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Heads up folks, today I'll be working on my final round against Undefeatable (plus a shitload of schoolwork), so if you see me online but not contributing that's why.
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Anyway... analysis coming tomorrow. I need to think over Speed's claim and the whole "redirected kill" thing.
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@whiteflame
If you wanted to turn this back around on me, you're a bit too late. Speed all but town confirmed me, so unless you think he and I are a scum team here, you have little room to argue that I'm somehow more suspect.
Not at all my intention. I am still deciding whether I think you or Speed are scum. I am merely pointing out that your own metric for evaluating my behavior works against you.
As for uncertainty being town behavior, considering that we were in a DP1 where no one could agree on a lynch target for the majority of the time, I don't think uncertainty in that phase in this game is indicative of much at all except an unwillingness to commit to any of the information you're providing. Nor do I think actively contributing evidence is necessarily town behavior. It can provide useful insights, sure, but it can also be used to direct others in a certain direction.
It's true that in the first day phase, behaviors of uncertainty don't mean as much. It's also true that contribution can be done by scum as well as townies. But that undermines your own core argument: that there is something behavioral about me that makes me worth suspecting above the others in this game. If it is the case that those behaviors are nebulous and therefore non-indicative of affiliation, from what comes your suspicion of me?
Aside from that, I think that those behaviors are generally exercised by townies more often than not, although you are right that they are not huge indications of affiliation. This is why it isn't so much the one behavior that matters, it's the overall pattern. My pattern of behavior has been very consistent with an uncertain DP1 townie, as has your own. If you sus me on that basis, you should also sus yourself.
All this being said, I don't read you as scum yet. Doesn't change my vote, though. Goal this phase should be to increase our pool of information. Are you willing to contribute to that pool or not?
Sure. I will give you my character. She is Chika from Kaguya-sama wa Kokurasetai.
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@whiteflame
Based on some slight behavioral suspicions I got in the last DP (he was very involved, but largely unwilling to commit to any votes), I'll VTL MisterChris til I get a full claim.
Uncertainty as to who is scum is town behavior.
Being reluctant to jump on wagons and hearing out both sides is town behavior.
Actively contributing evidence is town behavior.
What is NOT town behavior is jumping from wagon to wagon. I demonstrably didn't do that. I stayed largely neutral.
Note that I only voted once in the last DP. I let everyone give their arguments and present their evidence, and my opinion was molded over time as more arguments and more evidence became available to me. In the end I wasn't particularly convinced either way, and even if I had been, I didn't figure my vote would do much good with the massive vote spread we had. It was clear no wagon was winning over the others, so a no vote I remained.
Additionally note that if I were mafia, I would not have undercut my own agenda and shown the level of skepticism I did.
All this aside, if my uncertainty/unwillingness to commit to a wagon is indicative of scum affiliation I don't think you have room to speak.
POST #119 DP1 "-->@Speedrace
Not inclined to lynch either you or Mikal, but I don’t suspect he’s the Jester, either."
POST #229 "I'm going to push you to claim after all this fuckery.
VTL Speed"
VTL Speed"
POST #278 DP1 "I'm still torn on whether I see Speed as slight scum based on all this or null. At the moment, I'm leaning towards the latter. I think anyone would be frustrated by being forced to defend themselves from the kinds of claims Mikal was making, and even pushing the view that he was the Jester makes sense in that light. For now, I'll unvote until I have stronger reason to shift my perspective back."
POST #309 DP1 "I read Lunatic's post #270 and rethought my position. I found myself sort of buying into Mikal's narrative and having someone else provide an external perspective forced me to reevaluate mine."
POST #352 DP1 "I'm still tempted to push for at least a partial claim from him. How does everyone currently on the vote feel about just getting the character claim, or would people not be satisfied with anything short of a full claim?"
POST #393 DP1 "VTL Speed
As far as I'm concerned, if he'd rather be lynched than even partially claim, then I think it may just be best to lynch him."
POST #503 DP1 "Well, guess it doesn't matter much anymore, but VTNL because it looks like this DP is going nowhere."
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@Vader
This is quite the vote spread.
Drafter did unvote me btw
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@drafterman
The accusation was that Speed was in a discord mafia PM. There's no claiming your way out of that. If you're on that wagon, you're on it to lynch.
So looking at reactions/behavior is not a valid reason to lynch? OK, guess we can drop this wagon on me now.
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@drafterman
If you're not prepared to lynch someone, you shouldn't vote them.
I don't care about your opinion about whether you should vote for a claim or not. The point is that it wasn't my intention and you are ignoring that it wasn't.
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@drafterman
Oh, and you also ignore the fact that a vote =/= wanting to lynch. I wanted a claim.
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@drafterman
Chris - in just the very previous game Chris has demonstrated that he is fairly conservative with his votes, requiring a high level of certainty. I mean, he wouldn't lynch based on proven cop results but Discord fuckery is enough this time around?
Aight FIRST, the COP results were not "proven" to my knowledge at the time. You can point in retrospect and laugh at me, but it seemed to me that a mafia role cop was a possibility. I missed that with a miller we'd need a real COP, so that was on me, but you can't pretend I understood that when I didn't.
SECOND, note that with the COP lynch, it was a lynch. We weren't asking for a claim. We wanted to kill the target, and if we had gotten that wrong it would've ended the game. Hence my natural inclination to be conservative about throwing my vote around.
THIRD, note that I only voted for Speed once Mikal provided photographic evidence, and my vote came OFF of Speed when we tested it independently (btw, why the fuck would I bother testing it as SCUM?) and it was revealed to not be actual proof of anything BY ME. I was the one who stated that Mikal's evidence meant little and have REPEATEDLY stated that my sussing of Speed is moreso based on his BEHAVIOR.
FOURTH, I haven't voted for Speed again since Lunatic and Danielle started the argument about whether Speed's behavior is anti-town or not. And as I have repeatedly said, I am split between a Speed lynch and many other prospective options.
How is this "buying into the nonsense?" I have literally demonstrated skepticism repeatedly.
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@drafterman
nevermind, you just answered the latter question
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@drafterman
I agree on that.
What about Speed's reaction/behavior? The thing that seems to be pushing people towards his lynch is the fact he pulled the "i'm not claiming so lynch me" card for a while. He gave up his character eventually though.
Thoughts on lynching Croc for being hated?
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@drafterman
Ayyyy, interested about what you have to say about everything so far.
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@Danielle
Why aren't you voting for anyone?
Mostly to see how you responded to Lunatic. I am split on whether to vote you, Speed, Croc, finish off Corey or just go NL... Will need to think on it a bit
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Regarding Speed's behavior, I still have my suspicions but we may spend our energy better elsewhere. We've already blown pretty much all DP on this, and the more I see from Speed the less it feels like scum and the more it feels like being stubborn as fuck.
IDK, worst case scenario Lunatic and Speed are scum buddies and in that case we're all fucked because that is an OP mafia team.
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Speed gave a character claim at least... good enough for me at least for now.
I'd say Croc or VTNL. Can't say I buy a Danielle lynch from the reason Lunatic gave, but I will be watching to see how it develops. I would like her to explain why she has flipped her stance on this now.
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@Crocodile
the only reason i'm a waifu is cuz supa thinks aqua is hot.
I meeaaaaannn....
gettin toasty in here
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@Danielle
Why is it nonsensical to policy lynch a hated townie? Cuz it's a TOWNIE. You actually explained this yourself in post #367 so it sounds like you're feigning ignorance and asking questions just to look active (I do appreciate your activity though).
This jab is awfully unnecessary given that I introduced a counterarg to myself within the same minute of the post you cited...
As for the rest of this...
I read in a subsequent post from you that it's to allegedly make it so scum can't hammer easier at the end. I guess that makes sense but seems unlikely to be relevant unless the Hated makes it to the very last day phase. That is statistically unlikely. I'm personally against policy lynching in most scenarios outside of Popular claims. I'm not one of those people who says we should lynch DP1 no matter what just cuz it's in our favor either.
Statistically it may be unlikely in a vacuum, but the outside factor of him claiming DP1 and everyone buying it tells me he could easily make it to endgame. Scum wouldn't waste a shot on Croc (no offense to him), and if we decide against policy-lynch altogether then there is no remaining outlet for him to be eliminated. Please explain what makes you so sure he wouldn't make it?
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@Danielle
Policy lynching a hated townie is nonsensical,
What's so nonsensical about it?
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In retrospect, looking back at Lunatics point about Speed probably being a power role.... while true, to me the prospect of him being scum is high enough to where it's worth a shot despite it. If it's 60 town/40 mafia even, I'd take that shot.
I meant probably being a power role if town
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OK. I'm down for either Speed or Croc lynch at this point...
In retrospect, looking back at Lunatics point about Speed probably being a power role.... while true, to me the prospect of him being scum is high enough to where it's worth a shot despite it. If it's 60 town/40 mafia even, I'd take that shot.
And even if we don't lynch Speed, lynching Croc makes sense as a policy.
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@ILikePie5
Oh, or is it so that in late game mafia can't hammer as easy
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@ILikePie5
We have a claimed Hated Townie and y’all want to VTNL?
Why is being hated cause for lynching? Doesn't that just mean he takes one less vote?
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@Danielle
Not sure if I wanna vote for Speed, a noob or Croc so might as well vtl Pie.
Ah, the bulletproof fallback
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@Danielle
@Coreyinthehouse
need to hear from you folks... 13 pages for you to read through at your leisure.
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@That1User
pretty much yeah. there were too many factors to be certain as I explained in the screenshot, but I did see the dots he was talking about (albeit briefly)
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@That1User
it was less a confirmation of it existing, and more of a confirmation of it being plausible. https://www.debateart.com/forum/topics/5306/post-links/227414
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OK.
Speed's Jester thing was dumb, and his reactions/defense was pretty scummy as was refusing to claim. That said Lunatic makes a pretty good point about Speed as a player... I'll unvote for now, we need more evidence to lynch someone. We're already down 1 townie.
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aight. Even tho I get Speed's frustration with the Discord logic, I still think that's no real excuse to refuse to claim... it's anti-town. If he won't claim, he'll get lynched. It's on him if he's innocent, not us.
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@Speedrace
fair enough. I get the frustration (seriously I do, it's pretty snakey) but you have to admit, sometimes it just works.
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@Speedrace
No use, I am not claiming. If you're voting me it's to lynch me.
Why not?
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I can confirm tho, tested with Mikal and he is telling the truth that if you leave a group you can see the dots.
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@Speedrace
problem is you didn't make a group that we could subsequently leave, let's retest
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IDK this is weird. I don't see much motivation for either Speed or Mikal to be lying. Could lynch both and hope for the best or lynch neither and maybe give up on a pretty easy find.
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@Speedrace
I'm going to look this up. There has to be info on it.
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@Lunatic
wanna test the theory with me Luna? I wanna see if there is anything to it.
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Anyway, if Mikal isn't lying about this and Speed continues to deny, we could lynch Speed and if we get an innocent flip lynch Mikal. Not sure what his motivation would be for lying tho, except for maybe a reaction test. Either that or mafia
This doesn't make sense, I really need to proofread before posting.
I meant if Speed continues to deny and Mikal doesn't give in, we could lynch Speed. if Speed flips innocent we could lynch Mikal, as it would be pretty clear he was lying about the whole thing.
But admittedly I don't think he would lie about this as mafia, because as soon as it came out that he was dishonest, all of town would be on him. And on that note, Speed makes a valid point that as mafia he could just make up an excuse. That's true, but how does he explain this screenshot then?
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@Speedrace
@Elminster
Well, what were you doing? You're saying you didn't get on Discord and he's using random screenshots or something?
Sounds like bs but could be the case.
Sounds like bs but could be the case.
Admittedly, I wish we had more details in the photo. Mikal, can you send the screenshot with fuller context?
Anyway, if Mikal isn't lying about this and Speed continues to deny, we could lynch Speed and if we get an innocent flip lynch Mikal. Not sure what his motivation would be for lying tho, except for maybe a reaction test.
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@Elminster
hMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMmMMMMMm
Either you have some cool photoshop skills or Speed needs to fess up
VTL Speedrace
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@Vader
You better have included Tsunade. She is ultimate Waifu
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@Vader
he's trying to share a screenshot showing Speed's activity on Discord. Does that count?
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@seldiora
It's a good way to pressure someone to giving info, or just to fuck around for a joke. When I was new to mafia I read into it too, but people quickly let me know it was just normal.
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@Elminster
I have Speed on Discord PM's, he's right. He is set to offline. And for those who are online I definitely can't tell if they're typing anything.
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@Speedrace
Yeah I'm not really buying it. I'm not a tech genius or anything but that's a reach imo. It could be useful if we see a pattern, but you happening to be on doesn't say very much.
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