In a game you choose your attributes and what you want your character to be like. Well you can also do that in real life and then ask AI to review your posts or emails after the fact and tell you how you failed to be that character and tell you how to improve. You can take pictures of your wardrobe to see if it fits your character and ask for advice on how your character would approach a situation. Then you turn it into a voice in your held and then slowly have that voice kill your current voice.
Microbiology Mafia DP1
Posts
Read-only
Total:
690
1. Savant - Gram Negative
2. Banana - Gram Positive
3. Casey_Risk - Gram Negative
4. Lunatic - Gram Positive
5. Earth - Gram Positive
6. Mharman - Gram Positive
7. ILikePie5 - Gram Negative
8. Mikal
9. WyIted - Mycobacterium - ???
I’ve never seen anything like Post 195 from Wylted. I was thinking about putting Wylted in my town pile for the reaction to Savant regarding “usually,” since him has scum doesn’t have reason to do that. But I was thinking more and why even say that in my defense. I also dislike Savant for basically lying about Casey’s meta and not recognizing the difference between his play and then Wylted’s. Then I saw post 195 and that reads a lot like what Savant would post. He basically already does in his chunk posts. I’ve also never seen Wylted go back to previous games if I recall correctly
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@Lunatic
Is this based on minimal effort, fluffy, lazy style posts? I would say that is mharmans scum tell, because he tends to go hard as town. Then again I was fluffing a bit earlier too so that'd make me a hypocrite.
It basically is and I actually agree with it but I also scumread Wylted so, idk lol
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@Lunatic
Are you still scum reading wylted after he explained the chat gpt thing? I buy it honestly, and his push on mharman feels pretty townie, whether he's right or wrong. Reminds me of when he was pushing austin in casey's game, he was super passionate about it like this, and was saying the same type of sh1t "He's confirmed scum etc etc". Wylted gets really confident when he thinks hes got a lead. I see him do it as scum too, but the passion is kind of missing from it, ya know? Like he is happy to get the lynch but doesn't care either way and is willing to switch votes to any mislynch target. He's staying pretty on course with the mharman read which I think is a good sign so far.
Behaviorally yes. Just the way he is posting is different. He claimed he’s using AI now to post, which could mask it, but it’s still odd to me. The only thing going for him is his character, which I’m confident is in the game. Whether it’s scum or town is a separate question. Mycobacterium is most famous for causing TB and Leprosy
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@ILikePie5
Behaviorally yes. Just the way he is posting is different. He claimed he’s using AI now to post, which could mask it, but it’s still odd to me. The only thing going for him is his character, which I’m confident is in the game. Whether it’s scum or town is a separate question. Mycobacterium is most famous for causing TB and Leprosy
okay, assuming he is scum, what about what he is doing is specifically scummy? Or is it just inherently scummy because it's "different" from how he has played before? Is playing differently always scummy?
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@WyIted
Bro I pulled up a town game and showed how he doesn't do it there and his fluffing wasn't limited to the early part of the DP
I'd expect him to double down and be more defensive as scum, rather than just trying to avoid playing to a playstyle. That is at least consistent with the times I've seen mharman play as scum (most recently in black ops mafia in his defense to banana, and villainous villains where he was lynched as third party). He tends to fight back and kind of make himself look worse, where as in this situation he just seems non-plussed about it, and is still inquiring elsewhere and not solely focused on his own scum read, or really making a big deal of it.
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@Lunatic
How does your rating thingy work? I don't get it. Like you have two town reads on pie, two scum read posts from pie, and you list him at "null 75%". Where does the percentage come into play, and why isn't that 50/50? You the go on to say that he is your biggest scum read? I just don't understand how the maths work, and what exactly factors into the percentages.
The code is pretty complicated. Basically the strength of each read is shifted toward town or scum to the point that makes the average probability 75% to account for subconscious bias. Before the shifting, everyone starts at 75%, but a town read for example works like this:
def inc_town_at_index(index, significance):
odds_town = odds_of_town[index][1]
odds_scum = 100 - odds_town
odds_of_town[index][1] = 100 * (odds_town * significance) / (odds_town * significance + odds_scum)
odds_town = odds_of_town[index][1]
odds_scum = 100 - odds_town
odds_of_town[index][1] = 100 * (odds_town * significance) / (odds_town * significance + odds_scum)
The math isn't that important to understand, just know that the avg odds of being town is 75% and reads shift that up and down.
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@Lunatic
okay, assuming he is scum, what about what he is doing is specifically scummy? Or is it just inherently scummy because it's "different" from how he has played before? Is playing differently always scummy?
It’s not, but I think it’s more reflective of his scum partner reining him in. It feels like that for sure. Like if I had to call a scum team right now, it would be Savant/Wylted. I’m willing to move on though cause I actually agree with Wylted on Mharman. Plus the character claim
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@Savant
Do you think this formula helps you significantly, as opposed to just saying "This person feels town or scum" Does the percentage really impact the reads much? I just wonder if all that extra effort and coding is worth it in the end.
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@ILikePie5
He claimed he’s using AI now to post
I did not say this. I am not using AI to post. You noticed a change in my behavior and I indicated why you may be seeing that change and it was related to my use of AI as a life coach essentially
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@Lunatic
as opposed to just saying "This person feels town or scum" Does the percentage really impact the reads much? I just wonder if all that extra effort and coding is worth it in the end.
It's not really that much work. If I had to say "this person feels town or scum" I would just end up hyper focusing on a few points, there's no way to intuitively account for dozens of pieces of information while also accounting for biases.
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@Savant
It's not really that much work. If I had to say "this person feels town or scum" I would just end up hyper focusing on a few points, there's no way to intuitively account for dozens of pieces of information while also accounting for biases.
I guess my brain works differently, I would just tell myself not to hyperfocus in that case, but different things work for different people.
We have less than 24 hours in the DP. I’m comfortable getting full claims from 2 people.
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@Lunatic
@Mharman
@Savant
@Casey_Risk
@iamanabanana
What do you all want to do next
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@ILikePie5
Dude I just woke up. Give me a bit. Initial thought is Savant.
Didn’t see Wylted’s claim until lunatic made a point about it. I think I do want his full, actually. As well as Savants.
You and Lunatic I haven’t fully ironed out.
What made you so quick to tr banana?
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@ILikePie5
Savant is in my POE, he hasn't really done a ton to make me town read him, and I am confused by his reads a bit. Also down to pressure banana since she hasn't posted more than twice.
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@Mharman
Dude I just woke up. Give me a bit. Initial thought is Savant.Didn’t see Wylted’s claim until lunatic made a point about it. I think I do want his full, actually. As well as Savants.You and Lunatic I haven’t fully ironed out.What made you so quick to tr banana?
Her instant effort to start forming a town block. I think scum Banana would just say I’m gram positive and leave. Not much of a sample size of her scum games tho, so could change
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@Lunatic
@Mharman
Savant is in my POE, he hasn't really done a ton to make me town read him, and I am confused by his reads a bit. Also down to pressure banana since she hasn't posted more than twice.
I’m fine pressuring Savant for a full claim
VTL Savant
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@ILikePie5
Then I saw post 195 and that reads a lot like what Savant would post. He basically already does in his chunk posts. I’ve also never seen Wylted go back to previous games if I recall correctly
Idk, rereading the back and forth between Savant and Wylted, it doesn't feel staged to me. I am having a hard time reading them, however. I will say that the only other time I can remember Wylted building a whole case against someone was in Heroic Heroes, where he was scum. He did say that he went back to look at my previous posts to judge me in UPick, however, and correctly figured out that I was scum. So there's that.
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@ILikePie5
I’m fine pressuring Savant for a full claimVTL Savant
I'm Salmonella. Will give my role if enough people demand it.
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@AdaptableRatman
You are online. Full claim please
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@Casey_Risk
He did say that he went back to look at my previous posts to judge me in UPick, however, and correctly figured out that I was scum. So there's that.
I do it if I notice something unusual and want to back test the trait to see if I am right. I don't always advertise it.
Your previous posts helped there because it helped me realize that you are actually quite good as town and have great insights that often get overlooked
Salmonella poisoning is bad. I wonder if mharman is ecoli
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@WyIted
You are online. Full claim please
He got replaced by Banana
1. Savant - Gram Negative - Salmonella - ???
2. Banana - Gram Positive
3. Casey_Risk - Gram Negative
4. Lunatic - Gram Positive
5. Earth - Gram Positive
6. Mharman - Gram Positive
7. ILikePie5 - Gram Negative
8. Mikal
9. WyIted - Atypical - Mycobacterium - ???
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@Lunatic
@ILikePie5
@WyIted
@Casey_Risk
@iamanabanana
Reads List 2.0
I’m assuming a 7v2 setup. Each player is assigned an estimated probability of being town based on how towny or scummy they are. The average probability of being town is 75%, since there are 6 town players left besides me and 2 scum players left.
Lunatic
- Town Lean (76.8%)
- Playing as Town: Castledp1, JFdp1, JFdp2
- Playing as Scum: Chessdp1, Chessdp2, Chessdp3
- #38, #47, #49 - TL - This comment indicated that Luna paid a good deal of attention to the posts he responded to, which I think is generally pro-town. Scum can joke around too, but they might be more likely to skim, especially if Wyled’s comment doesn’t look particularly opportunistic. Plus jumping around topics indicates a more natural and genuine train of thought.
- #40 - TL - Saying this almost as an afterthought indicates it’s probably not a strategic move.
- #151 - Slight SL - Could be opportunistic to defend a player for town cred without actually defending them, I’d expect more scum or town reading from Luna as town.
- #212, #214, #215, #216, #218 - TL - This detailed level of analysis is towny since none of it seems opportunistic.
- #232, #236 - TL - These town reads don’t seem opportunistic.
Wylted
- Town Lean (76.8%)
- Playing as Town: JFdp1, JFdp2, CoDdp1
- Playing as Scum: Castledp1, GSdp1
- #24, #30 - TL - Wylted draws attention to himself here, which would be a risk as scum, and these thoughts read genuine overall. There’s also a bit of nuance jumping from one subject to another, which I think scum would tend to avoid.
- #31, #33 - TL - Changing his mind without being asked also seems genuine here. It could be a scum play but doesn’t seem as likely.
- #43 - Slight TL - Insulting a player like this is a pretty big risk for scum to take.
- #63 - Slight TL - I think not reading the original post is a town tell.
- #142, #143 - SL - Opportunistic accusations with no details explaining them, could be a low-effort scum play
- #145 - TL - Different but in a towny way, I like this amount of nuance and it makes the comment seem more genuine
- #148, #150 - TL - These explanations don’t seem forced
- #164 - SL - A bit opportunistic to start on this when he’s just been accused by Pie. Feels a bit like an intentional distraction.
- #195 - TL - I don’t see WyIted putting this much effort into a read if he doesn’t actually believe it.
- #195 - Slight SL - WyIted was in this game and knew it was the last one Mharman played as town, he should have spotted Mharman saying “here” first thing that game.
- #230, #231 - TL - A good deal of effort than isn’t surface-level.
- #238, #239, #240 - TL - If WyIted were just scum here, I don’t see him caring enough to explain his actions to this extent.
Casey_Risk
- Scum Lean (76.0%)
- Playing as Town: SKdp1, SKdp2, SKdp3
- Playing as Scum: Gunplaydp1, Gunplaydp2, Gunplaydp3
- #34 - SL - I think a town member would be slightly more likely to avoid trusting AI, but a scum member might want to give themselves plausible deniability for getting it wrong, or just not be super concerned with accuracy since they can decide on a claim later. Or scum might not even use AI but say they did hoping it sounds genuine.
- #71, #79 - Slight TL - Given that Casey mentioned the signups page and nothing about WF’s first post, I think this indicates they haven’t paid too much attention to which roles are available for fake claims.
- #141 - TL - Reads seem detailed and genuine, if this is scum there’s a lot of effort being put in to seem towny, more than I’d expect.
- #209 - TL - A good amount of effort is put into analyzing WyIted, I don’t think scum would devote this much time to such a task.
- #260 - TL - Defending me and WyIted doesn’t seem opportunistic, and it would be easy for Casey to try to plant seeds of suspicion.
iamanabanana
- Town Lean (75.6%)
- Playing as Town: Governorsdp1, Governorsdp2, Governorsdp3
- Playing as Scum: GSdp1, GSdp2, GSdp3
- #113 - TL - I like that this post seems to have more thought put into it than banana’s first post last game, and I think scum would be less inclined to town read other players
ILikePie5
- Scum Lean (75.2%)
- Playing as Town: JFdp1, JFdp2, TRdp1
- Playing as Scum: TVdp1, TVdp2
- #60 - TL - This attempt at identifying a theme split seems genuine enough and not really aimed at getting town cred. Indicates a good deal of effort into thinking through possible mechanics.
- #117 - Slight TL - Not a huge risk, but generally in line with what I think helps the town rn
- #133, #140 - SL - Random accusation and low-effort reaction test, plus early town block with little justification or apparent effort behind them. Could be lazily faking his meta.
- #147 - Slight SL - While I kind of see where Pie’s coming from, this is a big leap to make from one post. Looking through old games, Pie tends to jump onto lynches opportunistically and make demands of players more rashly as scum.
- #243, #244, #245, #249 - TL - Pie is more thoughtful than usual and less aggressive than he could be, which I think is a town tell.
- #254, #255 - TL - I like that Pie is moving things forward in a pro-town way, and this doesn’t particularly benefit him if he’s scum
Mikal
- Town Lean (75.2%)
- Playing as Town: JFdp1, Riddledp1, Riddledp2
- Playing as Scum: Ozarkdp1, Ozarkdp2, Ozarkdp3
- #124 - Slight TL - Counterintuitively, I think I’ve usually seen this kind of defensiveness come from town. But a very slight read.
Earth
- Scum Lean (74.4%)
- Playing as Town: CoDdp1, CoDdp2, CoDdp3
- Playing as Scum: RRV2dp1, RRV2dp2, RRV2dp3
- #23 - TL - Being slightly hostile like this right out the gate comes off as genuine, since it has little strategic advantage.
- #58 - TL - I agree with this, and there’s not a super strategic reason for Earth to defend Pie here as scum, especially since he could just post less which is his meta.
- #70 - SL - Post indicates that Earth has paid close attention to what can be in the game. I think that’s slightly more likely from scum, especially since Earth doesn’t tend to be a super active player.
- #137 - Slight SL - Earth isn’t actually giving anything up here, and I don’t see another response he could give that didn’t raise obvious suspicion. The fact that he qualifies it with “moving the game along” might be an opportunistic attempt to gain town cred.
Mharman
- Scum Lean (69.9%)
- Playing as Town: JFdp1, JFdp2, JFdp3
- Playing as Scum: CoDdp1, CoDdp2, CoDdp3
- #4, #5 - TL - I think that scum would be under more pressure for their first post and keep it simple, not instantly make a reference to religious literature before voting someone without a good excuse.
- #7 - TL - I don’t think scum would focus on looking into player activity like this, plus switching the vote very confidently.
- #12 - Slight SL - I do think making a joke like this can be a way of “breaking the tension” as scum when posting a lot to avoid being scum read, but this is a very slight indicator.
- #14 - Slight SL - I think it benefits scum here to put pressure on another player like this, especially since Mharman has already voted and arguably needs to justify it.
- #45, #46, #50, #57 - SL - A bit surface level, could be faking genuine conversation. In this case jumping topics isn’t towny since it doesn’t show a lot of thought into scum hunting.
- #51, #53 - TL - High effort here is towny, especially jumping from another subject, and I think Mharman’s reads were a bit less detailed as town.
- #93, #94 - TL - I think the read on me is fair if Mharman thought I didn’t have any reads written yet (and I did promise them before going back and realizing my pg 3 reads were inaccurate last game).
- #104, #106 - TL - Explanations for these actions seem genuine
- #129 - Slight SL - Passing the buck to try to get other people to accuse someone is sometimes a scum move, but then this could also be genuine town. I think this is only slightly more likely to come from scum.
- #208 - SL - I tend to see reaction tests come from scum as lazy way to see like they are scum hunting.
- #210 - SL - I think town Mharman would put in more effort than just town reading someone for not scum reading him
- #220, #221, #225, #226 - SL - Very surface-level analysis that doesn’t reference much to justify it.
- #256 - SL - More reads that seem more opportunistic and vague than useful.
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@Earth
@Mharman
@Mikal
See above.
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@ILikePie5
@Casey_Risk
Pie and Casey should say "town lean," sry about that. But percentages are as intended.
Votes:
Mharman (1/5): WyIted
Mikal (1/5): Mharman
Savant (1/5): Pie
If we're talking about the biggest killers among diseases in history, it's a four-way race: Smallpox, Tuberculosis, Plague and Malaria, so a virus, two bacteria and a parasite. And while all of them have some claim to the top spot, the estimated winner (not like we can track back far enough to get a good count) is Tuberculosis, as it's estimated to have taken 1 billion lives since it's been around. There are other diseases that can claim to have killed more over a shorter span of time, but nothing beats TB in endurance.