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@WyIted
If lunatic confirms mikal and earth has the justice the scum team is probably Pie and banana. The bodyguard was a pretty good fake claim in that spot and a great opportunity to cast shade on some people that just didn't smell right
Who claimed bodyguard?
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going to lay in bed and try to crash, may post a few more from my phone while I wind down, but i'll be on this evening.
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okay so earth is town, and whoever gave him the justice is probably town as well. Thats too crazy of a claim to make, unless its a gambit. Gonna have to rethink some of my town reads, specifically banana, but shes back in the poe with wylted and mikal now.
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Casey dying is really unfortunate, she was one of my stronger town reads. Anyways, I am going to post some quick reads before bed.
Mharman- Town- He's been confirmed through savant, behaviorally he was also town, not much to say here.
Banana- Probably town- I doubt she is gambiting here, unless her partner encouraged the gambit, which is possible if it was maybe wylted, pie, mikal or some experienced mafia player who would do that. But the justification seems legit, and it matches play from her in russian mafia, so I am leaning more she is likely just town.
Earth- Null/scum lean- Hasn't provided anything really useful all game and I have no ability to analyze him. He needs to be active today, hell even bad play would be easier to town read him on then what he's giving us now, which is nothing. He's flying under the radar which is what I would expect him to do as scum, so right now earth is pinging my radar.
Pie- Null/ possibly scum- Largely to POE, but pie has been active as usual but I don't feel like he's really taken the reigns the way he has in other games as town, other than pinging people for activity. I am a little worried that casey died after scum reading him for most of the day phase, I don't really see a whole lot of reason for scum to hit casey unless they were aiming for power roles, because she wasn't particularly extremely active or anything. I don't expect you to respond to any of this pie, its more just gut tinging, and a back and forth here is largely useless, just don't have anything to really solidify you as town, other than agreeing with your banana read from last day phase.
Wylted- Null/scum- I get the feeling he is lying about his role, the justification is wild and really doesn't make any sense. His read on mharman was really just bad, and its worse now that we know it was wrong via savants death. I do expect scum wylted to push that hard on a townie lynch as well, it is very in meta for him. He took common mharman reads and amplified them and took crazy tangents on them to turn them into a case against him, and luckily it didn't go through. Wylted I think will be a focal point for today.
Mikal- Null- Needs to be active today, or we lynch him.
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Driving home atm I’ll go to bed very soon but I’ll try to post some thoughts before I do
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@ILikePie5
I have town confirmation of someone not sure there’s a need to say who yet. Also I am not an investigation role I just know someone is town.
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Current Mafia:
None
Sign ups:
Whiteflame - Microbiology
In the Hopper:
Earth - Tales of Symphonia/Xenogears/Skyrim Mafia
iLikePie5
Lunatic
On hold
Mharman
Wylted - Lulsec
Casey Risk - Deltarune Mafia
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I am going to bed here soon. Yeah I am down with savant for the banana push. It will also confirm mharman if he is town, so its a win win.
vtl savant
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@Savant
Again, what makes you think she read the whole thread before then and even thought it was a cc?
She asked for a catch up post and was provided one with plenty of time before the claim. She would have at least known mharman was claiming doctor, and even mentioned she noticed pies claim list so this is moot.
Yeah but she still gets a mislynch at the cost of "looking bad."
Horrible trade, generally not worth it the risk, and which huge backfire potential, very unlikely. She's only had two scum games and she's never done anything like that as scum before also.
But that was a direct cc, here banana is saying maybe their roles are similar and also probably didn't even realize it was a cc. Her reaction doesn't indicate she realized that until someone else pointed it out.
It wasn't a direct CC, she was claiming part of her role description was a CC of earths role description, both were different characters. If I remember Ivan the Great VS Ivan the Terrible. This also wasn't a direct CC, so its very similar to that game actually.
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@Savant
Don't remember that one. Did she use an exclamation mark?
I mean does it matter? That seems about as relevant as wylted's point about mharman using the word "here" as scum. Its just a bad reason in general.
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@Savant
What makes you think she knew it was a counter claim? If she'd accused WyIted of lying that would be different, but she just said "how did you know?" when Casey asked if she was town protective. Banana has admitted before to not reading through the whole thread. Also, scum banana can act like it's a big deal now and then after a mislynch claim a role that's not really a cc at all.
1. It wasn't a direct CC, which if scum she could have done .
2. It makes her look bad if she CC'es and mharman/you aren't lying, whats the scum strategy here?
3. The same thing happened in russian mafia when she was town CC'ing earth, so its more likely shes just telling the truth again here.
At worst, all three of you are town here and there was multiple protection roles. I was kind of leaning that way before you pounced on her a bit opportunistically right off of earths comment supporting you, earth who is also in my POE. It's a bad lynch all around, and if banana faked this as scum its incredibly risky, and will most likely backfire on her anyway, its more likely she's just actually town here.
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Yeah the banana push looks real bad. I think Im leaning savant at this point. She's the CC'er, and hes pushing her because she used some explanation marks lol. Thats a bit fishy to me.
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Well we need to figure out who to lynch in less than 12 hours, and I am usually asleep through the day. Hopefully we can reach a consensus soon, otherwise I am voting mikal or earth. Probably mikal. I do agree the multiple protections are wierd though and I don't know who is scummiest between all of them, but it makes me question my earlier town read of savant and mharman, I'll give you that.
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@ILikePie5
I think you should tbh.Luna, Casey, Wylted? What do yall think?
I mean its a lot of claims, but shes basically already outted shes protective, I dont know the information shes already put out kind of means it doesn't matter if she does or not. I think she is town for the record, 0 reason for her to do this as scum, doing this would be more to help identify if there are just two actual character with the same name types though, so I vote yes.
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@iamanabanana
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@iamanabanana
How did you find out? What!
So you ARE a protective role? hmmmm.....
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@ILikePie5
Savant/XDon’t know the partner yet.
I am not really sold on savant even though I admit its technically possible, I think its more likely him and mharman are both just town.
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@iamanabanana
Hi, I am here. There are sooooooooo many posts. I will try and read them eventually, but can someone give me a short catch up post with the major details in it for now?
Wylted suspects mharman: https://www.debateart.com/forum/topics/12816-microbiology-mafia-dp1?page=7&post_number=195
Savant claims doctor enabler: https://www.debateart.com/forum/topics/12816-microbiology-mafia-dp1?page=10&post_number=278
Mharman claims doctor: https://www.debateart.com/forum/topics/12816-microbiology-mafia-dp1?page=11&post_number=325
Casey and a few others suspects pie: https://www.debateart.com/forum/topics/12816-microbiology-mafia-dp1?page=17&post_number=506
Theres so much more but much of the phase has been centered around these talking points it seems.
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@ILikePie5
What? Is your proposed scum team savant/wylted? I am confused.
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@WyIted
If you even agreed with one part of the case I am not sure why your vote wasn't on mharman prior to his claim.
The part I agreed with is that mharman doesn't seem as active and interested as scum, and while in the first few pages I can kind of see how it can be percieved that way, ultimately I don't think it's similar at all. I mean he is posting almost three times as much as he did in black ops, and he isn't as defensive as here as I remember him being in villainous villains and in black ops. Also he claimed a major protective role, which helps his case a ton. For him to be scum I also have to believe that savant is his scum buddy and they are attempting the gambit of the century, these are not the players I would expect to make said gambit either.
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@WyIted
You guys don't understand. It's not about agreeing and it honestly took a long time for you to just say it feels like confirmation bias like maybe I am more inclined to call something fluff in his scum game that I could interpret differently in his town game to maybe subconsciously justify to myself the read. It took a while but that's something.I don't care about being right at all. I just want to be understood.It drives me crazy when people do not understand me or misinterpret me, and I hope you guys feel like I am engaging with the premises behind your reads when you give them
I don't know how to respond to this, other than point out that it makes me feel you are probably town even more so. All I can say is you have a case, and ultimately it doesn't convince me. I've pointed out the reasons why, and I am sorry if you feel I am misunderstanding you, I am not just dismissing these points out of hand, though to me they just generally aren't that hard hitting, and he has enough town tells that make it hard for me to see it. I don't think I am misunderstanding you, just see it from a different POV is all.
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@WyIted
Yeah I get that but I also showed a town game where he didn't do that stuff and a scum game where he did do it so it shows behavior more inline with what we saw in his scum games. There could be a confounding variable but nobody is suggesting that they just don't seem to get the case at all. I just want it understood. When I fed that post to AI it said that it's a non linear case and people struggle to follow non linear cases but I just put in effort that I really shouldn't have and it feels like it's ignored or dismissed and nobody is taking the time to understand the case at all.I don't even mind being wrong but the lack of engagement feels disrespectful, particularly after I was asked for it and reluctantly agreed to give it.
It was also pointed out to you that certain points like the "mharman uses the word 'here' as scum" were also just outright wrong and several town games of mharmans were pointed out to demonstrate that. You are seemingly trying to pick and choose the things that stand out as mharman being scummy to you and amplify them as being more than they are. If you are correct on this in the end, I will feel like an @sshole, but I just have fallen victim to confirmation bias many times myself, and I am seeing signs of it here. Genuinely not trying to be a contrarian here and even tried giving you credit for the parts of your case I agreed with.
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@ILikePie5
When you’re caught up, list who you are willing to lynch and why
Caught up, and just did. Right now I'm leaning the inactives, banana, mikal, or earth.
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As for pie, I don't strongly read him one way or the other. I don't think him pushing for wylteds details are scummy, and I get his frustration on "details matter" because scum don't want to focus on those, the little details are what catches them in scum slips. But we also have 3 claims on the board and I don't think I suspect pie enough to fully lynch him.
I'd rather random lynch banana or Mikal here, I'd consider maybe lynching earth due to inactivity and non contribution as well, but an inactive lynch is better than a mislynch, and I currently don't like any of the presented options of mharman, savant, pie, or wylted. Wylted could be scum, but I am thinking more hes just an overpassionate townie falling victim to confirmation bias, I don't really see scum wylted pushing this hard, or getting "demoralized" about people not liking or agreeing with his case.
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@WyIted
Why do people even ask me to explain my reads at all at this point at all.I don't know how it's a weird conspiracy tanget to point out something is fluff and take several examples of the same behavior and examine a scum and town game to see which one the behavior is more consistent with
Its not that your wrong, its just that fluff isn't a scum tell. It can be in certain scenarios, but Its a really weak argument in general. Same with buddying. Town buddy all the time. Thats 2/3's of your case right there. It's not that your wrong, its just that you are looking for any reason for your mharman case to be true, so you are adding wieght to points that are kind of weightless.
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@WyIted
I already explained. Lunatic would try hard as scum right now and Casey is obvious to me normally on DP1 but everyone calls my cases bullshit so I always have to wait until mylo to get her
Your cases aren't complete bs. They start out fine, but take wierd conspiracy tangets the longer you read into something is all. Both me and pie agree in general what mharmans scum tells are, but I think your case went a little sideways on a few of the points you were making is all.
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@ILikePie5
If Mharman is scum, Savant is always scum.If Savant is scum, Mharman can still be townJustification for Savant is non-existent.
True, savant can be scum, but he would have gambled the existence of a doctor here if so, or I guess he could have asked the question. I think it's also probable they are just both town though.
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@WyIted
Well behaviorally mharman is actually scum. He doesn't fluff that much as town from the game I pulled up, his reads are less non committal as town . As town he doesn't seem to be into appeasement but he seems to be this game . Etc .Why would a member of town exhibit scum behavior?
Perception is in the eye of the beerholder, I mean beholder. Earth for example is constantly mislynched for "exhibiting scum behavior". Maybe it's not his behavior that needs to be analyzed, its our view of his behavior. I get that you've spent a large amount of time investing in this case, but I suspect, if not just scum, you may be victim to confirmation bias here. We all fall for it sometimes.
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@Casey_Risk
Anyone else getting the vibe that Savant and Mharman are a team?
I would be incredibly surprised if they were, but its not out of the realm of possibility. Its just an extremely ballsy move and I wouldn't expect scum to make it dp1.
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@WyIted
I think we need to clear savant first. For mharman to be scum than savant has to be scum but if mharman is town than it means savant can be scum. If all possible worlds it is now more likely savant is scum than mharmanUnvote VTL savant
Okay I am now severely starting to doubt my earlier town read on you.
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@Savant
Nevermind, I see I am responding to posts out of order, you said he was a townlock. MB.
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@Savant
At this point, I'd rather pursue a lynch on Mharman than go after anyone else for a claim. I mean, if his claim can prove his innocence, he'll give it before we lynch him anyway.
WHAT?! YOUR ROLE LITERALLY CONFIRMS THE EXISTENCE OF A DOCTOR. Why would you EVER lynch mharman here?!
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@WyIted
I don't think there is a doctor in the game. I think scum asked if a doctor was in the game and the mod said no and so they both made claims around it. I am willing to lynch savant first I'd it town confirms mharman though and explore new theories. If savant is scum it confirms my theory
Wow you actually think they are pulling a scum gambit?! come one dude
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@Mharman
Fuck it I’m dragging out progress at this point.I am the doctor.I obviously have reason to townread Savant now. I was trying to play dumb about it for the sake of a minmax that doesn’t matter anymore.
Okay you two are town, or this is t he craziest mafia gambit I've ever seen.
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@Savant
I'm the enabler. When I die, the doctor role stops working.
Interesting. Did you consider lying about your claim? Not judging your play just asking as im generally curious about your thought process in claiming here. Sometimes lying can backfire and its best to be honest if you aren't good at it, so again not judging just wondering if you didn't think you could pull off a good enough townie lie here.
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@Casey_Risk
Idk, rereading the back and forth between Savant and Wylted, it doesn't feel staged to me. I am having a hard time reading them, however. I will say that the only other time I can remember Wylted building a whole case against someone was in Heroic Heroes, where he was scum. He did say that he went back to look at my previous posts to judge me in UPick, however, and correctly figured out that I was scum. So there's that.
He also was saying I was for sure scum in castlevania mafia too, though I think it was mostly omgus after I ad caught him on many slips.
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Not caught up on the last few pages but I will catch up tonight. I’m about to go into a sleep coma again, night yall.
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@ILikePie5
Savant is in my POE, he hasn't really done a ton to make me town read him, and I am confused by his reads a bit. Also down to pressure banana since she hasn't posted more than twice.
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@Savant
It's not really that much work. If I had to say "this person feels town or scum" I would just end up hyper focusing on a few points, there's no way to intuitively account for dozens of pieces of information while also accounting for biases.
I guess my brain works differently, I would just tell myself not to hyperfocus in that case, but different things work for different people.
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@Savant
Do you think this formula helps you significantly, as opposed to just saying "This person feels town or scum" Does the percentage really impact the reads much? I just wonder if all that extra effort and coding is worth it in the end.
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@WyIted
Bro I pulled up a town game and showed how he doesn't do it there and his fluffing wasn't limited to the early part of the DP
I'd expect him to double down and be more defensive as scum, rather than just trying to avoid playing to a playstyle. That is at least consistent with the times I've seen mharman play as scum (most recently in black ops mafia in his defense to banana, and villainous villains where he was lynched as third party). He tends to fight back and kind of make himself look worse, where as in this situation he just seems non-plussed about it, and is still inquiring elsewhere and not solely focused on his own scum read, or really making a big deal of it.
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@ILikePie5
Behaviorally yes. Just the way he is posting is different. He claimed he’s using AI now to post, which could mask it, but it’s still odd to me. The only thing going for him is his character, which I’m confident is in the game. Whether it’s scum or town is a separate question. Mycobacterium is most famous for causing TB and Leprosy
okay, assuming he is scum, what about what he is doing is specifically scummy? Or is it just inherently scummy because it's "different" from how he has played before? Is playing differently always scummy?
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@ILikePie5
Are you still scum reading wylted after he explained the chat gpt thing? I buy it honestly, and his push on mharman feels pretty townie, whether he's right or wrong. Reminds me of when he was pushing austin in casey's game, he was super passionate about it like this, and was saying the same type of sh1t "He's confirmed scum etc etc". Wylted gets really confident when he thinks hes got a lead. I see him do it as scum too, but the passion is kind of missing from it, ya know? Like he is happy to get the lynch but doesn't care either way and is willing to switch votes to any mislynch target. He's staying pretty on course with the mharman read which I think is a good sign so far.
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As far as mikal goes, I say if we have no other leads by the end of the day phase we can lynch him, otherwise I am basically fine waiting for him to finish moving. It would basically be a random lynch, which I do not support unless the alternative is a no lynch.
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