Microbiology Mafia DP1

Author: whiteflame
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#631
Mharman
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@ILikePie5
@Savant
@WyIted
I’m caught up. Savant and Wylted are both weird to me. I’m fine with either.
#632
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@Savant
If you are town, the odds of at least one scum in a group of three players is 58%.
If you choose three random players other than yourself, the odds are about 64% according to my calculations. (1-(6 choose 3))/(8 choose 3)
#633
Mharman
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@ILikePie5
Thought about just lynching Mikal, but the info from Savant or Wylted is better with good odds of hitting scum as well.

Games a clusterfuck and hard for me to read. Lowkey a Savant-Wylted team is not out of the question for me

I’ve decided you’re probably town, with Banana and Earth.

Lunatic, idk. Behavior in convos looks ok. Might join my town bloc.

Casey is someone I could see as scum.

I think my pool is Savant, Wylted, Casey, and Mikal.
#634
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Eh. Scum is hard for me to read anyway. I feel reasonably confident in some of my harder townreads.
#635
Mharman
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@iamanabanana
Your role is closer to Wylted’s by function. We have similar names but that’s not relevant imo. Our characters are not the same.
#636
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@ILikePie5
I guess I’ll go for wylted and you lmk if you really prefer Savant that badly

VTL Wylted
#637
Mharman
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I’m gonna call it a night.

I will also confess that I could’ve gotten to the thread sooner but I decided to watch the Pacers game lol

SGA ain’t shit when he’s not getting the foul calls. He’s desperate for them too. I saw him jump into a guy for a foul. Also tried checking Ben Sheppard and flopping. What a bitchass lol.

Anyways gn yall
#638
Earth
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I'm rethinking my reads. I get how doc might be nerfed with Doc Enabler, but town has like 3 protective roles and thats sus as everyone pointed out. I'll sleep on who to lynch, but its looking like it'll be Mikal, although I would prefer someone else.
#639
Savant
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@Casey_Risk
If you choose three random players other than yourself, the odds are about 64% according to my calculations
Yeah you're right, somehow I said "if you are town" and then calculated for 9 other players anyway.
#640
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@Earth
I'll sleep on who to lynch
We have like 10 hours. You can't sleep on it.
#641
Savant
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@whiteflame
Vote count?
#642
Savant
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This is why day phases should end before most players go to bed...idk why it became the norm to do the opposite.
#643
Savant
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@Earth
its looking like it'll be Mikal
You want to lynch an inactive when we have counterclaims?
#644
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@Earth
Banana's claim should be the most suspicious...only claimed protective when Casey asked if their role was protective. Didn't give a role description early on or at all. WyIted sucks at fake claiming, and "doctor" is more likely to be in the game than any other protective role, especially given mine.
#645
Savant
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@Earth
@WyIted
@iamanabanana
How did you find out? What!
I should also note that this reads the same way as it did during Mikal's bus. I think banana might have a tendency to use exclamation marks when lying, and it read insincere to me then too.
#646
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@Savant
I should also note that this reads the same way as it did during Mikal's bus. I think banana might have a tendency to use exclamation marks when lying, and it read insincere to me then too.

I think I noticed that too last game. Banana might be a good pick.
#647
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Reads List 6.0
I’m assuming a 7v2 setup. Each player is assigned an estimated probability of being town based on how towny or scummy they are. The average probability of being town is 75%, since there are 6 town players left besides me and 2 scum players left.

Mharman
  • Town Lock (100%)
  • Playing as Town: JFdp1, JFdp2, JFdp3
  • Playing as Scum: CoDdp1, CoDdp2, CoDdp3
  • #4, #5 - TL - I think that scum would be under more pressure for their first post and keep it simple, not instantly make a reference to religious literature before voting someone without a good excuse.
  • #7 - TL - I don’t think scum would focus on looking into player activity like this, plus switching the vote very confidently.
  • #12 - Slight SL - I do think making a joke like this can be a way of “breaking the tension” as scum when posting a lot to avoid being scum read, but this is a very slight indicator.
  • #14 - Slight SL - I think it benefits scum here to put pressure on another player like this, especially since Mharman has already voted and arguably needs to justify it.
  • #45, #46, #50, #57 - SL - A bit surface level, could be faking genuine conversation. In this case jumping topics isn’t towny since it doesn’t show a lot of thought into scum hunting.
  • #51, #53 - TL - High effort here is towny, especially jumping from another subject, and I think Mharman’s reads were a bit less detailed as town.
  • #93, #94 - TL - I think the read on me is fair if Mharman thought I didn’t have any reads written yet (and I did promise them before going back and realizing my pg 3 reads were inaccurate last game).
  • #104, #106 - TL - Explanations for these actions seem genuine
  • #129 - Slight SL - Passing the buck to try to get other people to accuse someone is sometimes a scum move, but then this could also be genuine town. I think this is only slightly more likely to come from scum.
  • #208 - SL - I tend to see reaction tests come from scum as a lazy way to seem like they are scum hunting.
  • #210 - SL - I think town Mharman would put in more effort than just town reading someone for not scum reading him.
  • #220, #221, #225, #226 - SL - Very surface-level analysis that doesn’t reference much to justify it.
  • #256 - SL - More reads that seem more opportunistic and vague than useful.
  • #325 - TOWN LOCK - Only doc claim, and my role confirms the existence of a doctor.
Wylted
  • Town (84.3%)
  • Playing as Town: JFdp1, JFdp2, CoDdp1
  • Playing as Scum: Castledp1, GSdp1
  • #24, #30 - TL - Wylted draws attention to himself here, which would be a risk as scum, and these thoughts read genuine overall. There’s also a bit of nuance jumping from one subject to another, which I think scum would tend to avoid.
  • #31, #33 - TL - Changing his mind without being asked also seems genuine here. It could be a scum play but doesn’t seem as likely.
  • #43 - Slight TL - Insulting a player like this is a pretty big risk for scum to take.
  • #63 - Slight TL - I think not reading the original post is a town tell.
  • #142, #143 - SL - Opportunistic accusations with no details explaining them, could be a low-effort scum play.
  • #145 - TL - Different but in a towny way, I like this amount of nuance and it makes the comment seem more genuine.
  • #148, #150 - TL - These explanations don’t seem forced.
  • #164 - SL - A bit opportunistic to start on this when he’s just been accused by Pie. Feels a bit like an intentional distraction.
  • #195 - TL - I don’t see WyIted putting this much effort into a read if he doesn’t actually believe it.
  • #195 - Slight SL - WyIted was in this game and knew it was the last one Mharman played as town, he should have spotted Mharman saying “here” first thing that game.
  • #230, #231 - TL - A good deal of effort than isn’t surface-level.
  • #238, #239, #240 - TL - If WyIted were just scum here, I don’t see him caring enough to explain his actions to this extent.
  • #328, #335 - SL - I don’t think town WyIted would be crazy enough to bet everything on Mharman and I being a team and making a bold play like this so early in the game.
  • #360 - SL - Switching accusations like this a bit opportunistically after Mharman had a solid claim very confidently with little basis.
  • #423 - Strong Town - Role is confirmable, and it sounds like a town aligned role.
  • #476 - SL - Feels like a bit of an opportunistic excuse.
  • #458 - TL - I don’t see WyIted working this hard on a fake claim as scum.
  • #572, #601 - SL - Counterclaim.
Lunatic
  • Town Lean (78.3%)
  • Playing as Town: Castledp1, JFdp1, JFdp2
  • Playing as Scum: Chessdp1, Chessdp2, Chessdp3
  • #38, #47, #49 - TL - This comment indicated that Luna paid a good deal of attention to the posts he responded to, which I think is generally pro-town. Scum can joke around too, but they might be more likely to skim, especially if Wyled’s comment doesn’t look particularly opportunistic. Plus jumping around topics indicates a more natural and genuine train of thought.
  • #40 - TL - Saying this almost as an afterthought indicates it’s probably not a strategic move.
  • #151 - Slight SL - Could be opportunistic to defend a player for town cred without actually defending them, I’d expect more scum or town reading from Luna as town.
  • #212, #214, #215, #216, #218 - TL - This detailed level of analysis is towny since none of it seems opportunistic.
  • #232, #236 - TL - These town reads don’t seem opportunistic.
  • #518, #519, #525 - TL - I agree that this would be a crazy gambit, and it’s pro town for Luna to town-read us.
Casey_Risk
  • Town Lean (75.9%)
  • Playing as Town: SKdp1, SKdp2, SKdp3
  • Playing as Scum: Gunplaydp1, Gunplaydp2, Gunplaydp3
  • #34 - SL - I think a town member would be slightly more likely to avoid trusting AI, but a scum member might want to give themselves plausible deniability for getting it wrong, or just not be super concerned with accuracy since they can decide on a claim later. Or scum might not even use AI but say they did hoping it sounds genuine.
  • #71, #79 - Slight TL - Given that Casey mentioned the signups page and nothing about WF’s first post, I think this indicates they haven’t paid too much attention to which roles are available for fake claims.
  • #141 - TL - Reads seem detailed and genuine, if this is scum there’s a lot of effort being put in to seem towny, more than I’d expect.
  • #209 - TL - A good amount of effort is put into analyzing WyIted, I don’t think scum would devote this much time to such a task.
  • #260 - TL - Defending me and WyIted doesn’t seem opportunistic, and it would be easy for Casey to try to plant seeds of suspicion.
  • #359 - NAI - Explained by a later post.
  • #382 - TL - As much as I hate the vote on me, I think the logic here is coming from town Casey.
  • #387, #389 - TL - Again, towny attention to detail.
  • #392 - TL - Unvote seems very genuine and there’s no opportunistic reason for it.
  • #467 - Slight TL - This post seems kind of towny and I do like some of the logic, but I could also see it maybe coming from scum.
  • #506 - TL - I agree with the thoughts on balance, and given the level of detail I think this would be hard to fake as scum.
  • #520 - Slight TL - Mostly agree, though agreement is only a slightly alignment indicative. Could be opportunistic against Pie, but then it’s clearly not opportunistic against me.
#648
Savant
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Mikal
ILikePie5
  • Scum Lean (70.6%)
  • Playing as Town: JFdp1, JFdp2, TRdp1
  • Playing as Scum: TVdp1, TVdp2
  • #60 - TL - This attempt at identifying a theme split seems genuine enough and not really aimed at getting town cred. Indicates a good deal of effort into thinking through possible mechanics.
  • #117 - Slight TL - Not a huge risk, but generally in line with what I think helps the town rn.
  • #133, #140 - SL - Random accusation and low-effort reaction test, plus early town block with little justification or apparent effort behind them. Could be lazily faking his meta.
  • #147 - Slight SL - While I kind of see where Pie’s coming from, this is a big leap to make from one post. Looking through old games, Pie tends to jump onto lynches opportunistically and make demands of players more rashly as scum.
  • #243, #244, #245, #249 - TL - Pie is more thoughtful than usual and less aggressive than he could be, which I think is a town tell.
  • #254, #255 - TL - I like that Pie is moving things forward in a pro-town way, and this doesn’t particularly benefit him if he’s scum.
  • #378 - TL - I think this is townie for Pie to admit and a pro-town concern.
  • #403, #410 - TL - Pie’s pushiness has decent reasoning behind it, so I town read him for it.
  • #455 - SL - This speculation largely seems like it’s trying to gain town cred without actually committing to anything.
  • #509a - SL - This seems like a very opportunistic attempt to expand the PoE.
  • #509b - Strong Town - Claiming a confirmable role is a significant risk as scum.
Earth
  • Scum Lean (61.4%)
  • Playing as Town: CoDdp1, CoDdp2, CoDdp3
  • Playing as Scum: RRV2dp1, RRV2dp2, RRV2dp3
  • #23 - TL - Being slightly hostile like this right out the gate comes off as genuine, since it has little strategic advantage.
  • #58 - TL - I agree with this, and there’s not a super strategic reason for Earth to defend Pie here as scum, especially since he could just post less which is his meta.
  • #70 - SL - Post indicates that Earth has paid close attention to what can be in the game. I think that’s slightly more likely from scum, especially since Earth doesn’t tend to be a super active player.
  • #137 - Slight SL - Earth isn’t actually giving anything up here, and I don’t see another response he could give that didn’t raise obvious suspicion. The fact that he qualifies it with “moving the game along” might be an opportunistic attempt to gain town cred.
  • #459 - TL - Pretty towny to defend us when he could easily jump on the wagon or at least go along with it. Defending Pie is also not opportunistic.
iamanabanana
  • Scum Lean (58.5%)
  • Playing as Town: Governorsdp1, Governorsdp2, Governorsdp3
  • Playing as Scum: GSdp1, GSdp2, GSdp3
  • #113 - TL - I like that this post seems to have more thought put into it than banana’s first post last game, and I think scum would be less inclined to town read other players.
  • #287 - TL - I think RM would be more worried about the risk of giving a full claim if his role was town.
  • #572, #601 - Strong Scum - Claimed a protective role opportunistically, then planted seeds to explain conflicting roles when she realized it was a cc. Also the exclamation mark reads like fake enthusiasm similarly to last game.
#649
Savant
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@Earth
I think I noticed that too last game. Banana might be a good pick.
Thank you, I swear I was tearing my hair out wondering how the probability for banana being scum could be the highest with such little data on them. But it made some sense once I looked more at all the reads.
#650
Savant
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Like banana is way calmer here

#651
Savant
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VTL banana
#652
Savant
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@Earth
If you're gonna go with me on this, do it before everyone goes to sleep.
#653
Savant
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Ok, I'm probably leaving it at that. I don't see banana getting lynched before the dp ends, so best we can hope for is probably no lynch. But I'm leaving my vote where it is because who knows.
#654
Lunatic
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Yeah the banana push looks real bad. I think Im leaning savant at this point. She's the CC'er, and hes pushing her because she used some explanation marks lol. Thats a bit fishy to me.
#655
Savant
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@Lunatic
She's the CC'er
What makes you think she knew it was a counter claim? If she'd accused WyIted of lying that would be different, but she just said "how did you know?" when Casey asked if she was town protective. Banana has admitted before to not reading through the whole thread. Also, scum banana can act like it's a big deal now and then after a mislynch claim a role that's not really a cc at all.
#656
Savant
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@whiteflame
Vote count?
#657
Savant
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@Lunatic
It's probably a moot point unless more people come online.
#658
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@Savant
What makes you think she knew it was a counter claim? If she'd accused WyIted of lying that would be different, but she just said "how did you know?" when Casey asked if she was town protective. Banana has admitted before to not reading through the whole thread. Also, scum banana can act like it's a big deal now and then after a mislynch claim a role that's not really a cc at all.
1. It wasn't a direct CC, which if scum she could have done . 

2. It makes her look bad if she CC'es and mharman/you aren't lying, whats the scum strategy here?

3. The same thing happened in russian mafia when she was town CC'ing earth, so its more likely shes just telling the truth again here. 

At worst, all three of you are town here and there was multiple protection roles. I was kind of leaning that way before you pounced on her a bit opportunistically right off of earths comment supporting you, earth who is also in my POE. It's a bad lynch all around, and if banana faked this as scum its incredibly risky, and will most likely backfire on her anyway, its more likely she's just actually town here. 
#659
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@Savant
Like banana is way calmer here
Wouldn't the more relevant Banana moment from that game be when she felt she had a CC on Earth at the end of DP1? 
#660
Savant
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@Lunatic
@Casey_Risk
you pounced on her a bit opportunistically right off of earths comment supporting you, earth who is also in my POE
Earth is my second scum read, but if we're gonna get a lynch today, we need all the votes we can get.

that game be when she felt she had a CC on Earth at the end of DP1? 
Don't remember that one. Did she use an exclamation mark?