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@Mikal
I just had an epiphany as I was typing that. What if earth is town and scum are not pushing or jumping on the lynch because he is an easy Mislynch?
Honestly? I can see that. I remember one game in particular (Bo Burnham Songs) where I suddenly had the idea that scum probably wouldn't be trying hard to push me, as I had claimed to be overall negative utility and was getting a lot of sus. That realization led to us catching WF on DP1. Right now, I have this gut feeling that scum are mostly or entirely among the less active players.
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@iamanabanana
But the one thing I think is holding me back from town reading him is that it feels like he is selling his own towniness a little too hard. "I would have consulted my scum team, I wouldn't need to catch up, see I am town!" or "I didn't read the OP, see if I was scum I would already know there was 3 scum!", etc etc. He's done that a few too many times for my comfort level, and hes obviously experienced and smart enough to know that stuff would look good for him, so why even bring attention to it? In fact I might have bought him as town for all those reasons anyway, if he hadn't personally brought them up himself. Anyways I wanted to put him as a town lean, but thats the main issue I have with him for the time being.
I don't see this as being AI for Austin in particular; he often uses a lot of self-analysis in his posts, both as town and as mafia.
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Okay, so Austin is probably town. Gladiator is rarely a scum role, though I did put a scum Gladiator in my last 3v8 game. But I also added in the "Super Governor" that was specifically meant to help balance against it. (I was wondering if the town would realize that Bullish's role suggested that he and Cerulean were not on the same team, but that never happened.) I will say that if anyone else would make a Gladiator mafia, it would probably be Lunatic. But for now, Austin feels town behaviorally. Strong gut read.
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I don't want to stay up too late tonight as I often do. I'll revisit this thread and my thoughts on Mikal and Moozer in particular in the morning.
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@Mikal
If someone else will verify that’s some strict town meta, I’ll go back and re read it all again with that in mind but everything in my gut is pointing a finger at her as a good Poe target.
Heroic Heroes DP1
Should we do something similar to what we did in Villainous Villains and have everyone say whether their character is real or fictional? [Me].Why ask without starting the trainMeReal- deadNext personJoeBob [Wylted].Never mind on the next one comment. Next Casey [Wylted]
This is the particular comment I remember and was thinking of. Maybe I'm leaning too much on Wylted's opinion, but yeah, if you are suggesting that sort of softclaim, it is typical to actually make the first claim yourself. I just can't see Banana doing the same as AI.
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@Mikal
Define your case for Anna. Sorry phone is aids and most of the time im Posting on memory.
This is what you had said in a previous post:
Suggesting a path for town to take and then immediately must doing it without getting feedback about the thought really pings me as farming cred.
And this was my response to this argument:
Okay, here's the problem with your logic - this inference is all wrong. I know you haven't played here in quite a while (save for the last game), but it's the meta on this site to actually go ahead and softclaim first if you're suggesting that everyone sorts themselves into categories. Banana is just following that meta. It's NAI.
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@Mikal
Do you think there is no cop? I remember talking to Luna about this before sign ups and he said he had to rebalance for 11 and that he felt like the Trivia could make the game swingy. I guess I’m assuming there is a cop and the other cop is just an extra cop lol. Never considered that was the only way to cop tbh.
I do think there is no Cop. Having an actual, dedicated Cop as well as a winnable 1x Cop role doesn't jive well with the meta here. If someone claimed Cop, I'd consider them to have been CC'ed by the game itself.
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@ILikePie5
I’ll give you a hint. Mislynches
You think Moozer is TMIing because how could he know that those are all mislynches? I can see that.
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@ILikePie5
Do yall see what I’m seeing regarding this post?
Hmm, not quite. Could you explain what it is that you see?
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@Mikal
But as you notated, it’s possible you just has got home. I notated that but said it was less of an issue than earth Anna or inactives. I’m in bed on my phone so can’t find the post. But I know I said this or at least outlined it.
Here's my thing, though: I brought up the fact that the DP was only about four hours old when I showed up. (This is one of the points I mentioned, and you still haven't responded to it yet.) That's only about 6% of the time available in a 72 hour DP like the ones we have here on DART. I don't buy that you didn't know how long they usually are on here. Why were you so focused on labeling me and others as 'inactive' so early? Obviously Austin can accurately be called inactive now, and Moozer was as well before he suddenly showed up. But if you're getting ouchy about players not showing up within the first six hours of a three day DP? I have to think that you might just be trying to push an easy target.
that post is where I locked you in as town. Much the same as whiteflame when I moved him to town. when someone actively starts engaging in the game and seems like they are genuinely scum hunting. That is a town tell. You were exhibiting all that before but that post is where it felt the best.
I guess I can understand where you're coming from here, though it still is a piece of evidence in favor of my theory that you may have been trying to set up a wagon on me. But I know it's not proof by any means. The thing that struck me more was that you hadn't said anything about your read on me progressing when you moved to the four-player list (unless you did and I just missed/forgot about it).
As scum why would he kill? Could he kill and do something stupid yes. But he has a a very niche claim and they could set him up to ride the game out if there is roles that alter investigations.
I guess that's a possibility. You're ignoring the argument Earth and I brought up, however, about how including something like a Lawyer/GF feels like a really odd and unlikely way to balance for a 1x Cop that the town might not even receive at all. Besides, you could make this argument in pretty much any game. "If this person is scum and we don't lynch them, they might appear to be town because of some role that interferes with investigations!" I mean, sure, that's technically true, but it's such a weird thing to bring up, and it doesn't make me want to lynch Earth any more than I did before you brought up that argument. Again, this is the sort of thing that aligns with you trying to set up a wagon on Earth as scum.
Also, I know you say that you can't follow all my links right now, but please actually respond to my post about Banana just following the site meta when you get the chance.
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@Mikal
For me, it all started when I asked Mikal why Austin and Moozer were above me in his pressure list. He didn't really respond to this, which I pointed out. He then claimed that he did, but I pointed out again that he actually didn't, at all. He never responded to that point again. That might be nothing... But it might also be something. Remember how I said earlier that I had a feeling that Mikal might have been subtly trying to start up a wagon on me? Soft-launching a wagon, so to speak. Well, I'm starting to think I may have been right.
You see, Mikal built that priority list, Earth, Banana, Moozer, Austin, and me in that order. But at a certain point down the line, he just stopped mentioning me and focused on his main four. Why? Well, in #505, he says it was my analysis about Banana that improved my position in his eyes. Okay, I kind of liked that at first... But he was already shortening his list to just four people here, before I ever made the post that supposedly made him change his mind about me. Why? I don't think he had said anything about his read on me progressing at all.
There's these other things that bother me as well. Here, I undermine the basis for his very slight scum read on me. He responds to me, but never this point... Here, I undermine the basis for his read on Banana. He never responds to this point... Here, I very pointedly repeat Pie's question about why Mikal said Earth can't be tracked/watched. Again, he responds to me but never really answers the question... What's up with all this?
And you know what I notice? The first four of the five people on Mikal's pressure list are/were either inactive or easy targets in general. It's really starting to feel like Mikal was hoping to push a relatively easy target and is now realizing that it's not going to go so easily for him. That's why he's avoiding my questions.
And this part I KNOW is probably a real stretch, but does anyone else think Mikal v Pie could just be theater? It almost feels like they're intentionally making bad arguments for each other to respond to. But maybe I'm way off there.
Hell, I could be way off in general. But DP1 is the time to make a mountain out of a molehill and see what the view provides. I will fully admit that I could absolutely be barking up the wrong tree here. But I want Mikal to fully, directly respond to all of the points I mentioned above before I unvote him.
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Okay, maybe I'm wrong here. But there's these little things I just can't quite shake. It's small, but DP1 is the time to push people based on small, possibly nothing things. And I know I'm probably not going to have the time to build a case against anyone until Saturday, so I have to put myself out there and do this now.
VTL Mikal
Let me make my post explaining my case
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#505 has partially (but not fully) assuaged my one unstated gripe about Mikal's behavior. I'll explain more later. Right now I'm experiencing this thing I get sometimes where it feels like I have all this physical energy built up inside me and I just need to get it out, but I can't, and it's really frustrating for me because it feels like I can hardly focus on anything, and I feel physically restless with racing thoughts. It's like I'm going through withdrawal from a drug I've never taken or something. I gotta take a break for a bit.
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@ILikePie5
How so? Is an unconfirmable role inherently scummy? Not necessarily. A Cop is technically unconfirmable. Scum can lie in general regardless of the role they take on.
It's not the position I'd expect you to make as town. Claiming something passive, unconfirmable, rare, and highly situational does tilt scummy, especially in response to early game pressure. I think the fact that Earth claimed Survivor is a pretty strong redeeming factor, stronger than Mikal seems to think, but to say that the claim itself isn't convenient is just weird, downright wrong, even.
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@ILikePie5
What’s convenient about it? That it’s unconfirmable? That’s weak. The whole argument about a possible GF or Lawyer is just weak
I agree with the second part, but the first argument feels really weird to see coming from Pie of all people.
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@Mikal
Was #480 your info dump that you were going to go afk for, or is there more?
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@ILikePie5
That’s the prize for getting the trivia right. Town get 1x Cop, scum get 1x Politician
Oh right, duh. I forgot about that.
Earth does raise a good point however, a 1x Cop that town might get during NP1 isn't something I would likely balance with a GF or a Lawyer (even a 1x Lawyer), especially not in a game where both town and mafia are meant to be somewhat underpowered according to the OP (I don't think I've seen anyone else mention this yet).
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@Earth
1x cop isn't something I would necessarily counter with a GF.
Who said anything about a 1x Cop?
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It is not AI in any circumstance and is a reasonably safe claim with very little counter play to catch if he is lying. That is not saying we have to lynch him or he is scum, but that this is a perfect claim to just do nothing the entire game and be safe. Especially if a good scum player came up with it or at least a portion of it.
Okay, but what about that makes you think there's a Lawyer/GF? And more importantly, why did you say that he can't be tracked/watched?
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@Savant
Okay, that's actually a much better argument in favor of Banana being scum than what Mikal has given so far, imo. I'll take that into consideration, though I still lean town on Banana overall.
As for Mikal himself, it's tough for me to read him. I will say he has seemed remarkably consistent so far, which can be tough to fake. However, there's just a little thing bothering me about him... I'll wait for him to make his big post before I reveal what that is, however.
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@ILikePie5
Yall really just want to make it harder for me to catch up
We're really active without your input for once, and now you're complaining about us being too active?
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I have not seen Luna do recent games but I’m working on him with a game for solo leveling and I can tell you with certainty, it’s not an easy split to figure out.
Also, I'll take you at your word for this, but I will say that this would be a deviation from the norm for Luna as a mod.
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@Mikal
Typically i stay away from IIOA.
Feels like I'll always be learning new acronyms. What's this one mean?
Always better to use info as a supplement off of behavior imo
I agree with this wholeheartedly.
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@Earth
Survivor is a popular show. I wouldn't claim a show like that. Its my mod given character. You know, because I'm town.
Yeah, that's more or less what I'm saying...
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@ILikePie5
Are you town reading him for not showing up? It’s NAI, and if he doesn’t show up, he should probably be lynched.
No, being a total no show is NAI as I said. I was just pushing back against Earth's reasoning for scumreading Austin for it, but not Moozer.
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@ILikePie5
I disagree. He has. He literally self voted before. This is honestly more in line with his town play
You're right, he did that recently in The Russian Mafia. Not sure how I overlooked that tbh.
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I really think Banana is town. Her logic here regarding Earth relies a lot on how she views Mikal's push, and not so much on Earth’s own behavior. I don't think this is good logic, but it's really reminiscent of The Russian Mafia, where she used an extremely similar line of logic to defend That2 - Banana thought she was being dogpiled and viewed That2 as likely town as a result, though she didn't really have much to say specifically in defense of That2's behavior individually. Again, Banana's behavior here is really consistent with her town meta. By contrast, in the one game where Banana was scum, she didn't really seem to use this sort of logic. I just don't see the argument for Banana being scum here.
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@Mikal
Suggesting a path for town to take and then immediately must doing it without getting feedback about the thought really pings me as farming cred.
Okay, here's the problem with your logic - this inference is all wrong. I know you haven't played here in quite a while (save for the last game), but it's the meta on this site to actually go ahead and softclaim first if you're suggesting that everyone sorts themselves into categories. Banana is just following that meta. It's NAI.
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@Mikal
Maybe he made up both. God knows what shows are in this game based on this split. I have thoughts based on my character and his does stick out a bit comparatively . But I have not seen others to compare and can validate that thought as the game progresses.
Maybe it's a total fakeclaim. But as I said earlier, Luna's theme splits are usually very straightforward, so straightclaiming your character as scum would generally be a bad idea. Odds are, Earth didn't do that. Survivor is also a really well known series and thus likely to be in the game, so Earth would also be unlikely to risk claiming it unless it was the given fake character. But that doesn't seem likely either, since Earth softed it so early (although I will grant it was a very light soft).
Do you agree or disagree with my logic? Why or why not?
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@iamanabanana
I think Mikal is going after targets he thinks will be easy mislynches and I do not like it. Not one bit.
Do you believe Earth’s claim? If so, why? If not, why not?
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There's also the argument that Earth probably wouldn't claim something so inherently suspicious when he's being so strongly pressured and thrust into the spotlight, though that's a WIFOM argument, so it's a bit weak.
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So, a few things about Earth's claim. It's a really weird one. I've never heard of it before, and it seems extremely limited in its applications. If I understand it correctly, then it only really does anything if Earth is alive at 2v1 LYLO, where it guarantees a town victory as long as Earth himself doesn't get lynched. Okay? That's so incredibly situational, though.
Savant's thoughts also echo mine - why was Earth seemingly so upset about having suspicion on him? Being sussed as a townie means you'll likely survive during the night (as long as there are no town killing roles), which would be good for him. And even if he does get lynched, I wouldn't call it a huge loss for the town.
So that obviously reflects poorly on Earth. But there are a couple other things I noticed. First, he said the role was used somewhat recently. As far as I'm aware, this is not true. I don't remember a role like that EVER being used before as long as I've been playing here, and I've played in every game from BotW onward, except for the previous two (due to being busy) and the ones I've modded. I struggle to see the scum reason for Earth saying "this role was used recently" when it wasn't.
The other redeeming factor: I actually really buy his explanation for why he said that he was thinking about just outing his character earlier. This is significant because Survivor is a really well-known series, so I would have to assume that mafia would be reluctant to soft it. Basically, if Earth is faking his claim, my intuition is that he very likely is using the fake character claim given to him by Luna. But he softed his character (kinda) so early on.
Unvote while I mull this over.
Savant's thoughts also echo mine - why was Earth seemingly so upset about having suspicion on him? Being sussed as a townie means you'll likely survive during the night (as long as there are no town killing roles), which would be good for him. And even if he does get lynched, I wouldn't call it a huge loss for the town.
So that obviously reflects poorly on Earth. But there are a couple other things I noticed. First, he said the role was used somewhat recently. As far as I'm aware, this is not true. I don't remember a role like that EVER being used before as long as I've been playing here, and I've played in every game from BotW onward, except for the previous two (due to being busy) and the ones I've modded. I struggle to see the scum reason for Earth saying "this role was used recently" when it wasn't.
The other redeeming factor: I actually really buy his explanation for why he said that he was thinking about just outing his character earlier. This is significant because Survivor is a really well-known series, so I would have to assume that mafia would be reluctant to soft it. Basically, if Earth is faking his claim, my intuition is that he very likely is using the fake character claim given to him by Luna. But he softed his character (kinda) so early on.
Unvote while I mull this over.
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@Mikal
As you mentioned odds are likely rough but the balance is town probably has very strong roles. If it’s 2 v 9, we are in better shape. If it’s 3v8 mafia is the favorite. Not considering tps.
Looking back at this post, is this a town slip? The OP says that this game is 3v8, no TPs.
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Home for the evening. Earth's claim is... Interesting. Give me a moment to gather my thoughts on it.
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Just a heads up, I'm about to go and spend some time with family, and tomorrow is when the work week starts, so my activity is about to fall significantly. I'll still try to post when I can.
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@Mikal
Are you guys okay with forced pressure on 1/3Thoughts ?
If we're going to pressure someone on that list, I'd rather it be Mharman or Earth. Mharman just got here, though, so let's hear his thoughts first. Then we can decide who to pressure.
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@Mikal
I struggle with Mharm. He is prob the hardest person to read on the site for me. He tends to play so randomly that he is anti town as town.
Really? That's not how I think of Mharman at all. I actually think he's a great town player.
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@Savant
This is a reaction test, isn't it?
If it is, why give it away? Not saying you're scum or anything (I actually think you're solid town), but damn.
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@Savant
Look at these reads from when WF was town. They seem pretty equally noncommittal. Tbh, he's usually noncommittal as scum too. But the parts he does have takes on I tend to agree with here.
See, but even with that first link, WF said that Mharman "looks town to me". None of WF's current reads are that strong. I just feel like he should have a more solid read on at least one player at this point, given that we've had a pretty decent amount of activity from a few players. But I'll concede that if anyone would give such noncommittal reads as town, it would probably be WF.
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@Earth
Moozer does seem to be a bit like me in that are like me. Maybe they are lurking scum, or maybe they struggle to find the motivation to read and post. Austin does not have that luxury. Maybe hes busy, but I think Austin knows he can pop in and say hes busy and hes trying to catch up or whatever.
As Savant and I have already noted, Austin has shown up late at least three times and been town each time. This really isn't unusual for him, even if it's a bit annoying.
Here's a question for you: You already said that you're "debating just outting my show lol." Do you have any particular reason to avoid doing that at this point?
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@Savant
We lynched Austin before for not being active and he was town. Then he showed up late to another game and was town there to.
First one is Luna's Recycled Roles, I remember that. I think you're probably referring to Heroic Heroes with the latter example, but there was also US Presidential Elections where the same thing happened (you weren't in that one). So yeah, I don't think Austin being a no-show so far is in any way A-I.
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@Savant
I like WF's new posts a lot (also Earth's).
Would you mind explaining why? Personally, I completely disagree. I don't like how non-committal WF is being, though I suppose I should clarify that I don't like how he has no strong town or scum reads. I feel like even with Moozer and Austin being absent, there's been enough movement to get a pretty good read on someone. Like, he says that he's just not seeing any reason to believe I'm merely putting on a performance, but I'm still only a slight townread.
As for Earth, I don't like how he considers Moozer being absent to be NAI, but with Austin, it's a scumtell and is going to get him lynched if he keeps it up? Huh???? Maybe he's just a townie with bad logic, but it doesn't help the case for him being town at any rate.
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@whiteflame
Who is your strongest townread right now and why?
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Whiteflame's reads seem very... noncommittal? Lots of null players and no strong reads. I don't particularly like that.
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@Earth
Savant and Casey are hard town for me.
Why am I hard town for you?
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@Savant
In my experience, Earth tends to be more guarded as town and even catty at times (though probably in good fun). I looked at his old games to confirm this. Look at his first two posts as town in Call of Duty mafia here and here. Meanwhile as scum in Recycled Roles, he gave a compliment early on and was fairly polite.
Okay, that's actually a decent point. The other game I can think of where Earth was scum was Ace Attorney. I'll look back at DP1 of that one, but I actually already re-read it not that long ago, and that behavioral analysis does line up with what I remember of him in that game.
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@Mikal
I did. Sorry back on my phone and running to town for a while. But if you scroll up. I outline it pretty I. Depth.
Are you talking about #209? Because you didn't really answer the question there. You do explain pretty thoroughly why you have Earth, Banana and I listed in the order we're listed, but you don't address the inactives (Moozer and Austin) at all. Lurking is scummy, sure, but being a complete and total no-show is NAI imo, and that's the category they fall into. That makes them null reads by default. If you're trying to PoE lynch, then it makes sense to try and push players you don't have a solid read on otherwise, but that's not the sort of reasoning you're using here. It's also still unclear to me why you have them above me in your priority list.
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