Microbiology Mafia DP1

Author: whiteflame
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Microbiology

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#361
WyIted
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@Casey_Risk
I am trying to give the benefit of the doubt here but mharman seems very obviously scum and it's just such a terrible play to attach themselves to each other. Savant would have to be very confident that he would die first to do this
#362
Savant
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@Casey_Risk
Anyone else getting the vibe that Savant and Mharman are a team?
WyIted literally just proposed that lol. But four things to keep in mind.

1) If you're right, the game is basically solved, and you don't need to lynch either of us today.
2) If you're wrong, killing either of us early severely weakens the town.
3) If any investigative roles exist, they can one of us tonight and significantly reduce the risk to town.
4) Because of (1) and (3), if we were a team, Mharman and I would be stupid to link ourselves early on this far from MYLO. It would be inviting people to consider us a potential pairing and giving them plenty of time to investigate or decide to lynch one of us. WIFOM doesn't work this far from MYLO with the possibility of investigative roles.
#363
WyIted
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@Savant
If you're right, the game is basically solved, and you don't need to lynch either of us today.
This is bad just because you always want to finish the game as efficiently impossible. You have to remember that if this is true and either me or Casey due than the rest of town will probably buy whatever bullshit you spew and this lose the game
#364
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@WyIted
You have to remember that if this is true and either me or Casey due than the rest of town will probably buy whatever bullshit you spew and this lose the game
So I should die because you might play badly?
#365
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@Savant
No because I am the only one who is not prone to being bullshitted out of the correct lynch though I did change my vote so in order to be consistent 

How would my play have any impact on what happens after I die? 

Unvote VTL savant
#366
Savant
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@WyIted
Also do you think whiteflame is going to make a microbiology game without a doctor? I mean, come on.
#367
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@WyIted
How would my play have any impact on what happens after I die?
"You" plural. Why should I die because other players might play badly?
#368
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@Savant
If you are town that makes the scum pool precisely pie, earth and mikal with the most likely scum being mikal. So not sure why your vote is incorrect right now
#369
Savant
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@WyIted
If you are town that makes the scum pool precisely pie, earth and mikal
You are in the scum pool. Mikal has barely been online, so his odds of being scum are rand.
#370
WyIted
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@Savant
Well we know lunatic and Casey are town, so if you are town than mhamrman is. We have info that banana is town based on the interactions between earth and pie they cannot be scum together so it would be mikal with one of them from your POV
#371
Savant
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@WyIted
We don't "know" that anyone besides Mharman is innocent. When you give 100% odds of something, it's true like less than half the time.
#372
Savant
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Anyway I don't think this catfighting is productive, so I'm just gonna finish up another round of reads and post them.
#373
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@Savant
We are talking about most likely. If I was mistaken about mharman and you then the scum pool is obviously earth, pie and mikal

Now you can sit there and pretend like you scum read me but you don't so fuck off. 
#374
ILikePie5
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Okay I’m here. I skimmed and my reaction is what a clusterfuck. Will respond to specifically to posts now 
#375
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unvote
#376
ILikePie5
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@Savant
I'm the enabler. When I die, the doctor role stops working.
Character and Justification please.
#377
Savant
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@ILikePie5
Character and Justification please.
I gave my character. I'm Salmonella. I modify host responses, and I facilitate the survival of only some microbes.
#378
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@WyIted
I am going to save you guys a lot of trouble right here. I don't think any pressure on me will be town driven so I am simply not going to claim DP1.  So if your vote is on me, it's not for pressure since I will not respond to pressure. it will be to lynch me and my role can be used to buy us an extra DP or 2 or 3 . So it's a valuable role. Not to mention I already caught one scum so I am useful beyond just my role
You basically soft claimed hard at this point. Scum can easily figure out your role (I already have). Just full claim
#379
Savant
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@ILikePie5
Scum can easily figure out your role (I already have). Just full claim
You could just tell us WyIted's role at this point.
Topic's author
#380
whiteflame
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Votes:

WyIted (2/5): Mharman, Savant
Savant (1/5): WyIted

For fans of The Last of Us, Cordyceps does kind of work like that. It zombifies insects, though it’s mainly known for its effect on ants, and its main goal is to get the insect to climb to a certain point on a given surface, kill the organism, and fruit to spread its spores. Infecting mammals, much less humans, isn’t a likely proposition but it’s still pretty gruesome.
#381
Savant
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@Lunatic
@ILikePie5
@Mharman
@WyIted
@Casey_Risk
Reads List 3.0
I’m assuming a 7v2 setup. Each player is assigned an estimated probability of being town based on how towny or scummy they are. The average probability of being town is 75%, since there are 6 town players left besides me and 2 scum players left.

Mharman
  • Town Lock (100%)
  • Playing as Town: JFdp1, JFdp2, JFdp3
  • Playing as Scum: CoDdp1, CoDdp2, CoDdp3
  • #4, #5 - TL - I think that scum would be under more pressure for their first post and keep it simple, not instantly make a reference to religious literature before voting someone without a good excuse.
  • #7 - TL - I don’t think scum would focus on looking into player activity like this, plus switching the vote very confidently.
  • #12 - Slight SL - I do think making a joke like this can be a way of “breaking the tension” as scum when posting a lot to avoid being scum read, but this is a very slight indicator.
  • #14 - Slight SL - I think it benefits scum here to put pressure on another player like this, especially since Mharman has already voted and arguably needs to justify it.
  • #45, #46, #50, #57 - SL - A bit surface level, could be faking genuine conversation. In this case jumping topics isn’t towny since it doesn’t show a lot of thought into scum hunting.
  • #51, #53 - TL - High effort here is towny, especially jumping from another subject, and I think Mharman’s reads were a bit less detailed as town.
  • #93, #94 - TL - I think the read on me is fair if Mharman thought I didn’t have any reads written yet (and I did promise them before going back and realizing my pg 3 reads were inaccurate last game).
  • #104, #106 - TL - Explanations for these actions seem genuine
  • #129 - Slight SL - Passing the buck to try to get other people to accuse someone is sometimes a scum move, but then this could also be genuine town. I think this is only slightly more likely to come from scum.
  • #208 - SL - I tend to see reaction tests come from scum as a lazy way to seem like they are scum hunting.
  • #210 - SL - I think town Mharman would put in more effort than just town reading someone for not scum reading him.
  • #220, #221, #225, #226 - SL - Very surface-level analysis that doesn’t reference much to justify it.
  • #256 - SL - More reads that seem more opportunistic and vague than useful.
  • #325 - TOWN LOCK - Only doc claim, and my role confirms the existence of a doctor.
Lunatic
  • Scum Lean (72.8%)
  • Playing as Town: Castledp1, JFdp1, JFdp2
  • Playing as Scum: Chessdp1, Chessdp2, Chessdp3
  • #38, #47, #49 - TL - This comment indicated that Luna paid a good deal of attention to the posts he responded to, which I think is generally pro-town. Scum can joke around too, but they might be more likely to skim, especially if Wyled’s comment doesn’t look particularly opportunistic. Plus jumping around topics indicates a more natural and genuine train of thought.
  • #40 - TL - Saying this almost as an afterthought indicates it’s probably not a strategic move.
  • #151 - Slight SL - Could be opportunistic to defend a player for town cred without actually defending them, I’d expect more scum or town reading from Luna as town.
  • #212, #214, #215, #216, #218 - TL - This detailed level of analysis is towny since none of it seems opportunistic.
  • #232, #236 - TL - These town reads don’t seem opportunistic.
iamanabanana
  • Scum Lean (72.0%)
  • Playing as Town: Governorsdp1, Governorsdp2, Governorsdp3
  • Playing as Scum: GSdp1, GSdp2, GSdp3
  • #113 - TL - I like that this post seems to have more thought put into it than banana’s first post last game, and I think scum would be less inclined to town read other players.
  • #287 - TL - I think RM would be more worried about the risk for giving a full claim if his role was town.
Casey_Risk
  • Scum Lean (71.8%)
  • Playing as Town: SKdp1, SKdp2, SKdp3
  • Playing as Scum: Gunplaydp1, Gunplaydp2, Gunplaydp3
  • #34 - SL - I think a town member would be slightly more likely to avoid trusting AI, but a scum member might want to give themselves plausible deniability for getting it wrong, or just not be super concerned with accuracy since they can decide on a claim later. Or scum might not even use AI but say they did hoping it sounds genuine.
  • #71, #79 - Slight TL - Given that Casey mentioned the signups page and nothing about WF’s first post, I think this indicates they haven’t paid too much attention to which roles are available for fake claims.
  • #141 - TL - Reads seem detailed and genuine, if this is scum there’s a lot of effort being put in to seem towny, more than I’d expect.
  • #209 - TL - A good amount of effort is put into analyzing WyIted, I don’t think scum would devote this much time to such a task.
  • #260 - TL - Defending me and WyIted doesn’t seem opportunistic, and it would be easy for Casey to try to plant seeds of suspicion.
  • #359 - SL - A bit opportunistic, plus a weird assumption with no detailed analysis to go with it.
Mikal
ILikePie5
  • Scum Lean (71.4%)
  • Playing as Town: JFdp1, JFdp2, TRdp1
  • Playing as Scum: TVdp1, TVdp2
  • #60 - TL - This attempt at identifying a theme split seems genuine enough and not really aimed at getting town cred. Indicates a good deal of effort into thinking through possible mechanics.
  • #117 - Slight TL - Not a huge risk, but generally in line with what I think helps the town rn.
  • #133, #140 - SL - Random accusation and low-effort reaction test, plus early town block with little justification or apparent effort behind them. Could be lazily faking his meta.
  • #147 - Slight SL - While I kind of see where Pie’s coming from, this is a big leap to make from one post. Looking through old games, Pie tends to jump onto lynches opportunistically and make demands of players more rashly as scum.
  • #243, #244, #245, #249 - TL - Pie is more thoughtful than usual and less aggressive than he could be, which I think is a town tell.
  • #254, #255 - TL - I like that Pie is moving things forward in a pro-town way, and this doesn’t particularly benefit him if he’s scum.
  • #378 - TL - I think this is townie for Pie to admit and a pro-town concern.
Wylted
  • Scum Lean (70.3%)
  • Playing as Town: JFdp1, JFdp2, CoDdp1
  • Playing as Scum: Castledp1, GSdp1
  • #24, #30 - TL - Wylted draws attention to himself here, which would be a risk as scum, and these thoughts read genuine overall. There’s also a bit of nuance jumping from one subject to another, which I think scum would tend to avoid.
  • #31, #33 - TL - Changing his mind without being asked also seems genuine here. It could be a scum play but doesn’t seem as likely.
  • #43 - Slight TL - Insulting a player like this is a pretty big risk for scum to take.
  • #63 - Slight TL - I think not reading the original post is a town tell.
  • #142, #143 - SL - Opportunistic accusations with no details explaining them, could be a low-effort scum play.
  • #145 - TL - Different but in a towny way, I like this amount of nuance and it makes the comment seem more genuine.
  • #148, #150 - TL - These explanations don’t seem forced.
  • #164 - SL - A bit opportunistic to start on this when he’s just been accused by Pie. Feels a bit like an intentional distraction.
  • #195 - TL - I don’t see WyIted putting this much effort into a read if he doesn’t actually believe it.
  • #195 - Slight SL - WyIted was in this game and knew it was the last one Mharman played as town, he should have spotted Mharman saying “here” first thing that game.
  • #230, #231 - TL - A good deal of effort than isn’t surface-level.
  • #238, #239, #240 - TL - If WyIted were just scum here, I don’t see him caring enough to explain his actions to this extent.
  • #328, #335 - SL - I don’t think town WyIted would be crazy enough to bet everything on Mharman and I being a team and making a bold play like this so early in the game.
  • #360 - SL - Switching accusations like this a bit opportunistically after Mharman had a solid claim very confidently with little basis.
Earth
  • Scum Lean (70.2%)
  • Playing as Town: CoDdp1, CoDdp2, CoDdp3
  • Playing as Scum: RRV2dp1, RRV2dp2, RRV2dp3
  • #23 - TL - Being slightly hostile like this right out the gate comes off as genuine, since it has little strategic advantage.
  • #58 - TL - I agree with this, and there’s not a super strategic reason for Earth to defend Pie here as scum, especially since he could just post less which is his meta.
  • #70 - SL - Post indicates that Earth has paid close attention to what can be in the game. I think that’s slightly more likely from scum, especially since Earth doesn’t tend to be a super active player.
  • #137 - Slight SL - Earth isn’t actually giving anything up here, and I don’t see another response he could give that didn’t raise obvious suspicion. The fact that he qualifies it with “moving the game along” might be an opportunistic attempt to gain town cred.
#382
Casey_Risk
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@Savant
1) If you're right, the game is basically solved, and you don't need to lynch either of us today.
Okay, this is a HORRIBLE defense, and it reminds me of Austin's defense of Savant in BotW Mafia. Also, the idea that WIFOM doesn't work this far out from MYLO... What? 

I'm actually pretty comfortable doing this. 

VTL Savant 
#383
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@Savant
I'm assuming your scum lean on everyone except Mharman is a mistake.
#384
Savant
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@Casey_Risk
Austin's defense of Savant in BotW Mafia
That was when one scum had definitely been caught, not when someone thought two people essential to the town might be paired.
#385
Mharman
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@Savant
How does Salmonella enable?
#386
Savant
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@Casey_Risk
I'm assuming your scum lean on everyone except Mharman is a mistake.
No, Mharman being a town lock dopped everyone's odds of being town below random chance.
#387
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@Savant
#359 - SL - A bit opportunistic, plus a weird assumption with no detailed analysis to go with it.
Fair enough, I was planning on expanding on my thoughts on my break, which is now. Basically, it was the way you suggested that Mharman might have some role which could town confirm him and voted for him for no clear reason. And then, hey presto, he's the doctor! But he weirdly refused to claim his character, which made me think that he may have asked if there was a Doctor and was told no, but maybe his character question didn't work out so well. Or, maybe he just hasn't come up with anything good.
#388
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@Mharman
How does Salmonella enable?
I enable the survival of "microbes that help me" apparently.
#389
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Basically, the whole situation with Savant voting for Mharman and Mharman claiming doctor felt staged to me. 
#390
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@Savant
You probably need to redefine what percentage defines “scum lean” then. Make it 5/7.