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@ILikePie5
Interesting that you pushed so hard on those specific roles (the Redirector and the Bus Driver, specifically). After sussing BK over his suggestion that the Janitor was in the game just before it was confirmed that there is, indeed, a Janitor.
That being said, I’ve learned my lesson from last game so I’m not going to tunnel based on what I was thinking during the last DP. Going to go back and read through the previous two to see what stands out.
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WTF WHY WOULD YOU HAMMER VADER holy crap y'all are dumbGP has to withdraw his probes as well, otherwise he dies, and if he gets roleblocked tonight y'all are screwedWHY WOULD YOU (gp included) NOT READ GP'S ROLE DESCRIPTION???
Valid point, though it's too late if true. Should've kept my vote on Pie just in case, but I didn't think about this.
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Anyway, I'm burning time at work doing this, so I need to get back to it. Hammer at your leisure.
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@ILikePie5
I'm not going to continue this back-and-forth on game mechanics. If you want to get into those, let's do it with Vader's flip.
My assumptions are grounded in balance and the fact that you were trying hard to save Supa
This is such horseshit dude. I've repeatedly said he is the only person I'm considering beyond you. I've repeatedly said he'd be my NK target during the next DP. That's not "saving" Vader. And let's be clear about this: I've given plenty of reason to sus you via PoE alone. I won't pretend that there aren't other avenues available for explaining what happened during the last NP, but the amount of hoops you have to jump through to get there is just absurd. If you want to argue that those things are plausible, argue after the flip.
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@ILikePie5
I don’t control GP. He sent out all 5 probes last night even after you said to hold one back. Either way, it’s concerning that you’re willing to lynch someone who could be town over someone who is CONFIRMED scum. It makes zero sense you’re trying to do this, and it’s concerning
I'd say the odds of you being town are going precipitously down with each post. I don't buy the extravagant conclusions you're drawing about how the NP must have played out. They require so many assumptions that it's gotten absurd.
Just look at this. Why is he protecting Supa, who is confirmed scum at this point and willing to lynch someone who is objectively less likely to be scum
Honestly, if it ends this absurd finger pointing and let's us move on, I'll just join the other objectively obvious wagon.
Unvote
VTL Vader
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@ILikePie5
Why is this not possible? You already know this guy claimed a character that literally got CCed.
I didn't say it's impossible. I'm saying it's exceedingly unlikely that one member of a scum team would both put themselves in the position to get CC'd and simultaneously tie themselves to their scum partner. Just because it's possible doesn't mean it's likely.
It’s WIFOM at best. But again, we don’t know the roles in the game that scum has.
Yes, we don't, but you seem quite sure that it's one of a very small subset of possible roles and that they used those roles in a very specific way, as opposed to the much more obvious conclusions that can be drawn based on existing claims.
It’s possible, but we also know scum were given a strong fake role claim. Claiming Cop with Damian makes zero sense. So what’s the other strong fake claim? Definitely not Commuter. Doctor is the only logical choice.
So because we know there was a suggestion of a fake role that could be claimed, it must be the Doc? I don't follow this logic.
That’s fine, you can think I’m wrong, but it logically makes sense from a balance perspective. Theoretically it should be possible for all 5 Kates to die in one night. If all town and all scum use their powers. Scum can use up to 3 targets probably. Logically it makes sense scum have some role that allows them to target 3 different players.
I don't know how you come to the conclusion that all 5 Kates should be able to die in one NP. That's just spitballing to the extreme, as is claiming that scum can target 3 people simultaneously.
There’s a town JOAT so Barney could still. Idk
Could still what?
I meant WF and BK. You know I meant that, and the fact you’re trying to create something out of nothing is odd
Fine, I'll assume you just made an error and we'll just focus on the absurd conclusions you're drawing.
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@ILikePie5
Like I get my reads have been atrocious this game, but for a second think about if I am town. You’re literally letting a known scum player live another night and even possibly ending the game. It’s 6-2 right now. If I’m lynched as a townie, Austin dies, GP dies cause his last probe is out, and mafia successfully kill, it’s 2-2 and they win.
So your argument is that GP is going to end up killing himself by sending out a Kate when he knows he only has one left? Really?
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I honestly don't care that much if we kill Vader vs. Pie. I'm certain both are scum at this point, so it's just a matter of preference. Right now, I prefer Pie. We risk nothing by waiting to lynch Supa in the next DP.
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@ILikePie5
So your responses boil down to "scum could have roles that do this." Fine. So, let's get this story straight:
Vader made a very bold claim that was quickly CC'd. We all agree he's scum. If I'm scum, then the assumption is that Vader targeted me (he'd have to, since no town members have fessed up to doing it) and then broadcast that he had done so. Strange as the choice was to claim a character who I think was breadcrumbed in DP1, you'd have to think that Vader made the even stranger choice of both targeting and then outing that he targeted his scum partner, and that's on top of him having some role that he would use on said scum partner.
As for how you've explained BK, I'll admit there's a greater probability of that, since there's some non-zero chance that BK executed the NK and Supa used some role that targeted both me and JoeBob, particularly if scum assumed I was an informational role and wanted to Redirect me to get an innocent result. That being said, I'd say the probability of a Redirector who landed on a pretty weak choice (Barney was a much better option than me and both Austin and I could see it, so I suspect scum could as well) is not nearly as likely as that BK just Doc'd his target.
Scum might have manipulative roles, but if they do, they chose to use one of them on the Vanilla player (and, by your logic, JoeBob), so I don't think it matters much. You have to assume a lot in order to come to the conclusion that it does matter, given what happened to the Kate on me and JoeBob.
As for whether Savant was the Cop, I don't think that's super relevant. It's possible he was. What I was looking for from a claim was anything that was affiliation-specific. Cop certainly falls into that category. Whether there's a Lawyer or Tailor in this game is more relevant if there was a Cop, but that doesn't explain everything that's happened.
Also...
Then we can talk about WF or JoeBob.
Wtf dude? Scumslip much? JoeBob, the Innocent Child, and not BK?
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Last thoughts before I hop off.
I don't mind if we decide to lynch Vader today. But Pie's arguments for PoE coming down to me or BK ignore something crucial: the Kates.
For me, I had a Kate visit me. That was confirmed by both me and GP. The Kate could only have died if someone visited me. No town member has claimed to visit me. That only leaves Vader. So you would have to assume that Vader knowingly targeted his own scum partner for this information to make any kind of sense. The only way that makes sense is if he's the Lawyer or Tailor, but that's a possibility, albeit a remote one given that we don't have a mixed investigator rather than a pure Cop.
For BK, it's a little more involved. One scum NK'd and Janitored Savant. The other scum visited me. We know this because a) Vader would have no reason to claim he visited me if he or his scum partner didn't, and b) the Kate on me died and no one on town could have done it. That's important because you would have to assume that scum had three separate targets - Savant, me and JoeBob - for all three Kates to have died. I don't know how you explain that. The only explanation that makes sense is that BK is telling the truth: he visited JoeBob, resulting in the death of that Kate. Vader or his scum partner visited me (presumably for a failed RB). The other scum visited Savant and NK'd/Janitored him. There may be some more convoluted explanation of how we got to these three Kate deaths, but this makes the most sense.
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@ILikePie5
Lol he investigated you innocent not me
Yep. Guess it's strange that I'm not going to bat for him then, eh? If people would rather lynch Vader, I'm good with that, but PoE's pretty blatant on this one.
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@Barney
Watched Best. I figured he might be scum and pretend to have doctored someone but got role blocked. If actually town, then a prime target for scum. Either way, visits would be informative.Only myself and GP visited him.
Alright, I understand that choice. That explains why the Kate that visited BK died.
We know why the Kate that visited Savant died.
I think we can assume that Vader did visit me during the NP, but now it's unclear why. Still, explains why that Kate died.
And I think we can assume that BK was not RB'd or that, if he was, he still visited his target (JoeBob). Maybe he was doing something else. Maybe someone else visited JoeBob for reasons undisclosed. Right now, I'd say it's safe to assume BK did it, and that he actually is the Doc based on this information.
So either we buy this and it's Pie/Vader, or we disbelieve it and it's Pie/You. Either way, I see only reasons to lynch Pie.
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@Barney
See above. Vader or I are scum.
Alright then, who did you investigate (also, called it).
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@Vader
I'm Damien Darkblood. I'm the Cop. Last night got an innocent on him. I know, this is deja vu from last game where I chose WF, but this time I'm down to 2 other people trying to lynch and since he claimed a character and was a top town read, I wanted to confirm him as town at this point to narrow the POE. If the results were monkeyed with, GG
Ooh, now that's fun. So, I had a strong inkling that Damien was in this game since he's the best character to take on the Cop mantle. I actually suspected it was Barney who had this role. In fact, he's one of five characters I thought his softclaim indicated. That leaves four. We'll have to see what he claims.
Now that I'm copped innocent, we have four basically confirmed town members. Almost enough to get a lynch by ourselves. A claimed, unCC'd Cop is also pretty close to town confirmed. That being said, I don't think we should take any new claims at face value at this point, given the Janitored character/role is now in play.
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@Barney
For a reason I can't fathom, I left you out of the plausible visits from the last NP. Did you visit anyone? Time to reveal info and claim.
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As for the info we have, I'd like to see if we got any results (the lack of anything from Vader in his first several posts suggests he has none), but absent that, we know this:
At least four people were visited during the night. The number of claimed roles that can visit others (aside from GP's) stands at precisely one: BK's Doc. Savant couldn't have visited anyone because he's dead. Vader has an unclaimed role, which could have been used to visit, though he notably has not said anything about it. At best, that leaves us with two town visiting roles. Scum used an NK and a Janitor on Savant. That means there is at least one (assuming Vader visited someone) role that was used, likely by the second scum that didn't perform the NK. I have a hard time believing that they targeted JoeBob (I wouldn't be surprised if BK claims he Doc'd JoeBob, and at this point, I'm somewhat inclined to believe that), so that means they either targeted me or BK. BK makes more sense given his role... but then wouldn't he have failed to visit JoeBob? Or would the RB just prevent the effect and allow the visit? Honestly not sure, but I can't explain who targeted me or why.
We know that Savant was taken out with the Janitor. We know that he had a confirmable role. We know that the main incentive scum would have to use the Janitor would be to obtain a character/role claim for themselves. It's possible (and this is very WIFOM thinking) that scum chose to do this in order to draw suspicion to the unclaimed players left in this game, but I'll come back to that after we have our last claims filled out.
We know that Austin is town. No surprise to me there, but hey, here we are. We effectively have 3 confirmed town players (JoeBob, GP and Austin) who can cast votes this DP. I'm not going to sheep them, but their views should count for quite a bit.
Finally, we know that GP is down to one Kate. Please, GP, don't use that during the next NP. We don't need another death during the NP.
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@ILikePie5
True but you’re still the odd one out. It’s possible Savant could have been Vanilla and Amber Bennett. I want to pursue Barney and then Supa next.
...Except Savant said this:
He could potentially have been Amber Bennett and have some other role that would confirm him. Vanilla can't have been that role.
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@ILikePie5
Well you’re our first vanilla so far.
Given the number of super powered characters on that list and the relative lack of normal humans, I wouldn't be surprised if I'm the only Vanilla.
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Alright, I'll start by claiming to just get this out of the way since, yes, I agree this is the day for claiming:
I am Amber Bennett. I am Vanilla because I am human and therefore lack super powers (hence my response to the "role associated with powers" question).
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I'm reading and responding to what I'm seeing without looking at subsequent posts. Let me fully catch up then I'll post something more informed.
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Shit, missed the post, my bad. So Savant was visited, we know that. Only Barney wasn't visited out of that bunch. Interesting.
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@Greyparrot
Alright, we need information. I can confirm I was probed last night.
GP, you said you sent out 5 Kates and 4 died. Who received them and whose came back?
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Damn that was a short NP. I’ll post thoughts/responses when I get a chance.
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@Vader
Savant is the only one I haven't had deep analysis on but fmpov he just moves into the FoS because of whiteflame to me being more town read IMO. I also think him being on a lot of the wagons is a bit suspicious. When I first played mafia and was mafia back on DDO, I used to hop on every wagon known to man to try and get a vote. But at the same time he's not at the top of the scum list because I think his analysis and taking some analysis from other games, like Town of Salem, etc, make me feel he's new trying to use his analysis he knew about other games into forum mafia
Savant is someone I'd consider heavily after he does whatever he claims he can do to confirm his affiliation.
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@Vader
I think the best bet is to lynch Austin and confirm his role. This to me would put Pie back in the POE for sure. Right now from a character perspective and what info we do have, I think mechanically it would be difficult to put Pie in my POE right now. I think DP2 depending on Austin's turn he's back in for behavior.I'm personally just at a roadblock between Pie. Maybe I am overthinking (which is likely), but the fact that off of a role hint alone with only 1 claimed character, he had the balls to claim Mark, I mean, damn. That's the only barrier from preventing me from going at Pie. It's just a big claim with no CC to it while being the first member (besides GP) to do so, makes it so hard for me to read him as scum. Not to mention I think Pie as scum tends to play it a bit more safe with claims.I do wonder, is there a Luna game where he was scum? I think looking back at that could be helpful
I see your point. I also have a hard time believing that Pie would be that ballsy with his claim. I have the same reservations about BK - it's not like Atom Eve is a particularly safe claim with several people left in the game who haven't character claimed.
Honestly, the more we keep going back and forth on this, the more resigned I feel to the Austin lynch. I still can't say I buy that he's scum, but PoE alone puts him in a bad position, and he might just be more helpful to us after he's confirmed town and we run through a NP.
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I'm going to wait for Barney and Vader to catch up and post their thoughts before I make my decision.
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@ILikePie5
Reasonable ig. Though I would like to point out that Doctor is just as unconfirmable as a Commuter, though I don’t think Korea is scum. His behavior reads to me exactly like Mharman’s game.
I'd say losing the Doc is a bigger loss than losing the Commuter. Maybe that's just me.
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@ILikePie5
I’m also unclear why I’m being scumread.
It's PoE, not scumreading. I don't scumread what you've done so far, I just recognize that there are limited choices. We have one confirmed player, two players who claim to be confirmable, and a claimed Doc. That leaves four, and of those four, Vader is the one I have the most solid townread on behaviorally (that seems like a widely-held opinion), and I have decided to set Barney aside for the DP due to a gutread of the situation. That leaves you and Austin. I have more trouble with seeing Austin's choices so far as scummy, but I think he's the safer bet.
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@AustinL0926
Yeah, idk really then. We both townread Joebob and GP, Savant is off the table, I'm not lynching Barney. That leaves Vader, but he hasn't done anything overtly scummy and I'm not going to lynch him without getting a claim.From my point of view, if I wanted to survive, I would try to get a no lynch. But since that's not going to help town, and only pushes the issue of me to tomorrow, I'm not going to go for that.With all that said, why do you scumread Barney?
I have an inkling as to why you don't want to lynch Barney, so let's just say I'm coming around to leaving him off the list, though the particulars of how he responded to being pressured had me concerned.
Right now, I'd say a lynch on you is the best choice we could feasibly manage (I don't think anyone will be convinced to NL) aside from possibly Pie. If we're going to lynch a claimed, unCC'd Doc, it won't be during DP1, so BK's off the table. Much as I believe Pie's claim is plausible, the Commuter role is going to, at best, be hard to confirm and have rather limited utility. Much as I'm not fond of targeting someone who has claimed the MC of the series, it's the best choice among the given full claims beyond yours.
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@ILikePie5
It's down to PoE for me and I think Barney's being a bit cagey about announcing his character. That being said, I took a look back at my list of plausible characters he could be based on his softclaim and I have some inkling as to why lynching him might be a problem. Given that, it's likely going to have to be either you or Austin at this stage, though I'm not convinced of either of you.
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@Greyparrot
@AustinL0926
Although Pie is my top lynch, I understand we're not going to get a consensus on him. As such, I'd prefer to lynch BK on behavioral grounds. Yes, he has a relatively good claim, but that could easily be a result of having a competent scumpartner.
I know that's where you want to go, but I don't think you're going to rally enough people to vote out a claimed Doc at this point. It's a huge risk based on nothing but behavior and a slightly off claim. I might be able to buy that if not for Luna's statement in the OP that some of the role/character mixes will be a little off for the purposes of balance. That's not to mention that we have less than 3 hours left. I don't think that we're going to flip enough people to make that happen.
Pie lynch > BK lynch > My lynch > Vader/whiteflame/Savant lynch > no lynch > Barney lynch > Joebob/GP lynch.If we're not getting Pie or BK, then I'm fine with getting lynched. If you really believe I'm town though, then you'll help me get one of those lynches.
I just don't think there's enough of a basis currently for pushing Pie. I also don't think that BK and Pie is a likely scum team at this point, so I think it's valid to look at other options. This setup makes you the next best choice, though I think it's pretty unlikely you're on a team with either of them. And if Barney's off the table and your lynch is preferable to anyone below you, then you're basically saying we can pursue lynches that aren't going to happen... or lynch you. Not the best choices IMO.
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@AustinL0926
I'm not letting Barney get lynched today.
Alright, then please respond to my earlier request. I don't think you're going to be able to rally people around the picks you already have, so who would you choose that could get the votes?
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@ILikePie5
He said himself he’s trying to change the way he plays. He’s conscious of his behavior and trying fully hard to still get rid of me for faulty reasons. Even if you look at his behavior, it’s not town Austin to pursue someone for faulty logic and evidence.
I agree that it doesn't match his previous behavior. I disagree that that indicates he is scum, particularly given how he's chosen to spend his time, though I've already covered why I think that when I gave my reads earlier. Like I said, I'm fine with doing this to narrow PoE and even better if he ends up flipping scum, I just don't buy it.
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@ILikePie5
I just can't square his behavior with him being scum. I'm willing to pull the trigger to narrow PoE if we have no better option, but that's where I stand.
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@AustinL0926
Again, I'm not that opposed to being lynched to narrow POE. In fact, if we get to less than 30 minutes left in the DP without a hammer, then I'll do it myself. I think I've helped provoke enough discussion that scum is going to be held to their statements in later DPs, to their detriment.That being said, I dislike the idea that I'm being lynched because me being lynched as a townie wouldn't be that bad. If someone is going to lynch me, I want them to look me in the eye and tell me that they see me as scum. Lynching me as a "not-so-bad" mislynch is a cop-out.
I agree with this. Right now, I wouldn't say I see you as scum, so I couldn't tell you that. I seem to be an outlier in that department.
That being said (and speaking as someone who scumreads BK), I don't think you're going to get a lynch on BK this DP. Lynching the claimed Doc is extremely unlikely to happen. I don't think you're going to get a lynch on Pie, either, much as I do agree with what's been said so far about how we should regard his being the MC. The way I see it is this: we have two claimed protective roles (a self-protective Commuter and a generally protective Doc), plus your Bleeder, which is pretty distinct. I would be shocked if Luna designed this game with only the Bleeder as a pseudo-protective role, so I have trouble believing BK and Pie are a scum team unless there's another protective role in the game we're unaware of currently. Maybe that's me getting too much into mod-psych, but my inclination is to believe that one of them is town, and at least for now, I'm thinking that's Pie.
So, unless you can paint me a convincing picture that these two are on a scum team together, it makes the most sense to pursue a lynch against someone else and come back to them in a future DP. Do you have an alternative pick?
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@ILikePie5
See here’s the thing. He pulled the same bullshit in Mharman’s game I think where me and GP were scum. He’s a troll. It’s hard to judge him for his behavior. But the way he’s playing aligns perfectly with the play in that game.
That's part of the reason I'm not fully trusting my read on him. That being said, the fact that he's a troll doesn't mean he's town in this game. He'll troll whether he's town or scum based on what I've seen.
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@AustinL0926
Speaking as someone who has not yet been convinced to lynch you, there is a benefit to your being lynched: you're a confirmed town vote in the next DP. I've got my issues with using that as a basis for our decision, since it's only a small gain compared to the potential loss, but I can see the point that some people on your wagon are making.
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Suffice it to say that, if we are picking someone to lynch this DP, I think we have to pick among those who cannot be confirmed by their night actions, which includes everyone who has not claimed (myself included). I say that while BK remains highest among my scumreads. I also say it knowing that most of those who fall into that category are people I’m behaviorally reading as town, so that does narrow the options for a lynch substantially.
Here’s the list of people I’m unwilling to lynch in this DP in order of most to least:
JoeBob: Innocent Child. Nuff said.
GP: has a claimed role that will rapidly confirm itself during the NP. If he doesn’t, that means he’s the obvious lynch next DP or he’s dead during the NP.
Savant: some may disagree about my putting him this far up, but despite the lack of a hard claim, he has said he’s clearly confirmable, so whatever his role is, it will either become clear next DP or he’ll be on the chopping block.
Pie: claimed the main character of the series and a role that can be watched. It’s not a slam dunk, but it is a testable role on some level. I’ve got a question into Luna about it, so this might change.
BK: claimed doctor and major character, though his behavior has been all over the place. The role is nonetheless somewhat confirmable.
That leaves 4 choices, including me. I’ll leave myself out for obvious reasons and list from least to most sus.
Vader: he’s been a black box when it comes to his claims, but his behavior comes off as very townie throughout. He’s my “if necessary” choice, but I’d prefer both of the options below to him.
Austin: the Bleeder claim makes basic sense, but could easily be a relatively safe fake claim. I know some people are sussing him based on how much he pushed back on claiming, but Barney and BK did the same and not all of them can be scum. His choices for lynches don’t make much sense to me, but I also don’t think scum would keep pushing on those lynches. Maybe this is just WIFOM thinking, but if scum wants a mislynch this DP, they’re going to pick easier targets that haven’t already been written off. Couple that with his decision to keep pushing the Pie wagon even directly after he claimed Mark Grayson and it just doesn’t scream “scum” to me. It also doesn’t help that, with BK as my scumread, I’m looking for a plausible pairing with him and I just don’t see it with Austin. They’ve been too antagonistic and it doesn’t come off as bussing. Same with Pie. I’d be willing to consider this choice, but my gut tells me it’s the wrong way to go.
Barney: I have his character down to a few plausible options based on his softclaim, but I end up feeling pretty null on him behaviorally. The nature of his softclaim gives him more room to shift than I’d like, and much as I agree that his frustration over the wagon felt natural, I could see him pushing back like that as scum.
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@AustinL0926
I find it very difficult to believe that GP isn’t town based on his claim, which is easily verifiable. If it isn’t verified during the NP, then he’s the obvious lynch, so I don’t know why he’d do that.
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@AustinL0926
@Savant
To be fair, so did I for a while. I also did question whether that was just part of what the AI generated rather than something that was in the actual description, though I guess he did verify that.
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@AustinL0926
Yeah, I didn't really think that one through, although I think that's how Bleeder is usually flavored anyway, based on my research. I had like 5 minutes before a class and I wanted to out my role so I didn't get quickhammered.
Alright, though it’s odd that you called it flavored in the first place in that case. I get that you had a different kind of Bleeder in a previous game, but I’m surprised you didn’t research it upon receiving your role.
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@Greyparrot
I don't care. After you killed me as TP it's clear you just don't like me.
…I’m sincerely so lost reading this.
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@Greyparrot
im probably just gonna send out all 5 to those who I dont think is scum
Good to know, though that wouldn’t prove you’re innocent without some kind of validation. Some of those dying might be enough to do the bare minimum since you could confirm visits, though you should mention who was visited as early in the next DP as possible.
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@Barney
The Immortal = President LincolnIt’s one of my favorite little details.
Yep, that was a fun revelation. Started squinting at my screen to see how he’d look in a stovepipe hat.
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@Savant
Variably. He was unusually taciturn and frustrated for a lot of the last game, but that was after being sussed. He sometimes takes things seriously, though usually that takes a DP or two. I can’t say I’ve seen him behave this specific way before, particularly buddying the most townie players, so it’s setting off alarm bells.
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@Barney
I strongly sus BK even with the doctor claim. But a NP or two will prove which side he’s really on.
I’m of the same mind. Even if I buy that it’s a viable claim, his behavior keeps me second guessing myself.
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@Savant
As for how Atom Eve’s role connects to her character… pretty poorly, but given what Luna said in the OP and the apparent need for a protective role, I’d say there’s a decent chance it’s real.
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@Savant
You mentioned this just as I was ready to post.
Part of the problem with all these roles (Doctor, Commuter, GP’s role) is that verifying them gets tricky. We need a Watcher (preferably) or a Tracker to monitor who they visit. We would not do much be determining what they did as where they go. In that sense, while these are “confirmable,” none can be fully confirmed. The Watcher is ideal because we know they can target whoever made the claim instead of guessing what they’re going to do, and in GP’s case, if he targets two people, the Watcher would get both results. That’s a good deal harder to fake.
All of this assumes we have informational roles that could be used for this purpose.
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