Total posts: 4,276
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@Discipulus_Didicit
I think it's very likely I will be town confirmed tomorrow or I will be tonight's night kill. I can say I will be confirmed unless my target dies or I am roleblocked.
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@Discipulus_Didicit
No, if Pie is scum the smart move is to cast as much doubt as possible on the person scum reading him.
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@Discipulus_Didicit
I'm fine being filed into that category, because I will bet my life on the odds that either scum don't have a roleblocker, or I can catch a scum player today. Shouldn't be hard as long as town takes my reads seriously.
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@WyIted
Town is going to lynch me tomorrow if I don't confirm myself tonight. Under those circumstances, you have every reason to trust my scum read on Pie, and there's 2 scum between him, Mharman, and WF if you are right about your townreads. You have every reason to suspect him rn over every other player.
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@Discipulus_Didicit
Just think of me as super motivated to catch scum, because if they have a roleblocker left tonight, I die tomorrow. So when I say I scum read Pie like my life depends on it, you know I mean it.
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@Barney
@ILikePie5
@WyIted
I will tonight.
VTL Pie, he's the only one I have a scum read on atm.
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@ILikePie5
@Mharman
@Discipulus_Didicit
@WyIted
I'm affiliation confirmable, just fyi
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@WyIted
moozer being 90%s scum last game
What is your justification that moozer's behavior was 90% likely to be scum? As of now, we have one data point, and it does not support your hypothesis. I say hypothesis instead of theory, because theories ar typically supported by evidence.
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@WyIted
@Casey_Risk
Savant is 62% to be scum
WyIted is 63% likely to be scum. I will not elaborate, and if you disagree it means you don't understand probability. [Insert condescending analogy about flipping coins that assumes you don't know what 50/50 means.]
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@Intelligence_06
Bring back rated debates without restrictions
I think the restrictions are to avoid farming new players. Actually makes sense imo.
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@Discipulus_Didicit
@WyIted
Also why is whiteflame everyone's top scum read? Because he's not posting much? He's got way too much experience playing for that to be an obvious giveaway he's scum.
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@ILikePie5
@WyIted
Why is it more concerning to you that I put 420 in my town pool than it is that I put Barney or disc in my town pool
Because I didn't pay attention to why you town read those people. I'm questioning the logic D_D is using, not your instincts. I'm willing to go with your instincts/reads for now, I'm just saying it's a possibility.
Nice strawman.
I believe you made that post to try and make us argue with each other. You can deny that was your intention, but I think it likely was.
You’re the one fighting with Wylted about some he reads as town. You’re the one trying to remove him from Wylted’s town pile.
Wylted's town pile will likely stay how it is because it's based on first impressions and intuition. I'm explaining why I don't personally buy that 420 must be town independently of Wylted's intuition.
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@Discipulus_Didicit
Not from Underdog.
Their partner could have come up with it.
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@ILikePie5
@WyIted
Do you scumread 420?
No, but I don't town read them. It seems like you're trying to make us fight each other, which comes across as scummy. Wonder what WyIted thinks about that.
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@WyIted
@420-1776
There is one murderer killing people and the town votes on who they think the murderer is.
If you've played other versions, you should know that there can be more than one murderer. This could easily be a fake town slip by scum.
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@WyIted
Scum reads I fuck up occasionally, but never town reads
Ok, so if all four of your non-town-reads are innocent, then you are probably scum.
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@WyIted
NeutralMharmanSavant
That's right, I'm pretty mysterious.
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@WyIted
Could you put all your reads in a list or something? Because I'm not sure how big this town block is that you're talking about.
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@Discipulus_Didicit
420-1776 just gave a blatant town slip.
So blatant that it could easily be a scum strategy.
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@WyIted
You may be right, but it's too soon to tell imo. Scum can usually outsmart WIFOM in one or two posts, but it's hard to do it consistently.
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@WyIted
Barney is also town along with Casey
How do you know this from one post? That's way too small of a sample size.
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@Best.Korea
I present 4 arguments
What is the 4th?
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@ILikePie5
What I believed before, and what this game has reinforced, is that "objectively scummy" is not the same thing as being scum. Scum know how to act "objectively townie," which is why things sometimes have to come down to instinct. Scum know what the Meta is and play along with it. Also, WIFOM gets dismissed way too easily, but sometimes WIFOM works if you know how to read people.
Not that I blame you for using the strategy you did, since it won you the game, but I think it clearly wasn't in the interest of the town in this game.
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@ILikePie5
Shooting Earth was scummy as fuck
Maybe, but they both said "I think Pie is scum" and then they voted against Wylted. If they actually suspected Wylted it would have made more sense.
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@ILikePie5
@Casey_Risk
Good job. I feel kind of bad for Wylted (less bad than if he had used his shot on Pie like he promised), but I have no idea what Luna and Barney were thinking voting to lynch town because scum "deserved to win." It did convince me that the town deserved to lose, though.
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@AustinL0926
You don't have long to edit your post once you've posted it. Unless DART has changed that.
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@3RU7AL
Steel-man Best.Korea's argument in this debate:
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@Intelligence_06
I doubt the data set would be large enough. You'd need billions, if not trillions of debates to train it on.
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@WyIted
Democrat voters were well aware of Biden's mental state. That's why they said, "I would rather vote for Biden's corpse than for Trump."
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@Moozer325
Which candidate fell asleep during their own trial?
I wouldn't know, I slept through the trial too.
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@Moozer325
I'll make the case for Trump and then the case for Biden.
First, the case for Trump. According to CNN, Trump lied 30 times, and Biden lied about 9. Making misleading claims is a much lesser flaw for a president than mumbling through sentences, because fact-checkers exist. Also, having a good poker face can be useful in discussions with geopolitical foes—Trump misleading Putin about our military strength could be an advantage, whereas Biden falling asleep during a negotiation would only be a flaw. Furthermore, the reason more falsehoods were attributed to Trump could be that Biden failed to finish a complete thought most of the time, so he simply had less opportunities to make misleading or false claims. Trump told the truth about what governor Northam said, since the full quote was "If a mother is in labor, I can tell you exactly what would happen. The infant would be delivered, the infant would be kept comfortable, the infant would be resuscitated if that’s what the mother and the family desired. And then a discussion would ensue between the physicians and the mother." So clearly some democrats do support infanticide or at least allowing infants to die in some circumstances. Trump didn't clarify exactly what those circumstances were, but Northam was vague about it as well, and Trump's claim that Northam implicitly supported infanticide in some cases was true.
Now the case for Biden. Most of this is what you said, but I'll add a bit more. Trump's claim about Northam implied broader Democratic support for infanticide than realistically exists. People are taken off of life support all the time, and we don't call it murder. It's unclear whether Northam actually supported killing infants directly in that quote or just removing support. He claimed later that he didn't support infanticide, and we should take his word for it. Perhaps Biden could have added context, but Trump knew he wasn't a great speaker and took advantage of that in order to mislead the audience. Biden might stumble a lot, but this means he will listen to his staff and be less likely to make rash decisions. Being a bad public speaker doesn't automatically mean that Biden is mentally slow in all facets, and the president doing less himself is less of a danger than someone who will make sweeping executive decisions and act on their emotions.
Yep, these are the best cases for each of our only two choices. Feel proud to be American yet?
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Nate Silver gives Trump a 66% chance of winning the Electoral College. Not that every statistician's hot take should be taken as gospel, and he could always be exaggerating to get clicks, but I think the odds are in Trump's favor.
One of the top replies is "Biden will win and it will not be remotely close," so it looks like social media users aren't entirely sold on Silver's polling methods. But his model is probably the best we have to go on at the moment.
Interestingly, we live in a timeline where Stephen King's election predictions get more engagement than Nate Silver's.
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@TheUnderdog
John Brown made Lincoln possible.
It's just as likely that he made Lincoln's job harder. Lincoln denounced John Brown as a radical, and Brown made abolitionists look bad.
to lie about what you really believe doesn’t please anyone
You don't have to lie to say "let's pass [x] law" or to vote for a moderate. Most people with John Brown's mentality probably voted for Lincoln, because it was the easiest way forward.
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@WyIted
geniuses like Einstein are always failing at school
This is sort of true and sort of false. Einstein did very well in math classes (as expected), but he dropped out because he hated the curriculum. He also failed the entrance exam for Zurich the first time he attempted it, though he did well on the math section. Reportedly he struggled there, but he got a PHD in 1905, so I'd say he was a better student than most.
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@3RU7AL
why not free healthcare for pregnant mothers and bastard children ?
I would support that.
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@TheUnderdog
Then it makes sense to punish abortion with death.
So anti-abortion people can (a) advocate abortions be punished with death and not succeed at passing legislation, or (b) advocate more politically feasible legislation and have a chance at banning abortion. Why would they choose (a) in the current political climate? There's a reason Abraham Lincoln was more successful than John Brown.
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@Owen_T
The current Wylted spells his name with a capital i instead of an l. He had an old account that got banned, so he made a new one.
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@rosends
Don't worry, Wylted trolls everyone.
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@Discipulus_Didicit
@WyIted
Even the libertarians on reddit are left leaning
r/libertarian is left-leaning because their posts make it into r/all. r/goldandblack is more right-leaning.
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How do you know that Allah is the one true God?
Because the universe began with an explosion.
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@WyIted
I will shoot pie if you self vote and turn out to be town
Deal
VTL Savant
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@WyIted
Mario says, "People are dying. Don't root for anybody."
Luigi says, "If they're brown, mow them down."
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@ILikePie5
Anyways I’m done responding to Savant.
So that was a lie.
I changed my opinion with new information.
What new information?
I already explained this.
The site doesn't say it's always a town role, in fact it said it can be a scum role, even if it's usually town.
Okay now I’m actually done.
We'll see.
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@Lunatic
@Barney
@ILikePie5
@WyIted
@Moozer325
I’m not going to risk 2 town mislynches if Savant is actually scum
Do you mean actually town?
Since Pie doesn't actually seem very confident in me being scum, then maybe none of you should be either.
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@ILikePie5
And how’s he going to know?
Because placing them at the same time is an infinitesimal chance, and he wouldn't kill Wylted over that chance.
Also, wouldn't being the last person to vote Wylted make me look super suspicious if I did that?
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@ILikePie5
You thought you could use the role for town cred
Why would I think that if I got the role as scum?
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@ILikePie5
Even Wylted isn’t town
Sry, I do townread Wylted and Barney. (You didn't townread Wylted and were against giving him the shot, but then you flip-flopped once he had the shot.)
so the two people you OMGUS are scu
The "I attacked you first" defense. Accusing me first does not make you town, and I already explained why your behavior made me suspect you.
I’m confident that it won’t come to 2 townie getting lynched because Savant is scum.
Now you're getting it. If you really are sure I'm scum, you should be confident that a 1v1 won't lead to 2 townies getting lynched
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