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@Earth
@WyIted
I checked, and this thread is moving significantly slower than the last game. So I'm down to get a claim from someone.
VTL Wylted
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@Greyparrot
Saying "we can't deport a visa overstayer because it's civil"
When did I say that though?
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@WyIted
Or you could just read his posts and use common sense
I did, and my reads don't change. He's basically null to me.
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@ILikePie5
Also, what's your example of it being scummy? If WyIted is scum, shouldn't we expect him to act like he usually does in scum games?
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@ILikePie5
How did Casey change their meta?
I thought they put in more effort that game.
You had a reason to. What reason does Wylted have?
He gave one here. "Burning the old self." And WyIted's behavior changes basically every day.
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@WyIted
Also there's no way Pie had more than two examples in mind when he was saying that, I can't even remember a single case where we caught scum that way.
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@WyIted
Pue said usually means scum. Why would you then criticize his statement by saying there are exceptions? The word usually implies exceptions and in my opinion something that is 60% likely is good enough to be called "usually".
Because he had no problem town reading Casey or I in that game, suggesting that our changed behavior increased our odds of being town, it wasn't some rare exception that we ended up being town. I get the thing about coming back from championships, but when someone's behavior changes that noticeably, there's usually an explanation. In your case, whatever that AI thing was.
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@ILikePie5
You have anyone else you want to pursue?
I have you as my top scum read, but none of my reads are that confident atm. Might as well post what I have so far so you can hopefully give some insight into your behavior. For reference, "random" odds of being town are 75%.
ILikePie5
- Null (73.8%)
- Playing as Town: JFdp1, JFdp2, TRdp1
- Playing as Scum: TVdp1, TVdp2
- #60 - TL - This attempt at identifying a theme split seems genuine enough and not really aimed at getting town cred. Indicates a good deal of effort into thinking through possible mechanics.
- #117 - Slight TL - Not a huge risk, but generally in line with what I think helps the town rn
- #133, #140 - SL - Random accusation and low-effort reaction test, plus early town block with little justification or apparent effort behind them. Could be lazily faking his meta.
- #147 - Slight SL - While I kind of see where Pie’s coming from, this is a big leap to make from one post. Looking through old games, Pie tends to jump onto lynches opportunistically and make demands of players as scum.
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@ILikePie5
Change in vibes usually means scum
Except I totally changed my approach last game and I was town. Casey also put in a lot more effort.
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@ILikePie5
Post 145 does not give Wylted vibes at allVTL Wylted for full claim
Sure, but that's different from giving scum vibes.
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@Sir.Lancelot
People are less likely to forfeit in rated debates.They are more likely to pay attention when they are staking their elo.
People forfeited all the time when every debate affected elo. It's more that the type of people who forfeit tend to start one debate and then leave, so they never qualify to do rated debates.
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@Double_R
"We're Going After Criminals"
Right now the National Guard is being deployed to confront the rioters, so they'll go after at least some criminals. You might not approve of how, but the statement is true.
I didn't know the place to find them was in schools, churches or at the Home Depot.
Sure, illegal immigration is a civil violation, so not everyone who enters illegally is a criminal. But this is just stupid. Why wouldn't criminals go to schools, churches, or Home Depot? If police typically avoided those places under previous administrations, that would be the safest place for them to go, right? By your logic, Trump isn't a criminal, because he's been to at least two of those places.
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@21Pilots
It makes me frustrated and annoyed that nearly one third of the debates are just full forfeiture.
Put a minimum elo requirement on your debates or specifically challenge users who don't forfeit.
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@cristo71
Because leadership matters, and good leadership is neither common nor to be taken for granted.
At the end of the day the leadership comes down to which policies are implemented. I guess you could have a president who gives a good speech, but presidents who represent the median voters will consistently do better than swinging between extremes. I'd rather have less passionate speeches and less crazy policies.
in what is supposed to be a democratic republic. To what end?
The point of the "republic" part is to prevent populist leaders from seizing too much power. Same logic as term limits. There need to be checks on elected leaders, the question is what checks.
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@Mikal
If you're not going to participate this dp, we need at least something from you. Character really seems like the least you can do.
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@cristo71
What if a leader who won election by a landslide— that you and everyone you know voted for, who is seen as doing good things for the country, and whose replacement is a hot mess— falls prey to this scheme because of some crazy yahoo?
I think good leaders are more replaceable than bad leaders, because it's easy for a single politician to do a lot of damage. Way more common for a politician to do a uniquely bad gimmick than to come up with some brilliant plan that no one else could have come up with. If the guy who was elected in a landslide is following the leading economic theories, then why can't their replacement do the same?
Or, conversely, the person who goes to jail executing this scheme attains popularity and martyr status and gets elected to political office because of his sacrifice?
Well, part of the rules would be banning that person from office too.
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@cristo71
You are not worried about the cult of personality needed to support the person suggesting such an alteration to the Constitution ? Or assuming this scheme is codified, you are not concerned with the cult around a person sacrificing his own liberty to execute this provision?
I think cults of personality are a bigger concern when the subject holds a political office. Sure, some people will have cuts of personality, but they won't hold office.
We already have a mechanism to eject a politician from office— elections.
Sure, but if a politician and their party seizes power in the middle of their term, the voters don't have much recourse. Usually it takes a significant cult of personality before a power grab like that can happen.
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@cristo71
Why should a carve out around this protection be made?
I think it incentivizes politicians not to form cults of personality.
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@cristo71
Yes, this can be changed, but why should it be changed? And what should it be changed to instead?
Changed to allow legal career assassinations on the condition that the assassin goes to jail for the rest of their life. A single amendment would do the trick. I think my reasons for why have already been explained.
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@cristo71
It is unconstitutional, as it deprives a person of their right to self determination without due process.
Constitution can be changed.
It is undemocratic, as it deprives the electorate of their duly elected official.
The constitution, which you just defended, also overrides the will of the majority. You need checks on mob rule.
It is immoral, as it does all of the above at the whim of a single person of questionable sanity.
That's already true of presidential vetos. In this case at least the citizen has to put something on the line. Also not sure how that makes it "immoral" as opposed to "counterproductive" in your view. Plus, I'd rather hold politicians to a very stricter standard.
It is ineffective, as it assumes that government office is the only lever of power and influence a person might have.
It's a big lever but not the only one.
It is impractical, as the legal appeals process would come out in full force to counteract and delay such a move.
Not if the rules are written clearly.
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@Mharman
what was the thought process behind delaying those reads? Was it what you’ve already said, or is there more to it?
Basically what I said. Reads weren't accurate last game until page 20, and that's the only other time I tried this.
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@ILikePie5
@Mharman
@Mikal
My vote stays on Mikal until we get a full claim. Let's not allow him to scurry away here.
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I'll note that last game (literally the only other time I used this system), my early reads were way off. Almost everyone is ≈ rand. But I'd still like people to comment on my reads and hopefully give some more insight into their behavior.
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@Lunatic
@ILikePie5
@Mikal
@WyIted
@iamanabanana
Reads List 1.0
I’m assuming a 7v2 setup. Each player is assigned an estimated probability of being town based on how towny or scummy they are. The average probability of being town is 75%, since there are 6 town players left besides me and 2 scum players left.
Lunatic
- Town Lean (76.4%)
- Playing as Town: Castledp1, JFdp1, JFdp2
- Playing as Scum: Chessdp1, Chessdp2, Chessdp3
- #38, #47, #49 - TL - This comment indicated that Luna paid a good deal of attention to the posts he responded to, which I think is generally pro-town. Scum can joke around too, but they might be more likely to skim, especially if Wyled’s comment doesn’t look particularly opportunistic. Plus jumping around topics indicates a more natural and genuine train of thought.
- #40 - TL - Saying this almost as an afterthought indicates it’s probably not a strategic move.
Wylted
- Town Lean (76.0%)
- Playing as Town: JFdp1, JFdp2, CoDdp1
- Playing as Scum: Castledp1, GSdp1
- #24, #30 - TL - Wylted draws attention to himself here, which would be a risk as scum, and these thoughts read genuine overall. There’s also a bit of nuance jumping from one subject to another, which I think scum would tend to avoid.
- #31, #33 - TL - Changing his mind without being asked also seems genuine here. It could be a scum play but doesn’t seem as likely.
- #43 - TL - Insulting a player like this is a pretty big risk for scum to take.
- #63 - TL - I think not reading the original post is a town tell.
iamanabanana
- Null (75.0%)
- Playing as Town: Governorsdp1, Governorsdp2, Governorsdp3
- Playing as Scum: Wylteddp1, Wylteddp2
Mikal
- Null (75.0%)
- Playing as Town: JFdp1, Riddledp1, Riddledp2
- Playing as Scum: Ozarkdp1, Ozarkdp2, Ozarkdp3
ILikePie5
- Null (75.0%)
- Playing as Town: JFdp1, JFdp2, TRdp1
- Playing as Scum: TVdp1, TVdp2
- #60 - TL - This attempt at identifying a theme split seems genuine enough and not really aimed at getting town cred. Indicates a good deal of effort into thinking through possible mechanics.
Earth
- Scum Lean (74.9%)
- Playing as Town: CoDdp1, CoDdp2, CoDdp3
- Playing as Scum: RRV2dp1, RRV2dp2, RRV2dp3
- #23 - TL - Being slightly hostile like this right out the gate comes off as genuine, since it has little strategic advantage.
- #58 - TL - I agree with this, and there’s not a super strategic reason for Earth to defend Pie here as scum, especially since he could just post less which is his meta.
- #70 - SL - Post indicates that Earth has paid close attention to what can be in the game. I think that’s slightly more likely from scum, especially since Earth doesn’t tend to be a super active player.
Mharman
- Scum Lean (74.3%)
- Playing as Town: JFdp1, JFdp2, JFdp3
- Playing as Scum: CoDdp1, CoDdp2, CoDdp3
- #4, #5 - TL - I think that scum would be under more pressure for their first post and keep it simple, not instantly make a reference to religious literature before voting someone without a good excuse.
- #7 - TL - I don’t think scum would focus on looking into player activity like this, plus switching the vote very confidently.
- #12 - SL - I do think making a joke like this can be a way of “breaking the tension” as scum when posting a lot to avoid being scum read, but this is a very slight indicator.
- #14 - SL - I think it benefits scum here to put pressure on another player like this, especially since Mharman has already voted and arguably needs to justify it.
- #45, #46, #50, #57 - SL - A bit surface level, could be faking genuine conversation. In this case jumping topics isn’t towny since it doesn’t show a lot of thought into scum hunting.
- #51, #53 - TL - High effort here is towny, especially jumping from another subject, and I think Mharman’s reads were a bit less detailed as town.
- #93, #94 - TL - I think the read on me is fair if Mharman thought I didn’t have any reads written yet (and I did promise them before going back and realizing my pg 3 reads were inaccurate last game).
Casey_Risk
- Scum Lean (73.3%)
- Playing as Town: SKdp1, SKdp2, SKdp3
- Playing as Scum: Gunplaydp1, Gunplaydp2, Gunplaydp3
- #34 - SL - I think a town member would be slightly more likely to avoid trusting AI, but a scum member might want to give themselves plausible deniability for getting it wrong, or just not be super concerned with accuracy since they can decide on a claim later. Or scum might not even use AI but say they did hoping it sounds genuine.
- #71, #79 - TL - Given that Casey mentioned the signups page and nothing about WF’s first post, I think this indicates they haven’t paid too much attention to which roles are available for fake claims.
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In the interest of moving activity forward, reads incoming...
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@Mikal
I am going to be very in active this dp
Full claim then
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@Mharman
Sure I’ll wait a little, but I prefer you drop those relatively soon.
Fine, I'll post reads soon-ish.
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@Mharman
ive known him to be one that analyses every little post. The thing about town metas like that is that they are hard af to fake as scum, so it feels like a cop-out. Especially since throwing out the first scumread or lean of the game will always draw attention.
I told you, I have pages of reads for the first few pages, and I can post them now if you care so much. But you'll see them anyway when I post all my reads on page 20 or so.
Yes I know his reads were less accurate at the start last game, but that’s always a given, so not much of a need to delay.
Is it though? If I give information that's bordering on randomness, how is that better than just flipping a coin and accusing a player? Odds of players being scum is basically equal rn, so pressure should be applied equally. Also, once I accuse a player, I find it hard not to scum read their defensiveness, so it's probably best I wait.
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@Mharman
Maybe a tiny TL in Wylted and a tiny SL on Savant.
I have 2+ pages of reads, but there's a reason I'm not posting them yet.
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@whiteflame
Wait should votes be updated too or do the votes on banana go to zero?
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@whiteflame
@Mharman
Unvote VTL MikalFor activity
I'm down with that. Just looked over the last game and realized my reads were worse than random chance until inactives showed up.
VTL Mikal
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@ILikePie5
How often would you say games with 9 players have a third party or 3 scum instead of 2?
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@WyIted
just read op, he does not claim a simple theme split so my theory is still alive
I think Casey is referring to this part: "I'll try to avoid too much technical information and jargon in this game, mainly to make sure everyone can understand what I'm posting."
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@Casey_Risk
I mean, WF quite explicitly said this wasn't the case in the OP.
Where?
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Sorry guys, I've been busy. I'm going to read through the first three pages and give reads. They were roughly accurate before, but you can expect the estimates to be very conservative as they were in the last game.
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@WyIted
49 Japanese patriots who have United States citizenship.
How would the Japanese patriots benefit from this? How would they know who the Manchurian candidate is yet no one else does?
the Manchurian candidates when in power can just release them
Well, someone could go to jail to remove the Manchurian candidate from office.
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@ADreamOfLiberty
and what? Threaten to put somebody in jail for life? :)
Put them in jail but keep the politician in office, yeah. That ruins the blackmail.
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@ADreamOfLiberty
If they can do it after election and force a new election it will just be used for extortion.i.e. "do this for my community or you're out".
Well, you ban that the same as banning blackmail. Politician can just go to the police if they are threatened like that. Also it doesn't result in a new election, the party replaces them with the next person on the pre-published list.
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@WyIted
How would you deal with the issue of something just needing to be done for the health of the nation, even if it is unpopular such as what Hitler did to the Jews?
That person has to get elected first, so that scenario only makes sense if they lie to get elected. Generally, I think politicians lying has a bad net effect, so I'd rather reduce it than incentivize it.
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@RemyBrown
try it locally first (and the penalty should be death for the volunteering sacrifice to save money).
I don't think most countries would allow a local jurisdiction to implement a system like this, especially one that executes people for this.
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@RemyBrown
every politician becomes corrupt
Well, not equally. There are ways to make it worse or better.
You need 3/4 of the government. But then how do you overcome curroption?
No idea how to get the votes for it. Very unlikely to get implemented, but I thought it was an interesting idea. I suppose it might be useful if a new country formed and was looking for ideas.
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@ADreamOfLiberty
@RemyBrown
My sole concern is economic because my tax money is more important to me than a prisoner's life.
Then it's in your interest to get rid of corrupt politicians and encourage peaceful transfers of power. Think of it as an investment.
The ability to filter is the ability to select.
Well there's a difference between vetoing a few people and selecting one out of thousands.
The powerful would simply corrupt whatever process you have. The only solution is constitutional structure and personal incentive.
Well yeah, it would have to be part of the constitution. Not really more corruptible than other requirements.
an insane person might if the community service was doing drugs
If they're that outwardly insane, I doubt they'd have the skills to run a good campaign. You can be a little crazy, but you need planning and shrewdness.
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@ADreamOfLiberty
So what you're really talking about is giving power to minorities that feel extremely strongly.
There's that, but I only trust minority factions to the extent they can "filter out the worst," which I think is generally easier to do than picking the "best" person. Mainly, I think there should be filters for politicians who are uniquely corrupt. "Tests of virtue," if you will. Another policy I thought of having was requiring all politicians to anonymously donate a kidney before even running. A selfish person wouldn't give up a kidney not even knowing if they could get elected, but someone who actually cares about the country would probably be willing to do it. Maybe also require 5,000 hours of community service before running for office. Again, something a good person wouldn't have a problem doing anyway.
Look how many times a popular policy gets implemented poorly because the people doing it are incompetent or corrupt. If democracy is giving the majority what they want, most countries fail even that standard.
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@ADreamOfLiberty
Alex Jones as at least 100 listeners who would spend life in prison to make him president.
You could remove a hundred others from office and it won't turn Alex Jones from unelectable to electable. The center right would find someone.
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@ADreamOfLiberty
Whatever you think is crazy, remember that remy can beat you.
I mean I knew Remy wasn't going to call my plan inhumane lol
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