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@AustinL0926
whiteflame and Luna both disagreed with your earlier intuitions
I think the new claim could recontextualize what you said earlier. I'm still giving some weight to my earlier intuitions even if other good players disagreed with them. Scum players tend to give multiple tells, and different players will notice different ones. I was mostly town reading you because Luna said you were acting super townie, idk if he will still feel that way. And if I gave weight to whiteflame's defense of you earlier, then I also have to give weight to his wanting to lynch you now.
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@whiteflame
@WyIted
I want to hear from Luna before I proceed, but given my earlier intuitions and whiteflame's scum read, I think Austin will probably be the best lynch target today.
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@Lunatic
We need your thoughts on this Austin situation.
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@AustinL0926
Savant, were you likely going to cop me tonight?
I was thinking about it but decided against it because several other people had town read you.
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@Lunatic
@whiteflame
Guys, plz give some reads on the Austin situation before we decide who to hammer.
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@TheUnderdog
transgender white supremist
Those two things aren't really related, even if most white supremacists hate transgender people.
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@JoeBob
No, I want to see how people feel about Austin's miller claim. I unvoted, so there's no hammer yet. Plz unvote as well, just for now.
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@Lunatic
@whiteflame
How do you guys feel about Austin's late miller claim?
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@Lunatic
@whiteflame
@JoeBob
Actually no don't hammer yet. Unvote.
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@JoeBob
If you know you're town, waiting for us to maybe lynch you isn't helpful. Hammer Earth if you feel that's the best play, then we can deal with confirming you tonight.
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Next vote on Earth will be a hammer, but it's better than no lynch
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Moozer's recent posts strike me as townie, and so does JoeBob's claim.
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@whiteflame
@WyIted
@JoeBob
@Moozer325
Earth still seems the most scummy to me rn.
VTL Earth
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@TheUnderdog
What if I oppose government spending on bombs that kill children?
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@whiteflame
@AustinL0926
@WyIted
Moozer and Earth both seem like easy lynches, and Earth is back online. Is there really a reason to lynch Earth over Moozer? I know we have claims, but maybe we should push Moozer for a claim since we were pretty close to lynching him. Either way, I'd wait for Moozer to post a bit more before we decide.
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@AustinL0926
I have more time now and I may have been a bit too harsh earlier, so I'll explain how I'm calculating odds here.
If scum knew only 6 existing roles (JoeBob would know 8 as scum, but suppose he only knew 6), then this leaves 6 additional games, 3 of which are taken. The odds of asking about one game and it being in use is 1/2. If that game is in use, the odds of asking about a second game and it being in use is 2/5, since they are left with 5 games, 3 of which are not is use. So the odds that scum would fail to get a fakeclaim in those circumstances are (1/2)*(2/5) = 1/5. Conversely, the odds are 4/5 that scum would correctly identify a game they could use to fakeclaim.
The odds that the game with a town drunk is an available fakeclaim would be low, though, and very convenient for scum. So I don't think JoeBob's claim is fake.
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@AustinL0926
Because scum already know about two existing games. Your math is also wrong, but that's going to take too long to explain.
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But I agree the odds of the Town Drunk game being available are low and it's not something I think JoeBob would have planned ahead on.
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@AustinL0926
The chance of getting a "hit" is fairly low, especially since neither Joe or Earth were one of the last claimers
If JoeBob was scum, he would know abut 8 existing games after six other people revealed theirs. There's a 100% chance he would land on a fake game if he asked about two.
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@AustinL0926
So actually might be better to lynch Earth in that case.
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I guess if we leave JoeBob alive and he's the roleblocker, he can't roleblock me tonight.
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@AustinL0926
First, let's agree it's pretty unlikely for either of them to be fakeclaiming. Even if we assume it's possible, the risk-reward ratio doesn't make sense.
They can just ask about 2 games with zero risk though.
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@AustinL0926
JoeBob can just roleblock the most suspicious-seeming town member if he is scum.
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@Lunatic
@whiteflame
Actually town drunk seems like a good scum RB fake claim, and I'm less sure about JoeBob's role than I was before. If Earth was scum, I think he would pick something theoretically confirmable. Bit of a WIFOM, I know, but I'm leaning JoeBob.
VTL JoeBob
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@Lunatic
JoeBob is confirmable though. Earth is a better lynch dp1.
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@Lunatic
Maybe look back at the discord if you still have it
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Honestly, sounds like a strategy I would use. "If I was scum, I would never do x..." and then do x.
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@Lunatic
I distinctly remember earth as mafia in the discord last game saying “why do people claim fake claim commuter as scum”
Maybe he was planning ahead and hoped you would defend him.
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@whiteflame
Moozer was lying though, so the game wasn't actually used. And no reason Bookie couldn't have been recycled twice.
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That's four votes on Earth. No one else vote until he gets a chance to defend himself.
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@WyIted
Yeah, commuter claim is not great.
VTL Earth
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@WyIted
My other opinion is that Wylted is smarter than he looks.
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The bane of Luna's existence:
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@Earth
@Lunatic
Earth has posted a little, but I'd like him to engage more since I see him as a possible scum.
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@Lunatic
Moozer's behavior reminds me a lot of last game when he was anti town.
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@Lunatic
If that's the case, pushing for an Earth claim is the only other option I can think of.
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@Lunatic
@whiteflame
@AustinL0926
@WyIted
How is everyone else reading WyIted's behavior right now? As of this moment, he's defended the most scummy player and voted for the two most town read players at various points.
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@WyIted
Not defend him but maybe show some sort of reluctance.
Like you're doing right now?
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@WyIted
What could Moozer's scum buddy say to defend him? The better play would be to wait for him to come back and defend him based on what he says then.
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@WyIted
Reminds me of a joke.
"I hate lazy people."
"Why? We didn't do anything."
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@Greyparrot
Maybe Russia has ALL the bases covered here.
Wouldn't surprise me
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@WyIted
What do you think is an appropriate punishment for a married man who looks at other women? On a scale of public lashings to the electric chair.
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@FLRW
Well, anything that's a liability for the US is an asset for Russia. In that sense, Trump is also an asset to Democrats since he is not making Republicans more electable. Though that's to be expected from most politicians.
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@WyIted
My opinion is that my opinion is wrong. What do you think?
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