO.
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@Best.Korea
No. If they NK you, then only 1 player will die at night, and it wont be any of confirmed town players. So we will know scum acted.
That assumes scum use an NK. Scum can always just refuse to NK and use the resulting kill from Casey to make the case you’re making: that my death was the result of an NK and not her role. My point is, scum can use their NK (or refuse to use it) to manipulate how we view the outcome.
I think you would get notified if you were role blocked, but yeah, I guess that is an issue which might give us problems, but then they couldnt role block cop.
Just because I’d get notified doesn’t mean I could convince you I had been RB’d. I don’t think they’d do this if given the option to RB someone else, but we also don’t know what manipulation they have for the Cop result.
If scum has both redirect and role block available in a single night, I guess that would mess up our plan, but it seems kinda too strong if they have that.
They only need one or the other, though both would make it easier.
I guess at this point, unless we are going to go after claims from Barney or Austin, we very much have to lynch casey then. We cant afford to have unconfirmable and unable to get investigated role in late game. So since we have to lynch her at some point anyway, I suggest this dp, because it leaves more targets for scum.
I’m not convinced she’s the best choice just because she’s the most straightforward, but no one wants to lynch Savant, so here we are.
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@Best.Korea
Especially since we’re talking about this now, there are several easy ways for scum to taint the outcome. They could just NK me, which seemingly “confirms” Casey. If they want to get me killed, they could RB me and use my lack of action as a pretense for getting me lynched next DP. They could redirect me to make Casey look sus. And all that just considers what scum can do. We know that Moozer has made town roles that manipulate town actions.
So I’m not super confident in pursuing this, particularly because scum know, but also because “confirming” Casey could just as easily backfire.
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@AustinL0926
Do you not find it strange in the slightest that whiteflame straight up and said "I'm confirmable" and it turns out his role, is, for all intents and purposes, equivalent to any visiting role (which conveniently, scum always has)? And that he clarified his role right after Earth revealed what flavor of investigative role he is?Like whiteflame basically has free reign to do whatever he want as long as his NK target and visit target is different if he's scum now. I think whiteflame is smart enough to know what "confirmable" is, and this isn't it.
Trying really hard to push attention onto me, aren't you? I said confirmable with help (fun that you keep leaving that out) and then, when asked to provide more details, stated that confirmation would be difficult even with help well before I full claimed. And for some reason, you're scumreading me for claiming after Earth did. I was only asked to do so after Earth claimed - I wasn't going to just full claim to look townie.
Also, this is all pretty rich coming from someone who has so far refused to claim their role at all, as though that's somehow less sus than claiming after someone who was being widely scumread for his behavior.
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@Best.Korea
I dont think thats easily confirmable, since scum often has visiting roles as well. Not to mention that scum can also fake tracker role, its not that uncommon, but I am not sure if it could happen here.I guess its only confirmable if you die protecting your target, which when 1x, I dont find likely.So yeah, I think its not very confirmable, however, we can make use out of it to prevent confirmed town players from dying. This could be important for us, so I am not putting you in scum pile or anything like that yet. But its important that you use your role to protect confirmed town player.
I didn't say it's easily confirmable, and I agree it isn't. And yes, I plan to do so.
Dont say who you will protect, just make sure its lunatic or earth. Its gonna be a gamble, one that we might even win.
Got it.
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@AustinL0926
Somehow, I think you're creating a false dichotomy. I believe that this isn't Joebob's real role based on the evidence I've given (which I note you haven't responded to), and I also believe that Joebob, who we both know to be cautious as scum, would be unlikely to CC Savant on the basis of poor-risk-reward ratio. I have to weigh two likely yet mutually exclusive propositions here and I'd like to see more behavioral evidence to tip the scale.
I did respond to your "evidence," but you chose to ignore those responses, so fine.
You're tying yourself into a knot here. You believe that isn't JoeBob's actual role, but since you believe he wouldn't CC Savant, you're granting some probability that Moozer created this role, otherwise the CC wouldn't shake your conviction. Fine, so that long post establishing all the reasons Moozer couldn't have done it was not nearly as solid as you made it out to be.
That's... not confirmable in the slightest. Or at the very least, it's no more confirmable than a role like Barney's decoy last game was. How do we know you're not framing or lawyering or stalking your target? Backtracking on your claim looks pretty scummy imo.And your "role" is OP because if it really is 100% success rate, then you essentially guarantee that a crucial player, such as Earth, lives for a night (regardless of other interfering factors like roleblocker or strongman, I suppose).
You've clearly been been very selective in your reading of my posts up to this point if you think I'm "backtracking". I said this in post #278:
I’ve never seen my role given to scum, but it’s also going to be very difficult to firmly prove, so I doubt I’ll ever be fully townread once I claim it.
So I acknowledged difficulty confirming it. What did you want me to say? That I'd probably only confirm myself in death?
Also, you and I have very different concepts of what "100% success rate" means. It means I protect my target at the cost of my life. How the fuck is that OP compared to, say, a doctor who protects their target without cost? Sincerely, I don't have any idea how you view my role as OP, especially since you acknowledge that it can be stopped or circumvented just like any other protective role.
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Just to clarify, my role is just the same as it is listed here:
It's standard BG. No more, no less. I pick someone to BG each NP. I die if they are the target of the NK. End of story. That's why I pointed out that it was odd that the justification included protecting myself, and when I asked about it, I found out that the role itself doesn't protect me at all. I cannot, in any way, protect myself using this role.
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@Best.Korea
@AustinL0926
I guess that's technically confirmable...? Honestly I'm becoming a little bit skeptical of all the people claiming "confirmable" roles if this is what they mean.Oh, and that role is overpowered.
I said it was confirmable with help. I would have to be either tracked to my target or watched at my target, or I'd have to just die protecting someone, though my death automatically confirms my role whether I used the BG to guard someone or not.
Also, how the hell is this role OP? I die using it to shield someone else.
How is your role different from a doctor and how is your role confirmable?
As I told Austin, I die as a result of protecting someone else. It's a one-time effect if used on the right person, whereas a doctor can use their role to protect people successfully multiple nights. Also, see above for how to confirm it. It's not absolute confirmation because that doesn't confirm the effect, but it does confirm who I visit.
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@AustinL0926
Alright, I'll reduce it to the very basics, then, though I think I was responsive to every assumption you listed.
My issues with the way you're framing this are two-fold.
One, I think it's odd that you're calling out the improbability of Moozer designing this role, but ignoring the fact that someone did, whether it's Moozer or JoeBob. One of them either got it from this site and took these elements out to create the role or got it from somewhere else. It happened. Probability is 100% because JoeBob claimed it. So when you argue that "the balance of probabilities doesn't support" my theory, I sincerely don't get what you mean. The role exists in this game as either an actual claim or a fake claim. Someone designed it. Your argument therefore must be that Moozer is less likely to have designed it than JoeBob, which you have in no way justified.
Two, if you really feel that "the balance of probabilities" suggests that JoeBob created this role out of whole cloth, then I don't understand why you're delaying voting for him. Saying that you want to see more behavioral indications of his scumminess when you're already so invested in this narrative doesn't make sense to me. Why would you go this far in-depth explaining the specifics of why you view him as scummy and then wait to pursue an actual lynch on him? Why wait? Just because we can afford to wait at this point (mislynching twice in a row would put us at 3-2) doesn't mean that is the optimal course of action. Also, I don't know how you get "low null read" if you truly believe that there is next to no chance that Moozer crafted this role. That does not track from your previous statements.
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@Earth
@Lunatic
Alright scum had to have fake claims then. one of these major characters is scum. Austin, whiteflame can you role claim? I have a feeling I know austin is but I think we just mass role claim here because im pretty sure their would be a town cop, didn't expect it to be earth though. One of those major characters has to be scum. Which takes austin and whiteflame back off the "confirmed town list"
Alright, given Earth's claim (which... come on man, at least don't claim you're not confirmable, that's part of the reason you've been pursued all this time for a claim), I agree that it makes sense to just out at this point.
I'm the bodyguard. The way it's framed in my PM is that I have a phantom shield (had to look that up) that I can use to protect others. As for the justification, it's honestly a little confusing, since he said initially that the shield is used to protect myself and others, but it doesn't protect me at all. It's just, as he put it, a "100% succes rate" BG that I can use on anyone (it's not limited to a single character like Sam's was last game and I'm not required to use it).
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@Barney
I still don't really understand the basis for sussing JoeBob, at least not given his claim or his decision to push the CC (which necessarily puts him in the crosshairs if we lynched Savant and he flipped town). If this is a gambit to reduce the level of the CC, as you suggest, then all it will have succeeded in doing is putting off his lynch one DP.
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@Lunatic
Suffice it to say that I don't think JoeBob is scum. I agree that Link is unlikely to be a fake claim offered to scum by Moozer, even if we assume he gave fake claims, I just think it's pretty clear that there is one scum between JoeBob and Savant. At this point, I have every reason to believe it's Savant, but since there seems to be no appetite to lynch him this DP, I guess Earth is the next best choice given his intransigence.
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Anyway, I spent way too long reading and responding to that post, so I'm going to call it a night here.
To be clear, I don't mind considering a lynch on Earth at this point. At minimum, I think he's earned it through anti-town responses to pushing on him for a claim.
What I don't understand is why people seem to be shoving the Savant/JoeBob situation off as a non-issue. I disagree with him, but I can better understand why Barney's pushing a lynch on JoeBob than just ignoring it entirely. I know we don't want to lynch Savant this DP and it doesn't seem like a lot of people scumread JoeBob for his claim (I certainly don't), but we have the information this DP to know that it's likely one of them. If we're not lynching one of them this DP, they need to be top of the list next DP.
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@AustinL0926
Decided to break this up into two posts because it was getting long.
But let's get into the actual analysis you've given on JoeBob because it's kind of maddening to read.
Moozer got no input from Pie on the role names
So... because there's a role name that sticks out as distinct from what we know about how it's usually played, Moozer got "no input from Pie on the role names"? This DP started roughly 24 hours after the LotR one did. They had far less than 24 hours to confer over the setup for this game, given that that DP ended several hours later and Moozer would have had to prep the basic idea for this one during that time. So your argument is that Pie must have used that time to rename and carefully craft roles instead of, you know, focusing on tackling balance issues and larger issues with the setup? This is where his attention must have been?
Moozer ignored the exact same role being completely different in a previous game
I'm not assuming what Moozer did or did not do. It was in a previous game. He used a different version here. That doesn't mean he ignored the previous one - he could have just forgotten that it was in a previous game or decided to go a different direction with it knowing it was in a previous game.
Moozer decided to make a role immune to night kills
It's one-time use. Not immunity. It's basically a 1X BP with slightly less utility.
- Instead of going to either Mafiascum, Mafiauniverse, or Mafia.gg, which all list the role as "Bulletproof"
- He went to Mafia42
- I'm not even sure how this happens honestly. I searched for "mafia game role ideas", "mafia game role list", "mafia role that can survive kill", and I didn't get a single hit from that website. (Feel free to verify)
I cited Mafia42 as an example of the Soldier role done similarly to JoeBob's claim. I didn't say that Moozer actively cribbed from this exact site, but it's an example of the role in question played the way JoeBob describes it. I'll note, though, that either Moozer or JoeBob got this from somewhere or made it up. Someone got it from somewhere, whether they pulled it from a site or straight out of their ass.
- Moozer then didn't even implement the role as it's described
- Since that role apparently is also immune to negative actions, which Joebob never mentioned
So... because Mafia42 describes it a certain way... and it wasn't cribbed directly from Mafia42 in its entirety... obviously Moozer couldn't have created this role? Sincerely, dude, what is with this logic? I brought up Mafia42 as a potential source for the claim. If it was, it wasn't used verbatim by either Moozer or JoeBob, depending on who fashioned it. If it wasn't used by either of them, then it's irrelevant. What are you even trying to prove by pointing this out? Sincerely, I'm at a loss.
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@AustinL0926
So I'm going to start by addressing this:
As much as I'm skeptical of Joebob's claim, I also agree that it's a stretch to assume he'd so confidently CC. Considering neither Savant or Joebob are particularly subtle as scum, I'm fine with letting them live for another DP and forcing them to participate more, which will probably reveal their alignment sooner or later.
Much as I really don't like Earth's behavior this DP, and you address that in your next post, I really don't love this attitude. You seem to be accepting that this was a CC of sorts, and that one of them is likely scum. I don't know why the automatic response to that is "let's delay finding out which it is." I understand pushing on Earth, and I'm frustrated with his play, too, but whether you believe one or the other between Savant and JoeBob, at least one of them should be up for consideration for a lynch this DP, even if we end up going for Earth.
And this strikes me as odd because you just made a long post responding to me about how JoeBob's claim comes off as scummy because it doesn't match what Moozer would do. Setting aside that it's mod psych... scratch that, double mod psych because you're also thinking about what impact Pie would have had on the game, these suspicions should be leading you towards an NK on JoeBob. I may not agree with it, but I'd understand that a lot more than I understand this "wait and see" approach to behavior. At the very least, you should want this out of the way so that we can decide which of these two is scum if you truly believe everything you're saying about how there's no way Moozer would have crafted this role.
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@Earth
I'm going to give you nothing today.
This is either extremely anti-town or scummy. I can't tell which.
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@Barney
VTL JoeBob
I... really don't get this. So, you think that JoeBob as part of a scum team decided to essentially CC Savant knowing that, when Savant flips town, he would be next on the chopping block? I get that the Soldier claim is a little off, but it's not like this reading of the claim doesn't exist on any major mafia website, nor is it obvious that Moozer would crib the role from a previous game if he chose to use it.
As for claims being a bit off on the justification front, people have been saying that from the start. It doesn't come off as particularly townie to me, since scum would be aware of the disjoint in their own justifications.
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@Earth
@Best.Korea
Still, lets not get completely distracted by this. We do need Earth's role claim. We went the other path too quickly.
That's fine, we can work on him as well. Earth, you need to either claim or come up with something better to do because you're either going to be a concern in this DP or the next if you give us nothing.
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@Savant
I can't visit people, so I can't die via the granny.
So there’s less to distinguish you, thanks for clarifying.
To be honest though, I don't think Moozer is super clear on "pseudo-cc's" and that mods are supposed to avoid them.
Maybe not, but I find it odd that Pie wouldn’t have spotted this.
Also, Sam and Merry&pippin function pretty similarly. Become the target of some other plyer.
Yes, but they function distinctly, even though they are both involuntary. Sam is the automatic BG for Frodo, taking NKs aimed at him. Merry&pippin function as unwilling targets for a town role directed at someone else. One affects only scum (anyone who uses an NK), the other affects only town. One affects only kill actions, the other affects all visits. And both have very different results as well, with the first functioning as a means to protect another player while the latter functions for negative town utility by messing with roles.
They are not pseudo-CCs.
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@Best.Korea
I can almost confirm joebob because the way his role is described is very similar to way my role is described, but the way savant described his role stands out. The key word being "mafia kill" instead of "night kill".Its an interesting choice of words, and it seems same was used to describe joe's role and my role.
I’ll have to trust you on that one. The pseudo-CC itself stands out more than anything. If JoeBob is town doing this, then Savant’s claim looks scummy. If Savant flipped town, JoeBob necessarily looks scummy.
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Bodyguard and doctor are similar roles, though they're mainly just the same broad category. Sam and Merry&pippin are pretty similar through.
They’re not pseudo-CCs, though. BG self-sacrifices to protect a target, effectively a one-time (if successful) use at the cost of the user. Doctor has no sacrifice and is only limited by the number of shots they have. They’re both protective of someone else, but that’s the only overlap.
What we’re talking about here is self-protection. The two roles are clearly self-protective, and function off of a similar mode: must be the target of some night kill. The only difference in this case is effect, i.e. survive one more DP or just survive. You can argue that you could activate your role via the Granny, so that is a distinction as well, but your modes of action are basically the same. That’s a pseudo-CC.
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@Earth
@Lunatic
@AustinL0926
@Savant
Dashboard
Player Claim Description Role NP1 NP2 NP3
Savant Purah (fake ID for senior discount) Bleeder n/a
Lunatic Roham (the patriarchy) King DP1() n/a
Whiteflame Daruk (rock guy/ghost) semi-confirmable
Updated with the new info. The Soldier role is "confirmable" in a sense, though surviving an NK could be achieved through multiple means, so it's not a straightforward confirmation as he suggested.
To address the follow-up statements:
This is clearly not the role on mafiauniverse, which functions as a Vig, but it is the role as described on some websites, e.g. https://mafia42.fandom.com/wiki/Soldier. It's not clear from my reading of either that role or the one JoeBob claimed that he can survive any NK, just the mafia NK. Worth asking about, though I'll note that even if it does soak up the Granny shot, it would have to be confirmed by JoeBob that he no longer was BP in order to confirm both of them, and we don't know if he'll receive a message to that effect.
Looking back at the list of roles from the LotR, I don't see any roles that CC one another, though I'm open to someone explaining how they do. Here's the link: https://www.debateart.com/forum/topics/11086-lord-of-the-rings-mafia-dp1?page=3&post_number=73. I can't see two redirecting roles @Earth, so I don't get that point.
As for whether Moozer would use this role, I think it's plausible. He clearly had a set of roles he was selecting from for the first game, so to claim that his help from Pie meant that he would only consider roles Pie would pull from doesn't follow. Neither does pointing out that Moozer was in a previous game with a Soldier. Moozer is crafting this one. He didn't craft the Chess Mafia game.
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@JoeBob
Ok. I am soilder. I can survive one mafia NK.
Yeah, that is a pseudo-CC. I don't know why Moozer would give town an effective town BP and a Bleeder.
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@Earth
Buddy, I have no clue lol. I got no idea what Moozer gave mafia.
Speaking as the person who may be most opposed to choosing you as a lynch right now, that's not helpful. Maybe try re-reading the DP and getting some behavioral reads if you have no ideas based on the given claims. You've got time, use it.
Otherwise, just claim, dude.
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@Earth
I definitely did not intend for that double negative lol...I feel like claiming would put Town at a disadvantage
I think BK is indicating what I'd like to hear from you at this point.
Let's assume you're not going to claim the unconfirmable role you have, which will lead many to think you should be the target of the lynch.
Necessarily, you think you should not be the target of the lynch. You don't want anyone else to claim based on your previous post.
So, who do you think should be lynched at this point and why?
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@Earth
Keep in mind that Greyparrot was once a Mafia Mason. However, I think Moozer is doing things by the book, so I assume you are town. Assuming you are telling the truth of course.
I do recall that. I wouldn't have said I hadn't seen my role appear as town, or that it would be difficult to confirm, if I was the Mason.
I really don't know why people act like activity on DART matters, but I think nobody shouldn't full claim today. I don't know why people are sussing Casey's claim, and it's pretty obvious they are town. Again, people should keep in mind that Moozer is a new mod.
So... I'm not sure why you're opposed to claiming (you say "I think nobody shouldn't full claim today," which is a double negative when I think you meant only a single negative based on the rest of this line and the lack of your claim in it), or why you think that Moozer's being a new mod influences the veracity of yours and Casey's claim. I think he's town, too, but this is the time you should be claiming, regardless of the mod.
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I think that is risky in some cases, but I’ll give mine:
I’ve never seen my role given to scum, but it’s also going to be very difficult to firmly prove, so I doubt I’ll ever be fully townread once I claim it.
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@Earth
Yeah, despite my belief that all four of the Champions are likely town, you’re the biggest outlier in terms of behavior, timing of your claim, and being unconfirmable. A full claim is in order.
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@Savant
Not really. Giving all the obvious claims to town members would make the game very unbalanced, so I'd be more surprised by there not being a spot carved out for scum.
I agree. I don’t think that a mod, particularly someone new to modding, would specifically carve out a portion of a specific group of four and give two of them to scum as fake claims. I’d sooner believe that Link and Zelda were given as fake claims.
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@Savant
That leaves behavioral reads, which I haven't seen brought up as much. The good news is that we still have a day to figure out who's been acting the most scummy.
I agree, behavior should be a factor. I think there are other factors worth considering, and I’m not certain how much we should assume regarding the existence of fake claims, so I’m trying to keep that in mind as I consider the existing claims.
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@Best.Korea
I agree that its a bit out of ordinary, but its not that unusual for scum to be given both fake claim of role and fake claim of character to one player.The main problem with casey is that unless granny dies, or game ends, or town player dies, we will never know.
I agree with the latter point. I don’t think that’s a basis for lynching him now, but I get it.
While it is not too unusual for scum to be given that kind of info, I just don’t buy that the fake claim just happened to be one of the four champions. Maybe it is, but that’s an oddly specific spot to carve out for scum, and if true, that would still suggest that the other scum is not among that group of 6, since they would not have received a fake claim at all if they got a full fake claim.
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@Savant
Claiming to be one of the six doesn't automatically require a fake claim if they specify their role late or have more general information about what roles are available to claim.
I don’t get this take. So you’re arguing that they don’t require a fake claim because they can specify their role late (doesn’t help with the character claim) and may have some information about what roles are available to claim (again, doesn’t inform the available character claims). The point was that claiming one of the six either requires a very ballsy attitude that risks CC or it requires a fake claim. That holds regardless of available roles.
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@Best.Korea
Casey, on the other hand, could have been given fake claim of character, and granny is a cover to not get investigated.
Maybe, but think about what has to be true for Casey to fake claim like that:
He would have had to receive a character as a fake claim that yours, mine and Earth’s seem to confirm should be in this game.
He or his partner cribbed the Granny claim from the previous game, knowing that Moozer had a more than decent chance of including it in this game, and fake-claimed it in the hope that it could give him cover from investigations and lack of NKs while simultaneously allowing for a significant chance of being CC’d.
Maybe that’s true, but I don’t buy it as likely.
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As for reads, I’ll provide my thoughts at this point.
As I see it, at least right now, I’ve got problems with pursuing any of the four Champions. We would have to assume that they were given as fake claims for me to believe that either Chris or BK are scum. Chris claimed too early for that to just be a shoot from the hip fake claim, and BK knew before he claimed his character (he was second of the four to do so, if I’m seeing this correctly) that the other two were taken. I don’t buy that he’s that ballsy, either, and based on how he’s softclaiming his role, I’m solidly against a lynch on him or efforts to get a role claim right now.
Earth is the only one I’m slightly off about because he claimed so late, as well as claiming to be one of the six rather late (though two people claimed to not be one of those six after him, so it’s still pretty ballsy even if it was nonspecific). I’m willing to revisit my reads on these three later, but for anyone who is keeping score, if we assume Moozer gave scum fake claims, the only realistic way two people within this group could be scum is if he gave out two as real claims and two as fake claims. I don’t buy it. I’d sooner buy that Link and Zelda are fake claims.
Speaking of whom, JoeBob and Barney. I’d say I’m pretty null on both. JoeBob says he’s confirmable, so I’ll at least give him the chance to confirm himself. Barney, like me, says he’s semi-confirmable, probably meaning he has to be tracked or his target watched to get a result (that’s what I meant for mine). In any case, these are lynches I’d consider for DP2, but not now. I don’t think scum would make the choice to claim two closely linked characters unless they got them both as fake claims, and even then, I find it hard to believe they’d put themselves in the position to be taken down together.
That leaves three. Luna is the most townread player based on his claim because it’s a role that can be verified this DP. That’s enough for me to write him off as a target unless he somehow fails to do so. That leaves Austin and Savant. I don’t know what the confirmable role is that Austin has, but it’s more than we’re getting from Savant with the Bleeder role, which just barely makes sense and will almost certainly not be confirmed (scum have no reason to target him given that he’s not a PR of consequence), not to mention it functions as a justification for his surviving multiple NPs.
Also, Savant’s reads are consistent with what he has been saying, but they don’t make a lot of sense to me. Chris’s role was in the last setup Moozer made, so it should at least be a plausible role to have in this game. I would absolutely understand if he sussed the claim in that game, but given the plausible CC on the claim, the only way this makes sense is if scum received fake claims including both character and role. It’s possible, but pretty unlikely, that Moozer would hand two of this particular set of four over to town, hand one or more as fake claims over to scum, and give them role claims to boot that mirror claims from last game. That’s what we’d have to assume to believe that Chris used a fake claim, as well as BK, Earth or me receiving a fake claim from that same pool.
I don’t think Moozer would go directly from not offering any fake claims to offering two fake claims that other claims suggest are real (seriously, two of the four Champions when the other two must be town?) and provide them along with at least one role from his previous game to make it plausible, but I guess if we assume that all this is true, I can see how it might have ended up this way. I just don’t buy that Chris’s relative absence and BK’s focus on theme makes them more likely suspects.
And yes, I know I’m focusing on claims more than behavior. For the time being, though, that’s where my thoughts are at.
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@AustinL0926
Yeah, considering he’s probably the most townread player atm, I doubt he makes it that far, particularly if his role can be used in that way. Scum have every incentive to kill him if he doesn’t use it.
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@Savant
Just realized something. Couldn't we vote for whoever Luna tells us to, and then he gets to keep his power for later? Still puts the onus on him to prove his role tmrw.
I don’t really get this logic. Why delay the use of his role? Using it now reduces PoE pretty effectively (yes, I’m assuming the role is town - scum being able to use something like that is incredibly OP), and I don’t see it doing anything better in a future DP. Delay just invites suspicion.
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I'm Daruk. I'm confirmable, but I'd require help with that.
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@Lunatic
That makes it your lynch to decide, so it’s mainly a question of what would better inform it. I’ll leave that to you to decide, since I have a hard time believing that a mod would give scum a role that can unilaterally (you said “unanimously,” but that doesn’t make any sense since that term means that you’re getting agreement from everyone, not that you’re making the decision solo) decides the lynch.
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@Best.Korea
Agreed. I think we can start with a claim from Luna and go from there.
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