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@Lunatic
@Vader
@ILikePie5
I'll tag each of you to read the above. Someone, give me a better explanation for how this all went down than "Barney role-copped Earth," which is the best I can come up with.
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I recognize that people have other valid reasons to consider him, even if I feel most of them are either mod psych or just sussing a weird role (we've been down this road before). And I recognize that some of my thinking on this was initially focused on reading into responses from Austin a little too deeply.
But we can and should consider his claim, his choice of target, and his results. If someone can explain how all those things make as much sense with him being scum as they do with him being town, and I can make sense of your argument, then I'll hammer.
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Alright, so at this point, I think it's worth spelling out the series of events that lead me to townread Barney, since the explanation is kind of scattered at this point and I want to see some direct responses.
At the beginning of the DP, I stated that I had received a "chess engine" and had used it to find that Earth was innocent.
Shortly thereafter, I was informed by Austin that the role I was given had some extra elements to how it works. I provided some of those elements: that it doesn't count as an "active action," and that the role wouldn't be affected by RBs or redirects. I specifically excluded an important element: that Motion Detector and similar roles would not work, either, which suggested that I my use of the "chess engine" would not result in my movement to my target.
Later in the DP, Barney claims a role that somehow monitored my movement and, if I had moved, would have allowed him to use a paired RB. It doesn't matter if the role is the Motion Detector, it matters that it functions in a similar manner: by informing the user that I had (or in this case, hadn't) moved. He stated that I had not moved.
That seems pretty straightforward to me. I'm not assuming any bastard modding, I'm not assuming the use of a given role based on what was sent to me by Austin, I'm only stating what happened and what was claimed. It seems pretty straightforward if Barney's town.
Now, let's assume Barney's scum. That would mean that he saw my claim at the beginning of the DP and made the decision to select a role that would tell him if I had moved. Based on the information I had provided up to that point, that would have been a supremely ballsy move. He knew I had used a role like Cop on Earth. He knew that that would likely result in movement on my part. He nonetheless chose to claim a role that would monitor movement and a target for that role that had actively claimed they had targeted another player successfully. He would have to somehow know in advance that my using the "chess engine" would not act as a movement. Can anyone explain to me how he would have intuited that from any of the posts I made before he clarified his role? Because I can't. Maybe this is just the craziest scum tactic I've ever seen and Barney just targeted me with something else during the NP, failed, and just went for it for unknown reasons. If so, more power to him, that's quite the gambit.
I'm being genuine here, guys: can someone explain how it is more (or even equally) likely that a scum Barney would choose to claim this role (the weak information role that tracked my movement), this use of his role (targeting me, the player who had already claimed to get results from Earth), and this result (no movement) with the amount of information I had given him? Because, sincerely, I don't see it.
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Anyway, I’m at a party for the next couple of hours. I’ll check in when I get back and give thoughts on Luna and Vader’s claims.
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@Lunatic
You keep calling his role a motion detector, which completely ignores the second half of it. Not even Barney called his role a motion detector when he outed it. Mechanically it works similar, but you are grasping for it to confirm him because it was mentioned. Again we’d have to buy complete bastard mod behavior from Austin to straight up confirm another player to another player. The fact that you don’t see any way he could be mafia from those statements is frightening if you are actually town. Also why not consider the possibility that he isn’t lying about his role and mechanics and could still be mafia? Why are you so dead set he is town?
He targeted me. He didn’t see that I moved. That’s either a Tracker, a Motion Detector, or some derivation thereof. I sincerely do not give a fuck if his role actually says “Motion Detector” - it does not change much since, like I said, it still means that Barney got an accurate result when I used my role, which I would argue is not what someone else would expect upon seeing the information I was given.
As for his behavior being bastard mod, I sincerely have no idea how you want me to interpret the information I was given by Austin, but I was given that information. Notably, though, I’m not confirming anyone based chiefly on the fact that I was that I was told this info after the start of the DP. The confirmation is the result of my withholding information from the PM I received from Austin, seeing Barney’s role function in a way that matches the result, and using that as a basis for viewing his night actions as plausibly matching what he said he did. Sincerely, if you have a way to see him as scum with the information I’ve divulged that doesn’t require him to make several very fundamental assumptions that were entirely left out of my posts up to that point in this DP, I’m all ears.
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@Lunatic
I don’t understand how you are lost or confused. You revealed all this on the first page of day phase 2, where you claimed having information that you knew you weren’t roleblocked, and now are acting like Barney revealing he is a town roleblocker confirms him. How are you jumping to that conclusion or the conclusion he is town at all? How does it fit town Barney more than scum Barney?
So, a: it's not the first page of DP2. You're thinking of this post, where I detailed my results from the previous NP.
b: you're thinking of this post from page 2 where I said this:
Also, I was told this after the fact: the action I took was not considered an "active action." I asked for clarification, and what that means is it doesn't behave like a normal night action. It wouldn't have been affected by a roleblocker or redirector (yes, he did say that specifically). So, while a Godfather might fool it, I think we can confidently say that the result is the one I got on Earth, not the result of some change of target.
What I said, very clearly, was that I couldn't have been RB'd. Not that I wasn't RB'd at all.
Also, note two things: the absence of a Motion Detector among the claims that wouldn't work against it (it's in my PM, I left that information out), and the absence of any statement that I didn't actually move when I used it.
c: Let's put all this together. So, according to you, Barney somehow intuited that I didn't move. He specifically chose the Motion Detector, the one role listed in my PM from Austin that I didn't state would be ineffective when used on me, so he just lucked out picking that single role to use on me that Austin had confirmed wouldn't produce a result if used on me. That's the only way Barney's scum based on your logic: he somehow figured all this out based on a pair of posts that gave none of this information away. It has nothing to do with him claiming town RB. It never has.
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Anyway, I have thoughts about Luna’s role that I’m going to type up later when I get more time.
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@Lunatic
Why would it be considered movement? You are not actively visiting another player, your are being visited by them. It doesn't take genius logic to come by the conclusion that you didn't move anywhere. I think you are passing barney off way too easily over that. You are basically insinuating that austin bastard modded and mod confirmed him to you only over very faulty logic.
…I’m sincerely so lost on this portion of your post. I said that my use of the chess engine wasn’t considered to be movement. That is information I did not reveal back when I stated what happened at the start of the DP. Barney targeted me with what he claims was a Motion Detector that didn’t register movement.
So, what you’re assuming is that, somehow, Barney discerned from the limited information I gave within the DP that I used the chess engine, but in my use of it, I didn’t move? He somehow figured that out? Also, to be very clear about this, we’re talking about bastard modding either way. Austin delivered this info to me after the start of the DP, basically confirming that a role was used on me that fit that description. Either the person who used it was scum or they were town, but the confirmation was there regardless. The series of events fits far better for a town Barney than it does for a scum Barney.
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@Lunatic
It's more the avoidance of acknowledging the whole role blocking aspect that I have a problem titling him that. It's like a title that purposefully paints him in a town light.
I acknowledged the RB. Just because I focused the attention of that post on the Motion Detector element doesn’t mean I ignored the RB in my responses.
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@Lunatic
At most this should be null. Barney is claiming information that's been made publicly known in the day phase since the first page. It's funny you would jump to the conclusion he was town and mod-confirmed to you here only. That would be rather convenient, but yeah doesn't seem like Austin would do that.
…except that’s not true. I never said that my use of the chess engine would not be registered as movement. I also never said that Motion Detector was on the list of roles that would not be triggered/effective against it.
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@Lunatic
Yeah… that’s not what he claimed at all….
As I saw it, he claimed a “weak investigator” role (likely Motion Detector, given that he said I didn’t move) and that his RB was contingent on it seeing movement from me. What did I get wrong?
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@ILikePie5
So your role is also confirmable?
Yes, and given the nature of how it confirms me, it also strongly supports my alignment.
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@ILikePie5
As my character very clearly gives away my role and I can confirm myself (character, role and, most importantly, alignment), I would prefer not to.
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@Lunatic
@Vader
Alright.
Right now, I’m not liking that the number of supposedly confirmable roles exceeds the number of people who could be town, particularly given Earth is basically confirmed town and Barney a pretty solid town lean based on his claim. Moozer claimed a confirmable role, and both you and Pie claim you’re confirmable. It’s doubly strange that so many of you claim to be confirmable, but only by DP3.
So that leaves Luna as the only person who hasn’t claimed a confirmable role. Guess he’s next.
Unvote
VTL Luna
Unless anyone can think of a better way to go, I’m going to need that role claim at this point.
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@Moozer325
Earth: Kinda wanted to put in maybe, but they haven't done anything to trigger suspicion yet, but still hasn't claimed, so they're on thin ice up there unless they claim soon.
I appreciate the reads. Just a note: Earth has effectively fully claimed. He gave his character, and I confirmed what he did, so we know his role even if he hasn’t stated it specifically. He’s also been copped innocent by me.
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@Moozer325
No offense pie, but I’m calling bullshit on that. You may be right about having a complicated role, but it just seems to ridiculous, and you make no sense. Anyone who wants t vote with me can, but this is mostly just me voting with my conscience, even though I wont get anywhere.
Look, I'm not going to call you out on sussing Pie at this stage - I think you have some decent reason to do it - but this whole "voting with [your] conscience" bit isn't particularly helpful. If you honestly believe Pie is worth pursuing for a claim at this stage (he has stated that he will fully confirm himself next DP, so he's guaranteed to be under scrutiny at that point), then you should argue why other people should be on him, too.
Personally, I think you should be recognizing at this point that there are two scum left in the game. If you believe Pie is one of them or at least want to eliminate him as a pick, I respect that. Who do you think his partner is, and if you don't know, then who else do you want information from?
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@ILikePie5
I think it’s more that Austin fucked up and then created this whole Active Action bs to keep the game running. But the that’s just speculation
Understood. It was clearly an omission that is consequential for figuring out whether Barney is lying about his role, but so far, the evidence suggests that he's more likely town than scum.
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@ILikePie5
If I was scum and my role blocker on you didn’t work, I’d be furious. Either way, I want to hear from Lunatic and Earth on this matter
As would I. There is some possibility that Barney tried to RB me, got pissed that it didn't work, talked with Austin and got him to send me these details to explain it. Possible, but unlikely. I don't think scum would then push for Austin to send me a message like that. I certainly don't see Barney then outing himself as having the RB. Maybe he's pulling an incredible gambit, but I don't buy it based on the information we have.
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@Vader
So, my target changes. I'd like to give Pie the opportunity to prove himself next DP, which limits my choices to Luna and Vader. Luna at least has a character claim. Vader doesn't. I'd like at least a character claim from him.
VTL Vader
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@ILikePie5
So, I'll be blunt: I'm not voting Barney unless something dramatic changes. When Austin sent me that PM detailing how my investigation worked (after the fact), I assumed it was because someone targeted me. It's possible that the person who did that targeted me with an RB, that's literally on the list of actions he said would not affect mine. What was also on the list, and what I left off just in case it came up, was Motion Detector, the role that Barney just claimed.
Also, I'll note that the way Austin framed it to me was peculiar. He initially said that it doesn't "count as an active action." Note that he didn't say that the action cannot be prevented (as the Protector role was described) or that it cannot be redirected. Those came afterward. He specifically said that it's not "an active action" first. That suggests a focus on movement rather than one on the use of a specific role to intercede in or otherwise affect mine.
If Austin gets back to me with distinct information, I might change my mind, and I'm still considering other ways to interpret this. This, however:
Either way, it’s not affiliation indicative for Barney. We all know a town roleblocker is SOP. And a cop, with a motion detector, with a tracker.
is not currently one of them. I don't really agree that a town RB is obviously SOP, especially when the role is paired with an investigative role that he would also have to out. I also don't think that scum would actively claim an RB role when there are plenty of other options on the table. I also don't agree that that's overdoing it on the investigative front. We all agreed the Flipped Tracker is low utility. The 1X Cop role granted to someone else via Earth, despite the benefits of it being impossible to RB or redirect, could have just as easily gone to scum and been used against town, so it's got a substantial caveat. Having a Motion Detector in town, which I agree with Barney is a weak informational role, is not at all unbalanced given that information, especially when we know that everyone who has claimed so far and both flips yield dual roles. More informational roles are kind of a given.
What I find harder to believe is that Austin would actively facilitate scum like this by sending me that information after the night actions played out. It's not the best that it came out after the beginning of DP2 to begin with, but it lines up with Barney's telling of events. Maybe Austin would do this, actively affording scum an alibi for their actions that just so happens to include a fake claim that Barney actively used. Right now, I don't buy it.
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@Barney
Austin messaged you about it already, (presumably) to prevent a mess wherein I accused you of not moving, when that item didn't count as an active move.
That would explain the message I received from him. Never mind about detailing the specific target you chose or how your movements would (or wouldn't) register.
This is also why I said quite awhile ago that I'm 95% certain you're town. If I died, you not carrying out the NK could be found.
To be fair, as I said initially, my use of the chess engine meant that I could take no other action, so the NK would be off the table regardless
I'll wait for Austin's response to my PM before I give fuller thoughts on this claim.
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@Barney
You really can't? I have a dozen or so notifications notifications from Pie with his BS bullying tactic. When someone else (Lunatic) without being a bastard simply asked, I gave information.
Alright, I get that, though he wasn't the only one asking.
Adding to it, Pie gaslighting claiming he's already done a partial claim... But also not saying when and where... I mean either of us could have missed it, and he could have missed the list not including it... But all three seems unlikely if he's actually provided information.
Yes, I flagged that as well. He's claimed that he can verify his own character and role, but he has not claimed either at the moment. All I saw was a softclaim.
Anyways I'm a weak investigator roleblocker hybrid.Each night I select two players, the first of which I get a notification if they target another player (I don't know which player). The second gets roleblocked if the first moved.NP1 watched whiteflame, who did not move, so my roleblock did not trigger.
That at least makes sense with the role. I haven't actually asked whether my use of the chess engine counts as a move. I'm going to inquire about that. Who else did you select? And would that register as you visiting both players, even if the RB fails?
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@Moozer325
The way I see it, no one has really jumped out at me as being incredibly suspicious, so I’m working my way through, trying to get a feel for each person one at a time.
While it is worth making the rounds and trying to get more information, I think it's pretty obvious that you have at least limited the pool of suspects to some degree, otherwise you wouldn't have referred to Barney and Pie as "candidates." You've been reading through the DPs, so you should have some information to base that view off of.
To be clear, your goal in these games isn't necessarily to find someone who stands out as blatantly sus. That happens, but especially this early and with this little investigative information, it's not particularly likely to happen. You should nonetheless still be able to glean something from these DPs, even if it's only a pool of people who you think are likely town vs. everyone else. Part of doing that is just to organize your own thoughts, and part of it is showing us your thought process so that we can use it as a basis for our reads on you, so there's value in providing what insights you believe you can, even if they're not the most solid reads.
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@Moozer325
I don't really have any opinion on either of them, It's just that they're both candidates right now, and I'm trying to narrow it down.
By now, you really should have an opinion on them. What makes them "candidates" and how does that differentiate them from others? That seems like an opinion to me. You'll notice that several of us have spelled out our reads to explain why we see certain people as sus or, at the very least, the explain who we limit the potential scum to based on process of elimination (PoE). It's worth providing some insight into how you're seeing other players at this point, which would also increase your active participation in the DP.
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@ILikePie5
@Moozer325
I totally agree with you about pie here. If you can give us a better claim, I'm with you if you want to go after him next, but I need that claim first.I’m interested to hear your thoughts on this comment by Moozer
It’s pretty odd that he agrees with Barney and wants a claim from you, but is still pushing for Barney to claim first. I get the impression that he’s trying to feel out both of you with the belief that one of you is scum, but it’s an odd way to approach it. If he really susses you, then that’s where his vote should be. I get that he’s new to this, but he’s handling his sussing strangely.
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@Barney
There may be some reason why you are avoiding full claiming here, but as someone who saw you do this last DP when you were town, I’m having a harder time in this game understanding the reticence. Maybe I’m just not picking up on the same signal I did then, and whatever role you have is something you’re just that desperate to hide, but regardless of what it is, I don’t think it’ll do us any good if it remains hidden at this point. You’re as likely as anyone in this DP to become the lynch target if things stay like this, so I honestly can’t fathom what calculus would make holding back on the claim the better choice. If you want to put attention elsewhere, then this is the only way it’s going to be taken off of you.
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@ILikePie5
Can we now plz pursue a full claim from Barney
He's at L-1. Ball's in his court.
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@ILikePie5
Okay so the investigation wasn’t reflexive. Am I understanding that correctly?
I had a choice as to whether to use it and I chose my target, yes.
You of your own volition chose Earth to investigate. May I ask why?
Of course you may.
First, as I signaled at the end of the last DP, he was my trickiest read. I wanted to either have a target to sus this DP or be able to eliminate him as a plausible target of suspicion.
Second, after I received the PM, I agonized over who would be most likely to give me this and believed that most anyone else would have been more likely, since I figured Earth didn't solidly townread me following on DP1. I believed he was about as likely as you were to send this to me, so I flipped a coin. This is how the coin landed.
It doesn’t fall in the tactic or strategy bucket. It falls in the platform bucket. Basically on what the players play
It's a means by which players can have AI direct their tactics, hence I put it in the tactics bucket. I don't really care to argue how we should perceive it because, either way, it's distinctly different from the other claims made so far and from mine as well. They are all markedly different.
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@ILikePie5
I wouldn’t consider those tactics in a chess context. Pawns are not tactics.
I said Stockfish functions as something I would put in the “tactics” bucket. I agree, neither Castling nor Pawn obviously falls within a similar bucket, that’s why I said they’re an individual move and a piece, respectively.
My character is more unique than what’s been claimed so far. I would urge you to force Barney and Vader to full claims
I’m going to need something more than that, some bucket that this falls into or is associated with. I can push for full claims after everyone has given a softclaim. This is too vague.
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@ILikePie5
Alright:
I received a PM from Austin saying that I had an opportunity to use a chess engine at the cost of my night action. If I used it, it would allow me to find out the alignment of my target during that NP.
I accepted. I targeted Earth. I was told he was innocent.
After the fact, I was told that this ability could not have been redirected or roleblocked.
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@Earth
Thinking about it some more, I feel like WF hasn't really proven himself to be town. I kinda regret claiming my character and not giving WF the chance to out his innocent on me first, but it's something.
Honestly, I haven’t. Wouldn’t be surprised if most people null read me at this point. And yeah, would’ve been nice if I’d had time to post the innocent result before you claimed, though you can at least keep some things about your role in the dark.
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@Vader
None. Granted my character has to do with something with one of the categories. But it does really fit that category though
Alright, could you at least state what category it includes? I understand that your character doesn't fit into said category, but I'd like to narrow the window a bit.
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Apologies, I somehow flipped Earth's role and character. Fixed.
Dashboard
PLAYER ROLE CHAR__________ _NP1
2. Pie ??? ???
3. whiteflame ??? "tactic" Copped Earth Inno
6. Lunatic ??? ???
7. Vader ??? ???
8. Barney ??? "tactic"
9. Earth "chess engine" Stockfish Gave WF chess engine
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@Moozer325
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@Vader
@ILikePie5
Alright, given that we're not getting traction on the effort to get a claim out of Barney (at least for now - I'll come back to this), I'd like to at least start getting a set of softclaims, which could help with some theme analysis. The difficulty is, as Pie expressed early in the DP, there isn't a lot of overlap between the claims on the table: Algebraic Notation, Pawn, Stockfish, Castling.
That being said, it wouldn't be the first time I've seen a game where scum have a uniting theme and town just doesn't, and so I'd like to at least start to narrow the window for everyone who currently has not softclaimed. I've already stated that I'm also a strategy, so I'd put myself in the "tactic" bucket as well. I think Luna has been pushing a soft claim since the start of the DP, but I'd nonetheless like to get some clarity as to which camp he falls into. So far, we've seen tactics (using Stockfish), individual moves (Castling), and pieces (Pawn). Algebraic Notation is more just a descriptor that covers all these things to some degree.
So if you fall into one of these camps, state which one, and if not, state what camp you do fall into. Since I haven't seen evidence of a softclaim from either of you, I'm tagging you two first, and I'm taking my vote off for now.
Unvote
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@Lunatic
@Moozer325
So to clarify, you declined access to the chess engine? Were you told what it would do?
I was told I would receive the alignment of the player I chose. I used it. I was told I could accept or decline, and I chose to accept, targeting Earth.
Also, to your point about whether Moozer is BG or some other protective role is valid, but I did ask him about that last DP and never got an answer. So I left my initial assumption up. I've tagged him again on this in hopes that he'll clarify.
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Earth: Strong town. At this point, the double confirmation should ensure that he's basically guaranteed to be town, especially given the info I received afterward regarding the inability of scum to redirect or prevent me from using the 1X Cop. I'm frustrated that I ended up double confirming him instead of getting insight into someone else, but we have no reason to doubt Earth at this point. Even if you doubt me at this point (and frankly, I haven't confirmed myself just by using the role I was given), he's pretty solid.
Moozer: Lean town. The only way I could reason that he was scum based on anything he's done (and it's not a lot) is based on his claim, and much as I buy the possibility that he has a scum partner who came up with it, I don't buy that said scum partner also told him to out that claim without pressure. That does not add up to me. Behaviorally, he's null, but since this is what I have to go with, that's where I'm placing him.
Luna: Very slight townread. I'm having a really hard time reading him this game. For the most part, I like his reads, but I don't get seeing Pie as his top town read given what's been revealed so far. He suggests there's some other reason for this view, but in the absence of more information, I'm kind of puzzled on why he thinks Pie leans so hard into town. He's been incisive, and in DP1 I read his behavior as town, hence the townread.
Pie: Probably the closest to a town lean based on his behavior last DP, though in my reassessing things this DP, he ends up more null to me, particularly after those reads. Just like Luna, he's not very specific about what makes Luna look townie to him beyond being more incisive with Supa. I get that that makes it less likely that they're a scum team together, but he seems to be hedging a bit on this read with the "but you never know" at the end. I guess he's ending up with Barney in scum through PoE and frustration that he hasn't answered questions yet, which makes more sense to me given what I know of Barney's behavior as scum. The fact that he's claimed to have a confirmable role means he'll either be cleared or at the top of my scum list next DP, so he's not the focus of my attention right now.
Barney: There just haven't been enough posts for me to make heads or tails of his behavior so far. I'd support at least getting a character claim from him at this point, since he's currently the player we know the least about behaviorally beyond Moozer, and that's not something I'm willing to let slide.
Vader: I still have to go back through DP1 to see if his shift to voting JoeBob makes sense based on how he posted (he seemed very adamant that it wasn't JoeBob for a while and I'm still not sure what convinced him). Also, he currently has Moozer in his PoE and I just don't understand his reasoning. So Moozer, who has largely been absent from this game, is also a part of a pretty quickly performing scum team (that was not a long NP) and likely contributed to the Savant NK, despite having a partner who is significantly more experienced? I don't know where that read is coming from. I do see the potential of buddying between Pie and Luna, but his basis for sussing them beyond that seems pretty weak.
So, I'd like to pursue more info from Barney first. Vader would be my second choice, though we can discuss that after Barney claims at least his character. VTL Barney. I want that sandwich.
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@ILikePie5
Who would you like to pressure? Vader or Barney? Also reads?
I'm working on it. Rarely ever make these posts short.
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Dashboard
PLAYER ROLE CHAR__________ _NP1
2. Pie ??? ???
3. whiteflame ??? ??? Copped Earth Inno
6. Lunatic ??? ???
7. Vader ??? ???
8. Barney ??? ???
Killed/Lynched
I think that about covers what we know so far.
Also, I was told this after the fact: the action I took was not considered an "active action." I asked for clarification, and what that means is it doesn't behave like a normal night action. It wouldn't have been affected by a roleblocker or redirector (yes, he did say that specifically). So, while a Godfather might fool it, I think we can confidently say that the result is the one I got on Earth, not the result of some change of target.
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@Barney
Maybe I'm misreading this... Austin is the host, so what are you trying to say?
I received a PM from the mod (Austin) saying that I had access to the "chess engine" as a result of something that happened. It was not stated who I received it from, but with Earth's claim, I think we can assume it came from him. What's unclear?
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@ILikePie5
I'll take it. Honestly would've been suspicious of him all the way up to the end.
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@Vader
Savant getting killed is weird to me
Yeah, it's kind of baffling. Savant would have consistently been a target of some suspicion and, given that he said he couldn't confirm the second aspect of his role, I wouldn't have seen him as much of a risk to leave alive.
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@Earth
Do not specify your role any further. I'm not sure whether you're a one-shot or a multi-shot, but you should not reveal it.
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@Lunatic
During the NP, I received a message from Austin saying that I was granted access to a "chess engine" at the expense of my night action, which functioned as a 1X Cop. Based on the claim he just gave of Stockfish (which is a chess engine), I can confirm that he targeted me. Unfortunately, I made the decision to target him (he obviously copped innocent), so he's basically double confirmed at this point.
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At minimum, we can at least get some insight into potential theme splits based on the flip.
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@ILikePie5
Yeah, I’ll just hammer. At this point, I see no better options and, even given how perplexed I am that either scum or Austin would come up with this particular role, just the fact that the cat’s already out of the bag about it makes the information we could garner from it pretty weak and only accessible by wasting a future lynch, which we can ill afford to do. If he flips town, it’s not a substantial loss, but he does come off as scummy in a way no one else does.
VTL JoeBob
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After reading through the DP again, I haven't changed my thoughts substantially, but I'll add to my post from last night:
Savant: Suffice it to say that, while I don't want to pursue a full claim right now, I'll be looking to fill in the gap in his role next DP. He says it can't confirm him, but I'd like to at least get the info for the purpose of understanding the justification (i.e. what makes the Pawn and role relate), given that he's admitted that the Miller is not all that great of a match. I'm not currently sussing him, but while I'm lightly townreading his claim so far, the missing element makes me nervous.
Pie: The aggressive behavior he has displayed so far falls in line with what I'd expected whether he's town or scum. I usually (as with last game) have trouble reading Pie this early based on behavior alone, and that's no different here. He's null to me.
Moozer: One of the two people I'm townreading most so far, though both aren't strong reads. If he's scum, he's on a team with someone who has been scum before and they at least would know that it's a mistake to out their role without pressure, particularly in the absence of any fake claims. He hasn't contributed enough that I can say anything about him beyond that, but it's enough for now.
JoeBob: My read of him hasn't changed. Either this is a thrown together fake claim that is perplexing or it's one derived by Austin that seems purpose-built to be frustrating. Even if he hadn't outed his role, we'd have to hope that he draws the NK just to give town information from his Tracking... that took place in previous NPs. I don't think we stand to gain a lot of information from this role regardless of what we do, though as Barney pointed out, it's possible that he could use this role twice before we're effectively forced to lynch him. There may be value in that, but getting people onboard for two VTNLs with this information seems unlikely and includes its own risks. Top of my scum pile atm based chiefly on his claim and how he has responded to being sussed over it.
Lunatic: Luna has come off as pretty methodical so far. I haven't seen anything that stands out from his posts so far, and his reasons for pushing on JoeBob make sense. Slight townread.
Vader: I'm of a similar mind with Luna that it's odd how much pushback Vader was exhibiting against the behavioral reads on JoeBob before deciding he was the most viable lynch target. Beyond that, I don't think Vader's said anything that looks particularly off and I think he's had some decent insights, but this decision to change tactics did stand out to me. Slight scum read.
Barney: Not a lot of contribution early on. I largely agree with what he said in this post, both with regards to Savant and JoeBob's claims, though much of his thoughts on the latter is largely repetitive of what was said before. Null.
Earth: Tricky to read him right now. All of his posts have been pretty short and not very insightful. He's pushed back on sussing JoeBob several times now, largely on the basis that it's a complex role and therefore not one that he would come up with himself. Speaking as someone who has worked with JoeBob as scum, I did help him with his fake claim in that game, even if it was largely for the sake of clarifying a fake role claim given to us. It is a little of a complicated role, but he has had ample time to clarify it by now, and it didn't come off obviously in those first few posts. Also, weird that he offered to softclaim and just never did. I do find this behavior a little off, but I also have trouble seeing him as a scum partner for JoeBob.
Unless someone has a better choice that isn't just pushing on another player for inactivity, I'm leaning toward lynching JoeBob right now, though I'd like to at least see Vader's response to Luna before committing.
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I'm not terribly interested in getting more claims, either, and Barney's relative inactivity up to this point isn't enough to justify seeking a claim from him. If he's not active next DP, then we can talk about it, but I agree with Luna that it's not going to help town to have more claims this DP.
As for my general thoughts, I'm still leaning towards JoeBob for reasons I've already covered. I don't really buy it as either a good fake claim or something that Austin would have come up with, but it does actually make more sense if the role was cobbled together on the fly. Behaviorally, I still don't think he stood out much before he started trying to explain how his role works.
With regards to others, I still feel Savant's claim is a little off, but it's less sus than JoeBob's. I get that there's another element he's not giving us because it's supposed to be unconfirmable and that that's supposed to link to the Pawn, but it means there's a big question mark hanging over his claim right now.
By contrast, Moozer's role is very straightforward and I just generally find it hard to believe that, if he was scum, his partner would encourage him to out his role.
As for everyone else... honestly, I'd like to re-read the DP to get some behavioral analysis on Luna, Pie and Vader and pick up what I can from Earth and Barney's limited posts before pushing ahead with a lynch. Right now, JoeBob makes the most sense to me, but I'll see how I'm feeling about that afterward.
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