Microbiology Mafia DP1

Author: whiteflame
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#511
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@Savant
Banana is your strongest town read despite having made two posts total?
It’s not in order.

If this is about RM's posts, I think they help banana, but it's not a lock. Don't see how it makes banana more towny than the only claimed doctor, a potentially confirmable role. Or stronger than anyone whose posted a lot more.

#512
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I always love how I’m scumread for initiating the game basically everytime.

#513
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@Savant
In order it’s:

Pie
Mharman
Earth
Wylted
Banana
Lunatic

Casey
Mikal
Savant 
#514
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@Lunatic
@Mharman
Wakey wakey
#515
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1. Savant - Gram Negative - Salmonella - Doctor Enabler
2. Banana - Gram Positive
3. Casey_Risk - Gram Negative
4. Lunatic - Gram Positive
5. Earth - Gram Positive
6. Mharman - Gram Positive - Lactobacillus - Doctor
7. ILikePie5 - Gram Negative
8. Mikal
9. WyIted - Atypical - Mycobacterium - Avoider

#516
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@Casey_Risk
Idk, rereading the back and forth between Savant and Wylted, it doesn't feel staged to me. I am having a hard time reading them, however. I will say that the only other time I can remember Wylted building a whole case against someone was in Heroic Heroes, where he was scum. He did say that he went back to look at my previous posts to judge me in UPick, however, and correctly figured out that I was scum. So there's that. 
He also was saying I was for sure scum in castlevania mafia too, though I think it was mostly omgus after I ad caught him on many slips. 
#517
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@Savant
I'm the enabler. When I die, the doctor role stops working.
Interesting. Did you consider lying about your claim? Not judging your play just asking as im generally curious about your thought process in claiming here. Sometimes lying can backfire and its best to be honest if you aren't good at it, so again not judging just wondering if you didn't think you could pull off a good enough townie lie here.
#518
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@Mharman
Fuck it I’m dragging out progress at this point.

I am the doctor.

I obviously have reason to townread Savant now. I was trying to play dumb about it for the sake of a minmax that doesn’t matter anymore.
Okay you two are town, or this is t he craziest mafia gambit I've ever seen. 
#519
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@WyIted
I don't think there is a doctor in the game. I think scum asked if a doctor was in the game and the mod said no and so they both made claims around it. I am willing to lynch savant first I'd it town confirms mharman though and explore new theories. If savant is scum it confirms my theory
Wow you actually think they are pulling a scum gambit?! come one dude
#520
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@ILikePie5
Doesn’t mean that he’s not scum. 
No, but again, Savant probably wouldn't be eager to straightclaim his scum character.

That’s a false equivalency. Earth is Earth. His play style was exactly the way it was as town, which I explained to Mikal. In fact, I think I said that if Earth is scum, Survivor was the fake claim or he was claiming his true character. His behavior though matched his town behavior even though it was scummy. That characterization doesn’t exist with Savant.
??? I genuinely don't know what you're talking about. Savant hasn't been acting any differently in this game from what I've seen. The percentages thing is new-ish, but that started in the previous game, and it makes sense that he'd continue with it.

You’re also forgetting that Banana and Mikal haven’t checked in yet either, and as you said, we don’t know the roles. 
They both have. Mikal is pure null for me, and you also townread Banana. Contradict yourself much?

I’m not the lynch today. 
Don't get too cocky. 

Why do you townread Savant? What behavior or character/role/justification reason do you have?
I just explained this... Character and balance... 

Pie's logic is so bad, lol
#521
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@Savant
At this point, I'd rather pursue a lynch on Mharman than go after anyone else for a claim. I mean, if his claim can prove his innocence, he'll give it before we lynch him anyway.
WHAT?! YOUR ROLE LITERALLY CONFIRMS THE EXISTENCE OF A DOCTOR. Why would you EVER lynch mharman here?!
#522
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@Lunatic
Did you consider lying about your claim? Not judging your play just asking as im generally curious about your thought process in claiming here. Sometimes lying can backfire and its best to be honest if you aren't good at it, so again not judging just wondering if you didn't think you could pull off a good enough townie lie here.
I thought about it but then I figured doctor could probably protect me at night and I thought getting caught in a lie would probably just screw me over. I mean I was the first to role claim so there was a good chance any lie would get counterclaimed.

Also but less so, even now there's a chance I'm lying to bait a NK from scum POV (less so now that a doc has claimed).
#523
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@Lunatic
WHAT?! YOUR ROLE LITERALLY CONFIRMS THE EXISTENCE OF A DOCTOR. Why would you EVER lynch mharman here?!
That was before he claimed doctor. After he did, I town locked him.
#524
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@Savant
Nevermind, I see I am responding to posts out of order, you said he was a townlock. MB. 
#525
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@WyIted
I think we need to clear savant first. For mharman to be scum than savant has to be scum but if mharman is town than it means savant can be scum. If all possible worlds it is now more likely savant is scum than mharman

Unvote VTL savant
Okay I am now severely starting to doubt my earlier town read on you. 
#526
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@Lunatic
Wow you actually think they are pulling a scum gambit?! come one dude
Well behaviorally mharman is actually scum. He doesn't fluff that much as town from the game I pulled up, his reads are less non committal as town . As town he doesn't seem to be into appeasement but he seems to be this game . Etc .

Why would a member of town exhibit scum behavior? 
#527
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@Casey_Risk
No, but again, Savant probably wouldn't be eager to straightclaim his scum character.
We’ll never know till he gets lynched.

??? I genuinely don't know what you're talking about. Savant hasn't been acting any differently in this game from what I've seen. The percentages thing is new-ish, but that started in the previous game, and it makes sense that he'd continue with it
??? You’re comparing my reaction to Earth last game and saying my play style is different because I didn’t react the same way towards Savant when Earth and Savant don’t play the same way.

They both have. Mikal is pure null for me, and you also townread Banana. Contradict yourself much?
I was referring to your balance argument. We don’t have the full picture if either or both of them are town.

Don't get too cocky.
I promise you that I’m not the lynch lol. It’s not going to happen

I just explained this... Character and balance...

Pie's logic is so bad, lol
Again, character means jackshit. And I explained the balance argument to you about the negative utility aspect with the Doctor and its extreme weakness by needing to select the scum NKer to begin with. An Enabler probably makes the balance worse.

Also, are you just going to ignore my argument against Savant? Is your justification as weak as his? Because mine isn’t, Savant’s isn’t. Wylted’s is there via the mycolic acid in the cell wall to avoid the impact of the antibiotics and white blood cells
#528
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@whiteflame
Timecheck?
#529
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Okay, a few things changed. Reads incoming.
#530
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@Casey_Risk
Anyone else getting the vibe that Savant and Mharman are a team? 
I would be incredibly surprised if they were, but its not out of the realm of possibility. Its just an extremely ballsy move and I wouldn't expect scum to make it dp1. 
#531
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Reads List 5.0
I’m assuming a 7v2 setup. Each player is assigned an estimated probability of being town based on how towny or scummy they are. The average probability of being town is 75%, since there are 6 town players left besides me and 2 scum players left.

Mharman
  • Town Lock (100%)
  • Playing as Town: JFdp1, JFdp2, JFdp3
  • Playing as Scum: CoDdp1, CoDdp2, CoDdp3
  • #4, #5 - TL - I think that scum would be under more pressure for their first post and keep it simple, not instantly make a reference to religious literature before voting someone without a good excuse.
  • #7 - TL - I don’t think scum would focus on looking into player activity like this, plus switching the vote very confidently.
  • #12 - Slight SL - I do think making a joke like this can be a way of “breaking the tension” as scum when posting a lot to avoid being scum read, but this is a very slight indicator.
  • #14 - Slight SL - I think it benefits scum here to put pressure on another player like this, especially since Mharman has already voted and arguably needs to justify it.
  • #45, #46, #50, #57 - SL - A bit surface level, could be faking genuine conversation. In this case jumping topics isn’t towny since it doesn’t show a lot of thought into scum hunting.
  • #51, #53 - TL - High effort here is towny, especially jumping from another subject, and I think Mharman’s reads were a bit less detailed as town.
  • #93, #94 - TL - I think the read on me is fair if Mharman thought I didn’t have any reads written yet (and I did promise them before going back and realizing my pg 3 reads were inaccurate last game).
  • #104, #106 - TL - Explanations for these actions seem genuine
  • #129 - Slight SL - Passing the buck to try to get other people to accuse someone is sometimes a scum move, but then this could also be genuine town. I think this is only slightly more likely to come from scum.
  • #208 - SL - I tend to see reaction tests come from scum as a lazy way to seem like they are scum hunting.
  • #210 - SL - I think town Mharman would put in more effort than just town reading someone for not scum reading him.
  • #220, #221, #225, #226 - SL - Very surface-level analysis that doesn’t reference much to justify it.
  • #256 - SL - More reads that seem more opportunistic and vague than useful.
  • #325 - TOWN LOCK - Only doc claim, and my role confirms the existence of a doctor.
Wylted
  • Town Lock (96.2%)
  • Playing as Town: JFdp1, JFdp2, CoDdp1
  • Playing as Scum: Castledp1, GSdp1
  • #24, #30 - TL - Wylted draws attention to himself here, which would be a risk as scum, and these thoughts read genuine overall. There’s also a bit of nuance jumping from one subject to another, which I think scum would tend to avoid.
  • #31, #33 - TL - Changing his mind without being asked also seems genuine here. It could be a scum play but doesn’t seem as likely.
  • #43 - Slight TL - Insulting a player like this is a pretty big risk for scum to take.
  • #63 - Slight TL - I think not reading the original post is a town tell.
  • #142, #143 - SL - Opportunistic accusations with no details explaining them, could be a low-effort scum play.
  • #145 - TL - Different but in a towny way, I like this amount of nuance and it makes the comment seem more genuine.
  • #148, #150 - TL - These explanations don’t seem forced.
  • #164 - SL - A bit opportunistic to start on this when he’s just been accused by Pie. Feels a bit like an intentional distraction.
  • #195 - TL - I don’t see WyIted putting this much effort into a read if he doesn’t actually believe it.
  • #195 - Slight SL - WyIted was in this game and knew it was the last one Mharman played as town, he should have spotted Mharman saying “here” first thing that game.
  • #230, #231 - TL - A good deal of effort than isn’t surface-level.
  • #238, #239, #240 - TL - If WyIted were just scum here, I don’t see him caring enough to explain his actions to this extent.
  • #328, #335 - SL - I don’t think town WyIted would be crazy enough to bet everything on Mharman and I being a team and making a bold play like this so early in the game.
  • #360 - SL - Switching accusations like this a bit opportunistically after Mharman had a solid claim very confidently with little basis.
  • #423 - Strong Town - Role is confirmable, and it sounds like a town aligned role.
  • #476 - SL - Feels like a bit of an opportunistic excuse.
  • #458 - TL - I don’t see WyIted working this hard on a fake claim as scum.
Lunatic
  • Scum Lean (74.1%)
  • Playing as Town: Castledp1, JFdp1, JFdp2
  • Playing as Scum: Chessdp1, Chessdp2, Chessdp3
  • #38, #47, #49 - TL - This comment indicated that Luna paid a good deal of attention to the posts he responded to, which I think is generally pro-town. Scum can joke around too, but they might be more likely to skim, especially if Wyled’s comment doesn’t look particularly opportunistic. Plus jumping around topics indicates a more natural and genuine train of thought.
  • #40 - TL - Saying this almost as an afterthought indicates it’s probably not a strategic move.
  • #151 - Slight SL - Could be opportunistic to defend a player for town cred without actually defending them, I’d expect more scum or town reading from Luna as town.
  • #212, #214, #215, #216, #218 - TL - This detailed level of analysis is towny since none of it seems opportunistic.
  • #232, #236 - TL - These town reads don’t seem opportunistic.
  • #518, #519, #525 - TL - I agree that this would be a crazy gambit, and it’s pro town for Luna to town-read us.
iamanabanana
  • Scum Lean (73.6%)
  • Playing as Town: Governorsdp1, Governorsdp2, Governorsdp3
  • Playing as Scum: GSdp1, GSdp2, GSdp3
  • #113 - TL - I like that this post seems to have more thought put into it than banana’s first post last game, and I think scum would be less inclined to town read other players.
  • #287 - TL - I think RM would be more worried about the risk for giving a full claim if his role was town.
Mikal
Casey_Risk
  • Scum Lean (66.4%)
  • Playing as Town: SKdp1, SKdp2, SKdp3
  • Playing as Scum: Gunplaydp1, Gunplaydp2, Gunplaydp3
  • #34 - SL - I think a town member would be slightly more likely to avoid trusting AI, but a scum member might want to give themselves plausible deniability for getting it wrong, or just not be super concerned with accuracy since they can decide on a claim later. Or scum might not even use AI but say they did hoping it sounds genuine.
  • #71, #79 - Slight TL - Given that Casey mentioned the signups page and nothing about WF’s first post, I think this indicates they haven’t paid too much attention to which roles are available for fake claims.
  • #141 - TL - Reads seem detailed and genuine, if this is scum there’s a lot of effort being put in to seem towny, more than I’d expect.
  • #209 - TL - A good amount of effort is put into analyzing WyIted, I don’t think scum would devote this much time to such a task.
  • #260 - TL - Defending me and WyIted doesn’t seem opportunistic, and it would be easy for Casey to try to plant seeds of suspicion.
  • #359 - NAI - Explained by a later post.
  • #382 - TL - As much as I hate the vote on me, I think the logic here is coming from town Casey.
  • #387, #389 - TL - Again, towny attention to detail.
  • #392 - TL - Unvote seems very genuine and there’s no opportunistic reason for it.
  • #467 - Slight TL - This post seems kind of towny and I do like some of the logic, but I could also see it maybe coming from scum.
  • #506 - TL - I agree with the thoughts on balance, and given the level of detail I think this would be hard to fake as scum.
  • #520 - Slight TL - Mostly agree, though agreement is only a slightly alignment indicative. Could be opportunistic against Pie, but then it’s clearly not opportunistic against me.
ILikePie5
  • Scum Lean (62.9%)
  • Playing as Town: JFdp1, JFdp2, TRdp1
  • Playing as Scum: TVdp1, TVdp2
  • #60 - TL - This attempt at identifying a theme split seems genuine enough and not really aimed at getting town cred. Indicates a good deal of effort into thinking through possible mechanics.
  • #117 - Slight TL - Not a huge risk, but generally in line with what I think helps the town rn.
  • #133, #140 - SL - Random accusation and low-effort reaction test, plus early town block with little justification or apparent effort behind them. Could be lazily faking his meta.
  • #147 - Slight SL - While I kind of see where Pie’s coming from, this is a big leap to make from one post. Looking through old games, Pie tends to jump onto lynches opportunistically and make demands of players more rashly as scum.
  • #243, #244, #245, #249 - TL - Pie is more thoughtful than usual and less aggressive than he could be, which I think is a town tell.
  • #254, #255 - TL - I like that Pie is moving things forward in a pro-town way, and this doesn’t particularly benefit him if he’s scum.
  • #378 - TL - I think this is townie for Pie to admit and a pro-town concern.
  • #403, #410 - TL - Pie’s pushiness has decent reasoning behind it, so I town read him for it.
  • #455 - SL - This speculation largely seems like it’s trying to gain town cred without actually committing to anything.
  • #509a - SL - This seems like a very opportunistic attempt to expand the PoE.
  • #509b - Strong Town - Claiming a confirmable role is a significant risk as scum.
Earth
  • Scum Lean (56.7%)
  • Playing as Town: CoDdp1, CoDdp2, CoDdp3
  • Playing as Scum: RRV2dp1, RRV2dp2, RRV2dp3
  • #23 - TL - Being slightly hostile like this right out the gate comes off as genuine, since it has little strategic advantage.
  • #58 - TL - I agree with this, and there’s not a super strategic reason for Earth to defend Pie here as scum, especially since he could just post less which is his meta.
  • #70 - SL - Post indicates that Earth has paid close attention to what can be in the game. I think that’s slightly more likely from scum, especially since Earth doesn’t tend to be a super active player.
  • #137 - Slight SL - Earth isn’t actually giving anything up here, and I don’t see another response he could give that didn’t raise obvious suspicion. The fact that he qualifies it with “moving the game along” might be an opportunistic attempt to gain town cred.
  • #459 - TL - Pretty towny to defend us when he could easily jump on the wagon or at least go along with it. Defending Pie is also not opportunistic.
#532
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@Lunatic
Okay you two are town, or this is t he craziest mafia gambit I've ever seen. 
If Mharman is scum, Savant is always scum.
If Savant is scum, Mharman can still be town

Justification for Savant is non-existent.
#533
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via the mycolic acid in the cell wall to avoid the impact of the antibiotics and white blood cells
WTF is wrong with you?

WTF is Mycolic acid? WTF is a cell wall?!why do we have antibiotics and white blood cells if viruses can choose to avoid them anyway?

Is even knowing what Mycolic acid is common knowledge? How did you figure this out?
#534
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@WyIted
Well behaviorally mharman is actually scum. He doesn't fluff that much as town from the game I pulled up, his reads are less non committal as town . As town he doesn't seem to be into appeasement but he seems to be this game . Etc .

Why would a member of town exhibit scum behavior? 

Perception is in the eye of the beerholder, I mean beholder. Earth for example is constantly mislynched for "exhibiting scum behavior". Maybe it's not his behavior that needs to be analyzed, its our view of his behavior. I get that you've spent a large amount of time investing in this case, but I suspect, if not just scum, you may be victim to confirmation bias here. We all fall for it sometimes. 
#535
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I am not trying to be a dick but if somebody looked me straight in the eye and said Mycolic acid I would beat their ass. 
#536
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@WyIted
WTF is wrong with you?

WTF is Mycolic acid? WTF is a cell wall?!why do we have antibiotics and white blood cells if viruses can choose to avoid them anyway?

Is even knowing what Mycolic acid is common knowledge? How did you figure this out?
You talked about cell wall and acid if I remember correctly. Antibiotics and WBCs I got from Google 
#537
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@ILikePie5
If Mharman is scum, Savant is always scum.
If Savant is scum, Mharman can still be town

Justification for Savant is non-existent.

True, savant can be scum, but he would have gambled the existence of a doctor here if so, or I guess he could have asked the question. I think it's also probable they are just both town though.
Topic's author
#538
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Approximately 12.5 hours remain in the DP.

Votes:

Earth (1/5): Savant
Pie (2/5): WyIted, Casey
WyIted (1/5): Pie

There are some really odd interactions between microbes that scientists are still struggling to fully explain. For example, while everyone may be familiar with Hepatitis A, B and C, there's also a Delta virus that's been called a "satellite virus". It doesn't produce everything a virus needs to get by, usually just the coat protein and a few minor proteins, so it requires a parent virus to replicate. That's usually Hepatitis B, and for some reason, it makes infections of the liver far worse than with Hep B alone. 
#539
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@Lunatic
I get that you've spent a large amount of time investing in this case, but I suspect, if not just scum, you may be victim to confirmation bias here. We all fall for it sometimes. 
The problem i have with it is my evidence being completely ignored with zero explanation as to why his behavior here is more similar to his scum behavior than town behavior. Go count percentage of posts that are fluff in the scum game I showed you and percentage in the town game and compare it to the percentage here. I am seeing something and it may be a red herring in some way but it exists
#540
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unvote