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@Lunatic
Also I'm the cop so maybe people have a good reason to believe me when I say someone is scum.
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@Lunatic
You should admit your situation. There would be more dignity in it.
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@Earth
@WyIted
@JoeBob
@Casey_Risk
@Moozer325
Today we lynch Luna.
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@Lunatic
@AustinL0926
@WyIted
Are you all ready to admit I'm a genius now? Lol
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@ILikePie5
Are there two players named Earth?? Lol
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@whiteflame
It's between Austin and splitting the vote three different ways. I've heard "Vote [x] instead of Austin" like four times and [x] is always a different person with like no explanation for lynching them.
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@whiteflame
Ugh, why didn't you hammer? We're going to end up with no lynch and probably a tie vote.
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@WyIted
Do you actually suspect Moozer more than Austin rn?
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@WyIted
There's not time to come up with another good lynch. If we don't lynch Austin, it is likely to end up with no lynch and we risk a tie.
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@whiteflame
Wylted has unvoted and will probably wait to hammer until the last minute. If you're going to vote Austin, probably better to do it now.
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@WyIted
It's rhetorical. I think it makes Austin suspicious.
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@AustinL0926
It's a fair question though. If you're town, why haven't our other top scum reads voted for you earlier?
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@Moozer325
Ironic that Austin and Luna are sussing Earth for being inactive, since doing that is part of what made them lynch me a few games ago.
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@Lunatic
Savant totally reminds me of myself
What about whiteflame? He's an experienced player.
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@WyIted
Austin's actions make the most sense if he knows there's no mafia strongman or role blocker.
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That said, a 1x framer would probably have a strongman too, so it's not clear why Austin would feel the need to claim if scum could just kill me tonight. Maybe a regular framer?
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@Moozer325
I don’t follow
Odd night cop isn't super powerful, so a miller role wouldn't affect the game much more than vanilla. 1x framer would make more sense as a foil to an odd night cop
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@AustinL0926
@Moozer325
I think he means you're more likely to be scum, but Earth will help us narrow down POE even if he's town. But POE is always shifting, so I think it's better to go for scum every time.
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@Lunatic
In the last game with an odd night cop, scum had a 1x framer. I think that's more likely here than a miller the more I think about it.
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@WyIted
Why would you even need a miller if the cop is only odd night
Excellent point!
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@JoeBob
@Moozer325
There's no way you guys can think I'm lying about my role and then believe Austin's miller claim. Mechanically it makes zero sense.
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@Lunatic
You are using wifom to scum read Austin
WIFOM can work if a third-party does it. People wifom reading themselves is unreliable though.
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@AustinL0926
You've been gaslighting me this whole DP dude
No one thinks I'm scum, so focusing on my behavior is just a waste of time. Maybe I'm a huge hypocrite and a bully, but pointing that out even if it's true doesn't help us win the game.
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@Earth
@Lunatic
@JoeBob
@Moozer325
We need a lynch today. If Austin flips scum, whoever joins the wagon is going to look more townie than the holdouts.
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@Lunatic
I mean, what if he was certain I was going to investigate him at night? What would be a better play for him as scum?
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@AustinL0926
@Moozer325
his only response to his wagon has been "I guess I am kinda scummy lol"
It's posts like this that make me think Austin is just trying to gaslight newer players. Why wouldn't you just quote Earth verbatim instead of taking him wildly out of context like this?
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@whiteflame
@WyIted
Earth seemed like a good target when everyone was town reading Austin. POE has been blown apart, and Austin admits he screwed up, so this wagon is going to be the only one I feel comfortable with. Also idk how I feel about Luna telling me "what he would do as scum" because that could just be a WIFOM gambit. It's only useful for other people to say what he would do as scum. For now, Austin is our best option.
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@WyIted
whiteflame and Luna are both experienced players who understand the meta. Them coming to directly opposite conclusions like this is setting off alarm bells.
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@Lunatic
@whiteflame
@AustinL0926
@WyIted
The way I see it, Austin is being scum read by whiteflame, who Luna and Austin agree is a town player. Austin is being town read by Luna, who may or may not be a town player. If Austin flips scum, we can go after Luna. If he flips town, Luna is probably town as well.
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@JoeBob
@Moozer325
Breadcrumbing is not the same as an actual claim. JoeBob, you will probably be lynched if Austin isn't. Plz VTL Austin so we don't have a another game with no lynch on the first day.
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@AustinL0926
why would I do any of this if I was scum
Why would you do it if you were miller? Probably because you expected to be copped.
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@AustinL0926
It was vague enough that you could ignore it later on if there was no cop.
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@AustinL0926
what's the difference between me claiming now and me claiming early on
Scum wouldn't know a miller claim would benefit them until they know there's a cop.
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@Earth
@JoeBob
@Moozer325
JoeBob, you have to vote for Austin because he's about to vote you. Regardless of whether Austin is town or scum, he's in a desperate position so he will claim he's confident of things he doesn't have a strong justification for. I don't blame him for that, but we are running out of time for a lynch and Austin is our safest option mechanically.
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@Moozer325
If we don't get a lynch, Casey dies. JoeBob's role is confirmable and can help town, Austin will always be under suspicion and cannot help town at all. If Austin thought he would be investigated and is scum, his only play was to claim miller. The odds of him being aligned as scum are simply higher than the odds of him being miller, scum is a whole alignment whereas miller is just a role and therefore less common.
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@Lunatic
@whiteflame
Are you down to lynch Austin? We are running out of time.
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@AustinL0926
I've been townread by the majority of people here
Not anymore. I scum read you but deferred to whiteflame and Luna. Wylted scum read you and now whiteflame has you at the top of his scum pile as well. There's also the possibility that someone town reading you could be another scum player.
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@WyIted
Don't split the wagon. JoeBob is confirmable, Austin isn't.
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@AustinL0926
Whiteflame defended you earlier and then he said you were at the top of his scum pile. I've been trying to get a response from Luna but to no avail. If you flip town, Wylted will be under consideration next day phase.
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@AustinL0926
It shifted because of how quickly we are running out of time and how little time we have to react to your claim because you waited until the end of the day phase. I'm a confirmed player and despite the chance I am wrong, this is the safest wagon to go with.
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@Earth
@JoeBob
We need more votes on Austin so we can hammer him before the end of the day phase. If we don't come to a consensus, odds are very high that a town player will die.
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@whiteflame
@luna
@AustinL0926
@WyIted
@Casey_Risk
VTL Austin
Sorry to be blunt like this, but we're running out of time and Luna hasn't shown up. Austin is close to a policy lynch at this point, and at least we avoid lynching a town role that can help us later.
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@AustinL0926
To simplify things, suppose that you are 100% sure I will investigate you at night. If you are scum, there is basically a 100% chance you would be claiming miller rn. Since the odds of any particular player being scum is higher than the odds of them being a miller, the odds of you being scum and claiming a miller in this scenario is higher than the odds of you being a miller.
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@AustinL0926
I don't really see a world in which you could plausibly argue that I would go for this specific claim and timing as scum instead of sitting tight and letting another lynch go through.
If you thought I was going to cop you, then this is your best play at the moment whether you are miller or scum. I believe you are telling the truth that you think I may cop you. But statistically, scum are more common than millers.
Another thing is that a miller claim is more advantageous for scum after they know there's a cop, whereas a miller might claim right away because they already know there's a cop. So claiming after my claim is a bit suspect. It's also odd you didn't breadcrumb anything about knowing a cop is probably in the game.
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@AustinL0926
You cannot be seriously suggesting that you as a townie would buy that.
If you thought I was going to cop you, then this is your best play at the moment whether you are miller or scum. However, the initial probability of you being scum is higher than the initial probability of you being a miller.
Odds shifted from 7/9 chance of you being town to 3/4 chance of you being scum if you are telling the truth about your game.
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