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@Mikal
According to mafiascum, the default version only skips day phases regardless of how they die. Not really fair to town, so it often just applies to lynches. I guess your version probably isn't that rare.
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@Mikal
So you're some weird variation then, right? Because usually beloved princess only skips a day phase.
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@Mikal
I see. So you could in theory gamble again tonight? I mean, I'd recommend against it, but just so I understand.
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@Mikal
double jeopardy
So this means you now permanently have a role cop? Or you only had it 1x and now you're gonna use the tracker? Why not use both the tracker and the role cop last night?
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@Mikal
Are you saying, their team will still have it even if he dies?
Mafia submitted as a group I think. And even if they didn't, it could be Earth's partner that got it.
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@Mikal
Oh you copped him, thought you tracked him.
Wait so you are both the beloved princess and a rolecop/tracker?
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@Mikal
Wait did you actually confirm Moozer? Bcause it's possible Moozer was scum and didn't visit anyone. Not saying that's likely, just technically possible.
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@Mikal
if he is scum, he has the vote thing
Well if he's scum, scum have the vote thing, so even if we lynch him they'll still have it. But it does hedge our bets.
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Here's the issue even with the sensor:
If I use it on Earth and he's innocent, then we lynch Mharman while using the sensor to check banana. If Earth is guilty, we lynch him while using the sensor to check Mharman.
Except in the case that Earth is innocent, that doesn't actually do anything, we could have just lynched Earth. If Earth is guilty, we could have checked Mharman anyway and if Mharman was innocent we would still have two lynches remaining, not just one. So unless everyone really needs me to confirm myself, I think using my role is a net loss for town.
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@Mharman
I prefer Earth but sure go ahead
I'm not using my role, it takes away a lynch.
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Actually, maybe everyone should do ten. That makes it basically impossible for scum to guess and also gives us some leeway if they can do better than random chance.
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Also has everyone come up with like five challenges to do in a random order so scum can't guess your hidden agenda?
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@Earth
@Mharman
@Mikal
@AustinL0926
@iamanabanana
Are all of you on board with the above?
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@Earth
Have you considered town winning the trivia sensor, Savant
That helps us regardless. I think the move is to eliminate you with Austin, Moozer, banana, and you hammer yourself. That tells us if banana is scum.
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@Earth
Please use that on someone like Mharman or something like that?
So I use it on Mharman, he flips guilty, we lynch him. Then it's down to the final 4, and we don't know whether to lynch you or banana.
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@Mikal
it would make more sense to use it on earth
So I use it on Earth, Earth flips guilty, we lynch him. Then we're in final 4 and we don't know whether to lynch Mharman or banana.
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My role doesn't end the dp but I really don't see a reason to use it.
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@Mikal
Does the dp end ?
Pretty sure it continues but I just asked.
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Yeah and we still buy ourselves more time by lynching Earth...I think Earth, Mharman, banana is the optimal order and maybe we switch it up if unexpected scum reveals themselves.
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@Mikal
Wait I think we might still have to lynch Earth today. Because if we lynch Mharman and he's scum, then we have the same question of "Earth or banana?" tomorrow. So lynching Mharman earlier doesn't actually give us any leeway.
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Earth's behavior is just very towny. I don't think I've ever seen scum offer to sacrifice themselves.
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Yeah if I used it today to catch Mharman, then it would be down to final 4 tomorrow, and we still wouldn't know if Earth is the second scum.
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I need to figure out the math here because it might just be a waste.
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@Mikal
I think it’s not good to use here. Especially because of the politician if math is right. I think that just auto loses the game is earth is scum.
It wouldn't auto lose today because it would still take 4 votes to lynch. But it would mean we get one less lynch total. Wait a min...might be able to solve this. Maybe I use my role to check Mharman, and if he's innocent then we lynch Earth. If he's guilty, we lynch him.
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@Mharman
Can you use your role at any point in the game, or are you restricted by phase?Also do you have control over whose PM is outed? If yes, what happens if you select scum?
If I select scum, scum gets outed obv. Pretty sure I can use it any time, but if I use it at LYLO town loses automatically. It's only really useful at MYLO.
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@Mikal
I’m not even considering savant as town.
You mean scum?
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@Mikal
The question is do we lynch Earth today in case scum have the politician? And sure, that hedges our bets a little. But then we have exactly 1 chance to catch that second scum. Pretty sure it's banana, but I'm more sure about Mharman, so maybe it's better to lynch Mharman now.
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I mean we could lynch Earth and then Mharman, but then we need to be 100% sure about that second scum because we're instantly at LYLO. Also, idk if there will be another challenge tomorrow that scum ends up winning, and then they auto win MYLO or something even without the politician. Part of me wants to just take the 60%+ odds of killing one scum today.
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Earth
- Town Lean (61%)
- Playing as Town: CoDdp1, CoDdp2, CoDdp3
- Playing as Scum: RRV2dp1, RRV2dp2, RRV2dp3
- #35 - TL - For an infrequent poster, drawing attention early without a need comes across as more instinctive to town than to scum.
- #117 - TL - I don’t think scum Earth would offer to out his show without prompting.
- #157 - TL - Pro-town imo to advocate this strategy, even offering a way to make it more feasible.
- #235, #239, #240 - T - So much agreement here (except on inactives), and I’ll give Earth more credit for this than someone like WF (who is very towny as scum). If anything, I might suspect that Earth is copying my reads, but overall his reasoning is close to what I would say.
- #350 - SL - Post justification makes sense, and if it’s fake Survivor probably used up the mafia fake claim, but it’s an easy role to fake claim and non confirmable. Also, the show started in 2000, not before. Not in town’s interest to claim here since it just narrows down power roles and loses all the role’s utility, but could be an attempt to get pressure off by claiming early, while the soldier should want suspicion on them to avoid the NK.
- #353, #359 - SL - Explanation seems iffy to me. There’s a good chance that Earth wanted to keep his claim options open earlier by saying after 2000 and then looked up roles in recent games.
- #603 - TL - The details in Earth’s justification about the Survivor show feel like they could actually be from a role PM (“physical and mental trials to the very end…”) though it’s probably a rephrase.
- #698 - TL - Defending another player for similar reasons he’s used to defend himself makes his posting seem more genuine.
- #9 - T - I don’t think scum would risk clearing a town player like this, and Moozer has been confirmed by Mikal so they can’t be scum buddies.
iamanabanana
- Scum Lean (52%)
- Playing as Town: JFdp1, JFdp2, JFdp3
- Playing as Scum: BBdp1, BBdp2
- #7 - TL - Posting early draws attention, and I don’t think scum would be inclined to do so without a joke or something to justify the post, seem natural, etc.
- #33, #41 - T - I don’t see scum Banana coming out and giving info about her role without being asked. She’s played a few games, so it’s possible for this to be a tactic, but I think scum wouldn’t play this risky.
- #198 - TL - I like how banana sticks to her guns here, and the answer seems focused on town perspective rather than just being defensive.
- #199 - TL - Putting pressure on inactives like this is a town concern, and her response before is long and noticeable enough that just voting for Moozer wouldn’t be done to divert attention. If banana were scum under pressure, I think she would focus on either putting pressure on Moozer or giving a sufficient defense (not both).
- #299 - SL - I don’t love that banana’s only post in a while is a defensive one, repeating a point they already made.
- #378 - TL - Defending Earth like this is townie when he could be a possible lynch today.
- #399, #417, #421 - SL - A bit OMGUSy and overly defensive, and the defense of Earth seems a bit opportunistic as a way to throw suspicion toward Mikal. She’s been focused on defense as scum before here and here, though I couldn’t really find a similar situation to compare that behavior to in her town game. (Although she seemed a bit more open and less accusatory in general as town.)
- #606 - TL - A lot of effort, I think it’s unlikely banana goes this far under pressure if she’s scum.
- #677, #678, #682 - TL - The continued pushing and amount of effort make the read on Mikal feels genuine, especially when banana isn’t the top lynch today.
- #694 - SL - The defensiveness is getting to the point of being excessive and more than I’d expect a town member to actually feel. And denying that it is defensiveness doesn’t really help.
- #16, #34, #40, #41 - SL - The logic here is bad since Earth wasn’t confirmed yesterday (still isn’t, though he’s towny today). Likely an attempt to widen the PoE pool since scum are losing.
- #143, #183 - SL - Some similarities to Casey’s claim, and Casey was just janitored. Though they do make a point that there are other famous hosts.
- #299 - TL - Townie not to expand PoE here, especially when one scum has already been lynched and banana is on the chopping block.
- #291 - TL - Doubling down on this by caring about a detail like the order of claims convinces me this might be sincere.
- #174 - T - WF confirmed that banana visited me. Since scum have a janitor and nothing happened to me last night, and since banana said she visited me and her reasoning is consistent with her scum read, this means banana is very likely town.
Mharman
- Scum Lean (37.5%)
- Playing as Town: JFdp1, JFdp2, JFdp3
- Playing as Scum: CoDdp1, CoDdp2, CoDdp3
- #60, #61 - TL - Strategizing that doesn’t give off any red flags. There’s a question posed to Pie that could be manipulative but seems more like an attempt to get a read, and I like that. Don’t know that scum would have thought to do that.
- #105 - T - The read on Mikal seems genuine. I have a hard time seeing scum suspect someone and then give a reason why they actually might not be suspicious with zero pushback.
- #143, #144, #145 - TL - More questions that seem like they’re coming from a towny perspective, I don’t think scum Mharman would pretend not to know if scum have questions just to get town read.
- #291, #301, #310 - TL - If Mharman is scum here, then the strategy is probably to pursue a WyIted lynch or Pie lynch by throwing out seeds. Or allow Earth to be lynched by not defending him. But he defends inactives decently and defends the town core, so his thoughts seem more likely from genuine town trying to catch up and get thoughts out.
- #318 - TL - Mharman going back and forth on WF seems genuine. Idk if scum would be willing to seem inconsistent like this.
- #321 - SL - This post is pretty verbose, and rambling a bit is often a scum tell. Also could be planting potential seeds for a lynch without committing.
- #291, #799, #831, #886 - TL - Scum reads WyIted early on, might have been trying to avoid a hammer on him but still worth a slight town read
- #885 - SL - Waiting to hammer on scum while claiming he might is suspicious. And since WyIted wanted to post notes, it’s possible they decided that notes from Mharman would look less suspect.
- #911, #919 - SL - Taking credit like this and retroactively adding a town read seems very opportunistic and not really honest since the credit is split among a lot of people, including the lynch train that Mharman wasn’t even on.
- #137 - SL - Misremembering role name and claiming a role that is typically scum aligned.
- #184, #193, #246, #251 - SL - Mharman’s anger here is not really logical and I only see it coming from scum on the verge of losing, given how well the town is doing.
- #342, #344 - TL - Mharman not understanding this seems like a town tell, though it’s possible he’s faking it.
- #477 - TL - Some decent points here, mitigates some of my concerns.
- #557, #563, #623 - SL - Focusing entirely on the counterclaim here when Moozer and Austin have confirmable roles seems a bit opportunistic.
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Reads List 7.0
Each player is assigned an estimated probability of being town based on how towny or scummy they are. The average probability of being town is 66%, since there are 4 town players left besides me and 2 scum players left.
Moozer325
- Town (98.5%)
- Playing as Town: JFdp1, JFdp2, JFdp3
- Playing as Scum: IPdp1, IPdp2, IPdp3
- #306, #331 - TL - Seems genuine and open for the most part, though in this position I think scum has no choice but to claim, so only a slight town read.
- #438 - TL - I like these reads, and confident/active players often seem townie, so I buy that read as genuine (particularly with the comparison to last game).
- #530, #534, #543, #545 - T - If Moozer is lying here, it’s a lot of lies packed very densely, and I don’t think scum Moozer would fake that level of analysis.
- #533 - T - Offering to claim right after a decent analysis, hard to fake all of that at once. Seems sincere.
- #9 - T - Earth claims he checked Moozer and confirmed his innocence.
- #186 - SL - Could be opportunistic given the cc, but with the phrasing and how they didn’t bother to check the details, I also don’t really see this lie as a great scum gambit.
- #629 - TL - Role confirmed.
- #7 - T - Confirmed by a second player.
AustinL0926
- Town (84.5%)
- Playing as Town: SKdp1, SKdp2, Castledp1
- Playing as Scum: Diarydp1, Diarydp2, Diarydp3
- #583, #599 - T - Very unlikely this role claim is fake or that role belongs to scum. However, if Austin is scum, it’s possible a scum partner came up with this fake role for him, and it is possible it’s the fake scum role claim, since the show doesn’t fit too well. I also think scum would claim everything they want to claim at once, while town would throw out info desperately in Austin’s position.
- #588, #590, #592, #594 - TL - Feels like this is coming from someone genuinely catching up without being fed any information from scum. Town reading as scum here would be pretty bold, though I could see other scum recommending this to build trust.
- #631, #632, #633 - T - Thoughts seem more likely to occur to town, and I agree with the point about Mikal in particular.
- #728, #729, #730 - T - I don’t think scum Austin would analyze posts in this level of detail, effort seems towny.
- #43 - TL - Very pro town to bring this up.
- #79 - TL - I don’t think scum Austin would bother to risk being cc’d later.
- #789 - TL - Role was confirmed.
Mikal
- Town Lean (66.5%)
- Playing as Town: JFdp1, Riddledp1, Riddledp2
- Playing as Scum: Ozarkdp1, Ozarkdp2, Ozarkdp3
- #16 - TL - An early post where the vote seems more substantive than for “joke” reasons, even if the goal is just to get someone’s attention, it’s not presented alongside a quip.
- #18, #25, #27 - TL - Ticking off another player like this would be an odd move coming from scum. Really I only see it biasing people against Mikal, hence I’m inclined to town read it. WIFOM, I know, but I just don’t see Mikal banking on being town read for being annoying.
- #34, #57, #137 - TL - I like that Mikal is taking the lead, and the explanation of the even-odd strat seems largely towny.
- #36, #38 - TL - Confronting another player out the gate is good, and Mikal is asking something I was curious about as well. This is pro-town at the very least. Also Mikal tends to be more confrontational as town (here, here, here, here) and more laid-back as scum (here, here, here)
- #165 - TL - This kind of indecision and uncertainty about another player comes from town more often than from scum.
- #209 - TL - Sticks to his guns without planting additional seeds for a push.
- #275 - TL - As I mentioned before, aggression like this is a town tell for Mikal, and I think pushing WF for specifics is warranted.
- #277, #281, #288, #289, #290 - TL - Mikal throws out a lot of specifics here that I think scum would have a hard time improvising while remaining genuine. And his attack on Earth is consistent, even if I think it’s mostly unsupported.
- #308, #309, #311, #315, #316 - TL - Very slight town read here. Strategy seems solid with no red flags, but I’ve seen this kind of thing before from Mikal, so it doesn’t move the needle that much.
- #443, #454 - TL - Similar to how I’ve spoken to and about people I suspect when I’m town, perhaps even more obviously sincere than that, and I have a hard time seeing scum fake this.
- #505, #507, #508 - TL - Towny analysis, emotions that seem sincere from a town perspective. The shift on Pie seems sincere to me.
- #537, #540, #549, #555 - T - Very towny annoyance and defense that makes a lot of sense to me. These aren’t super easy mislynches, but Mikal seems to understand how inactives could be perceived that way.
- #570 - SL - Giving up role info to reduce pressure seems more scummy than towny (and the information is barely useful). I mean I could see it as either alignment, but it’s not like revealing this really helps town. Plus, trying to use this to attack Earth feels opportunistic.
- #615 - TL - I agree with Austin that this is a towny consideration from Mikal.
- #666 - TL - Agree with Casey that this is a pro town concern, but the town lean comes more from the way it is phrased, imagining what could go wrong from town POV
- #700, #701 - TL - Attacking banana by defending Moozer and criticizing that read feels pretty towny.
- #816 - T - Asked for a claim from WyIted, given how bad WyIted’s claim was I doubt this is a scum partner.
- #847 - SL - Voting for Earth instead of WyIted is suspicious.
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@Mikal
Here's the deal: Austin, Moozer, and banana all have confirmable roles other than banana. So there's at least 1 scum among you, me, Mharman, and Earth. I know I'm town, and I think most people town read me. I'm pretty sure you're town too. That leaves Mharman and Earth, and I town read earth over Mharman for a number of reasons. About to do another long post, but I think we have good odds if we lynch Mharman. Lynching Earth might hedge our bets in theory, but it doesn't really get us closer to catching scum, and scum could have a secret role that screws us over tonight.
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@Earth
why don't I just offer myself as the mislynch
Tbh I would wait for Mikal to explain everything before we go that route. I also town read you right now.
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CYR
Bo Burnham
Shocking TV moments
You pick the theme
Villainous Villains
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Be havin' dreams that I'ma gangster
A place where death doesn't reside, just thugs who collide
For your soul, the exec let you hold an advance
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@Mikal
Can you pick?
Yeah I can, but it loses us an entire lynch, so I feel like it would be a waste unless I was about to be lynched.
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New Orleans Is Sinking
Bad Reputation
The Blasters
Grateful Dead
The Payolas
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@Mikal
I'm Deal or No Deal. Because the game requires a lot of sacrifice, I'm the "lamb." I can kill myself at any point but in doing so reveal the full role PM of another player.
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