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@Mharman
Fun fact: Casey wasn’t even trying to hard bus Greyparrot. It was a distancing play gone wrong and town just gave out free town cred for it.
Lmao for real? I did wonder if she could have accidentally bussed him by distancing at one point. That’s actually hilarious.
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@Mharman
We should just always assume that Austin is fake claiming from now on, and if he is behaviorally town assume he is fake claiming for the greater good of town lmao
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@WyIted
Towards the middle of dp3 I was beginning to seriously consider you as town. And by the end of DP4 I figured with all the empathy speeches you were giving me that you had to either be town, or scum and just a complete sociopath. Lol I was hoping it was the second and glad you ended up being town, because if that was manipulation it was working on me hard lmao
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@Vader
Sorry for going so hard on you in dp3. For the record I was town reading you by the end of that day phase but I wasn’t on when you got hammered to protest the lynch.
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Honestly I’m more happy about my town read on Austin being correct than getting either scum. THEY CALLED ME CRAZY! THEY CALLED ME A LUNATIC! But Austin was town GOD DAMMIT! Haha!
lol jk
GG all fun ass game
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@WyIted
Casey probably feels like she did enough to earn that so I feel bad for her but shit happens
She did really well. Bus should have won it for her and it probably would have with different people in the endgame.
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There was a legit point in this phase where I was confident it was wylted. Glad I stopped to mull that one over a bit longer.
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@WyIted
Usually I would but no not now not with the end game post so far away and with Casey mIA . We did it. We won a game we should have lost
Alright then yay! if you are messing with me your a d1ck. Lol well played.
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@WyIted
Fuck yeah. I was town. I had a feeling you would get this right and poor Casey kicked ass and still lost
You better not be trolling me or I won't forgive you
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@WyIted
Alright now don't make me wait for mharman or troll me. Were you town or mafia?
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Okay I am gonna vote. And after a lot of deliberation, I think I am going to vote for casey. Wylted, if you are scum you played me like a fiddle and it worked. But there were other factors outside of just raw manipulation that led to my decision..
1: Decisions made
From the beginning of the game I have to weigh which decisions scum might make, and ultimately casey being alive at LYLO doesn't make a whole lot of sense. Wylted was right that there would be a degree of luck required for everything to have worked out the way casey's case means it would have had to have. For instance, convienently clearing wylted with the Motion Detector. To have got results would have forced casey into a 1 v 1 situation, which would have placed unneccesary attention on her. If I was in her shoes, I would have done the same as scum as with a watcher people might think a ninja is extremely likely and ignore the results. Wylted was still in everyone's POE at this point, and she had to have known this wouldn't clear him. If she thought it did, he wouldn't have made it to LYLO.
Secondly the pie kill day phase 1 kind of implicates her. See, pie was the ONLY person who was scum reading casey. She also knew that that pie would have had a guaranteed action go through based on him hammering the lynch. That combined with the fact that I know casey has a tremendous respect for pies abilities as a player (I've heard her talk about this multiple times as scum, and when she was scum in one of my games I remember her wanting to prioritize killing pie as well). True wylted could have been behind the pie kill as well for similar reasons, but wylted as scum I think would have tried to spin pie as being scum based on him pressuring casey who was right about GP. I don't think casey wanted to risk that, and I think she may have also suspected pie was an investigative role. Lastly, looking at casey's POE piles the last few day phases kind of makes me sus of her. I feel like I should have been a pretty solid town read from her as I was the first person to take up the mantle with her on pushing GP. She seemed to have not even considered that until after I'd brought it up, as if she thought the GP was such a surefire event the entire time. Then each night kill slowly made it so that I had to be in the POE in every decision. As far as mislynches go, she was on every single same one wylted was, so even though I faulted him for those, I cannot say she is not 100% equally at fault for each one. She went from saying this in DP3 "Luna's role is a bit odd to me specifically because it's a 1x role, and that makes it unconfirmable if he guesses wrong, which he apparently did. I did have him in my PoE for a while, but on reexamination, I just can't see him as scum anymore. The way he was quick to join the GP wagon and his strong defense of Austin during the last DP come off as very towny to me, so much so that I just can't justify lynching him today. If he's scum, then damn, Luna. Very well-played. "
To this at the beginning of dp4: "To be honest, I don't think I can glean that much from DP1 anymore. All of us were early supporters of the GP lynch, so there's really nothing to learn from there. I had a strong feeling before that GP's partner probably bussed him, but now it's a certainty."
Nothing had changed between end of day phase 3 and 4 other than whiteflame dying which she had said was "obvious" except for now the stakes are higher and she has to get a mislynch her, so suddenly I go from being basically town locked, to "everyone's an option".
Lastly casey has no business being alive in LYLO, she was widely town read all game and had a role that was way to risky for mafia to leave alive. I don't see wylted leaving her alive like this.
2: Balance
I can't get this point out of my head and if I am wrong about it, I am sorry but you have to admit I have a point here. ALL OF MHARMANS RECENT GAMES HAVE A VANILLA. Some of them multiple, usually multiple actually. Literally all of his games in the past year, even his last one which was supposed to be crazy. He never mentioned anything anywere about this game being rolemadness. Casey I think realized this too and mentioned it in her opening posts this day phase, I think she also realizes how bad this looks for her, which is why she juxta positioned the argument that this had to have been a rolemad game. However if you really think about it, I don't think this game is really all that unbalanced if you consider wylted is actually a vanilla. My 1x bookie was so extremely unlikely to ever have use, I was basically a vanilla as well. Whiteflames role fit perfectly with GP's counter to it. Supas role fit perfectly with the watcher. An extra cop and motion detector on TOP of that seems a bit over powered in favor of the town, and it's extremely convenient she never got a useful result. If she is town, than that is just incredibly bad luck. Roleblocker and gravedigger were mis-lynchable roles which makes sense balance wise. Technically my role fits that way too based on its mechanics. Idk a town JOAT just feels like an outlier. Not to mention JOATS just usually feel like they are scum aligned.
3: Behavior
Both players had behavior issues to me. Wylted was just simply wrong multiple times, but rather than defend his decisions seems to genuinely understand his mistakes instead of double down about them or be defensive about them which is something I would expect scum to do. Wylted if scum, is playing rather well on my empathy, but I can't really blame him simply for being wrong, because I as town have been wrong on many occasions as well. So it really just looks good for him that he acknowledges that he has played this one differently than he has in other town games, and admits that it his fault. But realistically I also can't blame him for being on the wrong mislynches, since casey was on every single wrong mislynch as well. And wylted was SOOO confident about the austin lynch, he had to have known that level of confidence would have made him look extremely bad going forward, and it kind of did. Everyone had him as a scum read in dp3 as well as supa. Supa kind of giving up was really the only reason wylted lived. Wylted's behavior ultimately is NAI if it is all WIFOM, but I think he could have just as easily tried to convince casey to lynch me this day phase, and he had indicated that being his intention in the previous day phase. Casey came into this day phase seemingly willing to lynch whoever was most convenient, as there was really no way for her to buy whether a ninja existed outside of just guessing, which kind of left her in the ideal position to be the hammer as soon as wylted voted me, which I think she thought would happen. Ultimately though, casey's lack of "interest" in the game seems more like she is trying to stay in the background and let town tear each other apart, and hoping to ride the wave of the bus from day phase on greyparrot. Her reads and contributions to the game have been extremely un-enthusiastic, to result in the wrong decision every time. Wylted was also on the wrong decisions, but he seemed to have a passionate interest and assurance in almost everyone, where casey's interest seems feigned, as if she knew the outcomes all along. I get the genuine impression of townie surprise at the results of every lynch from wylted.
Wylted if you are scum you played me like a fiddle, and you are a better scum player than I give you credit for. Not that I didn't think you are capable of it, but you took the game to a much deeper personal level and kind of played on my empathy by admitting to faults, by pointing out genuine regret at being wrong on decisions to a level where you seem more human and attached compared to casey's almost robotic calmness throughout the game. As if she's saying "keep calm, and stay patient, you should win this". I just don't see the same townie like passion that I feel from wylted, who seems to just genuinely not know whats gonna happen.
If I am wrong, I am sorry. Whoever the scum is played VERY well. If I am wrong about wylted, well I blame you all anyway for not helping me lynch him when we had the chance on dp2 :P
JK. but for real though..
VTL casey.
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@WyIted
That argument is something I am keeping in mind btw.
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If it cause me to lose than sorry. I am already getting yelled at by my wife for looking at my phone too much when we are watching a show together.
No worries I can wait til you are available.
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@WyIted
@Casey_Risk
I wont stall out this day phase any longer. I'll make my decision soon. Just so we can be official about this, can the two of you write up a final "conclusion" post where you list all the points where you think should town read you, and I will take it into account when making my decision. It doesn't need to be an essay or anything, I get it is late. I just want to be thorough as best I can here, and even if I make the wrong decision here, can at least say I did it in good faith ya know
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Anyways, here's the point I was going to bring up about wylted earlier that he me like a brick in the face. I kind of backed off it because I didn't see much of it in his last game, but it was because he was silenced most of the game. But I distinctly remember wylted saying he likes to scum hunt by POE and work backwards as town, and I remember him doing this and following this logic alot. He likes to form a solid town block based on behavior, and try to go through and lynch remaining players not in his town bloc. I haven't noticed this at all from him in this game, in fact he seems to be playing the opposite. He never really had a town bloc the whole game and instead kept just about everyone in his scum pool and lynched pretty wildly. This is out of character I feel for town wylted.
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@WyIted
Yeah true, but either way if I am x shot roleblock and x shot ninja why do I get so lucky to prevent the sensor or detector from catching me and also prevent the redirection from Whiteflame to you?
assuming you had an x shot of each, you were really only lucky to use the ninja the same night she motion detected you, otherwise, casey is still the only one with a claimed ability, naturally if you still had a roleblock it would make sense to roleblock her last night.
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With that point in mind I have to remind myself that wylted as a vanilla, it REALLY doesn't look good that he was the hammer twice in a row instead of allowing someone like casey to do it since she had the only role that was visit based.
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@WyIted
Maybe it was a stupid reason to vote Casey here I just thought Austin having a roleblock and lunatic having a roleblock role was silly. Among other things
So either way two roleblocks being presented, but the OP of the game kind of also strongly hints that the mafia have role prevention abilities, otherwise why would town need immunity from them by being last on the lynch
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@Casey_Risk
I don't think Whiteflame was roleblocked, as I just explained. You can't roleblock a Commuter anyway, except with something like a Car Thief, which scum definitely didn't have access to on any night.
Yeah and thinking about it, he would have pointed this out way earlier, if he was roleblocked the night wylted was found clean on the md, which would have put wylted in his town pile.
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I agree, but there's literally no value to town for me to claim what I did with my role. I either used it or I didn't, I either have shots of my Commuter or I don't. If you think there's value for town to know those things, I'd like to know what that would be.
Damn it whiteflame, hindsight is twenty twenty, but really wishing we had this information right about now.
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@Casey_Risk
Pie was simply because he was a nullread for me and a player that I have a hard time reading in general. I used my MD on Wylted because using it on Vader would have been pointless, I had figured that you were a Bookie by that point (I figured you had to be either that or Informed based on your softclaim, and you basically told me you weren't Informed) so using it on you wouldn't have actually given me any information, using it on WF made no sense, and using it on Savant would have been equally pointless. Wylted, however, was a natural choice since he was scumread by multiple players, though I had a townread on him. If I got a Motion Detected result, then he was probably scum. On the other hand, if I got no motion detected, as I did, then it would help to put him in the clear. So it just kind of seemed like the natural night action choice for me.
So how do you think wylted would have used a ninja the same night whiteflame was roleblocked? How is this possible?
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@WyIted
I think you got it. 2 supposed role blocks one on whiteflame and apparently one on Casey while simultaneously me needing to be a ninja. So I would have to be 2x roleblock and 1x ninja and coincidentally used it when she motion censored me
Oh right because she motion detected you np2 the same night whiteflame was roleblocked, so somehow one scum would have had to have used two night actions, or she was lying.... god damn nice work there
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@WyIted
Well you have Austin who was technically a role blocker not a jailkeeper
Right. But we know whiteflame was blocked too after austin died.
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I feel like im missing something glaring here, and its gonna bite me in the ass if I dont figure it out.
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@WyIted
what did you mean about the two different roleblockers?
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wait whiteflame was also roleblocked? but on a different night phase. So if there is a roleblocker its an everynight one
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@Casey_Risk
Why did you motion detect wylted? and why cop pie? You've probably said before, but please indulge me
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@Casey_Risk
On the other hand, I don't think I've ever pushed anyone aggressively as scum before. So, there is precedent for me acting that way as town, but not as scum. Take that as you will.
No I agreed with that, if you are scum you are playing differently than you have before. I even acknowledged that to wylted.
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@Casey_Risk
I deflected from WF to Luna, thinking that if Luna was scum, then GG. Otherwise, I'd know exactly who to vote for, and Whiteflame would probably vote for Wylted as well. Whatever roleblocking abilities scum were given must have still been active, however, since it obviously didn't work.
Wait shouldn't this mean I should have died not whiteflame?
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That vote was really tough for me. I understand your position. She has also been buddying me all game which is super hard to resist due to my undiagnosed narcissism.
I have to assume that if you ARE scum here, you are taking advantage of my known suspicion of casey that I started on since DP3. Which is smart of you, but also a huge risk. I almost feel like it would have been easier for you to try and convince casey I was scum, she has been putting me in her POE for a while now.
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@WyIted
That is 100% proof you are town. I am really fucking shocked and happy now. If we lose this is on you nigha
NGl I totally thought you were gonna vote me this dp, and it was gonna be a 1 v 1 between me and you and then casey would sneak the ez victory. I will grant you that I am leaning toward casey being scum though but I really don't wanna fvck this one up.
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@WyIted
How did you and whiteflame decide the Pie NK last game? Do you recall the thought process and reasoning for that?
We eliminated pie purely for his role. When I play as scum I always target based on role. We thought he made it obvious he want actually a PGO because he fought earth so hard for pushing his phrasing which seemed to hint that he had a very powerful role and was hoping mafia wouldn’t call his bluff, so we decided not to risk that and killed him. We were inanely lucky because he actually was a PGO he just happened to be an even night PGO lmao
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@WyIted
I think the aggression early is out of the norm for Casey but she also backed away from the lynch to vote for me for activity because she stated the lynch was moving too fast.After DP1 she does seem to just kinda go with the flow.
I do think if Casey is scum here she’s been playing differently this go around. Casey basically gave up when supa died just two games ago, and here he’s playing the long con with an early bus if she’s scum. And she’s not posting nearly as much as I would expect her too. She was excited to have been scum in my game even though it didn’t work out for her, and she was much more active. She kind of has been dead activity wise since dp1. This doesn’t mean she can’t be scum but if she is she is trying new strategies and playing differently.
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Update is taking forever in the meantime I will write this: for you to think I am scum you would have to buy a lot of wifom and a lot of that would be me actively playing against my wincon. There was 0 reason for me not to support the Austin lynch as scum, and if your argument is that it bought me town cred, no it clearly didn’t, I’ve been in the POE the entire game. I didn’t participate in the supa lynch either when there was virtually no reason for me to and basically supa gave up arguing his case against me, because I was viewing his frustration as genuine town. It’s also why I wasn’t pushing you as hard dp3 despite having read you as scum much harder the previous day phase. I had plenty of reason to continue pushing you and I would have easily gotten away with being on either lynch and I could easily have justified it. You’d have to buy that I was actively playing against my wincon for no reason when any lynch I could have participated in would be within the realm of my POE and justifiable. Idk about your argument about my role not fitting in, I didn’t quite understand that one
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@WyIted
if you are town don’t vote me. We will lose. Waiting in my laptop to restart
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Before I continue this path I’m gonna reread a few Wylted games when I get to work, currently driving. Pretty sure this is significant though
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@WyIted
I have noticed something vastly different about your play style this game from your usual town play. Do you have any inkling as to what I am referring to?
It just hit me like a brick and I feel like an idiot for not noticing it sooner.
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As far as wylted goes.. Yikes. I mean on paper I have EVERY reason to scum read him, but I was even hesitant about it last day phase. His over confidence is something I expect from him as either affiliation, but honestly it's more the effort he's been putting into it that surprises me if he was scum. No offense, but wylted has been trying hard and if he was scum after having his buddy lynched early dp1, I feel like he'd just be demoralized and quit. He went so hard on on austin and seemed so confident in the lynch, when he was the second lynch on the table, he easily could have just gave up and quit as many might do. Honestly casey quit my game after vader was found out, so it's another reason I have a hard time thinking he would bus like that. But I guess I just have to ask myself if wylted efforts this game as hard as he is doing right now as scum?
I can see him doing it. Maybe he is just going balls to the walls as scum and doesn't care how it ends. He friviously voted and hammered twice in a row now, and it's also something I'd see him doing as town, but maybe as scum he just is giving it his best go and generally doesn't care if he is scum read. Idk, he has been posting way more than casey though and does seem to have some interest in the game. Idk other than that, everything he's done is still pretty scummy to me.
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@Casey_Risk
Casey, behaviorally I don't think I've noticed any major alarms from you. My usual scum tell of you was that you tended to fluff post a lot and prod activity from others to form your "opinions" on as scum. I never noticed that behavior from you this game, but there's a good chance since you've played many games since I've noticed that trend, it's one you've out grown.
Besides just being part of the wrong lynches (something wylted is equally guilty of), the only main behavioral tell I have from you is that you interest and activity seems to have dropped off considerably since dp1. As scum who is confident they have been read as town since the beginning of dp1, I can see why you'd have incentive to sit back and let town basically tear each other apart, as we seem to have done so far. Do you dis-agree with my take on your activity since dp1? You seem to have went from having that STELLAR read on GP to simply taking a back seat. I haven't been feeling the hard hitting analysis I got from you after that GP read.
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Of course whiteflame was killed.
Well despite wylted having a million reasons to be scum, I still want to consider a world where casey bussed and played the long con here. Wylted I know you said you would suspect me in the case that supa was town, but you should also give consideration to casey as well. No reason to rush things here.
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@Vader
It also comes down to who you are willing to trust more in the DP4. As I said to you last DP, I can say all these things about what I think but you have no inclination to believe me. This decision is yours but if I wasn't the lynch I would have to and would consider everyone in the last circle
Wylted is just as viable to be scum here the only thing hes got going for him is the motion detector result, but that assumes casey isn't lying (if he decided to instead frame wylted he would have made it a 1 v 1 between him and wylted rather than you and wylted, so theres incentive for him to clear wylted with it), as it technically doesn't clear wylted based on the likelihood of a ninja. The rest is WIFOM about how hard he would have gone on austin last day phase. You guys are both as likely to be scum in my eyes, but im leaning more towards wylted mainly because I just think thats such a bold play for you and GP to come out with your roles immediately like that, and I feel like you would be more careful and calculated as scum then to do that.
And if wylted is town, I am going to be a little more sus of casey in Lylo.
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@Vader
@whiteflame
@WyIted
Which of you in a lylo situation would be willing to actually consider casey as an option? Because if casey is alive tomorrow, and one of me or whiteflame dies, it's extremely likely casey is the last scum, and if we go in with the mindset that casey is still confirmed, and the final scum is between the other of whoever we lynch between wylted and vader this dp, there is a good chance we lose this game. I think we need to take people into lylo that are at least willing to consider all options, so if you aren't, maybe you are the best lynch today for that reason alone. I don't want to hand mafia an easy win over the fact that a long con gambit worked in their favor. As of right now, mafia would have incentive to kill either me or whiteflame heading into lylo, knowing the opposite of vader / wylted get lynched assuming the game doesn't end today. If casey is alive we need to be fully willing to reset reads and consider him as well.
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@whiteflame
I’m agree with the stuff about Casey and it being a wierd play for him to clear Wylted if scum. I’m also torn between Vader and Wylted. As much as I don’t want to buy into the wifom of both of them being willing to self sacrifice, I find myself going back to Supra’s role making sense as a balance mechanism with a motion detector and a watcher and finding it hard to buy that he would do an early claim play with GP. As for Wylted I’m with you that I think a ninja is extremely likely so him not moving doesn’t surprise me if he’s scum. And behaviorally the more I think about his Austin push the more I think he would have done it as town or scum. So I’m back to leaning towards Wylted. If Casey is scum I think it’s a GG.
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If Casey is scum then is screwed, because I don’t think anyone wants to face the reality of Casey bussing dp1 and playing the long con. But I will say Casey’s interest and activity seemed to have dropped off hard after his participation in GPs lynching.
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@WyIted
Austins pitch was to confirm a member of town. Which makes sense because his blocking only works on town members.If he could block than scum answer is literally to just defer the NK and deny information to town
He would have told us his roleblocked failed which is as good as a confirmation of scum once he flipped anyway since he’d die today anyway
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