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@Vader
GP is a claimed TP.
You’ve got a lot of heat on you, and since much of that has gone either unanswered or dismissed as unimportant by you, I don’t blame you for somehow missing (or, I guess I should say, denying) that you’re part of this straightforward choice. Just because you flag different criteria than the ones you listed doesn’t mean it isn’t true.
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@Greyparrot
Whatever dude, I got another day to catch scum if you don't want Earth to answer those questions for whatever hidden reason you have.
Because I don’t see any reasoning you’ve given me for pursuing Earth like he’s scum. You’re dragging attention away from the central two lynch targets for the purpose of getting answers to questions that are all based on the supposition that this isn’t how Earth plays. You want to ask questions of him? Fine, I don’t really care. What I do care about is that it’s adding yet another distraction from what should be a very straightforward choice.
What’s more, and I can’t believe I’m the first one to suggest this, but this is obviously a distraction. If these questions are worth pursuing, it doesn’t have to be in this DP. This all comes off as an effort at deflection meant to draw attention off of you and Vader. The fact that anyone else is on board with this is just absurd.
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@Greyparrot
At least 2 people saw what I posted as suspicious.
Last I checked, that’s not enough to put someone at risk of a lynch. You want me and others on-board? Link the post in question. Point out what doesn’t make sense and why it’s a departure from Earth’s usual play. Because all I’m seeing so far is reasons why Earth is playing like… Earth.
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It’s very simple: if you want other people to join you in the pursuit of information or a lynch, then support your view. I’m willing to consider sussing Earth, but you have to do more than just say he said something off during DP1. Link posts. Show me a pattern. There are two viable lynches on the table already, so if you want us to put those aside, provide the reasoning that gets us there.
If not, then stop trying to complicate things unnecessarily and pick one of the viable lynches on the table, because you are not going to gather a solid wagon on someone by doing the bare minimum. Don’t care if you’re scum or town, that’s just bad play.
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@Greyparrot
Im just saying it warrants some pressure and some explanation.
And I’m saying that if you want other people to put down pressure with you, then you need to justify your sus. Point to specific posts from Earth that justify your sus. Stop half-assing this and prove your point that there’s something worth exploring here.
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@WyIted
On the contrary if he has no reason to town read him it indicates inside knowledge
Alright, spell this out for me. In which posts did he strongly suggest he had inside knowledge? Both you and GP are vaguely claiming that posts from the last DP make him obvious scum, so walk me through it.
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@Greyparrot
It's also a classic scum play to declare someone about to be lynched as town with no justification as the last post of the day and then start the next day off with "see I was right"
Again, compare to previous games with Earth. Is this unusual for him? It may be scummy if any random player was doing it but not scummy for him. You seem very certain I should be looking closely at Earth. I’m asking you for ways to support that view that could actually convince me. This won’t.
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@Greyparrot
You’re talking about this post? The one he made ~8 hours after Austin and I called Vader out on the 1X claim? That’s some time-lagged breadcrumbing.
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@Greyparrot
And let's be honest...Earth breadcrumbed your suspicion on Vader without Earth himself being committed. It's a classic scum play.
Where?
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@Greyparrot
TBH I am not so sure about Wylted being scum than I am sure Earth is. It's your choice to pressure or not.
I’ll consider it. Right now, I’d say he’s still pretty close to null for me.
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@ILikePie5
~24 hours remaining
For some reason, I messed up the timing, thought we didn’t have that much. My vote will stand, but that means everyone should be involved in this discussion at some stage.
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@Greyparrot
Really? Show me the exact post from DP1 that makes you think Earth is town.
A) I just said the main basis for my read on him came from his softclaim, which was in DP2.
B) I was null on Earth through DP1. No given post made me think he was town.
C) You’re the one claiming you knew something was up from a single post he made in DP1. The onus is on you to provide some reason why it’s scummy, which so far has involved 0 comparisons to past behavior. Not sure why you’re trying to flip this around on me or why WyIted has suddenly vanished from your argument entirely.
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@Greyparrot
Yes he was right...but zero justification? Why don't you pressure him?
Because I already have enough information from his softclaim to be less suspicious of him than I am of you and Vader.
Also, and this is something I’ve pointed out several times this DP, we need to stop saying that people are scummy because their behavior is off from what we’d expect from the average player. We’re comparing Earth to his previous games, not looking at his plays in a vacuum. A lack of justification for his not sussing a given player is not unusual for Earth. I might scumread it coming from Austin or Luna, but that doesn’t mean I’d treat it the same coming from Earth.
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@Greyparrot
From my POV, scum has a far better interest at least up to dp 5 to get me out of the game, as it's1) A free lynch with zero suspicion.2) One less person to fabricate a case against3) Almost certainly would not waste a night kill on.
Unless we don’t believe your claim. If you’re right about your claim, then I agree with the above.
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@Greyparrot
Just from what I scanned over from DP1...like when Earth claimed Joe was clearly town with no justification.
That’s one of them, but considering JoeBob flipped town, I’d say that’s a weak reason to sus him at this point. He was right.
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@Vader
So now you're just giving up on defending yourself. I guess that's a choice.
You realize that we were scum team and had a full list of roles that the town had
Honestly, I don't recall. I tried looking at the role list, but the link is now defunct.
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@Greyparrot
Are you sure on Vader tho? I sense Earth and Wylted are scummier.
You "sense" it? Why?
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@Greyparrot
Definitely do not have that, just a pretty good memory for crazy plays. Speaking of which, I do recall a game where Supa pulled a similar play, outing himself as the Doctor - had to dig back to find this. It took him until late into DP1 to claim the role, but it was a similarly ballsy claim that left him alive for multiple DPs afterwards despite suspicions. Also, weird if less meaningful coincidence between that game and this one: he also claimed to target me with his role.
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@Greyparrot
I don't think I have ever seen a game where the mod gave cop as a fake claim to scum team. It seems a bit overpowered.
Strange that you'd argue against the vote now after sheeping me. I've also never used that in support of my argument. My point is that not that Vader was likely given a Cop fakeclaim. My point is that he saw the Emissary, intuited that there is probably not a full Cop in the game, and made his claim with that in mind. It's ballsy play, to be sure, but it's not at all out of the realm of plausibility.
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@Best.Korea
@WyIted
@WyIted I'm willing to consider it, but for now, my vote stays where it is. I think we risk more by leaving two scum alive than we do by leaving a TP alive, so I'm not sure I agree that the best way to go is getting rid of the claimed TP. As for your position that Vader might be hiding a multiple use role... I don't really get it. It's extremely strange play to not only out oneself as he did at the beginning of the DP and claim a 1X use despite other claims and the flip not being so limited. Maybe this is a gambit to avoid being NK'd, but the obvious way to do that would have been to avoid giving results altogether. It's an odd way to play the role that puts him at much greater risk of being lynched, something he knows at this point.
@BK It's not so much the theme or behavior that's being used as a basis for sussing him, though that's part of it. I think we have a solid basis for sussing him that goes beyond those elements. That being said, both of these lynches are on the table for me and if everyone's that skiddish about lynching a claimed Cop, I'll change my vote.
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I guess Austin decided to pause there to get some sleep.
We've got about 11 hours before the DP ends and we need to come to a consensus on who we're lynching, so I'll be blunt: it comes down to Vader and GP for me. I'm fine with either one, but the one that looks scummiest to me is Vader. I've already explained why at length in multiple responses to him, and I think Austin does a good job giving those and other reasons why he comes off as scummy. His claim doesn't make sense in the context of every other claim so far (a 1X Cop in a sea of unlimited, uncommon claims and softclaims with an Emissary already confirmed) and his decision to out himself early in the DP makes little sense as town (copping someone innocent, particularly someone who isn't and hasn't been the subject of attention, and then outing himself as 1X to broadcast that he's no longer a useful target) are reason enough.
The reason I'm not writing GP off as my pick is that I'm still not convinced that there's even a TP in this game. I suspect, based on the collection of claims and softclaims in this game, that all seven of the main heroes of this series would be in this game. I'm certain there are at least 5 of those 7 in play. At the moment, I'm almost positive that It's unusual that one was just set aside as a fake claim. Maybe this is just too much modpsych and Pie included him as a character among the 12 that he'd originally planned only to remove him when the number dropped down to 10. Maybe. It just seems odd that, of all the roles he'd choose to keep from those 12 original selections, one would be Prophet of all things.
All that being said, I'm leaning more towards voting Vader right now. I don't want to lean too heavily on modpsych to make a decision this DP, and the Prophet claim just seems so strange for scum to use, given that it's almost always going to stand as alternative lynch. I do think Austin's theory about the "demigods vs. other" theme split is worth considering as well, and since Octavian is a demigod (as is Frank), that increases my uncertainty here.
And since we're not getting anywhere without voting, I'm going to put it down clearly: VTL Vader
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@AustinL0926
-It'd be nice to know whether someone has a "common" role or not. Obviously this is kinda subjective, but I noticed that when Pie puts some exotic roles, he goes all in with them, e.g. in the Governors Mafia where only 2 out of the 11 roles could be considered "standard".
Honestly, that sounds like a reasonable idea. You beat me to some of my thoughts about his claim. It is a bit of mod psych, but I also don't think it narrows down specifics about individual roles, so I'm fine providing it:
My role is uncommon.
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@Earth
Alright, then let me explain why I'm seeking it.
At the moment, we have two claimed informational roles on top of one flip that confirms we had a third. That's a lot already, particularly as the Emissary and Cop would function in similar respects (giving the person who has them a pretty solid indication of who is town and who is scum). It is still, however, remotely possible. Four informational roles, on the other hand, would be completely unbelievable, and would more solidly suggest that one of the claimed informational roles is scum.
Now, I say all that already having good reason to sus Vader on multiple levels, including his claim, so while it is not necessary for me to come to a decision on him, I do think it would be more persuasive for town as a whole.
All that being said, if you decide not to provide this information, I would understand that decision. You are not the only player left in the game who has not claimed (or softclaimed) a role, and I don't intend to go any deeper with this if you choose not to do so.
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@Earth
Now, you said "confirming". Do you mind elaborating on that?
For now, I'm just going to say I had a strong suspicion that you were in that group of 5 based on theme analysis and PoE. Would appreciate a response to my follow-up.
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@Earth
Thanks for confirming. And do you have either an investigator role or a number of shots with your role (e.g. 1X Cop like Vader has claimed)?
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A. Why do you townread him? You are saying that you townread him? Ok. Give me a reason why you townread him. What parts of his behavior in this DP lean as town?
Doesn’t seem like you’ve engaged with my reads from last DP, but fine. I think his logic falls in line with mine, much of which was posted before I could post similar ideas. His unwillingness to hop on the lynch last DP and his calling out people who were on it and holding them to it (myself included). He also hasn’t gotten defensive since you sussed him, has engaged pretty consistently, and his behavior matches what I saw in previous games where he was town.
B. Why do you townread BK? You give a few reasons as to why we should town read him but please explain more
I’ve actually given several already. Nothing’s changed since DP1 with regards to him, so it’s your choice if you want to engage with my prior read on him. I have nothing to add.
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@Vader
You let Ragnar go without a warning, yes you are sussing me. Why are you letting Ragnar off the hook but seem to put pressure on me for making the same mistake?
I didn’t let him off the hook. I asked him why he did it. He told me shortly thereafter. I have another reason for not sussing him over that, though I’ll also note that that would be my sole basis for sussing him, whereas for you it is not.
BK was my top scum read for his behavior analysis being wrong and his view of the game being different than when I've seen him play as town from 1-2 games I played.
I don’t recall seeing comparison to previous games in DP1 despite all your choices to sus him. Mind pointing back to that analysis? As for the rest of this, you’re sussing him based chiefly on his claiming an unconformable role. I’m not going to lynch him for that.
It also means that I am essentially useless in the next NP's, which hence I deem to be SoP claim.
The choice to announce that was interesting. I still don’t see an explanation for why your result had to be front-loaded. Aside from you and some very new players, I’ve almost never seen a Cop claim outright at the beginning of a DP just to out an innocent result, and I’ve never seen a veteran player do that when there was no pressure on them or the person they targeted. Maybe that’s just differences in mafia philosophy, but you seem like a major outlier.
The question is would you find it more scummy that I didn't claim til DP3-4 and said I'm a 1x and used it NP1, or would you rather me out it after I used the role?
I would have found it less scummy if you’d done that, though if I did want to full claim and out my result as you did, my instinct would have been to just claim the Cop role without the 1X use. I’d have bought that you made that choice to make yourself the most valuable target for the NK.
It is still a softclaim.
Yep, so soft it could have been entirely ignored or dismissed. I wasn’t expecting you to be obvious, but this doesn’t prove you were the.Cop.
I'm not addressing your theme analysis because I don't know the theme nor do I care to look up the theme. Respectfully I got a lot of better shit to do than look up this theme and try to see if your analysis makes sense.
So essentially “whiteflame has good theme analysis, but I have no interest in engaging with it.” Great, then it was a fluff response that only engaged with what you thought I was, and you already said multiple times that you thought I was town.
Anyway I am not gonna respond to this absolute horrendous notion of the only claimed 1x shot when Pie has literally had 1x in all of his games in the past. This is just digging to try to find anything
And hey, rounding it out with a complete dismissal of the point without recognizing what I’m saying. It’s not the existence of a 1X shot in any of Pie’s games that has me sussing your claim, it’s the existence of a 1X shot alongside absolutely no other X-shot claims. I can’t find a game of Pie’s that plays like that.
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@Barney
A few thoughts on GP...First, I don't fully understand the impulse to murder TP players. It feels more akin to a VNTL than scum hunting. I'm not opposed to it either, but with 48 hours remaining, there's no need to rush it (I'd prefer one less vote held on him, since if we pull attention to scum, they can lynch him to buy time).Second, with only one NK, it's pretty safe to say he's not secretly Area trying to murder us (haven't read the books, but I watched season 1 of the show).
I'll wait on Earth's claim/softclaim before going into this in more detail, but I do think there's more reason to lynch GP than just "he's TP." But yes, my theory that he was just a TP Vig hasn't held up.
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@Vader
@AustinL0926
Austin is moving more into my scum pile. He's blatently not listening to the reasoning behind why people are suspicious of voting BK and suspicion. There are valid reason into supporting him that I cleared out. I won't reiterate them because that's a waste of time at this current point.Like... I've read this five times and I still don't really understand what you're trying to say here. Are you saying I'm solely sus for not sussing BK? I already clarified that my townread of BK is based on thematic analysis as well as my understanding of his (somewhat erratic) behavior from previous games. That doesn't mean I'm clearing BK, but it means that I'm not going to blindly wagon on a lynch on him.
I also don't understand the basis for sussing Austin at this point. I'll admit, I had my concerns about him back in DP1, but I've only seen reasons to townread him in this DP. He's not a hard townread for me yet, but since I'm probably the most townread person still in this game, I might as well make one of my reads blatant: I read BK as town. I read him as town back in the last DP, too. It's not a completely solid townread, but he's as strong or stronger of a townread than anyone else currently in this game for me.
Also, I just don't understand the logic that Vader's approaching this DP with. He's arguing that we should still be suspicious of BK. Fine. I look back at those reasons presented in the last DP, and I note two things: one, he was scumread for not being onboard for the JoeBob lynch, and two, he was scumread for behavioral reasons. The former doesn't make sense since JoeBob flipped town. The latter makes far less sense for the same reason. This decision to jump on BK behaviorally must include some reason why his behavior is distinct from previous games, not just reasons to sus him in a vacuum. That's part of what got JoeBob lynched. It's not going to get BK lynched.
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@AustinL0926
That's reasonable enough.I usually don't softclaim because I think it draws unnecessary attention while not giving town much info. Also still traumatized by that one time I softclaimed a PR in the Governors Mafia and got immediately murdered.Anyway, my character is one of those five. My role is also not an x-shot ability, nor investigative, if that helps with mechanical analysis.
I know how you feel about softclaims, though I think we're in a good position to use the existing claims well and with yours now in play, I think the picture's coming together quite nicely. Will wait on Earth to see what he has to say, but I've got thoughts if he's also among those 5.
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@Vader
There are a bunch of oddities in your responses.
You rushed into the DP sussing BK most, who a) wasn’t on the lynch and b) had already claimed. I don’t understand that impetus to get a VTL up early with no justification just so that you can leave off for a while afterward. Strange, but not something I’d flag as scummy by itself.
Then there’s the push to get the cop claim out as soon as possible. You don’t really justify this - you just say that you “needed to get your results out before the DP”… why? There wasn’t attention on me at all by that point and there wasn’t a lot of sussing of me at the end of DP1. I can buy that you targeted me (even if your reason for not targeting BK sounds like weak WIFOM), but I can’t understand why you felt the need to out yourself so early.
And then there’s the way you claimed. You didn’t just say you were the Cop, you said you were the 1X Cop, an anti-town move that was in no way demanded by your choice to claim. You justify it by claiming that it loosely fits your justification (weak reason that sounds like reverse justification for a fake claim), and concerns about having to justify a lack of results if you survive, as though that’s particularly difficult to do. You also said that this was a softclaim: "if he says that it is essentially a cop, then he's scum and is lying." Yeah… I don’t see it. That’s a weak softclaim at best and easy to backpedal away from if someone calls you on it.
Also, does anyone else find it weird that Vader gave me a townie pat on the back for coming up with some decent theme analysis only to then pointedly not address it? He’s one of two characters alongside GP of all people that do not line up with the pretty obvious set of characters in this game. It comes off as either a given fake claim or a safe one given some distance from the main cast. It’s also strange that he hasn’t responded to the apparent fact (at least based on all the responses I’ve seen) that he’s the only claimed X-shot in this game.
In any case, since you’re busy, I’m going to leave my thoughts on Vader here. I’m still out and about, and I want to hear from Earth and Austin regarding some soft claims before I tackle my reads.
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@Earth
@AustinL0926
I’m pretty busy this morning so I won’t have time to post my thoughts on everything that happened overnight for a little while.
Regardless, I am going to pursue character soft claims from both Earth and Austin at this point (to my knowledge, everyone else has either claimed or soft claimed). For all I know, Austin already has soft claimed, in which case let me know which post you used to do that. If you haven’t soft claimed and cant think of one, just tell me if you’re one of the five characters I mentioned at the bottom of this post. We need that information at this point.
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@Earth
@Vader
@Best.Korea
Anyway, I'm off for the night, so I'm going to leave off with some things I'd like to see from certain players when they return.
Vader, there's a lot of reasoning on the table for sussing your claim and your choice to make it in the first place. You said you'd be busy today, but I hope tomorrow you'll be more involved and explain yourself.
Earth, you really need to be more involved in this DP. You should be posting a full set of reads. You have both this and the previous DP to work from, and so far, all I've seen is the same basic perspective that we should lynch GP and some uncertainties regarding Vader. You should have thoughts about other players by now. Post them.
BK, you should also be posting your reads at this point. You've said you don't want to lynch a claimed cop. Fine. There's new information on the table about WyIted that you haven't addressed. There are many other players still in this game. What's your preferred lynch and why? I don't care whether your town or scum, you should be doing more than just being frustrated that you weren't copped innocent and making nihilistic posts about how you're fucked and town is screwed. That's bullshit, it's a waste of time, and it's anti-town. That being said, it doesn't make you scum. So, participate.
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@AustinL0926
Regarding your thematic analysis, it looks solid. I would personally consider Nico more of a side character. Octavian and Rachel do stick out, but Rachel moreso I think.
Honestly, gratifying to know that. I never feel too secure in games where I'm doing thematic analysis on the fly because I just don't have the experience with it. I based this on a couple of pages I read through detailing many of the characters.
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@AustinL0926
it definitely should be a factor in everyone's behavioral reads on the participants on that flash wagon.
On that front, we agree. I've already explained what went into my decision, and it wasn't solely his claim, but also in how he claimed and then proceeded to modify his claim, as I've already stated. I do think it's worth considering what reasoning went into the lynch from each person who was on it, myself included.
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@Barney
I see. I didn't ship you into this universe, but I think I get what you're putting down.
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@Earth
I'm not expecting you to defend yourself, though I do think you should be providing reads at this point, and not just for me with little asides of confusion over Vader. Do you think GP is actually scum masquerading as a third party? Who else do you suspect?
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@Earth
Are we going to lynch Grey today or will town bark up the wrong tree again? Immensely frustrated with the JoeBob lynch.
Not like I'm going to defend myself for pursuing the lynch, but as someone who was entirely absent from the DP for almost 9 hours, including during that more pivotal time, I can't say I understand your frustrations as well as I do others who were active.
I do hope you'll be more active and have more to say this DP. Telling us we should just lynch the claimed third party and that it's odd Vader outed himself isn't much given how much has been posted so far.
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Just putting a note here. Despite all the pings he's received, Earth has not posted in this DP and he was online 13 minutes ago at the time of this post.
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So, I do want to start into theme analysis, even though I recognize there may not be enough to inform a decision this DP. Here are the current known claims/flips for characters:
BK: Hazel Levesque
WyIted: Reyna Ramirez-Arellano
Vader: Rachel Elizabeth Dare
GP: Octavian
JoeBob: Nico di Angelo
Lunatic: Piper McLean
Notable trends - Both Nico and Piper are listed among main characters for the series. Piper is a member of the seven heroes. Nico has been instrumental in assisting the seven heroes. While it is possible that some among the other 8 characters in this game are not main characters (and it might have helped Pie to do so), I think we can assume that the majority of other characters in this game fall into one of these two camps.
So, how well do they fit? Hazel is one of the seven heroes. Reyna is one of the main characters that falls outside the seven and is key to helping them. So they both fit what we see as a developing theme for these characters. I'll say this much: so does my character.
Octavian and Rachel do not. They're both in a long list of supporting characters. Know who makes the list of main characters (not to mention one of those seven heroes)? Frank Zhang, GP's supposed fake claim.
So, at the least at the moment, I see more reason to sus Vader and GP based on role alone. It's not a strong sus because it does seem plausible that minor characters would be in this game and the game was initially designed for 12 players, meaning that there must necessarily be more than the 10 main characters listed in his initial design. That being said, they're outliers, and it's the reason that the fake Frank Zhang claim stood out so much to me in DP1. Among the remaining characters I suspect are in this game based on what we know (or were at least planned to be before the number of players were reduced) are:
Jason Grace (one of the seven)
Leo Valdez (one of the seven)
Percy Jackson (one of the seven)
Annabeth Chase (one of the seven)
Gleeson Hedge (main character and mentor to the seven)
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@WyIted
That's interesting. Given the Emissary and your role are both potentially every night opportunities, and given that the claimed Prophet and Millionaire don't have shots, currently Vader is the only claimed X-shot role.
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@WyIted
As for WyIted's claim, that's interesting. I do have a very hard time believing that there is an Emissary, a 1X Cop and a Dreamer in this game. Out of curiosity, do you have a specific number of shots with Dreamer? I don't need or want a number.
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@AustinL0926
While I disagree with some aspects of how you characterized the basis my participation in the lynch, I nonetheless concede (as I have already) that I made an error in judgement and pushed the lynch too hastily. That being said, given that we had at least one known town on that lynch (Luna) who was actively aiming for it, and given that I was on it, heavily pushing for it at the time, and have been "copped innocent," (still not sure I believe that) it's hard for me to scumread it. Maybe that's just because I was a participant, but especially given how close we were to the end of the DP and the rush of posts that were occurring at the time, I can at least understand how WyIted as town could have decided to hammer. I wish I'd made a better decision, but I felt rushed due to a lack of time and didn't have the time to have a substantial back-and-forth over it.
To be clear, I'm not dismissing the possibility that WyIted is scum. This just isn't something I'd use as a substantial element in a decision to lynch him.
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@Earth
@Vader
I’ll also catch up tonight. Expecting posts by Vader and Earth before the DP gets much further along.
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@Greyparrot
Don't you think it's a bit weird for you to be targeted for an investigation?I thought it was clear after you explained your role that your actions were justified as a town player...
Harder for me to call that since Vader openly sussed me several times during the last DP. Admittedly, he sussed me for being against the lynch, and then apparently sussed me again because I was on the lynch, so I do want a better explanation for why he targeted me than “he had some scum moments and town moments.”
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