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@ILikePie5
Game over after 2 DPs? Is that really something you think DD would sanction as a possibility?
Well no, but it more depends on whether speed took all of his advice or not. When I was in oregon visiting my mom and had to miss speeds MCU villains game, he asked me to review his game balance for him. I gave him a huge list of advice and suggested changes and he changed like one scum role. This isn't to call out speed for being a bad mod or anything, just saying if he didn't listen to me he might not have listened to DD much either.
That and he wouldn't have predicted hider would have died np1. That was really unlucky, combined with mike throwing the game for town.
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We should operate under the assumption there is 3 scum, to stay on the safe side. If we mislynch whiteflame today, and they succesfully night kill tonight, it's game over.
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@ILikePie5
Your message wouldn't have gone to her if she actively hid btw. Hiders are untargetable.
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Sh1t. If there are three scum, and that is likely based on the numbers, we are really screwed here.
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@ILikePie5
Well, this changes things. You’re probably going to have to be the policy lynch today
He has to be lynched at some point, since scum won't kill him. But it doesn't have to be today. If we lynch correctly today we can afford to do it again tomorrow, and with claims playing out the way they are, GP or water has to be scum. I am really leaning GP at this point.
If we succesfully lynch we have a bit more leeway to lynch him later. That said, it's still a bit of a gamble.
Mislynch today wf today, tomorrow its 2 v 4. We'll probably have enough POE at that point to guarantee a scum lynch I'd hope, but we could no lynch for a dp4 2v3 at that point if we weren't feeling confident. Then we HAVE to scum lynch or lose twice in a row.
I am trying to think what options best. Because likely one of supa or warren dies tonight. If water is actually town, scum have to gamble the kill on one or the other or decide to kill water, who is a mislynch target but if he is doctor, still a threat. I am thinking worst case scenario though, and it is likely we just lose a confirmed townie and are in roughly the same spot tomorrow. So we could just try and lynch scum today, and save whiteflame for tomorrow. Wyt?
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Dead
Drafter- Redwing- Watcher- Town
Danielle- Falcon Wings- Hider- Town
Elminster- Stormbreaker- Vanilla- Town
Full Claim
SupaDudz - Gjallerhorn - Innocent Child
GreyParrot - Ironman Suit MK 1 - BP
WaterPhoenix - Kimoyo Beads - Doctor (protected GP Np1)
Lunatic - Gungnir - Vanilla
Crocodile - Ronan's Hammer - Vanilla
Warren- Caps Shield- 2x cop (Copped whiteflame innocent np1)
ILikePie5 - Nick Fury's Pager - Messenger (Messaged danielle np1)
whiteflame - Infinity Gauntlet - Hated townie
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Pie's night action, explanation for his actions, and role justification all make complete sense to me. Not going to dis-regard him completely, because scum messenger is likely still. But he gets some brownie points here.
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@Speedrace
No I'm just an idiot lol, I thought I set it for 72 hrs, that's my badDP will end 2 CST tomorrow
Yay!
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@ILikePie5
What are basing your slight town read for him on?
His reaction to water's results, and subsequent realization of the mistake. Scum probably would have noticed the mistake immediately, as it could be used as ammo for a mislynch.
Another possibility is that he and water are scum buddies, and he told water to claim what he did because he also forgot that he was bulletproof? I am doubting that, Whiteflame has seemed pretty keen and aware of other players and roles in this game, even claiming to piece together drafter was watcher. Which still kind of pings my alerts.
It's a very slight town read though, and I would still really like a claim from him.
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Dead
Drafter- Redwing- Watcher- Town
Danielle- Falcon Wings- Hider- Town
Elminster- Stormbreaker- Vanilla- Town
Full Claim
SupaDudz - Gjallerhorn - Innocent Child
GreyParrot - Ironman Suit MK 1 - BP
WaterPhoenix - Kimoyo Beads - Doctor (protected GP Np1)
Lunatic - Gungnir - Vanilla
Crocodile - Ronan's Hammer - Vanilla
Warren- Caps Shield- 2x cop (Copped whiteflame innocent np1)
ILikePie5 - Nick Fury's Pager - Messenger (Messaged danielle np1)
Partial Claim
whiteflame - Infinity Gauntlet - ????
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I feel like crap for not realizing this was a 48 hour phase. I really just didn't feel like playing thursday because I was so pissed at mikal, and now the day phase might end in a no lynch lol.
We need these last two claims in less than 3 hours and we need to try and lynch. If we can't get the lynch, it is what it is. But we should at least try. I am okay with being lynched if there is enough doubt between the my and croc dynamic, because my flip should basically confirm croc. Then mafia have to choose between one of the power roles tonight or basically another confirmed townie, also the POE next day phase should be monumentally helpful.
IDC who we lynch as long as it is within the POE pile.
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@whiteflame
@warren42
Shoot. Day phase ends in about 3 hours.
Wake up! We need to decide on a lynch.
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@Greyparrot
@Vader
@ILikePie5
@WaterPhoenix
@Crocodile
Shoot. Day phase ends in about 3 hours.
Wake up! We need to decide on a lynch.
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I wasn't very clear in the last post, what I am saying is that if whiteflame is scum, then the mafia team had a clear motive to lawyer him. Or if he was godfather it just worked out. Post 107 also shows self awareness to this, so I think it means we shouldn't dismiss whiteflame entirely from the POE, even though I am kind of town reading him behaviorally.
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@whiteflame
@ILikePie5
I think the proper thing to do at this point is to get the last two claims. Doc and cop are outted so there isn't really harm in it at this point, and if either of you are power roles, it forces mafia to leave another power role alive tonight. Your claims are essential for POE.
I was thinking about excusing whiteflame from claiming, but the more I think about it, the more likely he was to have known he would be copped last night based on post 107: https://www.debateart.com/forum/topics/5273-mcu-tools-mafia-dp2?page=5&post_number=107
He clearly pointed out that he knew he was the target of mikal's self lynch attempt. He probably thought it was likely he would be investigated after that, and there's a good chance warren copped him because of this.
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Dead
Drafter- Redwing- Watcher- Town
Danielle- Falcon Wings- Hider- Town
Elminster- Stormbreaker- Vanilla- Town
Full Claim
SupaDudz - Gjallerhorn - Innocent Child
GreyParrot - Ironman Suit MK 1 - BP
WaterPhoenix - Kimoyo Beads - Doctor (protected GP Np1)
Lunatic - Gungnir - Vanilla
Crocodile - Ronan's Hammer - Vanilla
Warren- Caps Shield- 2x cop (Copped whiteflame innocent np1)
Partial Claim
whiteflame - Infinity Gauntlet - ????
ILikePie5 - Nick Fury's Pager - ????
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@whiteflame
Yeah, that was me being dumb in the moment. Mixed up GP and Supa, thought he targeted the Innocent Child and not BP.
Yeah just saw you clarified that in post 33. Hmm disregard, that just makes you look townier.
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@whiteflame
Ah, alright. Wouldn’t have chosen GP myself, but I can understand the reasoning.
Can you explain this post? You said you understood the reasoning, did you also forget that GP was claimed bulletproof?
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Yeah let's wait for the others. Gonna read pie and GP's post more thoroughly to see if there are any behavioral tells while we wait.
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@whiteflame
I agree that any partner of his would have been upset with that choice, but given that Water comes on irregularly and likely posts quickly without checking in, I'd imagine that attempts to keep him in line are probably difficult to maintain. That being said, I do think Water is the least likely of these 3 to be scum.
One thing with water, is I definitely think he would have waited for his partner to tell him what to say before saying it. In stormlight when he was scum he was so unsure of himself that he would ask his partner what he should say at even the slightest mention of his name in the day phase.
GP/Pie would make the most sense if Pie hadn't been rallying us all to be sus of GP. I can't fathom why he'd do that when most of us were quiet on GP for all this time if he is his partner.
You have a good point here, and I don't want to dismiss it with the "bus theory". My only problem is the rest of the group is POE safe. Technically? For you to be scum, you'd have to be godfather or have been lawyered, which isn't impossible. For warren to be scum I'd have to believe there is no cop in this game and that mafia were given that as a fake claim. Which isn't impossible. For croc to be scum I'd have to think that speed gave mafia that as a fake claim with a justification anf everything since it matches my vanilla claim verbatim, which sounds like bastard modding, but technically not impossbile. And for supa to be scum speed would be straight up bastard modding, again not impossible.
All of these are kind of unlikely, but not impossible.
If GP or pie is scum there partner would have to be water I suppose, and we still come back to "who would let water claim to doc a bp"?
Does GP/water make any sense here? I don't really see it but not impossible.
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Another thing for GP: He knows he always claims his role dp1, and that people would expect that from him. He's usually an early target because of this since he often ends up a PR. BP is a good way for him to stick to that standard and explain why he isn't night killed.
I don't have much in the way of reading him scum behaviorally, since GP hasn't really said much. He has kind of been buddying me, maybe hoping I will lead a mislynch maybe? Idk. Again if he flips town I would feel like a real asshat.
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gun to my head, If I was told to make a end all be all guess on who scum is my current guess would be gp/pie.
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@whiteflame
I suppose I am fine with GP. I guess it's not an either/or situation with him and water, so the problem is if he flips town I guess water technically isn't confirmed.
One thing to your analysis: I really don't think pie would let water claim to have docced greyparrot. In fact, I am actually starting to town read water for that move despite wanting to lynch him for it earlier. Unless the scum team was water/croc or something, because i've seen that pair flop hard before. But with croc's claim I don't see that team anymore. I don't see any scum here letting greyparrot get away with claiming that night action when he was pressured for results.
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Lol I am actually really glad I didn't answer pies question about my role justification now. I was gonna but was too lazy at the time. If I had, I couldn't confirm croc right now and he would 100% be a mislynch.
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Also I appologize about my previous inactivity. Thursday I was feeling depressed, lethargic, and lazy just didn't feel like posting. I am back to normal, and promise to make a better effort this game.
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@Vader
@whiteflame
@warren42
@Crocodile
Out of grey, water, and pie, who are yall most willing to lynch at this point?
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The other thing tjat could completely fvck us is if mafoa got cop as a fake claim. Not willing to test that though so supa whiteflame and warren arr probably town.
Croc has to be town since our justifications are so close.
So yeah that leaves water, grey or pie for me. Im willing to lynch any of those.
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Unvote.
We could lynch greyparrot too. Im conflicted here.
Id also feel like a massive douche if hes town lol. One of the doctor or bulletproof isnt a bad idea though. The claims dont directly counter each other but that is a lot of protection.
Pie also hits the POE. I town read him dp1 because of I had a guess at what his role would be but the justifications so far has been so stretchy i think i should dismiss that logic at this point. Who else am i missing?
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Unvote
Croc is town confirmed because my justification is virtually identical.
Vtl waterphoenix
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Sorry I was with my girlfriend was in the hospital cuz she broke her wrist. Looks like were still waiting on croc anyway.
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@ILikePie5
How would you like to proceed? Thoughts on Water not liking justification of Warren?
idk.
Not in the mood to play tonight. Good luck.
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@Vader
I'm getting a slight scum read on Lunatic in this game. He says that he was mad at Mikal for "throwing," yet voted him off in the last minutes of the DP and led the mislynch. He has a polarizing force in this game, so it isn't hard for him to convince town to do so. There was no reason to rush a Mikal lynch besides the fact you were pissed at him. It seemed like he was distracting the DP. Lunatic was also trying to control town and polarize town into fake claiming, and now his turn on warren comes off bad to me. I think he's using the authority established by him to draw mislynches
Mike lied at the slightest moniscule of pressure and begged to be lynched... I offered myself up to be killed if he was a hunter, how can you scum read that lol
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@ILikePie5
U drunk?
I wish. I'm frustrated, mike basically threw the game after throwing a fit, and with dani and drafter dead anyone with pull is also dead. Then waters dumb@ss wasting doc... Town kind of fvcked right now.
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We should be lynching waterphoenix at this point. The doc kind of CC's the BP, the night action, plus drafter died conveniently the night after FOSing water. Water is probs scum.
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@ILikePie5
So you did pretty much what Whiteflame did?
Whiteflame actually sounds pretty in tune with the theme as a whole. Also I was only looking up people who were relevant under the microscope, didn't research drafter.
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@ILikePie5
Are you saying you don’t have the same knowledge?
No other than vague memories of some of the stuff in the movies. I researched a few of the characters last day phase.
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@warren42
That play is so bad that it makes me want to town confirm water. His mafia partner would not let him say that he doctored the BP. Jesus Christ.
The only person who should be letting water get away with this is his scum partner.
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@whiteflame
Out of curiosity, what do you find suspicious about that post? And what do you think of the decision to target Draft?
I have researched a few of the roles, but if mafia had someone like you on their team who was innately familiar with these objects, it would be a pretty big advantage. If you guessed that the redwing would be watcher, you would have had incentive to target drafter. I know you were self admitting to it, but I don't think it's beyond mafia to publicly share information like that if they think it would give them town cred.
That said I know it's a weak argument.
I'd like to see if there are results from croc or warren, then I suggest we probably mass claim. We should treat this as dp3, since we are down 3 townies already and haven't vtnl'ed.
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@WaterPhoenix
Fvck. Still suspicious of warren. Actually kind of suspicious of whiteflame now too based post 15. Also water.
Water who did you protect and why?
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Gonna read dp1 again and make a list of everyone who butted heads with drafter this phase.
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