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I'll just say this straight up: I'm not an investigative role. So I can't just validate what ADOL did, at least not straight up. Nonetheless, I'd like to know what he did before I full claim because my role does affect night actions, though I won't say how just yet.
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@ILikePie5
I wouldn't withhold it if I didn't. I'll clear things up when I get at least a couple of night actions.
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@ADreamOfLiberty
You know what it is? I bet I turned into scum.
I didn't claim you had, nor have I ever argued for your lynch. Why are you being this defensive when I'm not accusing you of anything?
Let the validator make his claim, otherwise this is speculation.
Setting aside the fact that validation doesn't just take the form of "I know what you did" moments, I have absolutely no idea why you're being this intransigent. Part of the goal of town is to help solve the game, yet you're actively denying information that could be useful to town on the basis that you, personally, don't think it will be. Really helpful.
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@ADreamOfLiberty
Information that can't be confirmed is useless for establishing trust, perhaps it can be used by scum in determining who to target. I won't give away information without a good argument advantaging town. I shouldn't have said what I did first night either.
I really don't like that this is your response to a request for basic information about what you did. You didn't have any problem giving out that information after you claimed in DP1, but now you do, and your reasoning for the shift is that you don't think it's valuable to town (I'd say more information is usually valuable, particularly this far into a game) and that you could be lying (which is a bad reason not to give information that could potentially be validated by someone else).
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@ADreamOfLiberty
I'm fine revisiting your logic here afterward, but we need to start with what you did during the last NP. Also, your thoughts on the flips would be nice, since yet another protective role was revealed.
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Before I respond to your request, Luna... nah, it doesn't make sense to me, either. In fact, it makes so little sense to me that I'm questioning whether something else is going on, perhaps some kind of role swap. Regardless, there are two things we know:
If That2 was actually the Beloved Princess as they claimed, it did not activate on Execution. So that flip isn't just a Tailored role. That2 died as a different role, so either they lied about their role for some baffling reason, or their role was heavily manipulated.
That flip does clearly indicate the existence of yet another protective claim, and yeah, that automatically makes me sus ADOL and, to a lesser extent, Cerulean.
As for claiming, I'll limit myself (for now, I will full claim after we've heard some more night actions) to saying that I visited Banana.
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@Mharman
Ok. Tbh I said that more to see how you’d respond.
TBH, I figured. Didn’t expect to receive confirmation of a protective role being used on me.
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@Mharman
@Cerulean
Whiteflame, Cerulean says he used a protective ability on you last night. Anything happen on your end?
I was informed that I had received a fruit. That’s it.
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@That2User
Any particular reason you're excluding both me and Mharman from your analysis? I realize these aren't comprehensive reads, but you're down to two people you see as potential lynches, one of whom you're actively townreading (though you've made clear you want the information from his lynch). Seems like you're scumreading ADOL for having a weird protective role and I guess some potential of a CC with Cerulean's role, though it's unclear how you're perceiving Cerulean as well.
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@ADreamOfLiberty
ADOL, what I don't like about your argument is that it's divorced from the actual numbers involved, which necessarily would be impacted, especially if he flipped scum. Even I was wrong about what those probabilities would look like in that instance because I just assumed that scum would necessarily eliminate someone outside of the three he's claimed were in his dream, but if he's actually scum and gets lynched, then necessarily their target would be someone among those 3 (likely That2 if she's town, since scum stand to gain a lot from getting two NPs in a row). And that's a big problem because, yes, the numbers will go down, but our PoE wouldn't diminish at all. Scum could just eliminate a second target between you and Banana. Now town's down to 6 with 5 people implicated by their exclusion from the faked Dream. At that point, we'll have reduced PoE by exactly one since either you or Banana will be alive.
So, no, I don't get this point. If your point is that it would be beneficial for us if he flipped scum, then absolutely. That's a given. It would be beneficial if we lynched scum. But I haven't seen any argument from you or anyone else for why Luna seems scummy, only reasons why his flip would tell us something, and whether he's town or scum, I don't see how his flip substantially alters the likelihood that we hit scum next DP. Getting that information earlier doesn't shift those probabilities much at all.
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@Mharman
Lacking alternatives, I'll go with it.
VTL Mharman
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@ILikePie5
My only concern with voting That2 right now is that if she flips town, we’ll be at MYLO, and I can’t be lynched. Do any of yall have thoughts on that?
It's a risk. There's always the possibility of picking someone else and saving her lynch for MYLO/LYLO where her role stops mattering or for before then if we eliminate another member of the scum team, I just don't know that we have a good alternative. I'm less convinced on Mharman, but I could at least see a basis for pushing him.
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@ADreamOfLiberty
It doesn't happen much, but That2User's argument changed my mind. More specifically it spurred me to game out the days and look at the probabilities. Like whiteflame said 2/9 is the lower end of the probability for hitting scum, but if you were confirmed town your list would beat that probability.I think whiteflame implied that after a nightkill and a misslynch we would be at 5 town and therefore the odds would be 2/7 = 28% of rand hitting scum which isn't that much better than "33%" on your verified list.However he failed to take into account that at that point we may know much more than that there is scum on the list, we may know you are scum and that the list is less likely to be scum than random.
So... wait, the basis for lynching him is that, if he's scum, we might be able to intuit scum from his faked Dreamer result? Setting aside that any analysis of that kind is inherently WIFOM (since Luna could have included his scum partner in his results), it would still place the other scum as one of four remaining players. That's better odds than lynching entirely at random, particularly if we have a solid townread in that group, I just don't see it as a good basis for eliminating him.
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@iamanabanana
Only real updated thoughts are that whiteflame seems to be buddying lunatic pretty hard, I don't know how to think about that.
I'll note that it's extremely unusual for Luna and I to be on the same page like this, and not at all similar to our behavior when we were a scum team in previous games. Also, I wouldn't call what I've been doing "buddying." I've agreed with a good deal of his logic, and he in turn has agreed with some of mine. I've argued that, if we're going to lynch him, we need a good reason to do it based on PoE and not just based on the hope that revealing he actually is the Dreamer will have some meaningful effect on PoE. I've given the numbers to support that view.
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Seems like Mharman/WyIted is coming up in several peoples' reads as sus. I'm going to read back through some of Mharman's interactions this DP and see if I was too quick to townread WyIted over revealing Savant's character.
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@Mharman
Does anyone else have a reason to contest ADOL’s shield claim?
If anything, I’d say the existence of my role supports it (at least better than Savant’s role supports That2’s claim), but that’s very minor.
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@ADreamOfLiberty
So you have to agree that town can't just methodically go through the list and keep hoping that Lunatic was town right? Like imagine we lynch User or I am lynched, turns out the person was town.Are you just going to lynch someone else on the list or are you going to revisit Lunatic's trustworthiness? If it's the later wouldn't it be better to get it out of the way now when fewer night kills have occurred?
I’m not suggesting random lynches. I’m suggesting we go back to the basic task of reducing PoE based on the claims and information we have. I still don’t see how we benefit from just lynching Luna unless we have a good reason to scumread him or at least place him solidly in PoE. Getting “it out of the way now” doesn’t yield much of a benefit for town from where I’m sitting, even if it’s more beneficial to do it now than later.
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@That2User
if Luna is town, if Luna is scum then it is world changing, we do not know Luna's alignment until we eliminate him
You haven’t made a single argument for why you believe Luna is scum, so I don’t get your point here. Luna could be scum. He could be pulling a gambit, absolutely. Why should I believe that’s likely?
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@That2User
idk whiteflame it feels you have a personal investment in having luna stay alive why are you being resistant to my idea when it is logically sound, luna's elimination lets us know who mafia is
...Except it doesn't. See the above. If you want to call this being personally invested in his survival, be my guest, but if we're lynching today, I'd prefer to do it with the aim of reducing PoE and not the hope that we can use Luna's results to reduce PoE. If you have good reason to sus Luna - hell, if anyone does, be my guest and explain why you're sussing him - then that might be reason enough to eliminate him. In the absence of that, I don't see much value in his flip if we do nothing to reduce PoE along with it.
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@That2User
in what world does 100% knowing 1 player is wolf does not help town? the alternative is having faith in luna is the dreamer, hoping we're lucky in the 3 names.
I literally just laid out the scenario for you. Knowing that 1/3 players in his pool are scum would be helpful now when there are 9 players because it takes a small subset of them, sets it aside and gives us an opportunity to lynch in that pool to reduce it. We have a 33% chance of lynching scum instead of an 22% chance (which is what we'd get if we lynched randomly, assuming there are two scum in the game). Those numbers change when the total pool of players crunches to 7. Then, the odds of lynching scum at random then come up to 28%, not all that distant from the odds of lynching scum from the pool that Luna's role demarcates, and I think we can safely assume that, if Luna is town, scum will not eliminate one of the 3 people he dreamt about. So not only will we have not moved the needle statistically, but we'll have made random chance almost equally effective to just eliminating someone in Luna's dream pool by effectively doing nothing to reduce PoE.
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@That2User
I want to understand your thinking on how we use this information. We lynch him. He flips town. We know that one of the three of you (ADOL, Banana and you) are scum. We’re at at least 5-2. So now we know there is one scum among three players, and another scum among 4 players.
Explain to me how that meaningfully helps with PoE. It seems like you’re banking on him being scum because that’s the only outcome I can see that would provide any actionable benefit to town.
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@That2User
Luna's flip always gives us mafia, the info is greater in value than drawing a kill/rb.
…except if he draws the kill, we get the same info without the cost of a mislynch. If he draws the RB (assuming there even is one), that frees up another night action. And, perhaps most importantly, if we lynch him and he flips town, we have a second mislynch in a row with the only resulting info being that one of 3 remaining people are scum with, at best, a 5-2 split between scum and town going into DP3.
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@That2User
mafia is never killing luna, luna is never dreaming again, we need to kill luna to see if mafia is in me/adol/banana.vtl luna
So… explain this to me. Why do you think it’s better to eliminate Luna ourselves rather than forcing scum to address him? I get that this will give us information regardless, but if he’s town, this is a gift to scum who no longer have to target him during the NP to stop his role.
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I'm shorter on time today than normal since my coworker is out and I'm handling things alone in the lab. I'm catching up on the DP before I get caught up too much.
I buy Banana's claim. Yes, a town Executioner sounds very strange, but it's also the kind of thing I would expect for Ivan the Terrible whether the character is town or scum. Banana also did say that they could end the DP at any time last DP, so that tracks. I don't think it's likely that she would CC Earth on the whole "first tsar" thing even if that was present in her PM if she was scum. We would also have to believe that she just straight up claimed her scum role, which doesn't make sense to me. Executioner is a huge boon for scum since town is not told who delivered the execution. Why would she choose to give up that advantage?
I also buy ADOL's claim, mainly because it's not a straight up BG. One of these days we might get burned by this mentality, but I just don't buy that scum came up with this variation on the BG claim, and the lack of another protective role so far suggests it's real. Still, I would also like to know how/if he chose to use it during the first NP.
As for Luna's Dreamer claim, I'm good with buying it and his results for now. I agree with ADOL here, I don't think there's any value in protecting Luna since it functionally just turns him Vanilla in the hopes that we can shift the NK onto ADOL. I'd rather give scum the choice: waste a non-killing role on him to stop him from using his role, or kill him and reveal his dream to be accurate. Besides, I think we'd have better luck with ADOL's role if he doesn't say who he's targeting.
Finally, I don't get why Savant kept saying this his role suggested the existence of That2's in game. As far as I can tell, the Emissary has no connection whatsoever to the Beloved Princess. I'm guessing what he was getting at was that he didn't want DP2 to be skipped, since that could have meant losing out on his information, but I don't think his receiving information in DP2 suggested there was a mechanic that could skip a DP. That2 is my pick for the scummiest of these 3.
As I've said before, I'm fine with divulging my role if enough people want to know. I understand that the attention is on That2, Banana and ADOL based on Luna's result, but I'm not going to blend in with the crowd to dodge claiming.
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Anyway, it’s really late and I’m tired. I see Luna’s post about the Dreamer result, I’ll come back to that in the morning.
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@That2User
i see trotsky being mafia for leading the red army then being stalin's enemyproblem with whiteflame is he plays the same as either alignment in my expierence
My PM mentions my role as a socialist revolutionary, my exiles, my role in the October Revolution, my opposition to Stalin and my assassination.
Not sure how that yields “possible mafia” unless you have a very specific idea of what the theme split is. Are the only likely mafia all Stalin’s enemies or is it leading the red army?
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@That2User
I noticed you changing your mind on me, switching between me being mafia and town, concluding with me being your top scumread but not wanting to risk skipping d2. If I am scum like you believe I am it is worth pursuing me, feels like you're too scared of moving against me.
I’m going to just respond to this because the rest is valid.
I didn’t flip between seeing you as town and scum. When you claimed, I stated my concerns about your claim as you’d given it, then stated my read in that post. I then agreed with others that the risk of lynching you in DP1 given your role claim (which I did say made sense for your character) would result in a lost DP.
If your point is that I lacked confidence in my read on you, fair enough. I’m rarely so confident in a read, particularly in DP1, that I’ll just ignore the risk of that person potentially telling the truth with substantial consequences resulting. Source: literally every game I’ve ever been in. I mistrust my reads, even if I feel they’re based on good information.
Instead you went after Earth, saying he needs to scumcase you, to provide reasoning when you're in their poe. Earth is lhf, it's safe to vote, voting me and me being town gets you burned, I slightly feel you know I am town.
My stated aim was to get his claim, which he’d been withholding. He claimed after I went offline and was lynched while I was asleep. If your takeaway from that choice is that I must have believed you were town, see the above response.
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@Vader
Did this fruit do anything?Was it a specific fruit?
It simply said I received a fruit, nothing more.
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Anyway, it's late. I'll check in again before I call it a night.
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@That2User
vtl whiteflame
Is this vote just because of Vader's suggestion that players with Soviet characters should claim or is this coming from somewhere else?
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@Vader
Damn Savant being killed sucksWe also have 2 town players currently under the Russia history from what I know so I think some pressure on Soviets should potentially claim
Yeah, it's more than a little frustrating.
As for claiming, I'm willing to do it if that's how we want to go. I'll start by just claiming my character and we can go from there: I'm Leon Trotsky. If enough people want my full claim, I'll give it.
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@Vader
Did anything interesting happen last night?
Oh, I got fruit.
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Anyway, heading to bed, I can sort out where things are at with this tomorrow morning.
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@Earth
@ILikePie5
@Savant
@Pie I think you meant That2. I’m fine holding off on that lynch until we get more information.
Alright, seems like at least the three of us (Pie, Savant and I) see reason to pursue this. I’m good with that.
Earth, we’re looking for a claim at this point and holding back from giving one is just dragging things out.
VTL Earth
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So, we have a general idea of where everyone falls generally timewise, a full claim, and some info on a few other claims. What do we want to do with that information? I've made my reads clear, and while it's a substantial risk to lynch That2 given her claim, she's still my top scumread. Any other pick for me is going to be a null read at best. Does anyone have any ideas? The Earth push was derailed without getting information and there was some discussion about pushing Cerulean before he gave his reads, so it doesn't seem like we have any direction.
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@ILikePie5
I suspect as much. I don’t love that he’s calling others out for not having one when he clearly doesn’t have much to add. I’m fine with getting someone else’s claim if necessary, but I’ll want a good reason for his intransigence later.
In terms of Cerulean, I’m fine with considering him, though given that he just posted and said he’ll give some details of his reads, I’ll simply abstain for now.
Unvote
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@Earth
If it’s solely PoE, then I’d still like to know how you’re eliminating so many people.
As for a plan, at this point, the plan is to try to inform a lynch. Information will help that, and given that we know so little about your thought process, it’s one way we can decide where you fall in our reads.
Absent that, what’s your plan?
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@Mharman
@ADreamOfLiberty
So… wait, which of you is joining this game?
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@Earth
I suppose WF, Cerulean and Vader count via PoE.
You’re going to need to at least provide some basis for this PoE. Just ranking your reads as you have doesn’t tell me anything about your thought process, and if you’re going to refuse to claim (still think you should), you have to give us something more substantial.
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@Earth
@Savant
I'm good with that. At the very least, he's been one of the less active players in this game and we need to get more interaction with him.
VTL Earth
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@Savant
Points about that2's behavior are all fair. I'll say again that their role makes a lot of sense given what I now about mine, but it's possible scum have some information or fake claim mechanic that allowed them to claim this role (although I will say it seems unlikely, and I think it's too subtle for Casey to account for). It's a significant enough thing that I'm inclined to overlook behavioral weirdness, at least for now. I'm more inclined to go after Earth, if only because I don't have any reasons to town read him.
Given my null read on Earth, I'd be willing to at least consider it. I'm willing to set aside issues with That2's claim until I can get some clarification on how the role aligns with yours.
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If I'm right, we're at about 29 hours remaining, so it's about time we start making some decisions and about time for me to give my reads.
Savant - Town lean. This largely comes from his decision to soft his character in such a way that it could easily be guessed and his response to it being guessed, which all came off as genuine. Nothing since from him has really shifted that perspective one way or another. There's always the possibility that scum were given fake claims or that he was just trying to soft his actual character as scum, but it's more likely that this was just a flub on an attempt to soft his character as town.
Danilaykus - Absent. Null.
Banana - Town lean. Another instance of an early post that I just don't believe is being faked since she mentioned her character being "commonly aligned with the mafia". Not out of the question that a scum partner would push for her to soft this, but significantly less likely IMO. Not a big fan of how dismissive she is of That2's claim, mainly because she's not engaging with a lot of the reasoning for why that claim stands out as much as it does, but that comes off more as being defensive of someone who has been a target of a lot of criticism so far.
That2 - Slight scum. There's just a lot I really don't like about That2's behavior so far and I haven't seen any good reason for it yet, either from her or from her defenders. I've said it a few times, but I'll lay out the issues clearly. In response to a request for That2 to provide a timeframe for her character, she said her character was assassinated. Under pressure, she said it was during the October Revolution. That's all fine. After pointing out that the myth of Anastasia's survival is a pretty key part of her story, That2 admitted that that was knowledge she had of the character before posting the details, saying it was "implicit knowledge," suggesting that she withheld that information when pressed. She then clarified that Casey described it as an execution, not an assassination, saying that the description as an assassination was an attempt "to be vague." I don't care about the use of terms here, but I do care that That2 is retroactively justifying the choice in a way that does not make sense. There's a chance that this is just a hole of That2's making where she legitimately did all this as town, and given that the character suits the role claim, at minimum, I'm having some doubts. However, I will note that in the time it's taken to write this, I've seen That2 come on and not post despite requests for clarification of that role and a great deal of focus on her since her claim. Generally don't like the evasiveness.
Earth - Null. Not a lot to go off of so far, largely just taking positions on various issues that have come up and a stance on That2's claim. That last bit rubs me the wrong way because he wrote That2's response off as a lack of familiarity with Russian history when that has not been a basis for anyone's stance on her claim thusfar, but I can't say whether that position was due to a lack of reading into the DP or just a weak attempt to defend That2.
Vader - Slight town lean. I like the push for softclaims without providing too much information, and the role confirmation that he's promised at least gives me some more reason to believe he's town since he's saying it's mostly associated with a town role. It's not a given, hence this is slight. I also think the set of reads he's posted read well, particularly as so many people have turned up saying that they think That2 is town.
WyIted - Slight town lean. The back-and-forth with That2 seems genuine as does the uncertainty of his read on That2, but if anything is putting him in the town camp, it's that early reveal of Savant's character based on his hints. Maybe it's a faulty assumption, but I believe WyIted would have kept that information to himself if he was scum.
Lunatic - Slight town lean. Another case of the interaction with That2 giving me town vibes. His case was perhaps a little too specific to the wording at times, but the back-and-forth and probing based on That2's softclaim came off as a genuine attempt to get to the bottom of it. Pointing out the Beloved Princess doesn't match our usual use of the role and then posting that it still gets listed this way on mafiascum came off as a pretty genuine attempt to work through his thoughts. He's my weakest townread, but I still at least have something to go off of for him.
Cerulean - Null. I like how Cerulean is probing for information from That2 and in response to Pie, but there's not a lot to go off of so far that leads me to lean either way on him.
Pie - Null. The largely distant responses to That2's claim where he agrees with Luna about Casey being unlikely to mess up the PM and calling out the unusual nature (at least for this site) of the Beloved Princess only skipping the DP regardless of how it dies is all reasonable, though I'll note that the latter came up about an hour after Luna posted about the Beloved Princess working that way on other sites. It doesn't swing me either way, though, since that's a pretty normal way to think about it, so null it is.
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@Earth
So it looks like some movement happened when I was away. I believe That2's claim. With that in mind, I am wondering what tricks mafia can pull off, but thats a job for a protective role as Savant suggested. Other people did mention this, but That2 was a little unclear on the circumstances of Anastasia's death, but I attribute that to just That2 not being familiar with Russian history.
I'll point out that the issue isn't so much with That2's lack of knowledge about their character, but the fact that they chose to withhold information about their character. When I mentioned the myth of Anastasia's survival, That2 said that it was "so well known" that it didn't bear mentioning. That's not an issue with a lack of knowledge, that's just not being forthcoming about elements of her character that appear to be present in the PM That2 received.
I'm still lightly townreading her for other reasons, but I don't think we should write that off as a lack of familiarity.
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@Savant
I think I can say this much without revealing anything too significant...based on what Casey just confirmed about my role, I am pretty sure that2 is telling the truth. Just makes too much sense mechanically to be a coincidence.
I appreciate your sharing that, even vaguely. I won't speculate on your role.
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@Savant
I'm town reading that2 right now. Claim makes sense, and that2 acted way more suspicious when we were a scum team. Maybe a scum partner recommended that role claim, but I don't see that2 coming up with that fake claim under a ton of pressure.
I agree that it's likely That2 wouldn't have come up with this on their own. Leaning town myself partially on the weight of that, but only slightly.
However, presuming that2 is town, scum will probably target them tonight, so we might lose a day phase even if we don't lynch that2. I recommend we tell town protectives to be on that2 and hope for the best, but scum might have a workaround given that role claims are said to be punished.
I think it's a given that whoever has a protective role should make smart choices with it based on existing claims.
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@iamanabanana
I believe her because everyone is dog piling her right now, she is probably town. I think she fumbled over her words a bit and now people are taking advantage of that, but executed and assassination, potato potato. I don’t think we nailed scum on the first claim.
Not my issue with her claim, but fair enough.
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@Earth
@Savant
@iamanabanana
I'm not going to stay too focused on That2's claim for now. I've got very mixed feelings about the claim and it doesn't help that the Beloved Princess claim also necessarily gives us more pause when it comes to an elimination, even if it makes sense for the character.
However, I do want thoughts on this claim from those who have been quiet thusfar. I'll give Banana and Earth some leeway because they have been offline over the last 4+ hours (tagged you both anyway), but Savant hopped on really recently (about 10 minutes ago) and has so far avoided wading into this. I get that you're pretty widely townread due to the softclaim issue, but we still need to hear from you.
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