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@JoeBob
@Moozer325
I don't think it's whiteflame, mostly based on behavioral stuff, so that leads me to maybe consider joebob on equal terms with WF. IDK. Can someone remind me why he's safe?
I thought it was pretty obvious: Savants role tells us there is a Cop (hence the Godfather) and a Tracker/Watcher (hence the Ninja). Scum wouldn’t have been given those roles if town didn’t have at least one member with the ability to perform those investigations, and no one is claiming those roles.
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@AustinL0926
I feel pretty confident as well, but I'd at least like to give him a chance to post. Like you said earlier, if we reach the last 24 hours, then I'm good going ahead with the vote regardless.
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@Moozer325
Wait... are we still waiting on Moozer? The DP started over 24 hours ago at this point.
You've got to get on and at least provide your night actions, dude. This isn't helping.
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@JoeBob
didn’t someone use their ability on me to prevent me from dying, or was that someone else
Luna says he used his role on you, and I think we can assume based on what he has said about his role that that would have prevented you from being NK'd. It's also clear that Vader was the target of the NK based on the fact that he's dead, so Luna's protection didn't matter in this case.
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Alright, finally have a moment. Doesn't seem like Moozer has hopped online yet, so I don't have much to add from my read on him last DP. The RB on JoeBob certainly seems convenient given that he was told to track Moozer last DP.
Also, no one's mentioned it yet, but it's surprising JoeBob's still alive. Scum have an RB and could have used it on Luna again to take him out. Not that it tells me anything about alignment, it's just an odd choice.
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Just remembered that since my VIP went through, it’s confirmed he’s not Ascetic. Last thought for now. Wife’s pissed I’m on my phone.
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Anyway, I’m hosting a dinner party, could only post a couple of times. I’ll be back in an hour.
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@JoeBob
well cuz if my action failed wouldn’t that mean he’s ascetic? Or would that mean he just didn’t do anything’s
It means your role was somehow prevented. Since Luna was RB’d last DP, I assume that you were RB’d, rather than your target being Ascetic, at least it’s not the most likely explanation.
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Apologies for the delay on my posting today. It's been a rough week at work (one of my coworkers is out, so I've been shouldering twice the load with a large volume of samples), but now I have some time.
At this point, the townreads are pretty straightforward.
Austin is confirmed town. Like Barney said, I do not see a world in which Pie would have made scum lynchproof. It would be incredibly bastard modding and I don't see any likelihood of that. The only possibility here is that he has some other role that would also survive four votes (e.g. Loved - and yes, after a night's sleep, I realized we should have put one more vote on him just to check), but this gambit of his screams town.
Luna is strong town based on his hammering Austin. We'd have to assume that Luna had a lot of information as scum to know that he'd survive this, which I just don't buy. More importantly, I don't buy that the several pages of interactions he had with Austin were staged, hence the strong townread.
Vader is also pretty strong town. His Victim role is not something we can confirm, but the fact that JoeBob copped him innocent makes it hard to see him otherwise - we'd have to assume some manipulation of the result (possible, but unlikely during the first DP - it seems like scum didn't know JoeBob was an investigator based on the Earth NK) or that JoeBob is faking his role, and in the latter case, that would make Vader town. I've had a hard time reading Vader behaviorally in previous games, but there's enough evidence to put him in the town camp pretty cleanly.
JoeBob is a town lean. No one else has claimed an investigator role, which is the main thing going in his favor. Apart from that, the mistakes he's made over the course of the DP come off as townie, particularly his misidentifying the target of his Cop result. There's some possibility that he's just playing up his mistakes, and the Krishna claim is definitely an odd one (the only god among the claimed names and a weird one at that, given that the name Vasudeva is that of Krishna's father, but also the fusion of those two dieties is called Vasudeva-Krishna, so... maybe?), hence the lean.
That leaves Moozer and Barney.
Moozer is a tricky one. I was admiring his play last game, particularly as we got to the later stages, because he was playing far better than I'd expect for someone new to Mafia. Honestly, I could understand how Pie thought he might have been coached, and I was already fairly certain it wasn't him. So to see him slip into more noob choices, like hopping on and off the wagon, as well as continuing to push on me long after I had claimed, come as a bit of a surprise. I can't tell if this is just more of his inexperience peeking through or if he's playing that up now that he knows he could be the targets of suspicion. And with the Gambler claim, it's going to be difficult (if not impossible) to confirm him.
Then there's Barney. Based on these last couple of posts and the lack of defense he's offering, I'm second-guessing myself a bit, but some of his behavior has certainly been scummy. Pushing for consecutive lynches on Luna and Austin is anti-town at best, and I didn't understand his reads as we were leading up to the lynch. He's also claimed Decoy, which seems like a role purpose-built to explain visits.
I'm willing to vote either of them at this point, but I can see why people are pushing on Barney. Given that he seems fine with it, if only for the purposes of PoE, it's fine by me as well. VTL Barney.
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I'm fine leaving things here on this surprisingly positive note and picking it back up in the morning, so I'm going to hop off for the night.
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@AustinL0926
Lunatic is confirmed town. I'm x1 Lynchproof.
Well played.
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@Lunatic
I guess it's your call at this point. I can see how Barney's advocating for individual lynches being significantly more anti-town, so I'll keep that in mind for next DP.
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@AustinL0926
Honestly, while that breakdown gives me a good idea of where you're coming from on this, I think it involves making so many assumptions about Luna's play that it feels more like Barney's lynch last DP. I can buy that Luna would do everything he could to look townie as scum and that the CC might serve those interests. I have a much harder time buying that scum, which again had the opportunity to ask Pie about two role claims of their choosing, would actively decide to hide information about their role the following DP rather than upping their towncred by claiming.
I recognize that your leading the wagon on Savant also increases your towncred. Hell, I'll grant you that it increases it by more than the CC if we look at that in a vacuum, though I think there's enough other evidence to consider here. I'll grant you as well that Luna has pulled a similar sort of belligerence as scum (though I can remember games where he did so as town). We have at least some indications that both of you are town and, right now, I think it's more likely that both of you are. But each of you is going out of your way to make this a "me vs. him" situation, so that's where the rest of our attentions have been focused.
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@Moozer325
Don't think your off the hook tho. I still totally want a claim out of you.
...but I did. It's been mentioned multiple times.
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@Barney
Your role would be much better if scum didn't know.I tactically disagree with your choice to not protect yourself. Anyone might be scum, and getting them to kill themselves would be epic.
Also, wanted to address this before I get back to reading. I think what you're assuming is that I could force scum who is committing the NK to become the target of said NK. I asked Pie about that, and he said that the role wouldn't work that way. I would still be killed.
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@Lunatic
@AustinL0926
Alright, trying to get my thoughts together, and since the attention is on Austin, I'm going to start there before dinner.
The way this back-and-forth between Luna and Austin has shaped up comes as a result of Luna providing his extended thoughts on Austin in post #61, where he mainly gives reasons why he still considered Austin potential scum, and Austin's frustration over Luna's decision not to full claim. I understand the reasons why Luna clarified his thoughts on Austin and why he's not outing his full claim. I don't think Luna's clarifying his role meaningfully helps town given the CC (I don't think he'd do that to his own scum partner), and I don't think it clashes with my claim.
That's where this should have ended, but then Luna gets frustrated that Austin's continuing to push on him, and Austin calls for more votes on Luna before we start this now prolonged push on Austin. I don't know what reasons Austin has for sussing Luna at this point (he mentioned having reasons earlier, but hasn't posted them yet), but Luna's my strongest townread at the moment based on the CC. I can see some possibility of him CCing him for the towncred, but especially given that scum could ask about two specific roles, I don't buy that he would work this hard to cover it up afterward.
So it's really just a question of whether I think Austin is town. Given that Luna's been hinting at an unknown issue with his role for a while, I think it's anti-town to insist on the claim, even though I understood the initial impetus. Pushing then to have himself lynched to test the resolve of the people on his wagon seems more likely to end in two dead town than anything else. I see it as more likely that Austin is just venting his frustrations poorly, but I could see how the role could have been designed to dissuade a lynch and this behavior is at least detrimental to town. Luna's right that he's not one of the five brothers, but neither are Vader or Barney and at least Austin's claim is the commander-in-chief for the Pandavas. So, at least right now, I can see a better case for pushing on him than anyone else, though I've still got to go back through the DP and write out my other reads.
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@Lunatic
Suffice it to say that I'm coming back to this just now and still trying to process all of this. What I was responding to from you earlier wasn't so much that you were scumreading him - having re-read the post, it didn't come off as scumreading - but just the long explanation of how Austin designed roles that kind of look similar to the role Savant claimed. I agree that he designs roles that bear some similarity to Savant's, so the logic makes sense now that I look it back over, even if it felt like a lot to post for just second-guessing a townread.
I know you've since posted more behavioral reads on Austin's responses, particularly in response to your VTL, so I'll dig through them in more detail when I get home. On its face, I'm not sure why Austin would try to make a statement by taking you out with him if he believes you're both town, but I'd like to have a closer look at these interactions before I come to any conclusions.
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@AustinL0926
Alright, take care. I have some other reasons for sussing Luna that I detailed above, btw. Take a look at those when you have time.
I've read through them and I agree he's stretching. He also seems to be hedging a lot in that analysis. I'll have to re-read his and your thoughts before I post mine in full, though.
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@Barney
Who did you each target last night and why?
I didn't target anyone. The role would have given me the opportunity to force scum to block for me against the NK, but as soon as Savant was lynched and confirmed guilty, it just became a way for me to survive the NK at the cost of another townie. I didn't see a reason to potentially sacrifice someone so I could become Vanilla.
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@AustinL0926
Alright, I'm going to work on a set of reads to post later (probably after work at this rate), but I don't really buy that my role is even a quasi-CC on Luna. Mine is self-protective, whereas his role seems to have something to do with protecting others.
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I promise, I'll catch up on the DP and other claims after I eat something and give my eyes a chance to rest.
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Sorry about the delay, guys. I've been slammed with work all morning. If anyone's familiar with microbiology, I've just been sitting at my desk counting plates for the last 3 hours straight, so I'm having trouble focusing my eyes enough to see the screen atm.
In any case, I'm Arjuna. As the favored student of Drona and one of the few surviving commanders of the Kurukshetra War, I am the VIP. I can target someone and they effectively become by BG for the night until said BG dies, then I lose my ability.
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@AustinL0926
I get the order. If others are fine with that, I'm good.
Anyway, long day at work, so I'm going to call it a night. If they both claim overnight, I'll claim first thing in the morning.
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@Moozer325
Odd, that doesn't match the role I remember from Mafia Universe, but your role was already distinct with the 1X Commuter aspect. I get why you visited Luna since he'd claimed a protective role.
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@Moozer325
Just a quick claim on what I did last night. I thought Luna had a good chance of being killed, so I visited him. If someone saw me do that and is wondering why, that’s why.
So... wait. Does the Gambler actually visit someone or do they just make a bet on whether someone will die?
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@JoeBob
I said wrong name, I saw savants name and then put him down in the post🤦♂️ that’s on me
Like I said, makes much more sense. Just make sure to check that before you post next time.
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@JoeBob
I SAID WRONG NAME.I MEANT VADER🤦♂️VADER IS INNOCENT
That... makes a lot more sense.
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@JoeBob
Honestly, I'm not even sure how to take this. You outed yourself as the Cop to report a result on an already lynched player who we knew was scum and was the odd night Godfather based on the OP. Even if you had targeted him, I honestly don't know why you'd out that you did it.
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@JoeBob
savant is innocent
...Wtf dude? He was lynched. He couldn't have been your target.
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@AustinL0926
With only a few people unclaimed, I think today is the day to finish claiming.
Point taken. I can wait for Barney to claim first or just get it over with.
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@Lunatic
@JoeBob
HUGE favor. If he had claimed (and I would have pushed him 100% this phase) he probably would have been mislynched. Then per his role, we would have probably gotten a second mislynch.Mafia killing him was an insane favor to town. I am guessing he was targeted because he was one of the few unclaimed and they were power role hunting. Mafia are absolutely screwed now lol
Given Savant's role, scum were probably hunting for an investigative role. Poor choice.
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Well, scum just did us a big favor. Never would’ve bought that Deceiver role if Earth had claimed it. Anyone got results?
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@Savant
I'll even offer to be the one to hammer Austin if anyone suspects both of us. If he's telling the truth about who he is, he'll take me with him.
I believe that if you flip town, we'll be considering Austin for next DP. That being said, it's pretty clear you're not on a scum team together (he's been solidly on your lynch from the start) and his claim seems plausible and townie to me given how early he outed. So, no, won't be going with that plan.
Anyway, I'm headed to bed. If you're still alive by morning, we'll keep doing this.
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@Savant
The wagon may be riding on your vote, so I may as well try to negotiate with youI get Austin and Lunatic wanting to lynch since they were the first to accuse me and he's not going to just back down. Not what I think is the logical thing to do, but I understand it.However, I don't understand why it's in your interest to join this wagon when you could just vote for no one and stop the lynch of a claimed doctor. People might be annoyed with you, but better to lynch no one than to risk killing the town's only doctor.
I think there have already been a number of good reasons to sus you behaviorally that Austin has already brought up, but I think it's worth mentioning a couple of things that set me off apart from that.
Given what we've seen so far of the existing claims, it's just not all that likely that there's a Doctor. Pie hasn't been using the usual standard claims for anyone that we've seen, and even if there ends up being one or two, it doesn't seem like he's going for standard protective roles. It also just isn't a very good match for your character in particular, who probably fits a BG better.
But I'd say what's getting to me most is this push to no lynch. You've shown in previous games a pretty solid understanding of the need to get as much info out of the first DP as possible, yet you've been breadcrumbing since early in the DP that you're fine with a no lynch just because we don't often hit scum. It seemed defensive from the get-go, and much as I understand hesitancy, I don't understand throwing away the lynch entirely. Even if all we gain is some PoE, it's beneficial, though it seems like we'll get more than that this time around.
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All this talk of BLTs is making me hungry. But if we've got to BLT someone, it's gotta be Moozer.
🥓🥬🦃 Moozer
In any case, I'd like to get Luna's thoughts on Savant's claim before we go ahead with a lynch. I'm still not fond of lynching a claimed and not CC'd Doc, but I haven't seen another suggestion that makes sense and I'm not for pursuing more information this DP. We already have more than enough claims.
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@AustinL0926
I buy Moozer's claim. It fits mechanically with my role, which is a day killing role - hence, Pie might have wanted a night protective role to balance it out.It's also suspiciously specific, too specific for scum to be fakeclaiming imo.
I don't agree that its specificity makes me townread it. Scum have had plenty of time to figure out fake claims at this point and craft claims with knowledge of what's already in this game. He mainly reads as town to me for his desire to out himself early and his doing so unprompted at this point. He has shown a habit of doing this as town and I doubt that he'd be this open as scum.
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@Moozer325
The way I would justify it is that the commuter doesn't have anything to do with the role, and it's just a reward for guessing right. Think about it, what reward would you have instead?
I don’t have a good answer for that because I’m not trying to design the role. It’s a decent protective perk, and Pie might just have needed more protective roles, so it’s plausible.
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@Savant
For what it's worth, I do think Pie is stretching a bit with these role justifications (maybe to balance the game). Moozer's character connection is a bit odd as well.
His role is a bit strange. The Gambler connection makes sense, though from what I’ve read, he’s far from the only character who gambles quite a bit in this story. The Commuter aspect I don’t really get. The character himself is pretty major, but given how many claims we have at this point, I don’t think that’s very telling at this point.
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@AustinL0926
My guess is that Savant panicked under pressure and used his question to ask Pie for a fakeclaim. Doctor seems like a natural attempt at a fakeclaim, since it's simultaneously fairly common but also unlikely to appear in this particular theme.
Maybe, though I also don’t want to autolynch a Doc. Almost did that with BK a couple of games ago when he claimed Doc and looked behaviorally scummy and it turned out he was town. I’ll wait to see if there’s a CC or near CC, then decide.
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@Moozer325
…why would you claim? We already had plenty of claims on the table and you had no votes on you. I get that you said this is what you wanted to do early in the DP, but it’s still giving away too much info.
Also, why the 1X Commuter? I buy the Gambler, but what makes the Commuter make sense? The role usually comes with a 1X Vig reward, just seems odd.
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@Savant
Fine. I'm non-self-targeting doctor.
Ugh, why would you specify that you can’t self-target?
Also, how does this make sense for your character? He’s a warrior who died fighting a lot of people. Doesn't seem protective, certainly not a Doc. It might make some sense as a BG, but unless Pie was really hurting for protective roles, I don’t really see it.
Wouldn’t be surprised if this got CC’d.
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@Savant
Yeah, I’m going to need that role claim at this point. If there’s a good reason to hold it in reserve, fine, but it’s not reason enough to risk a mislynch.
VTL Savant
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Only have a second, but I didn’t see that push on JoeBob earlier. Sticks out as scummy, will at least want a role claim before deciding on the lynch.
No one else claim at this point.
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@Lunatic
@Savant
Alright, I’m still trying to read into all these characters. I agree with Luna that there’s some opportunities in having scum claim in a more restricted fashion, though not because of the potential for them to be CC’d. If anything, I’d say that’s less likely this game because scum apparently have opportunities to run fake claims by Pie. I think we stand to gain more info not from individual character claims, but how well they work with their associated roles, especially now that we suspect scum has fashioned theirs and are likely to have stranger role/character matches as a result.
It’s still tough to get any actual info from character claims alone, though. I initially thought there would be more of the major characters from the Mahabharata in this game, particularly the five brothers. They may just not have been claimed yet, and some of these characters do seem like they’re rather important (particularly Dhrishtadyumna), but that alone isn’t providing much information, particularly with Abhimanyu and Ghatoktach on the table, neither of whom seem all that central to the plot.
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@AustinL0926
Any reason for the strangely formal tone of this post?
Because I felt bad that he'd responded to me several hours ago and my focus was drawn away to future posts, particularly after I'd asked him to provide that info.
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@AustinL0926
Pushing on inactives is fine. That being the only substantiative contribution to the game is not.Also, his role claim did get him killed - he mentioned an additional aspect of his role but refused to clarify it, leading scum to believe he was hiding some uber-powerful late-game power.IMO it's not pointing out the problems with themesplit itself that's the problem, it's the strange tone - almost like he was hedging his bets - as he said it, which strikes me as odd.
Points taken. I'll give it some thought and make a decision after work regarding who would be the better target to get a claim from. Earth's relative inactivity stands out, though at least he did post recently and provided his character's affiliation and some minimal reads. JoeBob's posts have been pretty fluffy, and I'll note that the Battlebots game you referenced was the one game where he was scum. I could honestly stand to get a character claim from Savant, JoeBob or Earth, though I'd like to cut off further claiming after getting it - I don't want to give scum too much insight into characters and their likely roles and going into NP1.
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@Vader
@ILikePie5
My apologies for the late response, got caught up in work.
So it seems like anything that can be defined as "Negative" is anything that interferes with or manipulates the results of a given role. I'll need to think on whether there's some other role that exists in more of a borderline state on that, but I think I get the gist from your list of roles. Thanks for clarifying, and thanks to Pie for addressing the question through you.
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@AustinL0926
I'd like to understand this push on Savant better.
Savant was not the first person to push on inactives (that would be me). I recognize that he did it shortly after you said you scumread him, but considering that you're the only person to do it so far, I have a hard time believing that he's just trying to distract attention. I also don't agree that his role claim got him killed - he claimed Miller, so that role claim certainly isn't what killed him.
I do agree with you that it's kind of odd to point out that scum isn't going to claim they align with the Kaurava's. It's especially strange because that's only a plausible theme split at the moment. That being said, I think that his statement speaks to what we know about scum having knowledge of certain characters and roles being in the game, and might use that perceived theme split to their advantage. It's a bit of WIFOM thinking, and I think he should have been more straightforward in how he phrased it. I know I used to do that all the time and it got me killed fairly often whether I was scum or town.
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@AustinL0926
Any thoughts on the above? I'm valuing early claiming more this game because the theme seems difficult to quickly research.
I’m a bit more hesitant to base my reads on early claims, especially given that scum can ask Pie directly about two characters and two roles of their choosing. There are so many characters to choose from to begin with, and the roles that have been claimed so far are not particularly risky claims for scum to go for, but my gut read for people who claim early is still slight town.
As for Luna, Earth and Savant, I’ll have to read back through what they’ve posted so far, don’t have a read on any of them yet.
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