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@AustinL0926
I also don't claim this as scum, I'm not that bad at fakeclaiming ffs.
I kind of also wanna buy this ngl lol
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I don’t feel like reading or responding to you right now so I’ll let you win the argument since apparently the entirety of the player base agrees my Austin take is sh1t.
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Just got up and 50 people are telling me my Austin read is sh1t. Idk fuck you guys. I have a lot of justification for it. But yeah I don’t think jailkeeper makes sense with doctor so whatever. I’ll vote Austin, but day phase just started so I can hold off on voting for now. I’m kind of not in the mood to post after having twenty people sh1t on my large post that I spent a lot of time thinking about so I’ll let you all just do your thing.
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@WyIted
Pies flip tells us how much to trust your analysis, so I am not buying this. I town read wylted off of the town slip.Honestly thought not a town slip, AI am not more likely to know what the duck is going on as scum as I am as town
Let the anger flow through you Anakin.
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Wait wait wait. Might have just ate my own words. 2x jailkeeper with a 2x doctor? Damn.
I buy your wifom Austin but that’s a harder pill to swallow.
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@whiteflame
You're going to need to explain this one to me better than this. I just don't get this take at all. Austin's reasoning for why GP was town last DP made incredibly little sense, and the notion that Austin is town just because he was adamant that GP was town does not make sense to me. This entire argument reads as WIFOM because, frankly, no choice made a huge amount of sense for Austin after he gave his reads and defended him. Like you said, abandoning ship would have drawn attention to him after an already baffling read on GP. There's more than valid reason for him to avoid that by just staying off of GPs lynch and proclaiming himself absolutely stumped that GP flipped scum. It's not "some big WIFOM reverse psychology" for someone to realize that their attempt to shake a lynch failed and try to play it off as a lack of awareness.I'm not entirely sure whose lynch I'll be pursuing yet this DP, but I do not agree that Austin is hard town.
No, I think I explained my reasoning pretty well the first go around. It seems more just like you disagree with my reasoning… which is fine I guess but considering I kind of scum read you, it’s also to be expected.
Largely the reason for my town read is based on WIFOM just as your reasoning for scum reading him is. I think from the get go of DP1 it was pretty clear the greyparrot was a likely lynch. There was a couple naysayers but from my perspective it seemed kind of obvious it was going that way all along. Maybe I am placing Austin on too high of a pedestal sure, I’ve done it before. But I genuinely think Austin is a good player and I think he would know to abandon ship, and he had plenty of opportunities to do so. He didn’t just not buy the GP scum read, he hard scum read me for pursuing it. And I never even blamed him for that because even though I thought GP was the best lynch and likely scum, I admit that even I was entirely unsure that he would flip scum. Austin’s reasons for thinking GP deserved a pass were valid, I just disagreed with the likelihood of GP being town over scum.
I came into this day phase with the theory that mafia bussed GP though, the kill on pie demonstrates the second mafia is a bit smarter than the average pineapple in my
Opinion. Anyone coming in here and acting like GP was obviously scum and everyone should have known that is just going to ping my radar even more. Unfortunately your take here kind of worsens my read on you.
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@WyIted
Oh just reread factional perk, nevermind I guess my core on savant is for excessive gayness
This bit of information was mentioned several times and talked about in multiple instances last day phase, to the point where I am not viewing this as a town slip, as was probably the intention.
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@Savant
Of course, maybe WF killed Pie because he thought Pie had a power role, but scum might suspect that anyway due to seeing WF's post or figuring it out however WF did. Or they might have just wanted to kill whoever hammered.
Yeah, I suspect pie was killed because of mafia knew he had a power role, and based on the lynch, he had an unstoppable role. Mafia realized that the person wanting to hammer would have to have a pretty important role that they didn't want their action interfered with. I guess they didn't see enough mislynch potential in pie to counter the risk of his role going through.
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@Casey_Risk
I didn't put casey in there I just realized.
I town read the ever living fvck out of casey though. Casey if you just raw bussed your partner relentlessly like that as scum, well played and bravo. But yeah you are lock town.
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Hey all! I re read the entirety of day phase one last night. Ironically I was coming into this day phase with pie as one of my top scum reads, so ironically he's dead, and I don't have to go through the embarrassment of being wrong on that one.
Gonna have to reevaluate some of my thoughts based on that. I was thinking it was pie mainly because he was going after casey hard, and I just wasn't seeing it. Casey felt townier than white on rice, and with the added benefit of hindsight and being correct on the GP lynch, I was even more suspicious that pie was on casey so hard last day phase. But I guess I was wrong on that count.
I wanted to post more in depth reads, but I am super tired and am falling asleep so I will give the jist of my thoughts atm:
Austin- Dude is like confirmed town in my eyes at this point. He was literally the only one that seemed to hard town read GP and his claim, and was actively FOS'ing me for being on the wagon. GP was a sinking ship though and it would be clear to anyone with common sense to abandon that ship. Him sticking by his GP read even when it was basically inevitable, shows genuine townie lack of knowledge, and he knew he would be scum read if he was wrong (he even acknowledges this towards the end of the day phase). Unless this is some big WIFOM reverse psychology play that most people probably wouldn't buy into but just conveniently works on me, austin is town here. I just can't see him doing that as scum.
Vader- After reconsidering my read on vader, I don't think he is scum necessarily for buddying GP initially. While going back through previous games to find ammo for this argument, I realized I harped a ton about vader buddying as scum in years mafia as well. So Vader if he was actually scum would be well aware that this is a tell he knows I know about, and would likely be hyper vigilant to not be buddying this time around. That and his claim really just doesn't make sense from him as mafia. I can buy a GP early claim gambit, but I am having a hard time believing mafia coordinated a plan before the game to both fake claim immediately and just hope to ride it out. That doesn't seem like a solid plan. That and I suspect his role will probably be counter proven by a town counter part later, and if for some reason it doesn't, he will obviously look extremely scummy. Vader as scum wouldn't make sense for him to claim a negative util role that applies only to tracker/watcher roles without knowing one existed. And if he just pulled that gambit based on having a ninja or something, I think it is a brilliant scum play, but at this point I am just not thinking that was the case. So Vader is leaning town for now.
Savant- Going strictly off behavior, I liked savant last day phase a lot. I was a little back and forth initially as the day phase ended, but the more I read his posts, the more I was thinking he was coming from a genuine town place. He DID scum read GP from the get go, but it felt like he did try to give GP his due dilligence and make sure that the wagon was being properly analyzed instead of YOLO voted, and if he was bussing there is no reason for him to play it cautionary like that, so I am more inclined to believe his scum read of GP was genuine.
My POE right now is Wylted and whiteflame. Like I said above, I do think mafia realized pretty quickly that GP was a sinking ship, and so wylted 's early vote doesn't dissuade me from considering him an option, and ultimately he just didn't bring a lot to the table to make me consider how he could be town. My instincts are telling me whiteflame was very town from a behavioral standpoint, I liked his well reasoned thoughts and analysis's, but whiteflame is a genius scum player and someone I don't want to underestimate, and I can't really pin point it exactly, but something just kind of felt "off" to me about him last day phase, and I can't really find the words to pin point what that is. But while on paper he does look good here, my instinct tells me he is something I shouldn't dis-regard. Out of the two, I would say I am leaning more of a scum read on wylted, but I think Wylted and Whiteflame is the direction I would like to pressure this phase.
We can start with a claim from wylted.
VTL wylted.
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NGL i did not notice the 1x part too and yes that makes it wayyy more scummy and less likely he gets it off after claiming it.
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Further argument to lynching GP:
Most the reason I don't just insta lynch a player like this is because GP usually has very confirmable, or believable roles. In absence of GP having one, he is almost just as good of a policy lynch because behavior wise, you just aren't going to get a ton from him. That said, when GP immediately claims a role that is commonly aligned with scum, you just have to assume he is likely scum. Further when you have someone basically counter claiming the role on the first page, it just doesn't look good for him. As I pointed out to savant, we simply don't gain any value from him now that he claimed this role, as he will either get roleblocked or night killed. I almost guarantee you if we don't lynch him we will be in the same spot with him tomorrow, nothing to confirm him. If he was a player that actively contributed more than one liners in his posts, I would consider letting him live for that, but I mean he just sheeps people he thinks are town or agrees with, and does the same thing as scum. Even if it is a mislynch, what real value or contribution are we losing from lynching GP? I don't see any reason to let him live in cases where he doesn't have a confirmable role, or a role that's just likely to exist for town, and in the last couple games he sort of did, but here he is an outlier. I think he is a good dp 1 lynch with only 24 hours left. Him and supa's combined claims gives us enough info to work on, and I simply just don't see the point in pushing more claims and info when we have a satisfactory lynch target.
VTL GP
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@Savant
Mharman said he couldn't answer. There's a good chance Pie confirmed beforehand that Mharman couldn't answer and asked the question to look townie. And the way it's phrased makes it seem like Pie expects Mharman will give the answer. I don't think a townie would expect that and they would probably phrase it asking if Mharman would be able to answer that question (i.e. "are you able to tell us if...") I mean, when has a mod not said they gave fake claims in the game description and then came out and revealed they did when someone asked them? It doesn't make sense, and I don't think a townie would ask the question.
Legit I am pretty sure pie asks this every game tho
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@AustinL0926
Luna's reasoning for pushing GP is fast and loose and much worse than I have ever seen from town!Luna.VTL Lunaticwill be around later
I haven’t even voted GP yet, so what push are you talking about? And I disagree that GP is a bad lynch but you never really argued any of the points for lynching GP you are just suggesting that being suspicious of him is anti town and not explaining why.
GP would claim his real role as town or scum, if he actually is a mafia role cop he would claim a rolecop. rolecop is a very uncommon town role. Casey’s role suggests that it is unlikely to exist adding even more reason to suspect it. What do you want? Behavioral analysis? It’s GP. GP plays to the absolute bare minimum, you’ve seen his responses to pie in regards to his role. You voting me doesn’t intimidate me away from finding greyparrot suspicious. If you can offer a better suggestion I’m all ears.
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@whiteflame
Meh fine, IG. Theres only certain people I really think have the potential to put theme analysis together usefully like that anyway, none are currently on my radar, so it's whatever. I will say that my mechanic does not apply only to shooters, I've seen it in MOBA's, Survival Games, RPG's, RTS's, and MMO's. It's not a mechanic that applies exclusively to guns or gunplay. And my role justification seemed like a stretch to me, I had to kind of get mharman to do a triple explanation for it to make sense to me.
That's all the hint I will give on my role for now.
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@whiteflame
So, I'd like everyone to categorize their character. If it fits into a similar mechanic or, if it is completely different, please provide the general category it fits under. I think it's worth at least starting to restrict claims this way and getting a feel for plausible theme splits.
You want to do that after you and me just figured out almost every character in the game in the last mafia game based on early hints in the same manor?
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@Savant
But if he's town, he either identifies a scum member or narrows down the identity of the ninja, or scum has to spend a kill or roleblock on him. But if he's town and we lynch him today, we just wasted a lynch and eliminated a potential power role. I'm just saying it's something to consider.
If hes killed or roleblocked we literally learn nothing, and we are already screwed because if he is a rolecop he is one of towns major power roles already. Keep in mind this is a 9 player game. There might be one more weak investigator alongside a town role cop if he isn't lying, but pretending like GP baiting a roleblock is a good thing, doesn't erase the fact that he ruined his role by claiming it. He would have to do play consistent with his meta, and usually its something he just bites the bullet on when hes scum. Hes been lynched early for it before. I don't think there is any benefit to letting him live, chances he gets his role off are pretty low in general, and if he DOES get roleblocked we are back to square one anyway tomorrow with nothing learned or accomplished.
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@ILikePie5
Nothing, that’s why I’m interested in Casey’s role because it’s supposedly unlikely they exist together
I disagree that he should claim it. I don't find casey scummy for simply voicing and voting an early scum read, which may be the difference. I have a tell from casey I am waiting to see from him, that I have noticed from him in CoC, Upick, and time traveler/rants that has been consistent with his scum play. So far I haven't seen it, but I have had pretty good instincts with caseys scum play in the past.
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@Savant
If scum kill him, then he's town. That's the scenario you described.
Which makes his role useless to us if claimed anyway, my point is he is probably scum, but in the offchance he is town, he wasted his role utility by claiming it dp1. If he doesn't get night killed, he gets roleblocked or something else.
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@Savant
Still avoids a mislynch.
Why are you so suddenly confident he is town?
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@ILikePie5
I need more before I can be convinced on GP
It's GP, I don't really know what more you can expect to get out of him.
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@Savant
Someone pointed out that if there's a gravedigger, there's probably a ninja. If there is, role cop could be used to find them.
Assuming mafia would even let him live.
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@whiteflame
While we agree on GP, I'm not really sure where the sus is coming from against Vader, and maybe that has more to do with just not seeing his full thought process on Vader since I haven't really seen the kind of buddying Luna is claiming he sees. The response to Austin comes off as authentic, but I can't say anything more than that. Just null to me.
The last game I played with supa as scum I remember he hard buddied me when I was under perssure, and at worst, he just doesn't pressure his scum buddy like Joebob in years mafia. There are other examples I'd have to dig up in order to really prove my point. That said, once he gets called out for it he probably will be hyper aware of it. So my sus will really only come into play if GP turns scum.
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@whiteflame
but there are just a lot of niggling doubts
reported
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@Vader
As for Grey, I don't understand why we are all so eager to jump to a lynch right now. The DP just started.
Literally only casey voted him.
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@Vader
Normally when I'm scum I tend to not blindly buddy, maybe in past games but recently not as much.
Now that I called it out you probably won't do it, but i'll still be highly suspicious if GP ends up scum.
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@AustinL0926
-Luna feels like he's just trying to get at low-hanging fruit, something that pings me by default.
Oddly enough, if you think that is a scum tell that is interesting considering the last two games I was scum in I didn't join any of the mislynch wagons. The only mislynch I was on last game was the quick hammer. And I actually used "not being on the wagon" as a wifom reason for me being town in the game prior where I was scum. So if you think I am pursuing low hanging fruit, you at least have to admit this isn't something I "do" as mafia. And with GP, I don't really see any reason to over analyze. He tends to do this as scum, and it has ended extremely bad and fast for him in the past when he does. I see this as another one of those situations. I think casey has sufficient reason for pushing GP, and its true role cop is rarely a town sided role. I was literally just a scum role cop.
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@Savant
I know I started the GP train, but I don't want to tunnel too much on one player for the entire day phase, especially this early. Town-on-town violence screwed us over in the last game. Every other player starts with 75% odds of being town from my perspective (and yours, if you are town). Even if GP is a bit scummy, his odds of being town could still be over 50%, and even if he's a good lynch by the end of the day phase, I'd still like to observe behavior a bit more.
You won't get much in terms of behavior with GP, but as to the rest, I haven't even voted him. If a better option arises thats fine, but I don't think we neccesarily need more claims if we are more or less fine with GP. Which I am.
If you are town, the odds of guessing a scum team in the first day phase are just over 7%. Even if they have some information to base the guess on, I'd be surprised if a town player could guess the scum team with over 10% accuracy day 1. I've rarely seen anyone pick out a scum team correctly when neither scum had been confirmed. So voting based on "buddy" behavior is basically shooting in the dark as far as I'm concerned.
Its sufficient reason to suspect him, and its mostly contingent on greyparrot being scum anyway. But its definitely a trend if you go back and look at past supa games. I think he's good as mafia in other regards but he does tend to blatantly scum buddy.
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@Vader
@ILikePie5
I dont think casey is being that quick to vote GP, I don't understand why his read is even that sussy when its well justified and its the only real push in the game so far.
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If GP is scum I'm guessing his partner is supa. I think supa blatantly buddies a lot with his team mates, something I've noticed of his scum games.
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Yeah im down with the GP train, if we have no one to lynch, I say he makes a good default lynch. If we think he's a good option, is it even worth fishing for more claims? I personally don't think so.
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@Vader
I don't inherently read Greyparrot as scummy for the role cop claim. It is a bit odd but I'll wait to see how it affects behavior
The logic is if he was a mafia rolecop he would still probably claim rolecop. I can see it.
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Checking in hi!
I agree purposely not voting to guarantee an action isn’t worth no lynching.
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@Vader
GG man you were the only one that really doubted my justice claim lol
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@ILikePie5
Anti-town behavior is in the eye of the beholder though tbh. It's like I was telling whiteflame. You remember khaosmage? He was considerex to play in a very anti-town way a lot back on DDO, but he always had wild theories and stuff. Eventually people learned thats just how he plays and played around it.
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@ILikePie5
So surprised you were a PGO lol. I was convinced you were some mega powerful town role.
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Luck point 1: Austin getting roleblocked when he investigated whiteflame
Luck point 2: Pie being an Even night PGO. We gambled hard on killing him thinking he was obviously lying about being a PGO. We thought he had some super powerful town role and was covering it up with the PGO claim, it seemed like something pie would do. We were hella surprised he was actually an even night PGO.
Luck point 3: Banana being third party. WTF?! I was planning on claiming justice from the get go, and hoping to get at least one mislynch, and hopefully being able to pull off an execute before town called my bs and lynched me. When banana claimed third party and every one was letting her off the hook at first I thought the plan was screwed, but since everyone thought I was town confirmed after that, it actually worked in my favor.
That said, the game wasn't entirely luck, we had pretty much solved everyone's character and role through theme research based on hints in dp1 and everyones soft claims. We correctly predicted wylteds role, had rolecopped austin, we guessed that savant was the jailkeeper ages before he claimed it, I had accurately picked his character claim and had vader's character narrowed down to two characters, and he was one of the two. We knew every town power role but vaders by page one of dp2. Whiteflame was very fun to play with and was totally okay with the big balls plays, which most mafia members would probably not want to attempt.
There was some funny qoutes this game.
"FYI I strongly lean towards Whiteflame having been framed. He's smart enough as scum to not use an executioner ability right after voting, that's just atrocious play when it'd be much easier to lurk until someone else was posting in thread and then message Casey or smth." - Austin
"I am definitely not ballsy enough to claim something like this as scum. "- Lunatic
I love wifom.
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@WyIted
I voted him because he was the last claimed investigative role and me and lunatic both had investigative roles. My bad
We were banking on this. Whiteflame figured out you were likely the dreamer based on your comment that it was your "Favorite role" in dp1 and it just made a ton of sense with scrooge, so since we had two questions about what roles might exist, whiteflame asked about dreamer and justice, we were told a dreamer existed in the game. Since I was planning on claiming justice early, we decided we would have to silence you to prevent you from getting dreamer results, and to prevent another investigative role from being outted which would put suspicion on my claim. We had also rolecopped austin np1 and figured out he was the even night lie detector, so we knew you would probably vote for him as soon as he claimed, which is why we silenced you again.
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@WyIted
Interesting. Do you know something or just suspect something? I know you can’t talk lol
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Nvm we couldn’t test Whiteflame ls role because you’d only get a kill if we’d already lynched him assuming your even town. No we have to decide a correct lynch today and tomorrow or we simply lose.
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@Vader
Usually third party count towards town numbers but we can ask Casey for clarification. Even if it does though your forgetting the mafia night kill.
If you kill Whiteflame and he’s scum you would have to hit mafia in the night for us to win the game, if you mis vig, plus mafia get a night kill it would be 1 v 2 but if banana were alive then she’d have incentive to hammer with mafia to get to np4, unless she was the night kill or your kill.
Anyways all this only works if your town if you are scum it just wins you the game if we lynch Whiteflame and he is town and it’s you/ Austin or you / banana.
Unless… maybe… Whiteflame redirects a kill if he’s town? If you vig him he technically should survive if town and he can redirect the kill towards Austin, since at that point it would have to be him since you’d be confirmed if not right? We would still be fucked though by banana because she would vote with scum or could be scum. My head hurts. Maybe there isn’t a game breaking solve here
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