Total posts: 4,276
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@Earth
Mafia would have left me as a mis lynch target anyway.
So you wouldn't die at night? That's half the battle. You want to be in PoE but manage not to be the lynch.
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@Earth
tbh if I am the last surviving town, then town played poorly
That's the entire point of the soldier!!! To save the town if we can't win otherwise.
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@WyIted
Why the fuck are we even bothering with the DP if we can't at least lock in inactives. You guys are ridiculous
Because Earth had plenty of time to be active, plus we can analyze behavior.
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@Earth
if I am the last surviving town
If you were the survivor, you should have been happy to have suspicion on you as it reduced the odds you would be a night kill. You didn't have to claim this early to avoid the lynch.
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@Earth
wasn't it in a recent game?
If you remember this, that makes it even more likely you would fake claim it.
I don't remember the name
Unnecessary to add unless you are trying to hide that you looked up roles in recent games.
Honestly the claim and the posts after it seem very scummy to me.
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@Earth
And what do you mean Survivor is obscure? It has like 48 seasons.
Soldier is an obscure role, and claiming it completely defeats the role's utility.
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@Mharman
Your point is pedantic and irrelevant
How is it irrelevant if Earth said something about his role that was false?
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@Earth
I debated just outting my character. I felt like if I said "2000", it would have been as good as a hard claim.
Why debate outing your character when you had already decided not to say your show started in 2000? Also, there were other ways of soft claiming that wouldn't involve giving false information about your role. You could have said the decade it started, for example.
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@Earth
Survivor started in 2000. Earlier, you said your show started after 2000.
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@Mikal
Doing that late late in the dp advantages mafia and we also have less time to evaluate if we want to go through with the lynch
Fair I guess, but I just don't want to force a claim when Moozer has only posted twice. What if they make a dozen really towny posts and then we wasted getting a claim? They already said they are probably confirmable, which is as much information as I think we can safely reveal at the moment.
I'd lean toward getting a claim at the 48 hour mark. Gives us some time to reflect on it, but we shouldn't be jumping the gun before then.
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@Moozer325
Don't role claim yet. We still have a lot of time in d1, and it's best to claim sparingly.
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@Mikal
What are your thoughts on balance? I really don't want to help scum narrow down power roles, and I think there are probably a good number to compensate for the initial numbers disadvantage.
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@Earth
Just don't claim your role. As I said before, I think town has better roles for balance purposes.
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@whiteflame
I'm pretty surprised we had so much activity this early as well, all happened within the first 24 hours.
Yeah, I think town is off to a good start.
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@Lunatic
@whiteflame
@Mikal
@Casey_Risk
Well, less than 24 hours left in the day phase and nothing from Austin or Moozer. Not excited to lynch inactives even if that's where I'm leaning, so maybe we have other players sub in for them and ask to extend the day phase. Curious to see how others want to handle this.
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Let's suppose that as part of an experiment, 100 genetically similar people are offered a choice: accept a red hat or accept a blue hat. They may, statistically, have a preference toward one color or the other. Now, if you only saw one of these people, and you saw that they accepted a red hat, would you assume that red hats or blue hats were more commonly chosen among the other 99? It's only one data point, but gun to your head, you would probably assume that among the other 99, red hats were more popular.
Here's where it gets weird. What if you were one of the 100, and you chose the red hat? Would you make the same assumption? I argue you probably could. Even if you chose it for some obscure reason, knowing that reason led you to choose the red hat means that others might pick it for the same reason. But if you picked the blue hat, then it would similarly seem more likely that blue hats were probably more likely overall.
Now, knowing this, what if you wanted to influence what hats the others picked? If you pick the red hat, then you can logically conclude that red hats are more likely to be popular. If you pick the blue hat, then you can logically conclude that blue hats are more likely to be popular. Based on this choice, you can change the expected outcome of events you don't participate in. Suppose everyone read this thought experiment before participating. If you pick the red hat to influence the group, it increases the expected likelihood that the majority picked the red hat to influence the group.
I suspect that a possible answer to this paradox is that picking the hat doesn't give you any new information: even before you pick it, you could guess your own thought process and then make your best guess as to what the other 99 pick. Then that would be the most accurate guess you could make regardless of what color you choose. I don't know if this answer would hold up empirically, but it's the only solution that makes sense to me.
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@Mikal
Reaction test for who responded more than him and I think it just town locked you for me
Lol I was almost gonna be catty and say "well I reacted, didn't I?" but I figured it was for Earth.
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@Casey_Risk
If it is, why give it away? Not saying you're scum or anything (I actually think you're solid town), but damn.
I don't think these reaction tests are particularly useful. In retrospect, I probably should have just let it play out, but I did want to know if Earth had really been killed.
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@Mikal
The more earth posts the more I think he’s scum. It’s like after pressure he is trying to have some type of reads just to satisfy the push.I think I’m sold.LunaDay Vig Earth - Confirm
This is a reaction test, isn't it?
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@Casey_Risk
WF said that Mharman "looks town to me"
I don't see it as a big enough difference to be a scum tell, but fair enough in that it is a difference.
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@Mikal
Would say he moved from null ish to validating some thoughts I had.
That's interesting, because I felt like I disagreed a lot with you but agreed with a lot of WF's reads.
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@Casey_Risk
Look at these reads from when WF was town. They seem pretty equally noncommittal. Tbh, he's usually noncommittal as scum too. But the parts he does have takes on I tend to agree with here.
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@Casey_Risk
he says that he's just not seeing any reason to believe I'm merely putting on a performance, but I'm still only a slight townread.
I'll have to check his town and scum play, but I would attribute this to still being early in day 1 with very few claims. In this environment we usually get at least a few upfront, so he could be used to working with that.
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@Earth
@Casey_Risk
Austin and Moozer haven't posted yet, NAI for Moozer. I get Austin might be busy, but I definitely think we should get input from him. I'm obviously not going to suggest we lynch myself, so maybe if Austin will be the lynch if he continues as he is.
I actually don't see this thought process as likely from a scum perspective, and there might be something behind it, but I do think it's very much incorrect. (Guess I didn't agree with Earth on everything.) We lynched Austin before for not being active and he was town. Then he showed up late to another game and was town there to. So my experience is the opposite of yours.
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@Casey_Risk
I like WF's new posts a lot (also Earth's).Would you mind explaining why? Personally, I completely disagree.
The huge post explains my thought process (see newer bullets). I've noticed your reads differ a bit from mine, but in a towny way if that makes sense? Anyway, I think it's good that we have a long day phase to talk this through.
As for Earth, I don't like how he considers Moozer being absent to be NAI, but with Austin, it's a scumtell and is going to get him lynched if he keeps it up?
Will take another look at that, wasn't really what caught my attention.
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So many posts seemed towny that a lot of probabilities were shifted downward to make the averages work. Basically, I assume that I have some tendency toward town reading and that active posters are disproportionately town and adjust for that.
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Reads List 2.0
Each player is assigned an estimated probability of being town based on how towny or scummy they are. The average probability of being town is 70%, since there are 7 town players besides me and 3 scum players.
Casey_Risk
- Town Lean (77.5%)
- Playing as Town: SKdp1, SKdp2, SKdp3
- Playing as Scum: Gunplaydp1, Gunplaydp2, Gunplaydp3
- #78 - TL - I don’t think scum Casey would agree with no lynch either, but this is a towny concern to bring up.
- #80, #86, #91 - TL - I agree with the read on banana, and I think defending other players like this for pretty justifiable reasons is pro-town. Some of these things not being super AI is why my reads aren’t super strong at the moment, but I thought it was worth taking everything into account. I think generously town reading players is an unlikely scum play, and it indicates that Casey is not worried about POE getting too small around them.
- #81 - TL - Not super indicative, but I think enthusiasm for sharing role information is generally a good sign.
- #98, #102, #129, #147 - TL - Feels like genuine scum hunting, inquiry, and theme analysis.
- #155, #190 - SL - The first post seemed like it could be genuine, and I’ve seen townies with convictions like this. However, in the second post, it’s odd that Casey quoted Mikal without noting that Luna said the tactic didn’t go against the rules. Might indicate that Casey objected for the purpose of hindering town.
- #129, #193, #200, #210 - TL - Concise and reasonable. Casey stuck more to the details of other people’s posts in their town game (Serial Killers) here and here for example, but tended to ramble and be more verbose in their scum game here and here for example. Also drawing more attention to themselves than they need to just to ask questions, which I don’t think scum would expect to be town read for.
- #205 - TL - Town reading another player they don’t have to, but mostly with substantive info. Could have been more concise in response to my previous post to be more town read but wasn’t. (And despite having a paragraph it doesn’t feel like rambling.) Fixation on a small detail that town might genuinely be bugged by but that scum would probably avoid going down for fear of looking like they’re trying to invent an issue.
- #218, #227, #228 - TL - More solid, pro-town analysis that seems like noticeable effort to identify scum and town
Mikal
- Town Lean (75.5%)
- Playing as Town: JFdp1, Riddledp1, Riddledp2
- Playing as Scum: Ozarkdp1, Ozarkdp2, Ozarkdp3
- #16 - TL - An early post where the vote seems more substantive than for “joke” reasons, even if the goal is just to get someone’s attention, it’s not presented alongside a quip.
- #18, #25, #27 - TL - Ticking off another player like this would be an odd move coming from scum. Really I only see it biasing people against Mikal, hence I’m inclined to town read it. WIFOM, I know, but I just don’t see Mikal banking on being town read for being annoying.
- #34, #57, #137 - TL - I like that Mikal is taking the lead, and the explanation of the even-odd strat seems largely towny.
- #36, #38 - TL - Confronting another player out the gate is good, and Mikal is asking something I was curious about as well. This is pro-town at the very least. Also Mikal tends to be more confrontational as town (here, here, here, here) and more laid-back as scum (here, here, here)
- #165 - TL - This kind of indecision and uncertainty about another player comes from town more often than from scum.
- #209 - TL - Sticks to his guns without planting additional seeds for a push.
iamabanana
- Town Lean (72.5%)
- Playing as Town: JFdp1, JFdp2, JFdp3
- Playing as Scum: BBdp1, BBdp2
- #7 - TL - Posting early draws attention, and I don’t think scum would be inclined to do so without a joke or something to justify the post, seem natural, etc.
- #33, #41 - T - I don’t see scum Banana coming out and giving info about her role without being asked. She’s played a few games, so it’s possible for this to be a tactic, but I think scum wouldn’t play this risky.
- #198 - LT - I like how banana sticks to her guns here, and the answer seems focused on town perspective rather than just being defensive.
- #199 - LT - Putting pressure on inactives like this is a town concern, and her response before is long and noticeable enough that just voting for Moozer wouldn’t be done to divert attention. If banana were scum under pressure, I think she would focus on either putting pressure on Moozer or giving a sufficient defense (not both).
Earth
- Town Lean (72.5%)
- Playing as Town: CoDdp1, CoDdp2, CoDdp3
- Playing as Scum: RRV2dp1, RRV2dp2, RRV2dp3
- #35 - TL - For an infrequent poster, drawing attention early without a need comes across as more instinctive to town than to scum.
- #117 - TL - I don’t think scum Earth would offer to out his show without prompting.
- #157 - TL - Pro-town imo to advocate this strategy, even offering a way to make it more feasible.
- #235, #239, #240 - T - So much agreement here, and I’ll give Earth more credit for this than someone like WF (who is very towny as scum). If anything, I might suspect that Earth is copying my reads, but overall his reasoning is close to what I would say.
Mharman
- Town Lean (72%)
- Playing as Town: JFdp1, JFdp2, JFdp3
- Playing as Scum: CoDdp1, CoDdp2, CoDdp3
- #60, #61 - TL - Strategizing that doesn’t give off any red flags. There’s a question posed to Pie that could be manipulative but seems more like an attempt to get a read, and I like that. Don’t know that scum would have thought to do that.
- #105 - T - The read on Mikal seems genuine. I have a hard time seeing scum suspect someone and then give a reason why they actually might not be suspicious with zero pushback.
- #143, #144, #145 - TL - More questions that seem like they’re coming from a towny perspective, I don’t think scum Mharman would pretend not to know if scum have questions just to get town read.
iLikePie5
- Null (70%)
- Playing as Town: JFdp1, JFdp2, TRdp1
- Playing as Scum: TVdp1, TVdp2
- #48, #49, #51 - TL - I like that Pie’s first posts are immediately about the game, no attempts to gain cred just through agreeableness.
- #55, #119, #120 - NAI - After reading Casey’s post, I agree that this probably isn’t a town slip. Pie’s explanation is fine. I could see these posts coming from either alignment
- #121, #122, #124, #126, #127 - SL - Pie is active as usual, which isn’t particularly AI, but his posts seem kind of noncommittal, mostly agreeing or giving meta information about players. Kind of the bare minimum to appear active.
- #125 - TL - I like that Pie is challenging a player, somewhat mitigates with my concerns about the other posts being noncommittal
- #136, #138 - TL - Towny concerns, and it somewhat convinces me the earlier meta analysis was genuinely aimed toward helping town
- #141, #142 - TL - Retracting an accusation like that indicates to me it was probably sincere. Could be faked or maybe forced by the situation, but I don’t think scum Pie would back down out of fear or plan to challenge and then back down.
Wylted
- Scum Lean (66%)
- Playing as Town: JFdp1, JFdp2, CoDdp1
- Playing as Scum: Castledp1
- #3 - SL - I know it’s WIFOM, but if this post is alignment indicative (not convinced it is), I think the intent is to appear unafraid of gaining attention and hence towny, especially since WyIted is usually given a pass for such posts. Which in turn makes it a strategic move for scum.
- #45 - SL - I don’t love that WyIted immediately qualifies his claim with a fun fact about reality shows. If he gave that information separately, it would be fine, but I think that when people are being deceptive or discussing information they don’t want revealed, they have a tendency to immediately answer the question and then change the subject.
- #77 - TL - The concern here seems towny, since we are only a few pages in.
- #93, #95, #97, #103, #108 - TL - This actually mitigates some of my previous concerns, it comes across as WyIted genuinely being interested in theme analysis and the topic in general.
whiteflame
- Scum Lean (65%)
- Playing as Town: CoDdp1, CoDdp2, CoDdp3
- Playing as Scum: JFdp1, JFdp2, JFdp3
- #16 - SL - With WF it’s always difficult to tell, but starting the game with something unrelated to this particular game seems more aimed at gaining town cred through camaraderie.
- #17, #21, #23 - SL - I understand WF’s frustration here, I really do, but their reasons for refusing Mikal aren’t framed from a game strategy perspective. The case could be made that Mikal’s strategy does work for reading WF, and WF only challenges it out of personal distaste. Casey is probably right that this isn’t that significant, so the lean is very slight.
- #28 - SL - After being pressured, I think this post could be made to change the subject, which WF can get away with because of Mikal’s brash demeanor, and the formalities beside the vote could be meant to ensure the vote isn’t met with hostility. I think town would be more inclined to pressure other players, while scum would be more inclined to befriend them
- #32 - TL - WF complimenting Mikal’s strategy like this actually strikes me as more towny than scummy. It’s WF, and he could easily be thinking that giving credence to Mikal here is the towny move; however, I think there were alternative responses that could have been more strategic for scum and planted bigger seeds for suspecting Mikal
- #75 - TL - The frustration seems towny, and it indicates to me that the previous frustration was likely genuine as well, not solely to avoid pressure.
- #106 - SL - Feels a bit like WF is planting seeds for suspicion on Mikal without outright saying it or giving reads. Also when responding to a call for engagement, this post seems like it throws suspicion toward the most convenient player rather than analyzing the game as a whole and really scum hunting.
- #109, #115 - SL - I think a town player would be more likely to start making progress from what they have. Waiting for claims and for inactives to post (not even the first to note inactive players) could be a convenient way to test the waters.
- #234 - LT - I’m seeing a good amount of effort here put into explaining the “why” behind his reads, and all of it seems fairly logical from a town perspective. I agree with him here more than I disagree with him, and I don’t see any opportunistic scum reads or possibly partnered town reads sticking out.
- #241 - LT - Agree on Casey being a top town read. See where WF is coming from on Mikal’s behavior, and if WF is town, then it makes sense for there to be no clear scum reads atm. Maybe I’m giving too much credit based off of agreement, and I do think scum WF would acknowledge strong town reads, but the lack of apparent agenda here is a green flag.
AustinL0926
Moozer325
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Apologies, long post incoming. My reads have basically doubled in length, so I think now is a good time to post them again. Don't feel the need to read it all tonight.
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@Earth
@whiteflame
@Casey_Risk
I like WF's new posts a lot (also Earth's). Just by process of elimination I'd probably suspect at least one scum between Austin and Moozer. Ofc that depends on how reliable my fidgeting around with percentages has been, but I agree with WF that there aren't many red flags atm.
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@Earth
My first thought was the probability shit is probably bullshit
It's little more than a rough estimate at this point, but I'm hoping that after I play enough games I can determine whether I tend to overestimate or underestimate at certain probabilities and get better.
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@Casey_Risk
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@Cerulean
Is the spectator chat visible now? I never found the specific channel.
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@Casey_Risk
Okay, now #215 does make me raise my eyebrows. I don't think I've ever seen Earth act this genuinely offended before as town.
In my experience, Earth tends to be more guarded as town and even catty at times (though probably in good fun). I looked at his old games to confirm this. Look at his first two posts as town in Call of Duty mafia here and here. Meanwhile as scum in Recycled Roles, he gave a compliment early on and was fairly polite.
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@Earth
@Mikal
@Casey_Risk
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@Casey_Risk
I know you weren't addressing me, but I want to give some feedback as well, especially since you put so much effort in. I don't think your first two bullet points are actually alignment indicative imo. I feel like WF would probably act like that as either alignment, especially the first point. Your other points that contribute to your scum lean are a little bit better, but I don't find the case as a whole to be very persuasive yet.
Fair, I think. I'm trying to categorize every post I can into either scum or town indicative, even if only by a very slight amount. In theory, with enough posts, a consistent trend toward even slight towny or scummy behavior would be telling. Biggest thing is that whiteflame usually has some pretty towny posts or takes more initiative, and I'm not seeing as much of that in this game. I also feel like I shouldn't have the strongest read on a player like WF this early.
Why the separation between gut reads and players who just seem off? Those are the same in my mind. It kind of feels like maybe he's trying to subtly set up a wagon on me without being obvious about it?
If this is a mistake, I don't see it as necessarily a scummy one, nor specifically focused on you since he mentioned two other players and is voting Earth rn.
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@Lunatic
Also, we have until the end of this day phase to answer?
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@Earth
@Mikal
@Casey_Risk
Not going to post all my reads again just yet, but I'll give an example of why Casey is my top town read right now.
#129, #193, #200 - TL - Concise and reasonable. Casey stuck more to the details of other people’s posts in their town game (Serial Killers) here and here for example, but tended to ramble and be more verbose in their scum game here and here for example.
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@Casey_Risk
It is? It kinda feels like a cheap way to out scum largely through luck rather than actual deduction. But okay then.
Luna said it was fine, if it means anything. I figured he was the neutral source to go to.
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@Lunatic
If mafia win, they will receive a 1x politician vote.
What's a politician vote?
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Though tbf I've seen Austin show up late and then start posting up a storm. Not sure we'll need a claim from him.
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@Mikal
🔴 Pressure
- Earth
- Banana
- Austin
- Moozer
- Casey
Shouldn't we pressure the people who haven't posted at all (Austin/Moozer) before we pressure Earth?
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@Mikal
Your post style, linking and pointing to specific issues, reminds me of the meta on MU or MS.
Analyzing every single post isn't how most people played on MU. It's how I wish I'd played after the match was over. Though DART moving slower does make it a bit easier.
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@Lunatic
Does the time we submit the answer matter? Can we change it after we already submitted?
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@Earth
Uh, when did I suggest that?
You suggested confirming a few people instead of everyone. The rest was my plan. Hence the "and."
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@Earth
Seems genuine to me. I've definitely seen that mindset from town.
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Also 59% is the odds of him being town, still think that's more likely than not.
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@Mikal
Like what do you think about my reads on specific posts and such?
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@Mikal
Kind of want your instinct on this. Here's my current read on whiteflame:
whiteflame
- Scum Lean (59%)
- Playing as Town: CoDdp1, CoDdp2, CoDdp3
- Playing as Scum: JFdp1, JFdp2, JFdp3
- #16 - SL - With WF it’s always difficult to tell, but starting the game with something unrelated to this particular game seems more aimed at gaining town cred through camaraderie.
- #17, #21, #23 - SL - I understand WF’s frustration here, I really do, but their reasons for refusing Mikal aren’t framed from a game strategy perspective. The case could be made that Mikal’s strategy does work for reading WF, and WF only challenges it out of personal distaste.
- #28 - SL - After being pressured, I think this post could be made to change the subject, which WF can get away with because of Mikal’s brash demeanor, and the formalities beside the vote could be meant to ensure the vote isn’t met with hostility. I think town would be more inclined to pressure other players, while scum would be more inclined to befriend them
- #32 - TL - WF complimenting Mikal’s strategy like this actually strikes me as more towny than scummy. It’s WF, and he could easily be thinking that giving credence to Mikal here is the towny move; however, I think there were alternative responses that could have been more strategic for scum and planted bigger seeds for suspecting Mikal
- #75 - TL - The frustration seems towny, and it indicates to me that the previous frustration was likely genuine as well, not solely to avoid pressure.
- #106 - SL - Feels a bit like WF is planting seeds for suspicion on Mikal without outright saying it or giving reads. Also when responding to a call for engagement, this post seems like it throws suspicion toward the most convenient player rather than analyzing the game as a whole and really scum hunting.
- #109, #115 - SL - I think a town player would be more likely to start making progress from what they have. Waiting for claims and for inactives to post (not even the first to note inactive players) could be a convenient way to test the waters.
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@Mikal
It doesn’t violate anything.
Sounds good. I suggest we go with Earth's plan and ask WF to give his full claim at the same time Moozer and Austin give their shows.
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