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@Lunatic
It's probably a moot point unless more people come online.
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@Lunatic
She's the CC'er
What makes you think she knew it was a counter claim? If she'd accused WyIted of lying that would be different, but she just said "how did you know?" when Casey asked if she was town protective. Banana has admitted before to not reading through the whole thread. Also, scum banana can act like it's a big deal now and then after a mislynch claim a role that's not really a cc at all.
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Ok, I'm probably leaving it at that. I don't see banana getting lynched before the dp ends, so best we can hope for is probably no lynch. But I'm leaving my vote where it is because who knows.
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@Earth
If you're gonna go with me on this, do it before everyone goes to sleep.
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Like banana is way calmer here
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@Earth
I think I noticed that too last game. Banana might be a good pick.
Thank you, I swear I was tearing my hair out wondering how the probability for banana being scum could be the highest with such little data on them. But it made some sense once I looked more at all the reads.
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Mikal
- Scum Lean (71.0%)
- Playing as Town: JFdp1, Riddledp1, Riddledp2
- Playing as Scum: Ozarkdp1, Ozarkdp2, Ozarkdp3
- #124 - Slight TL - Counterintuitively, I think I’ve usually seen this kind of defensiveness come from town. But a very slight read.
ILikePie5
- Scum Lean (70.6%)
- Playing as Town: JFdp1, JFdp2, TRdp1
- Playing as Scum: TVdp1, TVdp2
- #60 - TL - This attempt at identifying a theme split seems genuine enough and not really aimed at getting town cred. Indicates a good deal of effort into thinking through possible mechanics.
- #117 - Slight TL - Not a huge risk, but generally in line with what I think helps the town rn.
- #133, #140 - SL - Random accusation and low-effort reaction test, plus early town block with little justification or apparent effort behind them. Could be lazily faking his meta.
- #147 - Slight SL - While I kind of see where Pie’s coming from, this is a big leap to make from one post. Looking through old games, Pie tends to jump onto lynches opportunistically and make demands of players more rashly as scum.
- #243, #244, #245, #249 - TL - Pie is more thoughtful than usual and less aggressive than he could be, which I think is a town tell.
- #254, #255 - TL - I like that Pie is moving things forward in a pro-town way, and this doesn’t particularly benefit him if he’s scum.
- #378 - TL - I think this is townie for Pie to admit and a pro-town concern.
- #403, #410 - TL - Pie’s pushiness has decent reasoning behind it, so I town read him for it.
- #455 - SL - This speculation largely seems like it’s trying to gain town cred without actually committing to anything.
- #509a - SL - This seems like a very opportunistic attempt to expand the PoE.
- #509b - Strong Town - Claiming a confirmable role is a significant risk as scum.
Earth
- Scum Lean (61.4%)
- Playing as Town: CoDdp1, CoDdp2, CoDdp3
- Playing as Scum: RRV2dp1, RRV2dp2, RRV2dp3
- #23 - TL - Being slightly hostile like this right out the gate comes off as genuine, since it has little strategic advantage.
- #58 - TL - I agree with this, and there’s not a super strategic reason for Earth to defend Pie here as scum, especially since he could just post less which is his meta.
- #70 - SL - Post indicates that Earth has paid close attention to what can be in the game. I think that’s slightly more likely from scum, especially since Earth doesn’t tend to be a super active player.
- #137 - Slight SL - Earth isn’t actually giving anything up here, and I don’t see another response he could give that didn’t raise obvious suspicion. The fact that he qualifies it with “moving the game along” might be an opportunistic attempt to gain town cred.
- #459 - TL - Pretty towny to defend us when he could easily jump on the wagon or at least go along with it. Defending Pie is also not opportunistic.
iamanabanana
- Scum Lean (58.5%)
- Playing as Town: Governorsdp1, Governorsdp2, Governorsdp3
- Playing as Scum: GSdp1, GSdp2, GSdp3
- #113 - TL - I like that this post seems to have more thought put into it than banana’s first post last game, and I think scum would be less inclined to town read other players.
- #287 - TL - I think RM would be more worried about the risk of giving a full claim if his role was town.
- #572, #601 - Strong Scum - Claimed a protective role opportunistically, then planted seeds to explain conflicting roles when she realized it was a cc. Also the exclamation mark reads like fake enthusiasm similarly to last game.
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Reads List 6.0
I’m assuming a 7v2 setup. Each player is assigned an estimated probability of being town based on how towny or scummy they are. The average probability of being town is 75%, since there are 6 town players left besides me and 2 scum players left.
Mharman
- Town Lock (100%)
- Playing as Town: JFdp1, JFdp2, JFdp3
- Playing as Scum: CoDdp1, CoDdp2, CoDdp3
- #4, #5 - TL - I think that scum would be under more pressure for their first post and keep it simple, not instantly make a reference to religious literature before voting someone without a good excuse.
- #7 - TL - I don’t think scum would focus on looking into player activity like this, plus switching the vote very confidently.
- #12 - Slight SL - I do think making a joke like this can be a way of “breaking the tension” as scum when posting a lot to avoid being scum read, but this is a very slight indicator.
- #14 - Slight SL - I think it benefits scum here to put pressure on another player like this, especially since Mharman has already voted and arguably needs to justify it.
- #45, #46, #50, #57 - SL - A bit surface level, could be faking genuine conversation. In this case jumping topics isn’t towny since it doesn’t show a lot of thought into scum hunting.
- #51, #53 - TL - High effort here is towny, especially jumping from another subject, and I think Mharman’s reads were a bit less detailed as town.
- #93, #94 - TL - I think the read on me is fair if Mharman thought I didn’t have any reads written yet (and I did promise them before going back and realizing my pg 3 reads were inaccurate last game).
- #104, #106 - TL - Explanations for these actions seem genuine
- #129 - Slight SL - Passing the buck to try to get other people to accuse someone is sometimes a scum move, but then this could also be genuine town. I think this is only slightly more likely to come from scum.
- #208 - SL - I tend to see reaction tests come from scum as a lazy way to seem like they are scum hunting.
- #210 - SL - I think town Mharman would put in more effort than just town reading someone for not scum reading him.
- #220, #221, #225, #226 - SL - Very surface-level analysis that doesn’t reference much to justify it.
- #256 - SL - More reads that seem more opportunistic and vague than useful.
- #325 - TOWN LOCK - Only doc claim, and my role confirms the existence of a doctor.
Wylted
- Town (84.3%)
- Playing as Town: JFdp1, JFdp2, CoDdp1
- Playing as Scum: Castledp1, GSdp1
- #24, #30 - TL - Wylted draws attention to himself here, which would be a risk as scum, and these thoughts read genuine overall. There’s also a bit of nuance jumping from one subject to another, which I think scum would tend to avoid.
- #31, #33 - TL - Changing his mind without being asked also seems genuine here. It could be a scum play but doesn’t seem as likely.
- #43 - Slight TL - Insulting a player like this is a pretty big risk for scum to take.
- #63 - Slight TL - I think not reading the original post is a town tell.
- #142, #143 - SL - Opportunistic accusations with no details explaining them, could be a low-effort scum play.
- #145 - TL - Different but in a towny way, I like this amount of nuance and it makes the comment seem more genuine.
- #148, #150 - TL - These explanations don’t seem forced.
- #164 - SL - A bit opportunistic to start on this when he’s just been accused by Pie. Feels a bit like an intentional distraction.
- #195 - TL - I don’t see WyIted putting this much effort into a read if he doesn’t actually believe it.
- #195 - Slight SL - WyIted was in this game and knew it was the last one Mharman played as town, he should have spotted Mharman saying “here” first thing that game.
- #230, #231 - TL - A good deal of effort than isn’t surface-level.
- #238, #239, #240 - TL - If WyIted were just scum here, I don’t see him caring enough to explain his actions to this extent.
- #328, #335 - SL - I don’t think town WyIted would be crazy enough to bet everything on Mharman and I being a team and making a bold play like this so early in the game.
- #360 - SL - Switching accusations like this a bit opportunistically after Mharman had a solid claim very confidently with little basis.
- #423 - Strong Town - Role is confirmable, and it sounds like a town aligned role.
- #476 - SL - Feels like a bit of an opportunistic excuse.
- #458 - TL - I don’t see WyIted working this hard on a fake claim as scum.
- #572, #601 - SL - Counterclaim.
Lunatic
- Town Lean (78.3%)
- Playing as Town: Castledp1, JFdp1, JFdp2
- Playing as Scum: Chessdp1, Chessdp2, Chessdp3
- #38, #47, #49 - TL - This comment indicated that Luna paid a good deal of attention to the posts he responded to, which I think is generally pro-town. Scum can joke around too, but they might be more likely to skim, especially if Wyled’s comment doesn’t look particularly opportunistic. Plus jumping around topics indicates a more natural and genuine train of thought.
- #40 - TL - Saying this almost as an afterthought indicates it’s probably not a strategic move.
- #151 - Slight SL - Could be opportunistic to defend a player for town cred without actually defending them, I’d expect more scum or town reading from Luna as town.
- #212, #214, #215, #216, #218 - TL - This detailed level of analysis is towny since none of it seems opportunistic.
- #232, #236 - TL - These town reads don’t seem opportunistic.
- #518, #519, #525 - TL - I agree that this would be a crazy gambit, and it’s pro town for Luna to town-read us.
Casey_Risk
- Town Lean (75.9%)
- Playing as Town: SKdp1, SKdp2, SKdp3
- Playing as Scum: Gunplaydp1, Gunplaydp2, Gunplaydp3
- #34 - SL - I think a town member would be slightly more likely to avoid trusting AI, but a scum member might want to give themselves plausible deniability for getting it wrong, or just not be super concerned with accuracy since they can decide on a claim later. Or scum might not even use AI but say they did hoping it sounds genuine.
- #71, #79 - Slight TL - Given that Casey mentioned the signups page and nothing about WF’s first post, I think this indicates they haven’t paid too much attention to which roles are available for fake claims.
- #141 - TL - Reads seem detailed and genuine, if this is scum there’s a lot of effort being put in to seem towny, more than I’d expect.
- #209 - TL - A good amount of effort is put into analyzing WyIted, I don’t think scum would devote this much time to such a task.
- #260 - TL - Defending me and WyIted doesn’t seem opportunistic, and it would be easy for Casey to try to plant seeds of suspicion.
- #359 - NAI - Explained by a later post.
- #382 - TL - As much as I hate the vote on me, I think the logic here is coming from town Casey.
- #387, #389 - TL - Again, towny attention to detail.
- #392 - TL - Unvote seems very genuine and there’s no opportunistic reason for it.
- #467 - Slight TL - This post seems kind of towny and I do like some of the logic, but I could also see it maybe coming from scum.
- #506 - TL - I agree with the thoughts on balance, and given the level of detail I think this would be hard to fake as scum.
- #520 - Slight TL - Mostly agree, though agreement is only a slightly alignment indicative. Could be opportunistic against Pie, but then it’s clearly not opportunistic against me.
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@Earth
@WyIted
@iamanabanana
How did you find out? What!
I should also note that this reads the same way as it did during Mikal's bus. I think banana might have a tendency to use exclamation marks when lying, and it read insincere to me then too.
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@Earth
Banana's claim should be the most suspicious...only claimed protective when Casey asked if their role was protective. Didn't give a role description early on or at all. WyIted sucks at fake claiming, and "doctor" is more likely to be in the game than any other protective role, especially given mine.
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@Earth
its looking like it'll be Mikal
You want to lynch an inactive when we have counterclaims?
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This is why day phases should end before most players go to bed...idk why it became the norm to do the opposite.
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@Earth
I'll sleep on who to lynch
We have like 10 hours. You can't sleep on it.
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@Casey_Risk
If you choose three random players other than yourself, the odds are about 64% according to my calculations
Yeah you're right, somehow I said "if you are town" and then calculated for 9 other players anyway.
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@ILikePie5
I’m willing to bet money there’s at least one scum in Banana, Savant, Mharman, Wylted. Most likely Savant, Mharman, Wylted though.
That means nothing. If you are town, the odds of at least one scum in a group of three players is 58%. Even assuming 7v2, we have to lynch scum at least half the time.
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@ILikePie5
@WyIted
I literally told you my role PM says something about doc role no longer working "for all players." How does the existence of multiple protective roles make me scum? I have no idea what's going on with all the counter claims, but I don't see how any of that is my fault.
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@ILikePie5
even though I claimed I have a confirmable role?
I'd rather lynch Earth but that's not happening today, I did take it into account but claiming role confirmable isn't the same as saying the role or claiming affiliation confirmable.
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I don't think we're getting an Earth lynch this DP, and Pie is significantly better than nothing.
VTL Pie
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I guess I will get screwed over if Mharman somehow is odd night or something, but I'm gonna guess he's not for balance reasons.
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@Lunatic
he would have gambled the existence of a doctor here if so, or I guess he could have asked the question
Even if I did, I'd be gambling that the doctor doesn't have anything else weakening them. Like if the doctor was odd-night or hindered in some other way, my claim doesn't fit as well.
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Reads List 5.0
I’m assuming a 7v2 setup. Each player is assigned an estimated probability of being town based on how towny or scummy they are. The average probability of being town is 75%, since there are 6 town players left besides me and 2 scum players left.
Mharman
- Town Lock (100%)
- Playing as Town: JFdp1, JFdp2, JFdp3
- Playing as Scum: CoDdp1, CoDdp2, CoDdp3
- #4, #5 - TL - I think that scum would be under more pressure for their first post and keep it simple, not instantly make a reference to religious literature before voting someone without a good excuse.
- #7 - TL - I don’t think scum would focus on looking into player activity like this, plus switching the vote very confidently.
- #12 - Slight SL - I do think making a joke like this can be a way of “breaking the tension” as scum when posting a lot to avoid being scum read, but this is a very slight indicator.
- #14 - Slight SL - I think it benefits scum here to put pressure on another player like this, especially since Mharman has already voted and arguably needs to justify it.
- #45, #46, #50, #57 - SL - A bit surface level, could be faking genuine conversation. In this case jumping topics isn’t towny since it doesn’t show a lot of thought into scum hunting.
- #51, #53 - TL - High effort here is towny, especially jumping from another subject, and I think Mharman’s reads were a bit less detailed as town.
- #93, #94 - TL - I think the read on me is fair if Mharman thought I didn’t have any reads written yet (and I did promise them before going back and realizing my pg 3 reads were inaccurate last game).
- #104, #106 - TL - Explanations for these actions seem genuine
- #129 - Slight SL - Passing the buck to try to get other people to accuse someone is sometimes a scum move, but then this could also be genuine town. I think this is only slightly more likely to come from scum.
- #208 - SL - I tend to see reaction tests come from scum as a lazy way to seem like they are scum hunting.
- #210 - SL - I think town Mharman would put in more effort than just town reading someone for not scum reading him.
- #220, #221, #225, #226 - SL - Very surface-level analysis that doesn’t reference much to justify it.
- #256 - SL - More reads that seem more opportunistic and vague than useful.
- #325 - TOWN LOCK - Only doc claim, and my role confirms the existence of a doctor.
Wylted
- Town Lock (96.2%)
- Playing as Town: JFdp1, JFdp2, CoDdp1
- Playing as Scum: Castledp1, GSdp1
- #24, #30 - TL - Wylted draws attention to himself here, which would be a risk as scum, and these thoughts read genuine overall. There’s also a bit of nuance jumping from one subject to another, which I think scum would tend to avoid.
- #31, #33 - TL - Changing his mind without being asked also seems genuine here. It could be a scum play but doesn’t seem as likely.
- #43 - Slight TL - Insulting a player like this is a pretty big risk for scum to take.
- #63 - Slight TL - I think not reading the original post is a town tell.
- #142, #143 - SL - Opportunistic accusations with no details explaining them, could be a low-effort scum play.
- #145 - TL - Different but in a towny way, I like this amount of nuance and it makes the comment seem more genuine.
- #148, #150 - TL - These explanations don’t seem forced.
- #164 - SL - A bit opportunistic to start on this when he’s just been accused by Pie. Feels a bit like an intentional distraction.
- #195 - TL - I don’t see WyIted putting this much effort into a read if he doesn’t actually believe it.
- #195 - Slight SL - WyIted was in this game and knew it was the last one Mharman played as town, he should have spotted Mharman saying “here” first thing that game.
- #230, #231 - TL - A good deal of effort than isn’t surface-level.
- #238, #239, #240 - TL - If WyIted were just scum here, I don’t see him caring enough to explain his actions to this extent.
- #328, #335 - SL - I don’t think town WyIted would be crazy enough to bet everything on Mharman and I being a team and making a bold play like this so early in the game.
- #360 - SL - Switching accusations like this a bit opportunistically after Mharman had a solid claim very confidently with little basis.
- #423 - Strong Town - Role is confirmable, and it sounds like a town aligned role.
- #476 - SL - Feels like a bit of an opportunistic excuse.
- #458 - TL - I don’t see WyIted working this hard on a fake claim as scum.
Lunatic
- Scum Lean (74.1%)
- Playing as Town: Castledp1, JFdp1, JFdp2
- Playing as Scum: Chessdp1, Chessdp2, Chessdp3
- #38, #47, #49 - TL - This comment indicated that Luna paid a good deal of attention to the posts he responded to, which I think is generally pro-town. Scum can joke around too, but they might be more likely to skim, especially if Wyled’s comment doesn’t look particularly opportunistic. Plus jumping around topics indicates a more natural and genuine train of thought.
- #40 - TL - Saying this almost as an afterthought indicates it’s probably not a strategic move.
- #151 - Slight SL - Could be opportunistic to defend a player for town cred without actually defending them, I’d expect more scum or town reading from Luna as town.
- #212, #214, #215, #216, #218 - TL - This detailed level of analysis is towny since none of it seems opportunistic.
- #232, #236 - TL - These town reads don’t seem opportunistic.
- #518, #519, #525 - TL - I agree that this would be a crazy gambit, and it’s pro town for Luna to town-read us.
iamanabanana
- Scum Lean (73.6%)
- Playing as Town: Governorsdp1, Governorsdp2, Governorsdp3
- Playing as Scum: GSdp1, GSdp2, GSdp3
- #113 - TL - I like that this post seems to have more thought put into it than banana’s first post last game, and I think scum would be less inclined to town read other players.
- #287 - TL - I think RM would be more worried about the risk for giving a full claim if his role was town.
Mikal
- Scum Lean (70.2%)
- Playing as Town: JFdp1, Riddledp1, Riddledp2
- Playing as Scum: Ozarkdp1, Ozarkdp2, Ozarkdp3
- #124 - Slight TL - Counterintuitively, I think I’ve usually seen this kind of defensiveness come from town. But a very slight read.
Casey_Risk
- Scum Lean (66.4%)
- Playing as Town: SKdp1, SKdp2, SKdp3
- Playing as Scum: Gunplaydp1, Gunplaydp2, Gunplaydp3
- #34 - SL - I think a town member would be slightly more likely to avoid trusting AI, but a scum member might want to give themselves plausible deniability for getting it wrong, or just not be super concerned with accuracy since they can decide on a claim later. Or scum might not even use AI but say they did hoping it sounds genuine.
- #71, #79 - Slight TL - Given that Casey mentioned the signups page and nothing about WF’s first post, I think this indicates they haven’t paid too much attention to which roles are available for fake claims.
- #141 - TL - Reads seem detailed and genuine, if this is scum there’s a lot of effort being put in to seem towny, more than I’d expect.
- #209 - TL - A good amount of effort is put into analyzing WyIted, I don’t think scum would devote this much time to such a task.
- #260 - TL - Defending me and WyIted doesn’t seem opportunistic, and it would be easy for Casey to try to plant seeds of suspicion.
- #359 - NAI - Explained by a later post.
- #382 - TL - As much as I hate the vote on me, I think the logic here is coming from town Casey.
- #387, #389 - TL - Again, towny attention to detail.
- #392 - TL - Unvote seems very genuine and there’s no opportunistic reason for it.
- #467 - Slight TL - This post seems kind of towny and I do like some of the logic, but I could also see it maybe coming from scum.
- #506 - TL - I agree with the thoughts on balance, and given the level of detail I think this would be hard to fake as scum.
- #520 - Slight TL - Mostly agree, though agreement is only a slightly alignment indicative. Could be opportunistic against Pie, but then it’s clearly not opportunistic against me.
ILikePie5
- Scum Lean (62.9%)
- Playing as Town: JFdp1, JFdp2, TRdp1
- Playing as Scum: TVdp1, TVdp2
- #60 - TL - This attempt at identifying a theme split seems genuine enough and not really aimed at getting town cred. Indicates a good deal of effort into thinking through possible mechanics.
- #117 - Slight TL - Not a huge risk, but generally in line with what I think helps the town rn.
- #133, #140 - SL - Random accusation and low-effort reaction test, plus early town block with little justification or apparent effort behind them. Could be lazily faking his meta.
- #147 - Slight SL - While I kind of see where Pie’s coming from, this is a big leap to make from one post. Looking through old games, Pie tends to jump onto lynches opportunistically and make demands of players more rashly as scum.
- #243, #244, #245, #249 - TL - Pie is more thoughtful than usual and less aggressive than he could be, which I think is a town tell.
- #254, #255 - TL - I like that Pie is moving things forward in a pro-town way, and this doesn’t particularly benefit him if he’s scum.
- #378 - TL - I think this is townie for Pie to admit and a pro-town concern.
- #403, #410 - TL - Pie’s pushiness has decent reasoning behind it, so I town read him for it.
- #455 - SL - This speculation largely seems like it’s trying to gain town cred without actually committing to anything.
- #509a - SL - This seems like a very opportunistic attempt to expand the PoE.
- #509b - Strong Town - Claiming a confirmable role is a significant risk as scum.
Earth
- Scum Lean (56.7%)
- Playing as Town: CoDdp1, CoDdp2, CoDdp3
- Playing as Scum: RRV2dp1, RRV2dp2, RRV2dp3
- #23 - TL - Being slightly hostile like this right out the gate comes off as genuine, since it has little strategic advantage.
- #58 - TL - I agree with this, and there’s not a super strategic reason for Earth to defend Pie here as scum, especially since he could just post less which is his meta.
- #70 - SL - Post indicates that Earth has paid close attention to what can be in the game. I think that’s slightly more likely from scum, especially since Earth doesn’t tend to be a super active player.
- #137 - Slight SL - Earth isn’t actually giving anything up here, and I don’t see another response he could give that didn’t raise obvious suspicion. The fact that he qualifies it with “moving the game along” might be an opportunistic attempt to gain town cred.
- #459 - TL - Pretty towny to defend us when he could easily jump on the wagon or at least go along with it. Defending Pie is also not opportunistic.
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@Lunatic
WHAT?! YOUR ROLE LITERALLY CONFIRMS THE EXISTENCE OF A DOCTOR. Why would you EVER lynch mharman here?!
That was before he claimed doctor. After he did, I town locked him.
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@Lunatic
Did you consider lying about your claim? Not judging your play just asking as im generally curious about your thought process in claiming here. Sometimes lying can backfire and its best to be honest if you aren't good at it, so again not judging just wondering if you didn't think you could pull off a good enough townie lie here.
I thought about it but then I figured doctor could probably protect me at night and I thought getting caught in a lie would probably just screw me over. I mean I was the first to role claim so there was a good chance any lie would get counterclaimed.
Also but less so, even now there's a chance I'm lying to bait a NK from scum POV (less so now that a doc has claimed).
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@ILikePie5
Forget about your justification, here are my town reads: Banana, Earth, Pie, Mharman, Wylted, Lunatic (weakest)
Banana is your strongest town read despite having made two posts total? If this is about RM's posts, I think they help banana, but it's not a lock. Don't see how it makes banana more towny than the only claimed doctor, a potentially confirmable role. Or stronger than anyone whose posted a lot more.
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I'm fine going after Pie. Earth's last few posts were towny.
VTL Pie
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@ILikePie5
Do you really think we should be getting 4 claims DP1?
No one who claimed so far seems scummy to me, so I'd rather lynch within PoE. As for a claim, well, if we vote Earth he'll probably give one anyway to try to save his skin.
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@Greyparrot
Tell me, exactly which African nation did we export our culture to successfully and ended the ongoing slavery in Africa?
You said culture, not nation. If it's nations you care about, then the US influenced Japan's culture to a large extent following WW2. If it's African countries that count, the US has significantly impacted Nigerian culture. As for ending slavery in Africa, I'm not sure why the US needs to have accomplished that to prove my point.
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@Casey_Risk
Are you referring to this post? Just because I acknowledged the possibility of Mharman's claim proving his innocence and then he did doesn't make me scum. If it was all scripted and we were partners, what would be the point of me saying that? Wouldn't I just tell Mharman what to do in the scum chat?
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@AdaptableRatman
Do you need to be a mod to know the debate
I thought you meant the title of the thread...I don't think we're arguing past each other just yet.
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@Greyparrot
you can’t export freedom to cultures that don’t want it
I mean, the US did do that? Ending slavery was by no means easy, but it did happen.
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Ignore the scum lean/town lean stuff, I forgot to update it. Everyone except WyIted and Mharman are scum leans.
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Reads List 4.0
I’m assuming a 7v2 setup. Each player is assigned an estimated probability of being town based on how towny or scummy they are. The average probability of being town is 75%, since there are 6 town players left besides me and 2 scum players left.
Mharman
- Town Lock (100%)
- Playing as Town: JFdp1, JFdp2, JFdp3
- Playing as Scum: CoDdp1, CoDdp2, CoDdp3
- #4, #5 - TL - I think that scum would be under more pressure for their first post and keep it simple, not instantly make a reference to religious literature before voting someone without a good excuse.
- #7 - TL - I don’t think scum would focus on looking into player activity like this, plus switching the vote very confidently.
- #12 - Slight SL - I do think making a joke like this can be a way of “breaking the tension” as scum when posting a lot to avoid being scum read, but this is a very slight indicator.
- #14 - Slight SL - I think it benefits scum here to put pressure on another player like this, especially since Mharman has already voted and arguably needs to justify it.
- #45, #46, #50, #57 - SL - A bit surface level, could be faking genuine conversation. In this case jumping topics isn’t towny since it doesn’t show a lot of thought into scum hunting.
- #51, #53 - TL - High effort here is towny, especially jumping from another subject, and I think Mharman’s reads were a bit less detailed as town.
- #93, #94 - TL - I think the read on me is fair if Mharman thought I didn’t have any reads written yet (and I did promise them before going back and realizing my pg 3 reads were inaccurate last game).
- #104, #106 - TL - Explanations for these actions seem genuine
- #129 - Slight SL - Passing the buck to try to get other people to accuse someone is sometimes a scum move, but then this could also be genuine town. I think this is only slightly more likely to come from scum.
- #208 - SL - I tend to see reaction tests come from scum as a lazy way to seem like they are scum hunting.
- #210 - SL - I think town Mharman would put in more effort than just town reading someone for not scum reading him.
- #220, #221, #225, #226 - SL - Very surface-level analysis that doesn’t reference much to justify it.
- #256 - SL - More reads that seem more opportunistic and vague than useful.
- #325 - TOWN LOCK - Only doc claim, and my role confirms the existence of a doctor.
Wylted
- Town (91.4%)
- Playing as Town: JFdp1, JFdp2, CoDdp1
- Playing as Scum: Castledp1, GSdp1
- #24, #30 - TL - Wylted draws attention to himself here, which would be a risk as scum, and these thoughts read genuine overall. There’s also a bit of nuance jumping from one subject to another, which I think scum would tend to avoid.
- #31, #33 - TL - Changing his mind without being asked also seems genuine here. It could be a scum play but doesn’t seem as likely.
- #43 - Slight TL - Insulting a player like this is a pretty big risk for scum to take.
- #63 - Slight TL - I think not reading the original post is a town tell.
- #142, #143 - SL - Opportunistic accusations with no details explaining them, could be a low-effort scum play.
- #145 - TL - Different but in a towny way, I like this amount of nuance and it makes the comment seem more genuine.
- #148, #150 - TL - These explanations don’t seem forced.
- #164 - SL - A bit opportunistic to start on this when he’s just been accused by Pie. Feels a bit like an intentional distraction.
- #195 - TL - I don’t see WyIted putting this much effort into a read if he doesn’t actually believe it.
- #195 - Slight SL - WyIted was in this game and knew it was the last one Mharman played as town, he should have spotted Mharman saying “here” first thing that game.
- #230, #231 - TL - A good deal of effort than isn’t surface-level.
- #238, #239, #240 - TL - If WyIted were just scum here, I don’t see him caring enough to explain his actions to this extent.
- #328, #335 - SL - I don’t think town WyIted would be crazy enough to bet everything on Mharman and I being a team and making a bold play like this so early in the game.
- #360 - SL - Switching accusations like this a bit opportunistically after Mharman had a solid claim very confidently with little basis.
- #423 - Strong Town - Role is confirmable, and it sounds like a town aligned role.
iamanabanana
- Scum Lean (72.5%)
- Playing as Town: Governorsdp1, Governorsdp2, Governorsdp3
- Playing as Scum: GSdp1, GSdp2, GSdp3
- #113 - TL - I like that this post seems to have more thought put into it than banana’s first post last game, and I think scum would be less inclined to town read other players.
- #287 - TL - I think RM would be more worried about the risk for giving a full claim if his role was town.
Lunatic
- Town Lean (71.4%)
- Playing as Town: Castledp1, JFdp1, JFdp2
- Playing as Scum: Chessdp1, Chessdp2, Chessdp3
- #38, #47, #49 - TL - This comment indicated that Luna paid a good deal of attention to the posts he responded to, which I think is generally pro-town. Scum can joke around too, but they might be more likely to skim, especially if Wyled’s comment doesn’t look particularly opportunistic. Plus jumping around topics indicates a more natural and genuine train of thought.
- #40 - TL - Saying this almost as an afterthought indicates it’s probably not a strategic move.
- #151 - Slight SL - Could be opportunistic to defend a player for town cred without actually defending them, I’d expect more scum or town reading from Luna as town.
- #212, #214, #215, #216, #218 - TL - This detailed level of analysis is towny since none of it seems opportunistic.
- #232, #236 - TL - These town reads don’t seem opportunistic.
Mikal
- Scum Lean (70.7%)
- Playing as Town: JFdp1, Riddledp1, Riddledp2
- Playing as Scum: Ozarkdp1, Ozarkdp2, Ozarkdp3
- #124 - Slight TL - Counterintuitively, I think I’ve usually seen this kind of defensiveness come from town. But a very slight read.
Casey_Risk
- Town Lean (68.2%)
- Playing as Town: SKdp1, SKdp2, SKdp3
- Playing as Scum: Gunplaydp1, Gunplaydp2, Gunplaydp3
- #34 - SL - I think a town member would be slightly more likely to avoid trusting AI, but a scum member might want to give themselves plausible deniability for getting it wrong, or just not be super concerned with accuracy since they can decide on a claim later. Or scum might not even use AI but say they did hoping it sounds genuine.
- #71, #79 - Slight TL - Given that Casey mentioned the signups page and nothing about WF’s first post, I think this indicates they haven’t paid too much attention to which roles are available for fake claims.
- #141 - TL - Reads seem detailed and genuine, if this is scum there’s a lot of effort being put in to seem towny, more than I’d expect.
- #209 - TL - A good amount of effort is put into analyzing WyIted, I don’t think scum would devote this much time to such a task.
- #260 - TL - Defending me and WyIted doesn’t seem opportunistic, and it would be easy for Casey to try to plant seeds of suspicion.
- #359 - NAI - Explained by a later post.
- #382 - TL - As much as I hate the vote on me, I think the logic here is coming from town Casey.
- #387, #389 - TL - Again, towny attention to detail.
- #392 - TL - Unvote seems very genuine and there’s no opportunistic reason for it.
ILikePie5
- Scum Lean (63.8%)
- Playing as Town: JFdp1, JFdp2, TRdp1
- Playing as Scum: TVdp1, TVdp2
- #60 - TL - This attempt at identifying a theme split seems genuine enough and not really aimed at getting town cred. Indicates a good deal of effort into thinking through possible mechanics.
- #117 - Slight TL - Not a huge risk, but generally in line with what I think helps the town rn.
- #133, #140 - SL - Random accusation and low-effort reaction test, plus early town block with little justification or apparent effort behind them. Could be lazily faking his meta.
- #147 - Slight SL - While I kind of see where Pie’s coming from, this is a big leap to make from one post. Looking through old games, Pie tends to jump onto lynches opportunistically and make demands of players more rashly as scum.
- #243, #244, #245, #249 - TL - Pie is more thoughtful than usual and less aggressive than he could be, which I think is a town tell.
- #254, #255 - TL - I like that Pie is moving things forward in a pro-town way, and this doesn’t particularly benefit him if he’s scum.
- #378 - TL - I think this is townie for Pie to admit and a pro-town concern.
- #403, #410 - TL - Pie’s pushiness has decent reasoning behind it, so I town read him for it.
Earth
- Scum Lean (62.1%)
- Playing as Town: CoDdp1, CoDdp2, CoDdp3
- Playing as Scum: RRV2dp1, RRV2dp2, RRV2dp3
- #23 - TL - Being slightly hostile like this right out the gate comes off as genuine, since it has little strategic advantage.
- #58 - TL - I agree with this, and there’s not a super strategic reason for Earth to defend Pie here as scum, especially since he could just post less which is his meta.
- #70 - SL - Post indicates that Earth has paid close attention to what can be in the game. I think that’s slightly more likely from scum, especially since Earth doesn’t tend to be a super active player.
- #137 - Slight SL - Earth isn’t actually giving anything up here, and I don’t see another response he could give that didn’t raise obvious suspicion. The fact that he qualifies it with “moving the game along” might be an opportunistic attempt to gain town cred.
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@ILikePie5
Why can’t this be a scum role?
It just seems like a town role, especially since doctor (another defensive role) is pretty weakened by my role in this case. Also if scum tried to block an investigator from investigating them, it would be suspicious so the role isn't really useful to them. They have to use it on power roles who they can justify seeing as suspicious, which just doesn't work balance-wise.
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@WyIted
I also do not have a justification now that I look again so if other town members are also lacking justification than mharman looks suspicious for that but it's hard to think savant would intertwine with him if they are both scum
We should use your role to confirm you. Someone can volunteer to test using their role on you.
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@WyIted
I am the avoider. If I choose somebody and that person also targets me nothing they do works including the NK. So it can buy us extra dps, but probably not now. The ability is also unlimited so if one scum remains and I know who they are I can almost become invincible to NKS if I use the role right
Justification?
Also this is 100% confirmable. I'm town locking WyIted.
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@ILikePie5
Your character is salmonella, and nobody can spell ya
S-A-L-M-something wreaking havoc in the guts of a fella
Cause you modify the host responses around you
And certain microbes couldn't survive without you
Enabler, so when you die then your response is
That no one can be healed no matter who the doc is
That's the best I can paraphrase it, although whiteflame's bars were admittedly better than mine.
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Updated percentages a little. Won't post all my reads again, but here's the highlights
Town Lock
Mharman
Town Lean
Casey
Luna
PoE
iamanabanana
Mikal
ILikePie5
Earth
Wylted
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@Mharman
How does Salmonella enable?
I enable the survival of "microbes that help me" apparently.
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@Casey_Risk
I'm assuming your scum lean on everyone except Mharman is a mistake.
No, Mharman being a town lock dopped everyone's odds of being town below random chance.
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@Casey_Risk
Austin's defense of Savant in BotW Mafia
That was when one scum had definitely been caught, not when someone thought two people essential to the town might be paired.
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@Lunatic
@ILikePie5
@Mharman
@WyIted
@Casey_Risk
Reads List 3.0
I’m assuming a 7v2 setup. Each player is assigned an estimated probability of being town based on how towny or scummy they are. The average probability of being town is 75%, since there are 6 town players left besides me and 2 scum players left.
Mharman
- Town Lock (100%)
- Playing as Town: JFdp1, JFdp2, JFdp3
- Playing as Scum: CoDdp1, CoDdp2, CoDdp3
- #4, #5 - TL - I think that scum would be under more pressure for their first post and keep it simple, not instantly make a reference to religious literature before voting someone without a good excuse.
- #7 - TL - I don’t think scum would focus on looking into player activity like this, plus switching the vote very confidently.
- #12 - Slight SL - I do think making a joke like this can be a way of “breaking the tension” as scum when posting a lot to avoid being scum read, but this is a very slight indicator.
- #14 - Slight SL - I think it benefits scum here to put pressure on another player like this, especially since Mharman has already voted and arguably needs to justify it.
- #45, #46, #50, #57 - SL - A bit surface level, could be faking genuine conversation. In this case jumping topics isn’t towny since it doesn’t show a lot of thought into scum hunting.
- #51, #53 - TL - High effort here is towny, especially jumping from another subject, and I think Mharman’s reads were a bit less detailed as town.
- #93, #94 - TL - I think the read on me is fair if Mharman thought I didn’t have any reads written yet (and I did promise them before going back and realizing my pg 3 reads were inaccurate last game).
- #104, #106 - TL - Explanations for these actions seem genuine
- #129 - Slight SL - Passing the buck to try to get other people to accuse someone is sometimes a scum move, but then this could also be genuine town. I think this is only slightly more likely to come from scum.
- #208 - SL - I tend to see reaction tests come from scum as a lazy way to seem like they are scum hunting.
- #210 - SL - I think town Mharman would put in more effort than just town reading someone for not scum reading him.
- #220, #221, #225, #226 - SL - Very surface-level analysis that doesn’t reference much to justify it.
- #256 - SL - More reads that seem more opportunistic and vague than useful.
- #325 - TOWN LOCK - Only doc claim, and my role confirms the existence of a doctor.
Lunatic
- Scum Lean (72.8%)
- Playing as Town: Castledp1, JFdp1, JFdp2
- Playing as Scum: Chessdp1, Chessdp2, Chessdp3
- #38, #47, #49 - TL - This comment indicated that Luna paid a good deal of attention to the posts he responded to, which I think is generally pro-town. Scum can joke around too, but they might be more likely to skim, especially if Wyled’s comment doesn’t look particularly opportunistic. Plus jumping around topics indicates a more natural and genuine train of thought.
- #40 - TL - Saying this almost as an afterthought indicates it’s probably not a strategic move.
- #151 - Slight SL - Could be opportunistic to defend a player for town cred without actually defending them, I’d expect more scum or town reading from Luna as town.
- #212, #214, #215, #216, #218 - TL - This detailed level of analysis is towny since none of it seems opportunistic.
- #232, #236 - TL - These town reads don’t seem opportunistic.
iamanabanana
- Scum Lean (72.0%)
- Playing as Town: Governorsdp1, Governorsdp2, Governorsdp3
- Playing as Scum: GSdp1, GSdp2, GSdp3
- #113 - TL - I like that this post seems to have more thought put into it than banana’s first post last game, and I think scum would be less inclined to town read other players.
- #287 - TL - I think RM would be more worried about the risk for giving a full claim if his role was town.
Casey_Risk
- Scum Lean (71.8%)
- Playing as Town: SKdp1, SKdp2, SKdp3
- Playing as Scum: Gunplaydp1, Gunplaydp2, Gunplaydp3
- #34 - SL - I think a town member would be slightly more likely to avoid trusting AI, but a scum member might want to give themselves plausible deniability for getting it wrong, or just not be super concerned with accuracy since they can decide on a claim later. Or scum might not even use AI but say they did hoping it sounds genuine.
- #71, #79 - Slight TL - Given that Casey mentioned the signups page and nothing about WF’s first post, I think this indicates they haven’t paid too much attention to which roles are available for fake claims.
- #141 - TL - Reads seem detailed and genuine, if this is scum there’s a lot of effort being put in to seem towny, more than I’d expect.
- #209 - TL - A good amount of effort is put into analyzing WyIted, I don’t think scum would devote this much time to such a task.
- #260 - TL - Defending me and WyIted doesn’t seem opportunistic, and it would be easy for Casey to try to plant seeds of suspicion.
- #359 - SL - A bit opportunistic, plus a weird assumption with no detailed analysis to go with it.
Mikal
- Scum Lean (71.5%)
- Playing as Town: JFdp1, Riddledp1, Riddledp2
- Playing as Scum: Ozarkdp1, Ozarkdp2, Ozarkdp3
- #124 - Slight TL - Counterintuitively, I think I’ve usually seen this kind of defensiveness come from town. But a very slight read.
ILikePie5
- Scum Lean (71.4%)
- Playing as Town: JFdp1, JFdp2, TRdp1
- Playing as Scum: TVdp1, TVdp2
- #60 - TL - This attempt at identifying a theme split seems genuine enough and not really aimed at getting town cred. Indicates a good deal of effort into thinking through possible mechanics.
- #117 - Slight TL - Not a huge risk, but generally in line with what I think helps the town rn.
- #133, #140 - SL - Random accusation and low-effort reaction test, plus early town block with little justification or apparent effort behind them. Could be lazily faking his meta.
- #147 - Slight SL - While I kind of see where Pie’s coming from, this is a big leap to make from one post. Looking through old games, Pie tends to jump onto lynches opportunistically and make demands of players more rashly as scum.
- #243, #244, #245, #249 - TL - Pie is more thoughtful than usual and less aggressive than he could be, which I think is a town tell.
- #254, #255 - TL - I like that Pie is moving things forward in a pro-town way, and this doesn’t particularly benefit him if he’s scum.
- #378 - TL - I think this is townie for Pie to admit and a pro-town concern.
Wylted
- Scum Lean (70.3%)
- Playing as Town: JFdp1, JFdp2, CoDdp1
- Playing as Scum: Castledp1, GSdp1
- #24, #30 - TL - Wylted draws attention to himself here, which would be a risk as scum, and these thoughts read genuine overall. There’s also a bit of nuance jumping from one subject to another, which I think scum would tend to avoid.
- #31, #33 - TL - Changing his mind without being asked also seems genuine here. It could be a scum play but doesn’t seem as likely.
- #43 - Slight TL - Insulting a player like this is a pretty big risk for scum to take.
- #63 - Slight TL - I think not reading the original post is a town tell.
- #142, #143 - SL - Opportunistic accusations with no details explaining them, could be a low-effort scum play.
- #145 - TL - Different but in a towny way, I like this amount of nuance and it makes the comment seem more genuine.
- #148, #150 - TL - These explanations don’t seem forced.
- #164 - SL - A bit opportunistic to start on this when he’s just been accused by Pie. Feels a bit like an intentional distraction.
- #195 - TL - I don’t see WyIted putting this much effort into a read if he doesn’t actually believe it.
- #195 - Slight SL - WyIted was in this game and knew it was the last one Mharman played as town, he should have spotted Mharman saying “here” first thing that game.
- #230, #231 - TL - A good deal of effort than isn’t surface-level.
- #238, #239, #240 - TL - If WyIted were just scum here, I don’t see him caring enough to explain his actions to this extent.
- #328, #335 - SL - I don’t think town WyIted would be crazy enough to bet everything on Mharman and I being a team and making a bold play like this so early in the game.
- #360 - SL - Switching accusations like this a bit opportunistically after Mharman had a solid claim very confidently with little basis.
Earth
- Scum Lean (70.2%)
- Playing as Town: CoDdp1, CoDdp2, CoDdp3
- Playing as Scum: RRV2dp1, RRV2dp2, RRV2dp3
- #23 - TL - Being slightly hostile like this right out the gate comes off as genuine, since it has little strategic advantage.
- #58 - TL - I agree with this, and there’s not a super strategic reason for Earth to defend Pie here as scum, especially since he could just post less which is his meta.
- #70 - SL - Post indicates that Earth has paid close attention to what can be in the game. I think that’s slightly more likely from scum, especially since Earth doesn’t tend to be a super active player.
- #137 - Slight SL - Earth isn’t actually giving anything up here, and I don’t see another response he could give that didn’t raise obvious suspicion. The fact that he qualifies it with “moving the game along” might be an opportunistic attempt to gain town cred.
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@ILikePie5
Scum can easily figure out your role (I already have). Just full claim
You could just tell us WyIted's role at this point.
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@ILikePie5
Character and Justification please.
I gave my character. I'm Salmonella. I modify host responses, and I facilitate the survival of only some microbes.
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