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@Lunatic
Let's keep in mind the vote you had on evil was clearly a reaction test, and first post 4 pages later doesn't even mention your vote on him, so whether it is actually OMGUS is really just your interpretation of things. If it was true omgus, I'd have expected him to at least mention the vote on him as reason for his reactionary vote
His first post came on the very next page, actually (not 4 pages later), was a direct response to me, and said this:
You are on my scum pile already. Why do you wanna eliminate me? I’m Vanila.Vtl WF
What part of that is an uncertain OMGUS response?
So where is the scum based calculation now? We know there are two scum, so is his scum partner okay with this lynch? Why isn't he guiding evil in a different direction? Evil basically seems to already be admitting defeat if you look at post 163. You guys keep expecting him to make a better argument for himself, if he was scum don't you think now would be about time to do that?
I'm not sure what his scum partner is doing. I think trying to consider that too deeply is likely to yield more uncertainty at this point than anything else, but I wouldn't be too terribly surprised if Pie was scum and was just bussing him. Also wouldn't be surprised if it was Poly, given his hesitancy to hop on the vote and his general oscillating on it. I also doubt Evil is someone who would be easy to work with as a scum partner, so even if he has a very experienced partner who is coaching him, I'm not sure he'd be making a convincing argument. That would partially explain Evil giving up. And no, at this point, I'm not looking for him to make a better argument. I don't think that there is anything he could say that would convince me at this stage, not based on what I've seen so far.
How serious do you actually think he was about lynching you, considering he didn't even vote you when he suggested it lol. And again, why you of all people? Scum don't calculate this out and say "Oh whiteflame will be an easy lynch, lets go for him and see who bites". That's a town move, and it takes balls. If you are town and genuinely interested in scum hunting, you do something like that. Sure he reason is probably horrible or whatever, but it's the motive we should be looking at.
...He did? Again, seems like you're just missing the very first post he gave in response to me. Already addressed the rest. I don't think it was a scum tactic. I think it was just how Evil operates.
I am not trying to mis-represent your point. If you are expecting some grand case from evil genius that makes his every decision sound like a brilliant one, you will be sorely dis-appointed is all I am saying. His reasons for suggesting your lynch may have been poor, but he never actually voted you or seriously put an effort into lynching you beyond that post, so he couldn't really substantiate a reason for "backing off of it" as you are suggesting he should. I think you are making a bigger deal out of his prospected motives then you ought to. That said I still think you believe this is a genuinely good lynch based on your comments here. Debating with you whether evil is behaving noob town vs scum with you is probably a waste of time. If he does flip scum I'll probably feel a fool anyway. I am mostly suspicious of this wagon based on other's votes and reasoning here making less sense than yours however. Pie in particular.
But you also haven't really addressed it, either. You keep pointing to elements that I've said do not influence my suspicions of him. I was never expecting a grand case, only some reason why he believes that some other players warrant attention. I haven't seen that. Have you? Either that or I was hoping to see him hop back on the lynch on me, particularly in response to my post analyzing multiple responses he's given in this DP. I would have townread a repeat OMGUS response from him. The lack of response is glaring to me.
What do you think of pie claiming evil was town when he responded to wylted's pressure early on? This was before evil ever even made a post. And now he is full send trying to lynch evil. What do you think of his reasoning of using the terms "us" and "We" as making evil scum indicative? Do you agree with pie that this verbiage is only used by scum, or do you see that as being oppertunistic at all?
I've got my suspicions of Pie. I also think that, like I said before, Evil's flip will be far more instructive to us on Pie than anything that has been said so far. You're right that Pie will likely dismiss it as just misreading noob behavior, but that doesn't mean that he'll get away scot free if he tries to do so. And yeah, I agree that his focus on the pronouns is silly. I also don't think it's necessary to make his point, and I don't think it's particularly useful for him if he is scum, so I can't read that either way.
For the record, I am literally the only person giving him noob pass right now, so you can just call me out by name here. Oh and btw you used the pronoun "we're". By pie's logic you are scum.
The impression I'm getting is that everyone who isn't on the lynch at the moment reads this as noob behavior. If this kind of thing was coming from one of the longer standing players, the lynch would already have gone through. You're the only one to specify that that is your reason, it doesn't mean that you're the only one giving him that pass.
And he was town in the pokemon game.. Hmmm
And I've pointed out the differences between his behavior in that game and in this one. So yes, if he had persisted in that response, I would have townread him for that.
Whiteflame assuming evil is lynched here, who is his scum partner? What type of communication do you see happening in the scum pm to allow him to do and say the things he's saying?
Talked about this earlier.
Evil being mislynched in pokemon: Y’all are making a mistake on this one and Disc is just misleading y’all.. can’t you all see ?Evil being lynched in vanilla mafia: I have told you guys repeatedly that I’m innocent but you don’t wanna give me a chance.
Can't say I'm convinced by the similarity. I think he has as much reason to give this response as town and as scum, don't see a reason to townread him over it.
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In general, I'm amazed we're giving Evil so many chances here. Anyone else would have been lynched by this point, and the only reason we're holding off is that some people see this as noob behavior. I respect that view, but we do have an actual history for Evil on this site. He's done this exact same thing before: he gave an OMGUS response to Disc as scum in the Pokemon game. He persisted in thinking it was Disc into the next DP when pressure was still on him, and yes, gave poor reasoning to support that decision. I don't sus the fact that he's giving poor reasoning. I think that's just what he does, and the fact that he's now saying shit like this:
My top 2 scum suspects are Pie & BronI have given my reasons already..
while blatantly ignoring the fact that he's never given reasons why he susses Pie and Bron beyond the fact that they are on the wagon to lynch him right now wouldn't be particularly unusual for him in a vacuum. If we weren't considering other facets of his behavior, like his about-face on the reason why he VTL'd me or his decision to parrot reasoning from both Luna and me as a means of making his behavior look more in line with the rest of us, then I would have good reason not to sus him here.
But his behavior is more than just ignoring calls to have him provide any reasoning for sussing others (still haven't seen it), or giving weird responses like this:
Out of character? That’s me right there!!! . I’m just worried that we have scum gunning for my town ass .. tell me who the scum is poly...
that go nowhere and only seem to invite more suspicion of why he'd even bother saying them. Maybe this is just him being a noob, but his behaviors have shifted from previous games and it shows. If this is him as town, then he's changing things up and it's not helping his game. I'm more inclined to believe he's scum, and I think he stands out the most at this point. I'll almost certainly be on him immediately during the next DP if there's not good reason to sus anyone else and we choose not to lynch him now. If Luna wants to push a lynch on Pie, then Evil's flip will certainly be instructive in that, so I don't know that we stand to lose anything meaningful by lynching him.
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@Lunatic
There wasn't a lynch on him though. He wasn't really any under pressure. Why does he suggest a lynch on you, someone he knows to be very active and one of the more convincing townies? All that would do is garner attention to himself. It's not like he said he knew y ou were scum or anything, he just was suggesting an idea to move the game forward, and didn't even cast his vote on you. You voted him first actually.
Several people mentioned sussing him for the OMGUS response, which was still going at the time. I agree that he wasn't under any actual vote pressure, but I'd be surprised if he didn't see the response he'd garnered up to that point. And, again, part of the problem here is that you're saying "why didn't Evil behave optimally if he is scum when given the opportunity?" rather than "how would the Evil we've gotten to know over the past couple of games behave?" When you ask why he would suggest a lynch on me, it's because I VTL'd him. I don't think there was any scum-based calculation involved in that choice, nor do I think the effort to push that lynch was scummy. I think he would do that if he's town as well. His decision to push the lynch, if he'd continued it or just decided that the lack of support meant he should hop off of it, would have led me to view him as null or even townread him.
Just because he's not effective at getting the ball rolling doesn't mean he genuinely didn't have an intention to. He was also never on the lynch to hop on. He is a bad luck brian meme here. He suggested an idea that got quickly shot down and turned oon him.
Again, I think you're misrepresenting my point. It's not the fact that he hopped off of the lynch that's scummy, it's the excuse he gave for hopping off that makes me sus him. I've already explained this multiple times, including in the post you responded to here, so I don't see much point in addressing it further.
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@Discipulus_Didicit
Aside from the more recent vote change from Evil (that'd be Pie (2/5) at this point), looks right to me.
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@Evilgenius
My new scum pile has PIE, BRON & WYLTED ..
No reasoning, and you chose all 3 people who were listed on your lynch (I should be on there as well). Wow.
I have told you guys repeatedly that I’m innocent but you don’t wanna give me a chance.
Lol, really? We’ve called on you multiple times to give reads and actual insights that could lead to a lynch on someone else, or even just to justify your own perspective on me. You’ve had a great deal of time to do that, multiple chances to respond to people like Pie and me who have challenged you to do better. It doesn’t make you look more innocent to assert your innocence, but it sure as hell looks guilty to throw out a victim mentality after all this.
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@Evilgenius
Lol , you go ahead and give us names. Have you read anyone besides me?
Evil, you’re the one currently garnering the most attention for a lynch. Right now, the only reason you have to lynch someone else is that we’d get information from it, and for some reason, lynching me is the best move to get said information. That’s not a particularly convincing argument and I’m actually surprised that you haven’t been lynched yet at this point. I don’t know why so many people are writing this off as noob behavior. You’ve parroted me when you flipped from “lynch WF because he’s scummy” to “I just wanted to rope him in” and now you’re parroting Luna in trying to push Poly into giving reads on others when he clearly susses you. I don’t mind getting reads from Poly, but you are currently the target of suspicion. Deflecting like this makes you look more sus.
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@Evilgenius
Out of character? That’s me right there!!! . I’m just worried that we have scum gunning for my town ass .. tell me who the scum is poly...
Seriously, it's like you're trying to stand out at this point.
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@Wylted
can we lynch lebron. I think at best he will just troll the game. At worst he is scum
Yeah... I'm not going to lynch him over an emoji, no matter how off color.
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@Lunatic
Actually, If you acknowledge the lynch wasn't likely to happen though, what real motive does he have as scum to push it? Feign activity? I mean he has put less effort than this before, and usually omgus's people as town. The effort to get the ball rolling here kind of looks townie. He's getting voted because of it, and considering how many times he has been mislynched lately I don't necessary blame him for shifting positions.
My impression, as I said earlier, is that his OMGUS response to me is just what he normally goes for, whether as scum or as town (hard to say if that's true because we haven't seen him as scum, but we have to infer as best we can). So, no, I don't think his goal was to feign activity. I think his goal was just to get frustrated that there was a lynch on him, and, as with Disc, push a lynch on the person he dislikes as a result.
I wouldn't have blamed him for eventually hopping off of the lynch. Hell, even his doing it now isn't particularly sus. It was more the excuse he gave - that he was just trying to rope me into the game - that stands out. That's clearly not what he was trying to do, and it's also virtually identical to what I told him after he sussed me for VTLing him early on. It's the nature of the decision to hop off the lynch, not so much the fact that he did hop off of it, that makes him sus to me.
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@Lunatic
I don't think evil is scum. What benefit does his strategy aid scum? It's kind of like poly in last game, it is so dumb its probably town.
I don't think his strategy does aid scum. I also don't think that Evil is terribly likely to play this tightly from a behavioral perspective. I get the impression that he responded as normal to me and pushed a lynch that definitely wasn't going to happen. He then shifted behaviors when he realized that people were sussing him based on his attempts to push the lynch. I don't see him giving up on the lynch that easily as town, but I do see it as entirely plausible that his scum partner would convince him to give up on the lynch and that he would gravitate towards similar reasoning to mine as a means to back out of it.
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@Evilgenius
Once again you are being led by mafia to lynch me. If I happen to be lynched on this DP please I want everyone to look CLOSELY at these two who are pressing hard to put me up on the chopping block. I’m vanilla and this misguided wagon is an effort to eliminate town.
Mind explaining the sudden shift in strategy for voting? Or providing some reason why I'm mafia? You are the one who said both that I'm apparently mafia and that you were just roping me in with your vote.
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@Evilgenius
I voted for WF because I just wanted to rope him deep in the game and that’s all it is to it.. not an OMGUS at all.. tbh, don’t take anything that happens in DP1 seriously.Unvote
Let's look back at what you said previously.
You are on my scum pile already. Why do you wanna eliminate me? I’m Vanila.
That indicated to me (and apparently to others) that you were taking my VTL on you seriously. But hey, maybe we misinterpreted you. Maybe we were just reading too deep into the second line on this first post of yours in the DP. Let's look at the next one:
I am Vanilla & I’m suggesting that we lynch WF so as to have the game move forward. We( town) are still the majority so a little sacrifice won’t cripple us. This lynch will help us narrow down our scum target since reading anyone is very tough at this moment.
That very clearly discusses the pursuit of a lynch, not just an attempt to get me to engage more. Maybe just a bit of inconsistency? How about the next post:
Yes! A lynch is gonna give us many clues .. trust me on this
Huh. Doubling down on the lynch as a means to obtain information. Interesting. So, what did you just say again?
I voted for WF because I just wanted to rope him deep in the game and that’s all it is to it.. not an OMGUS at all..
That... looks awfully familiar. What did I say in response to your VTL again?
I'm spurring activity by roping you into the action.
So you're parroting what I said to get people off of you who are sussing you for the OMGUS. I was honestly going to hop on and say that I still townread you for the OMGUS response. That probably would've been your better move, whether you are town or scum. But this course reversal and effort to look clean doesn't sit well with me. You didn't do this with Disc when you had the chance two games ago, so where'd that self-righteous attitude go?
VTL Evil
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@Ramshutu
What COVID lacks in mutation rate, it makes up for in the sheer volume of people being infected: if it’s 10x less mutable, but infects 10x as many people, the number of mutations is the same.
I’ll add a bit to this: it’s not just about the number of infected, but the viral titers among the infected. Part of the reason Delta stands out is that the actual quantity of virus is far higher in patients. That actually suggests that the degree to which it causes harm is lessened as compared with previous variants, since it takes more virus to yield similar symptoms. What it also does is create more opportunities for quasispecies to appear in individual patients. If you have 1000X increase in viral titers in patients, that’s 1000X greater likelihood of generating novel mutants in each patient, and particularly in those who get full blown infections with the virus active throughout their bodies (as opposed to vaccinated individuals where infections are generally more limited), that increases the odds that a given infection will yield more dangerous variants.
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Alright, up early so I can give some thoughts.
I can’t say that I see It Evil as a viable lynch choice based on his behavior so far. This looks just like his play from two games ago where he OMGUS’d Disc, and he was town there.
We could still choose between Luna and Pie, though that will depend on how much we feel their disagreements are hampering us. So far, I think not enough to warrant doing anything about it.
Wylted is active enough that I’d hesitate to get rid of him. Active scum hunting this early seems to be a stronger town tell for him.
That leaves Poly, Supa and Bron. I could see a lynch on any of those, though if I was basing it solely on activity, Bron or Supa would be it. Bron has mentioned Evil’s response to me as his sole analysis of the DP so far, and Supa hasn’t said anything meaningful aside from giving his impressions of the Luna/Pie spat.
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@ILikePie5
It’s my ninth wedding anniversary and I’m not super available as a result. I’ll pick up my engagement here tomorrow.
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@Tradesecret
Considering that they provided meaningful analysis, I’d say that their work speaks for itself.
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@Vader
I think I know what you’re talking about. There’s something to that one, even if it ends up being a whole lot less interesting than it probably should have.
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@Lunatic
@ILikePie5
As for this whole thing between Pie and Luna, maybe we should lynch one of you just to keep from digressing too much from the DP, but right now, I don't see a reason to escalate this. For now, you two try to play nice so that we can get something meaningful out of other players.
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@Evilgenius
You are on my scum pile already. Why do you wanna eliminate me? I’m Vanila.Vtl WF
Actually the response I was hoping for. OMGUS responses seem like they're pretty common for you in response to every vote against you, particularly if they're relatively baseless. Don't think you'd respond this way as scum, but considering I haven't seen you as scum, I can only lightly townread this response.
That being said, you shouldn't treat a VTL at this point as me trying to eliminate you. I'm spurring activity by roping you into the action. No one would join a lynch on you just because I happened to randomly select you out of the crowd anyway, so loosen up.
Unvote
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@Vader
It’s also the reason why the Grand Magic Games arc is probably the best, since it emphasizes their teamwork rather than individual fights.
I’d agree that Grey, Erza and Zeref probably have more well fleshed out stories than anyone else in the series.
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@Vader
It's the kind of show where I find myself tuning in almost like it's a Saturday morning cartoon: pulpy TV with a lot of color and sound that just makes you want to root for the main characters to win. You don't tune in for the emotional beats or the character development, unlike many of its contemporary Shonen (and it doesn't have their soaring moments that separated the Big 3 from the rest back in the day), but you appreciate it all the same for just having this fun team dynamic and the ridiculous caricatures. It's never done anything unforgivable during its run (*cough* Bleach *cough*), its plot twists don't break new ground, but it steers a relatively steady course with a pretty similar progression every arc. If I had to say one thing that separates it from the rest, though, it's that the main character isn't so much a single character. You could point to Natsu, Lucy and Gray, but in all honesty, the main character is the Fairy Tail guild as a whole. There's an emphasis on the group that you don't see nearly as much in Shonen, and that's probably the biggest thing the series has going for it.
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@Wylted
I think this analysis is wrong. The problem here might be overthinking. You didn't mess up by not analyzing enough. You had a doctor and watcher here on dp 3. Just flip a coin between poly and supa, lynch one then the next.Looking for ways both can exist as town, is just talking yourself out of an easy lynch.
Yep, I definitely overthought it. That kind of thing has always hurt me more than it's helped, though I'm trying to learn from each experience.
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@RationalMadman
I agree with most of this. However, I don't think he would have ever really wanted the kind of leadership position that Aizen occupied. He obviously liked having a team to work with, but I'm not really sure if you could say that he valued them tremendously. My impression was that he was always more of a lone wolf who allied with others out of convenience or necessity. I'm also not really sure what he'd do with it if he had the kind of total power that Aizen had over the Espada. I agree that I don't think he'd be nearly as stupid with it as Aizen was (in general, Aizen started to get real stupid during that arc), but he doesn't strike me as the type to execute tactical strikes against Soul Reapers. He also just doesn't seem like the type to get into the kind of situation that Aizen did. Grimmjow wouldn't have sought the King's Key, so that particular circumstance just plain never would've happened. Also, the impression I got from watching the series was that the Arrancar were satisfied having their own pseudo-fiefdoms or going it alone before Aizen came along. Even assuming they evolved in a manner similar to what we saw in the series without Aizen, I doubt they would have united under any Arrancar.
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@RationalMadman
I would be extremely, deeply interested in seeing a remake of Bleach from Grimmjow's perspective.
That would be intriguing. I think seeing the story from the Hollow side, in general, might be an interesting place to go with it.
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@Lunatic
Yeah, pretty much every gut check told me I should vote Supa. This is one game where I just got too into my own head in the end rather than considering whether scum would really behave as Poly was. Was all set to vote Supa at the start of the DP, and let some niggling factors push me away from the correct lynch.
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Well, that's on me. Still, well played on the whole, Supa. Definitely should've taken earlier behavior into greater account.
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@ILikePie5
*shrug* I'll take it, I messed up. Towards the end, I could see scum caring more about the Watcher than the Doc. Clearly didn't have the right of it.
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@Vader
The hard part was thinking of a fake claim for Doctor. Thought of Ken Jeong. Surprised no one pointed out the role claim but no character
Ken Jeong made sense to me. That wasn't a hard one to buy.
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@Vader
GG wp. We had a role that allowed to choose the roles that town had. We had 5 options and chose the one with no cop and no protective. Pie was a Friendly Neighbor
Damn, no wonder. Never would've guessed.
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@Vader
Damn, that was a ballsy claim dude. Especially after seeing you claim Doc as scum not too long ago. Gut said I should vote against you, but went with my head on this one.
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@Greyparrot
Yeah, the evidence I've seen stacks up against Poly. Post #75 from Poly still bugs me, since I've never seen Poly play this coy as scum before. The extremely early character claim is also uncharacteristic for him. The former I can explain as coaching from Speed, but the latter is a move I really wouldn't anticipate from Poly and probably happened on a whim if it's a fake claim.
If Supa really is scum here, then my hat is off to him because he set this up exceedingly well. I'm still mistrusting myself, but I don't think my view of what's happened up until now will change, so if I'm wrong, then so be it.
VTL Poly
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@Vader
I think it's only scummy because he could've confirmed that I did in fact visit whiteflame but instead went with someone else who was probably not a NK target
I think it’s valid to say that he chose poorly. I think it’s also valid to say that it’s neither a good move to fake nor one to have actually done, so it’s either a poor fake move by scum or a poor town move.
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@Greyparrot
@Vader
@Polyglot
The other thing that stands out to me is the justification. I'll rope in Wylted's since he was the other PR, but look at the four of our claims side-by-side:
Wylted's justification: Because you keep track of what’s going on in the world and aren’t just absorbed into the comedy scene, you are the tracker! Each night you can track a player to see who they visit.
Mine (paraphrased): You are largely immune to cancel culture and will remain iconic as a comedian.
Poly's (presumably paraphrased): Andrew Schultz is great at roasting the crowd. He has a good skill of looking, watching, and surveying the crowd and finding his next needed person to roast.
Supa's (paraphrased): My justification was that before I did stand up comedy, I was a physician where later, I would play a doctor in a TV series
Aside from Poly's justification, the rest of these mention the link to the role. They don't emphasize it. Only Poly's goes through the extra effort of providing two synonyms to bring the point home. Honestly, if it had stopped at the first sentence, I'd have an easier time buying his claim.
There's just a lot of discrepancies in Poly's claim and behavior that stand out. I was really only sussing Supa based on his behavior early in the game, but Speed sussed him decently hard (saying we should lynch him in the next DP if he's not dead during that NP) in a way that looked distinctly different from his normal bussing, the Doc role just makes more sense and was claimed early enough that it would have been incredibly risky for scum to fake, and the lack of a night kill supports the notion that scum tried to kill me and failed. I do think it's odd that scum sought to kill me at all since I was the obvious target (maybe they thought Supa would Doc himself or something), but right now, that's the only thing keeping me from locking in a VTL on Poly.
I'd like thoughts from GP before I proceed, but I'll also be considering this for a while longer myself.
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@Polyglot
Well if I think that you are scum then that leaves the viable options as Whiteflame or Greyparrot (Not watching myself).If scum(you) had killed greyparrot that would have left me, Supa, and Whiteflame. And I’m sure you would have left the last day phase to convince Whiteflame to mislynch me which you are doing now.
Much as that logic makes some sense to me (at least insofar as eliminating Supa as a potential target), I'm still not quite sure why you'd do this. Scum had two potential targets between GP and me. One of us is absolutely guaranteed to be town, the other at least has some room for uncertainty. One of us has been actively leading lynches, the other has been acting more in a supporting capacity (no shade at GP - Innocent Child is supposed to do this). I honestly can't remember a game where the Innocent Child wasn't dead before the last DP, and while there are incentives for NKing someone who is not the most town confirmed at this late stage, I can't see how scum would come to the conclusion that it's better to keep me alive than it is to keep GP alive at this point.
All that being said, I'm not quite sure why scum would pretend that GP was their selection. You could have just said that you targeted me and saw no one visit. It's just a weird choice all around, but it's hard to view it as obviously scummy.
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@Polyglot
Is it ever possible for scum to choose not to kill someone?
Yes. Wouldn't be the first time it had happened.
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@Vader
@Polyglot
I watched greyparrot last night and no one visited him.
...Why GP? Honestly, this is the most sus this you've said so far. I was the obvious target for the NK, perhaps with you as the other plausible target. At minimum, if you were town, you could have verified that Supa had or hadn't Doc'd me. Picking GP just seems like an easy cop out so that you can say that nothing happened to him, which would have been the obvious assumption.
My justification as watcher is that Andrew Schultz is great at roasting the crowd. He has a good skill of looking, watching, and surveying the crowd and finding his next needed person to roast.
I'll come back to this.
Supa, could you paraphrase your justification? I want to check something.
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@Greyparrot
Mainly just waiting on Poly to answer those questions. Could shift my perspective depending on how he answers.
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@Greyparrot
There are other factors as well. Being RB'd two rounds in a row with a claimed Doc on the board seems a little odd when Poly hadn't claimed, though perhaps that was just a bit of POE on their part. Even stranger, knowing that they were going to Janitor Pie, scum chose to risk the possible Doc on him rather than risk the unknown PR from Poly. It's one thing to know you can get through the Doc with a Strongman and using your RB elsewhere, quite another to use the Janitor and just hope for the best with the one role you know can stop it.
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@Greyparrot
Ok here is what I got.post 272 is a hardclaim Doctor on DP1 but what's so amazingly weird is that Supa softclaimed on post 172!!!... I doubt scum would just do that purposefully.And looking on DP1 post #149, I find it hard to believe Speedrace would play hard bus on DP1. Speed also tried to deflect from poly subtly.Thoughts?
Beneficial information. There's a lot I'm still thinking on here, though I'll note that Poly softclaimed his character in his first post in DP1:
Hey guys. Love comedy and jokes. This should be fun. A joke is just like a paintbrush.
That's a line from Andrew Shulz. I will note that, of all the characters claimed in this game, he's also the only one I've never heard of before now. Could still be a valid pick - my lack of knowledge about comedians certainly shouldn't be the standard by which we select who is scum - but that paired with the fact that he is a Watcher (I don't find it super odd that we have two investigative roles) who has never been the target of the NK certainly stands out to me. The back and forth with Wylted also spoke to trying to protect his identity perhaps more than he should have.
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@Vader
Ah, I believe I misread that. The flip does say 1X, so yes, it is plausible that the Strongman is also 1X.
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@Greyparrot
i'm leaning to supa tho as scum...he never did say who his targets were every np
I've got my theories, though I'd like to see both Poly and Supa respond to my post before I lay my thoughts out fully. I have a theory as to how the NP played out and why, but I'd like to see it verified.
And no, the Innocent Child is the only role that is 100% locked into being town. To change that would be a pretty awful move from Luna.
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Alright, going to take this DP nice and slow for now. Didn't want the last one to end that quickly, but that was my mistake - shouldn't have put my vote down on anyone until I was entirely decided.
I'm largely going to start from scratch here because I feel like I've missed something in the previous couple of DPs. Clearly, my theory was wrong as well, so while I am considering the theme split, I'm becoming increasingly aware of how difficult it may be to discern, so I'm not going to rely on that.
We supposedly have two PRs still left in this game. Much as I can understand being the target of the NK during during the last NP as the sole town confirmed player, that's surprising. It's particularly surprising that we still have a Watcher in the game.
Poly, who did you target during the last NP and what is the justification for your role?
I'm also thinking about the circumstances that led to no NKs during the last NP. That might be because Supa Doc'd me, though I'll note as well that that would mean that scum is out of whatever role (most likely Strongman) that allowed them to kill Wylted during the last NP. That is possible, especially if we consider that they have a number of shots that they have already spent. The problem I have there is that we have two PR's (the scum Janitor and the town Tracker) that have already been flipped and neither of them have a specific number of shots. Supa's claim that he Doc'd me reads as convenient to me.
Right now, GP's the only one I'm not strongly considering, though I'm looking back through the last 2 DPs to make sure I'm not overlooking anything.
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Actually, I want to fully consider this before I push a lynch. Something I'm considering here as well is how the Janitor on Pie has affected the game. We've had multiple claims past the start of DP2:
My Innocent Child (verified)
Wylted's Tracker (verified)
Speed's Vanilla (fake claim)
Evil's Vanilla (uncertain)
Poly's Watcher (uncertain)
So, three options: Pie had a role that scum couldn't use (they would claim Vanilla), Pie was Vanilla (they would claim Vanilla), or Pie was the Watcher (they would claim the Watcher). That last one is nagging at me. It's possible that Poly faked being RB'd in both DPs and simply used the claim that he got from Pie. I don't think that's likely, but I also think there's value in considering it for now.
Poly, could you give me your justification for the Watcher role?
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