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@Barney
Alright, certainly wouldn't be a first for me, either. Just checking, though I've already assumed: no results?
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@Barney
@Vader
Seriously, though, someone explain this to me: why did you both immediately jump on BK for a claim when he already had one?
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@AustinL0926
I just realized he claimed x1, wasn't paying attention. I find that slightly anti-town, SOP is that you don't say when your role gets max utility so that you bait a useless NK from scum
Looks like you and I came to the same realization.
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@AustinL0926
Also, I´m concerned about the Joebob lynch yesterday. First, the total lack of resistance (I think all the votes switched over within a page or two), and second, the fact it happened at all.He literally had a semi'confirmable role. Yes, he was behaviorally sus (I´m not going to pretend I claimed otherwise), but the problem is that we have to lynch GP sooner or later. I don´t understand why you didn´t get lynch GP and let Joebob get a night of information.
I get your point, and I'm not going to pretend that I made the right decision pursuing the lynch based on his claim. I'd say the way he put it out sounded pretty similar to his Motivator claim in the last game, especially as he presented it and modified it a couple of times after his claim. I expected him to be rather clear with his role out the gate if he was town, and it rang scummy to me when he started responding with changes. It did not help that it was unclear just how confirmable the role was, especially after he explained it. That being said, you're right, we should have at least kept him alive for one DP to get results, even if we only determined they were usable after he was lynched this DP. It was the end of the DP, I was busy, and I didn't have the opportunity to think it through as well as I should have.
No results. And yes, I did consider that - it's like having a Rolecop and a Cop in the same game. However, it's still risky enough that I doubt he would fakeclaim without being pressured. Lot of risk for minimal reward
I'm still not convinced (it would not be the first time scum came out with a ballsy claim without pressure, and I actually find the decision to do so without pressure odd... as was the decision to out himself as a 1X Cop rather than suggesting that he could do it more, which was pretty anti-town and seemed like was covering his butt a bit for when the CC was pointed out), though I'm not currently willing to pursue a lynch based on that claim alone.
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@AustinL0926
Thanks for chiming in. Two things.
One, do you have any results?
Two, I largely agree with you, though I'll note that, while it is most definitely a ballsy claim if he is scum (and I don't think Pie would give scum Cop as a fake claim), it's a whole lot less ballsy with that Emissary flip. Seems like having both a Cop and an Emissary would be an... interesting choice for a setup from Pie, since it creates so many opportunities for town to confirm its members. Unless he gave scum a lot of roles that mess with results, I have trouble believing it's plausible, tbh, and I can see a scenario where scum sees that flip and reasonably assumes there's no Cop in the game.
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@Earth
@AustinL0926
@WyIted
So, I'll start with what happened in the last DP.
Frankly, I think the fact that so many people got the behavioral read on JoeBob wrong should be giving us pause on similar behavioral reads, and the fact that people are so quick to jump on BK this DP is disquieting. If this is the choice town is making coming off that flip and with the information we already have, then that's a bad sign. I signed onto the JoeBob lynch because of several elements of his claim that put me off, but like I said numerous times during the previous DP (and like several people apparently sussed me over repeatedly throughout the DP), none of it came off as obviously scummy for him. If JoeBob was just some random player, then yes, several aspects of his behavior during DP1 should have yielded that response, but he has known scum and town behavior. We also know a good deal about how BK has played over many games. Jumping all over him just because you sus his claim or have problems with his behavior should not be the response to this flip unless you have clear-cut reasons why BK's behavior differs from previous games. It's not sufficient to call him out on sus behaviors in this game.
As for the Cop claim from Vader... anyone else find that distinctly strange after the Emissary flip? They're not 1-to-1, but they are similarly built around determining whether someone is town-aligned, just by distinct means (Cop by targeting someone else and finding out whether they're innocent, and Emissary apparently by just receiving information that indicates the identity of a town-aligned player). I'm not sure if there are other investigative roles in this game, and maybe it just makes sense to have two somewhat similar ones like this, particularly if there's a Godfather to mess with those results (can't tell if the Emissary would be fooled by that role). While I understand why he would target me, I'm still deciding whether I buy it. Also not sure what to think of his character claim.
That being said, given that I've been copped innocent (long as we're assuming it's real and that I haven't monkeyed with the result), I think I'm in the best position to pursue that information and I think claiming myself is only going to be a detriment to town. That being said, I'd like to wait and see what results we have from anyone else before we move on. Since Barney has posted already and hasn't included any results, I'm going to assume he has none. BK's claim precludes that as well, as does GP's. The rest of you (all the ones I've tagged) should state if you have any information as soon as you get on.
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I’ve got thoughts on both Vader’s claim and on the results from the last DP, but I’m in the middle of something. Both of you need to explain why you’re suddenly on this kick.
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@Barney
@Vader
Wait, why are you pursuing BK for a full claim? He already gave his. Barney, you literally have his full claim on that list. It’s fine if you don’t buy it, but he’s given it.
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@Vader
To play devils advocate, I have seen Pie mislabel roles before in his game. I remember one time where I was a certain role but a justification of a different role
Yeah, that’s my main concern. It’s an odd choice for labeling, but it might be better suited to the character.
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I'm going to be busy over much of the remainder of this DP since I'm wrapping up at work. In any case, I now prefer this lynch over GP. Unless someone can give me a strong reason not to do it, this is where my vote will stay.
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Ok I am right. This is a different version. Just because you google something and the first source says whatever you found doesn’t automatically mean your right.
I don't know why it would be called Emissary, then. Why not just the Cop? Or the Friendly Neighbor? Seems like either of those roles fit more accurately.
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@JoeBob
This makes zero sense. If you read any of the books, you can clearly tell he is good.
That's not the point. Scum will either have received fake claims of "good" characters or, since you are so knowledgeable about the books, this would have served as a reasonably safe claim given that it doesn't feature among those central 7 characters. It's not proof positive that your claim is false, but it's one more reason why I distrust it.
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@JoeBob
is that not what I said? Pie literally said you can’t paste the pm, so I paraphrased it.
You said:
Each night I get some insight on who a town member is. It probably won’t tell me flat out, but we could try to peice it together.
That's entirely distinct. If you followed the Emissary description directly, you would already have that information. You wouldn't need to garner it during the NP.
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@Greyparrot
I still don't understand your wild theories on soldier. If you have another game or source that says it isn't town, I would be happy to look at it.
If I'm being honest, I'm not sure how much I buy the Soldier part of that, specifically. I have an easier time believing you're actually Frank Zhang, but not so sure about the role.
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@JoeBob
Ok. I’ll just say it now. I am Nico. I am Emissary. Each night I get some insight on who a town member is. It probably won’t tell me flat out, but we could try to peice it together.
So... that doesn't make sense. I hadn't heard of an Emissary before, so I had to look it up. Here's how it's described:
The Emissary starts the game with reliable information of the identity of one town-aligned player in the game.
Given how he played last time - using the Motivator fake claim and having issues explaining the role accurately - this already reads as scummy to me.
Maybe this is some variant of it, but it's not one I'm familiar with and it seems at least a tad sus that you'll be given some unclear "insight." It's also strange that it's specific to a town member. Seems like an easy way to present information without having to be held to the results of a flip.
Also, I have concerns about his character claim, and I might as well bring this up now. Elements of my justification give me reason to believe that 7 of the characters in this game are part of the Prophecy of Seven. I'm not sure all of them are town-aligned. That's part of the reason why I'm having so much trouble with GP's claim: he's placed a member of the Prophecy of Seven, Frank Zhang, as his fake claim. I have a hard time believing that any of the Seven aren't in this game, let alone that one would be used solely as a fake claim. Still, that's a lighter sus than the one I have on JoeBob based on this claim.
So, yeah, I'm willing to pursue this lynch now.
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I don't know much about whiteflame's meta, but that tone doesn't strike me as very cooperative
As for this, I'd say actively ignoring that I'd already provided extensive thoughts on JoeBob only to call a response to your thoughts "fluff posting" isn't helpful. I'm not interested in reiterating everything I've ever said about him just to make clear that, yes, I've been considering his behavior. So, no, I'm not particularly willing to cooperate with someone who only considers my most recent posts when he responds to me. I'm willing to cooperate on a lynch, but I'm not going to revisit every post I've ever made just to address a response that takes scant little of what I've said and what's happened since into account.
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@AustinL0926
I'll vote GP if he doesn't come online and we'll sort this out next DP. Your choice if you'd rather pull that trigger first. Personally, I'd like to get that information this DP, and if he refuses to provide it, then we can act on the lynch, not just threaten it. That's generally how these things work.
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@AustinL0926
Explain? I simply think that voting without actually intending to lynch is pointless. It makes the votes effectively meaningless
It doesn't. Seeking information with the aim of making a decision based off that information is not meaningless. If the claim isn't convincing, it's a basis for going through with the lynch. If it is convincing, we have an alternative.
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@AustinL0926
This is some serious fluffposting BTW. A paragraph of text boils down to acknowledging the behavioral reads on Joebob, and weakly suggesting pushing him later. I'm skeptical that whiteflame really made a serious attempt to analyze Joebob's behavior.
I'm honestly just so tired of this at this point. I've given my thoughts on JoeBob. I didn't add to them here because I was already clear. All I did was push back on your characterization. And I already am pushing JoeBob, so if you still think I'm scummy, then fine, whatever.
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@AustinL0926
I did check back into your previous posts and saw the links. They did say Soldier, so point taken.
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@WyIted
That's what I'm more likely to do at the moment. If I see JoeBob hop online without posting, though, I might change my mind.
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If he doesn't post before the DP ends in ~4 hours with this much pressure on him, then that's on him at this point. I'd still prefer the GP lynch, but I'll make my decision on that if it gets close to the mark. People can make their own calls on a lack of response.
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@Lunatic
That's fine by me. I recognize that I'm biased by my experience with him in the previous game, and we'd be doing this at the start of the next DP regardless, so might as well get it out of the way now.
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Since now other people seem to be on-board with getting info, I'm fine with that. Let's do it.
VTL JoeBob
Let's get a claim.
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@Lunatic
If you want to pursue information from JoeBob, pursue it. I'll even join you in that pursuit, and depending on his claim, I might even join you in a lynch. I'm not dismissing him entirely - I even gave specific aspects of his play that do stand out - but that doesn't mean I'm going to automatically treat him as the preferable lynch target. I also don't agree that lynching GP is effectively information null.
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@AustinL0926
How Soldier has appeared in previous games doesn't necessarily dictate how it will appear in this game, but if I remember correctly, the role you're thinking about is Survivor.
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@Lunatic
I still think the wagon on JoeBob is coming from a place of extremely limited information, particularly with regards to his behavior. I honestly don't care if you sus me for providing a large explanation for why I don't agree with the decisions of you and others to sus him to the point of wanting him lynched rather than pursuing any kind of claim out of him first. If it draws more attention to me to say it, so be it. Doesn't mean I'm going to sheep your argument or anyone else's, especially not after having spent an entire game in chat with JoeBob as his scum partner.
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@AustinL0926
So, a couple of things I don’t really get from this post:
First, I can’t find anywhere that provides a specific alignment for Soldier. If you have a link to a site that is that clear about it being town-aligned, share it. I’ve seen a couple of variations on what it could be, though one of the more common ones is a Vig, which isn’t necessarily town aligned.
Second, my issue with the wagon on JoeBob isn’t that there is no basis for it. I’ve already acknowledged the lurking as a basis (and, to a lesser extent, the sheeping). My problem has been the specific behavioral cues that are setting people off, all of which seem to be issues that don’t take into account his past play and view in him a vacuum, which has become the common means of eliminating newer players early for some reason, often to our detriment. Beyond that, it would be one thing if they were pursuing him for a claim. It’s quite another to say that these reasons are sufficient for a lynch. I’m fine with pushing on him for future DPs. I want more information, which is part of the reason I’m fine with the lynch on GP since it will clear several things up for me. I don’t think just getting a lynch on JoeBob serves us as well (and frankly, I haven’t seen anyone justify its utility beyond just saying he’s behaviorally off), not with such limited scum tells that could easily be the result of playing two games at the same time (the lurking) or his scattered attempts to understand a role that’s been called out as a player who has never seen it before (the sheeping).
But it’s been generally agreed that, with two full claims on the board, we don’t want more information this DP, so I haven’t been pushing for it. I’d be fine getting his claim now. I’d be fine pursuing it at the start of the next DP, when I’ll have GP’s flip to consider. I’m just not fine lynching him now.
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@WyIted
Also you seem to agree GP is the lynch here so are you going to hammer?
I’m fine with hammering, but I want to hear from Luna before I do. Getting a greater understanding of how you and Vader are thinking about these wagons helps, and I’d like more from him as well. If it gets too late, I’ll put the hammer down regardless.
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Honestly, the only reason I’ve seen so far to sus JoeBob that makes the most sense is his lurking and his defensive response to lurking. That’s the one issue I can agree doesn’t look great. He’s not alone in that, and he’s definitely made it more obvious than most, but it’s there.
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I'm going to need more of a reason than I'm seeing to vote JoeBob. The main sources of reasoning are:
Vader is on this vote because he thinks JoeBob is buddying me, mentions how he "just get chops of into during the DP versus the whole scoop," and says there's more utility to it.
To a certain degree, I agree with the first statement in that he's really going for the Soldier fake claim. He's been going off on a tangent with it that doesn't match what I say, but he agrees with me that GP's claim is likely fake. If that's the extent of his buddying, I don't buy that that alone is scummy. It's certainly not necessary to be on the GP wagon and, given that we just got out of a game where we talked a lot about my logic, he's likely trying to kick the tires on it more this game. The second point I can't parse, but I think you're saying that he is just picking up on bits of the DP and missing the larger picture, which reads to me like someone coming into it and re-reading from the start rather than someone with a scum partner who can offer that information. As for utility... I don't get it. What utility? If he's scum, there's utility. If he's town, there's negative utility.
Luna is scumreading him because he thinks it's more meaningful than a GP wagon and doesn't think JoeBob has done much scum hunting.
I don't recall a single game where JoeBob was actively scum hunting in DP1, regardless of his status. If anything, I'd find that kind of behavior more sus because it would be largely unprecedented this early. I'm also unclear on why the wagon is "more meaningful." What are we supposed to take away from a lynch on JoeBob if he's town? That we're down one town member? I also don't understand why hopping on this particular wagon makes the most sense because of who's on it. He claims he's doing this in part because of a behavioral townread on Vader and a feeling that GP's just going to be less biased, which... I don't really get. Just because GP doesn't have inside factional information doesn't mean he has any incentive to vote in a way that benefits town. If his claim is correct, the only thing that benefits him is prolonging the game.
And, despite not having his vote on him, WyIted calls him out on wanting to read the DP thoroughly before providing his thoughts.
He mainly relates this to how he would personally behave, but he's not engaging with how JoeBob plays the game. As someone who was on a scum team with him for the entirety of our last game, I don't see any of his posts as behaviorally in a similar light. He is trying to be more prepared for these posts, but based on our discussion during that game as well as his concerns about how he plays in general, I view this as an effort to change things up and make sure his contributions are more informed. Just because WyIted would do this as scum doesn't mean it's common behavior. I'm consistently hesitant to post without catching up, it's not indicative of anything for me.
So, no, I don't understand this wagon at all. It comes off as trying to behaviorally sus him for reasons that don't match his play in previous games. I just don't buy it and I honestly don't understand how three different people approach sussing him so differently (minus the "utility" and "meaningful" statements from Vader and Luna) based off of different flavors of weak behavioral analysis. It doesn't make sense to me.
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Alright, we should start working this out before the final day ends with no decision. I've already expressed my willingness to lynch GP. I understand that that is not the decision everyone would like to go for, but we need to consolidate. Does anyone have qualms with lynching him? Who prefers a NL and, if you do, why? If someone else has a worthy target (I know there are two votes on JoeBob), then please explain why you think they are a better choice this DP.
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Right now, if I'm correct, GP is at 3 votes. Right now, I see no reason to go with a vote against anyone else. I don't really get what JoeBob sees as scummy from BK, but it's not enough for me to VTL him. A NL might have its benefits, but with GP on the table now, I don't see a reason to push off his lynch to a later DP.
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@Greyparrot
Is that a request to get my source? Sincerely not sure.
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@Greyparrot
Assume you are right that I am a soldier (I had to look it up, I believe it means essentially 1x bulletproof)That just means Scum would be a bit more motivated to get me lynched to get to their plurality.
That's not how I've seen it when I look at the usual sites. Soldier doesn't come off as a defensive role, but rather an alternative name for Vig. Maybe that's not how Pie did it here, but if that's what your research brought up, then you're either not searching very broadly or you're deliberately excluding the most likely way the role works.
Considering that you're not particularly helpful in affecting that plurality, not to mention you have absolutely no incentive to work with town, I'm willing to take my chances.
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@JoeBob
Soilder?
Soldier, but yes, I believe so.
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@JoeBob
Even if he isn’t jester, I still think he is lying about his role.
Agreed, and I think he's already told us what his role actually is.
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@JoeBob
I’m almost done with page 1. Austin brought up a good point. What is GP is jester? His fakeclaim is prophet, and this whole thing is to win on the first day. Greyparrot is smart enough(I would hope so) to know that if he revealed as a third party, people would vote him out. Why else is the literal first post of this day saying he is a third party? It doesn’t add up.
I don't buy that. I think if he wanted to be lynched, it would have been easier to either just say he was scum or to select a different role that was basically an auto-lynch. Claiming a TP and specifically claiming Prophet is not nearly that automatic. He has pulled tricks before, including one game where he was a Mine and used it to get a quick kill and end the first DP (don't ask me which game, this was a while back), but this seems different, especially since he didn't open with the "it doesn't matter if I die" line, but brought it in quite a bit later. It doesn't add up that he's the Jester, and, while this might be a bit of mod-psych, I just don't buy that Pie would have a Jester in this game. There's something up with his claim, but I don't think that's it.
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I never addressed it, but I don't get WyIted's softclaim. The way he's phrasing it is that we as a group will somehow benefit from lynching GP based on his role. I can't tell if that's because his role/wincon are built on killing a TP or if he somehow subsumes the role of someone we kill. It's hard to see a scenario where it benefits town as a whole, rather than just him as an individual. Normally I'd just townread this because there was already a wagon on GP and a decent reason to believe he'd be lynched come the end of the DP, but WyIted pushed ijb to CC me last game despite the fact that I was already copped guilty by RM with the aim of making him look townie for doing it, so I can't dismiss that out of hand. It's a strange move, especially given how late it is, but I'm viewing it as a little scummy at this point.
That being said, killing the TP makes sense to me on a basic level if we don't have any reason to lynch someone else, and right now, I don't. Given that I also think GP's actually the Soldier, I'd say there's more reason to do it considering that he'd likely add a NK. If I'm wrong, we don't lose anything meaningful, though my only concern about doing it at this stage is that we bolster WyIted somehow. At minimum, I think it's better than a NL.
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I'm fine with lynching GP if it comes to that. I still don't buy his claim and, if I'm right that he is a Soldier, he's likely another NK and therefore dangerous as a TP or scum. If I'm wrong, then we lose nothing and gain some information that could at least help with theme analysis.
That being said, I'm fine with spending a little more time in this DP - it's only been a little over 24 hours and I think we can at least get some indications based on behavior for everyone else.
As for my reads at the moment, I'm moderately townreading BK and JoeBob. I won't give all the reasons for the former, but suffice it to say that I agree with Luna in this post. His fumbling how the role works came off as townie to me, and the role itself just seems like a very niche choice for someone trying to get off easy like Vader seems to think. If he did just look this up on mafiascum or get this as a fake claim, I don't think he would have fumbled the explanation, either. JoeBob is more of a hunch. He's taken a pretty active role considering claims this DP and has generally come in more directed than he did when I was on a scum team with him. Maybe he's trying something new, but I doubt it.
I have light townreads on Luna and Austin. Austin in particular seems to be trying hard to work through various elements of the game, and it just doesn't read like someone trying to tilt the scales in any given direction. It also doesn't seem like fluff. Always had some trouble with Luna, but a lot of his responses have been more focused on broadening attention rather than driving it away from any given target, and he's had some good insights.
Everyone else besides GP is a various flavor of null. I can't speak much to Barney because he's been distracted and it's harder to read him based on behavior so far. WyIted hasn't come off as particularly weird this DP, which is an improvement from his last game, but could just be an effort to make up for his play and do better as scum. Hard to say. Vader came back into this DP hot, which was nice to see as it gives a good indication of how much he'll participate, but didn't really come off either way from my perspective. I recall him jumping on certain tells based on skimming the DP, in some cases with limited or incorrect statements, so I'm not going to sus him for that. Earth is probably the closest to being a light scumread. Much as he's been absent from much of the discussion, his limited contributions have largely looked like attempts to claim there's something wrong with GP's claims without explaining why it makes sense to him. I'll have to go back and check out previous games to see if this was the norm, it's been a while.
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@JoeBob
You click on the number of the post in the top right. That’s a link that directs you to that post.
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@Barney
Updated.
Dashboard
PLAYER ROLE CHAR DP1 NP1
1. Barney
2. Lunatic
3. Austin
4. Whiteflame
6. JoeBob
7. Earth
9. Wylted
10. Vader
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@Vader
But this is the problem. Why do you not see this role as sus at face. Maybe I missed it but it makes no sense to me. For someone to view an existence of a Prophet as 3p with a fake claim as sus compared to Millionaire that has effectively no use. We also know that Pie hadn't given a fake claim in the past 2 (thought he has a history and a mod psyche debate is brutal).
I gave very specific reasoning as to why I sussed the Prophet claim. It had nothing to do with the reality of what a Prophet is - it had everything to do with the nature of his fake claim and... just the fact that it exists. I similarly don't sus the Millionaire claim for what it is.
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@Lunatic
@AustinL0926
I'm not going to pretend I have a good understanding of the theme. At best, what I have is a conception of who many of characters are likely to be in this game based on what little I've read on the subject. I'd say most of my analysis of the game so far has to do with the mechanics rather than the theme, but I am trying to pick it up where I can.
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@Vader
I buy the claim but I still have the FoS, but it is meaningless to waste a DP debating on it. I am a bit suspicious of whiteflame for dragging out a convo to try to draw a lot more attention to it, a lot more than he usually does in these games.
I don't really get the sus on this. It may be different behavior from me, but as Luna has repeatedly pointed out, it's not characteristic of how I play scum. It's also not the first time I've dug in and placed a lot of attention on a claim as town.
whiteflame's relative dismissal of BKorea suspicious role while pushing at GreyParrot reads me as a bit scum, considering I haven't really seen him that aggressive in a DP in a while
I didn't dismiss it. I spent a lot of time hammering out what his actual claim was. Then, after he revealed his character claim, I said I have good reason to buy that claim as real, though I'll admit I'm leaving my reasoning for why I'm buying specific character claims out of my explanations so far. I don't view the role (Millionaire) as sus on its face. I didn't view the Prophet role as sus. I viewed the existence of a Prophet with a fake claim as sus.
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@JoeBob
So what’s going on?
The short explanation is that BK claimed the character Hazel Levesque and the role Millionaire. There was some confusion over his role initially. Here's the specifics of the role:
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@Greyparrot
I guess your theory is irrelevant anyway since you think the fake claim is also fake. You can keep your fake secrets, it means nothing.
Feels like you're deliberately misreading my posts. I said I believe your fake claim is your real claim.
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@Greyparrot
I really did go to sleep, I had a McDouble and then ate 2 slices of Serbian Pizza then I had a box of chicken stuffing. I always leave my computer running.
That doesn’t explain what happened as I described it. You went offline, I posted those questions, you came back online over an hour later, then went off for the next two hours before I posted my thoughts on your role. That wouldn’t have happened if you were just leaving your computer running.
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@Greyparrot
You can sus my decision if you want. I’m not giving scum an easy route to ram through fake claims by explaining how I think the character roster will shake out in this game.
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@AustinL0926
Ok, thx. Not super enlightening, probably Pie flavored it in some special way.
Suffice it to say that that’s not the only reason I don’t believe his claim. I gave another earlier (regarding the need for a fake claim). There’s a third, which regards both of the characters he has claimed (for the “real” and “fake” claims), but I’m going to keep that one to myself for now.
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